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[squidyj]

Probably worth moving on to who else to vote out at this point

I'm not wholly convinced of KK - if he was the non active HHA as Ezekel was saying, that only accounts for the activity on night 3. What happened on night 1 then? I would assume a non active role wouldn't have a night time action, and that their only course of action at that point is to try to get evicted by the HHA. So why did Kalor get notified night 1? What happened?

i think the lost member is nin and one of KK and Haly are mafia along with Franconp. That's the way i see the game right now and based on that we have a few options for how to lynch today, I don't see passing one of our lynches as a good idea, it just puts the mafia a night kill ahead.

ouro+nin -> KK or Haly
ouro+KK -> Haly if KK is town otherwise nin
ouro+Haly -> KK if Haly si town otherwise nin.

In any situation I think Franconp should be the last to go.

 

[EzekelRAGE]

...this is why I didn't claim my role in chat. C'mon.

It's already been said, but you shoudlve posted a fake power role in chat. Don't see how what nin posted has anything to do with you not posting in chat a fake power role.

 

[Ourobolus]

It's already been said, but you shoudlve posted a fake power role in chat. Don't see how what nin posted has anything to do with you not posting in chat a fake power role.

Yeah, I get that. Again. I'm apparently not the brightest when it comes to Mafia.
But you guys are seriously considering that BOTH nin and I are mafia, and in the same chat?

 

[tomakasatnav]

Oh boy, I've got a lot to catch up from this weekend

 

[squidyj]

I made a slightly cryptic comment about withholding my reasonings for thinking Nin was the lost teammate and nobody mentioned it, nobody jumped on it, nobody bandwagoned me. That pattern of behaviour suggests that there's no mafia trying to jump on this and get an innocent nin lynched and nin isn't so dirty yet as for mafia to believe they are better off just bussing him.

So the one point I did make clear in my original suspicion of nin was I felt that a lot of heat that was on him on day 3 seemed to evaporate once day 4 arrived. If you look at things like voting pattern it's sort of odd honestly.

Of course his recent wishy-washy behaviour with respect to Ourobolus is incredibly suspicious because honestly if you're town how do you not believe Ouro is mafia with the number of slip-ups and contradictions he's made at this point? Yet Nin believed ouro's initial claim and is now fence-sitting? Doesn't exactly scream town to me.

 

[kingkitty]

i think the lost member is nin and one of KK and Haly are mafia along with Franconp. That's the way i see the game right now and based on that we have a few options for how to lynch today, I don't see passing one of our lynches as a good idea, it just puts the mafia a night kill ahead.

ouro+nin -> KK or Haly
ouro+KK -> Haly if KK is town otherwise nin
ouro+Haly -> KK if Haly si town otherwise nin.

In any situation I think Franconp should be the last to go.

Ezekiel's argument against hinges on me trying to make myself a huge target to mafia. If I'm not the lost partner, then...as mafia all I have done is

1) Throw Hobodo under the bus

but then in the same day

2) Throw all suspicion upon me as I try to save Hobodobo at the last second.

Doesn't make much sense as mafia strategy.

Add onto to the likelihood that there's 4 mafia total in this game, and you're basically voting for me on the assumption that half of the mafia were chilling in Mazre's gossip chat.

 

[squidyj]

Ezekiel's argument against hinges on me trying to make myself a huge target to mafia. If I'm not the lost partner, then...as mafia all I have done is

1) Throw Hobodo under the bus

but then in the same day

2) Throw all suspicion upon me as I try to save Hobodobo at the last second.

Doesn't make much sense as mafia strategy.

Add onto to the likelihood that there's 4 mafia total in this game, and you're basically voting for me on the assumption that half of the mafia were chilling in Mazre's gossip chat.

the point is I am convinced because of early actions that there is a mafia between you and Haly. if we have to kill the vanilla town to get to the mafia then that sucks but we don't really have a better way to narrow things down and it makes for good strategy. (this is the part where franconp tries to compare this to his plan to lynch rnh as guaranteed town in order to gain nothing)

 

[kingkitty]

the point is I am convinced because of early actions that there is a mafia between you and Haly. if we have to kill the vanilla town to get to the mafia then that sucks but we don't really have a better way to narrow things down and it makes for good strategy. (this is the part where franconp tries to compare this to his plan to lynch rnh as guaranteed town in order to gain nothing)

I already showed you a better way to narrow things down.

My behavior is weirdly inconsistent for mafia.

And I think it's a bit of an assumption to say that half of the mafia are chilling in Mazre's gossip chat.

 

[squidyj]

I already showed you a better way to narrow things down.

My behavior is weirdly inconsistent for mafia.

And I think it's a bit of an assumption to say that half of the mafia are chilling in Mazre's gossip chat.

if half of mafia was 5 people in a statistically unlikely configuration then that might be problematic, as it is i'm not willing to go into the game of guessing and second-guessing kark's layout. Trying to intuit how he would have laid things out is simply a red herring to me.

 

[kingkitty]

if half of mafia was 5 people in a statistically unlikely configuration then that might be problematic, as it is i'm not willing to go into the game of guessing and second-guessing kark's layout. Trying to intuit how he would have laid things out is simply a red herring to me.

Well with that logic, what's to say there isn't three mafia in a gossip chat?

The point is, we have to make educated guesses. And my educated guess it that there are 4 mafia, and that it's unlikely that half of them are in Mazre's chat.

So you look at that one part, and see that's it's a bit unlikely. Then add onto my contradicting behavior in how I treated Hobodobo.

AND you don't even think I'm the lost partner!

 

[RetroMG]

Having a super busy Sunday, so I'm only barely managing to keep up with the thread. (Hoping to have time to get caught up in an hour or two.)

I do have one question, which is mostly a curiosity, but who knows, it might turn something up.

Ouro, you haven't posted once in the Gossip thread since I came into the game - all of our posts are from when Foshy was in the game. Any particular reason you've gone so quiet on that end?

 

[squidyj]

Well with that logic, what's to say there isn't three mafia in a gossip chat?

The point is, we have to make educated guesses. And my educated guess it that there are 4 mafia, and that it's unlikely that half of them are in Mazre's chat.

So you look at that one part, and see that's it's a bit unlikely. Then add onto my contradicting behavior in how I treated Hobodobo.

AND you don't even think I'm the lost partner!

well the fact that everyone around mazre is dead but you says there's not 3 in that particular circle and the fact that I have strong suspicions about who other mafia are says that that sort of distribution is unlikely unless i'm very very wrong.

 

[kingkitty]

well the fact that everyone around mazre is dead but you says there's not 3 in that particular circle and the fact that I have strong suspicions about who other mafia are says that that sort of distribution is unlikely unless i'm very very wrong.

so because people around me are dead? well that's because day 2 or 3, the village decided to evict freakzilla.

and that Hobodob was outed as mafia was evicted on day 4.

and that Mazre was killed by mafia for outing Hobodobo.

 

[RetroMG]

Ouro, you haven't posted once in the Gossip thread since I came into the game - all of our posts are from when Foshy was in the game.

Should have been your. Darn the inability to edit.

 

[squidyj]

so because people around me are dead? well that's because day 2 or 3, the village decided to evict freakzilla.

and that Hobodob was outed as mafia was evicted on day 4.

and that Mazre was killed by mafia for outing Hobodobo.

what i said wasn't a topic for discussion or an argument as to your guilt, it was a simple statement about how it's physically impossible for there to be 3 mafia in mazre's gossip circle.

 

[Ourobolus]

Having a super busy Sunday, so I'm only barely managing to keep up with the thread. (Hoping to have time to get caught up in an hour or two.)

I do have one question, which is mostly a curiosity, but who knows, it might turn something up.

Ouro, you haven't posted once in the Gossip thread since I came into the game - all of our posts are from when Foshy was in the game. Any particular reason you've gone so quiet on that end?

I honestly hadn't checked until we got on this line of discussion (now I realize you can set up email alerts). But it looks like there wasn't much of anything substantive. Just the same stuff nin has been suspicious of in the public thread (Timeaisis) and you mentioning your birthday. And your reasoning for your Hobohodo actions, which made sense to me.

Spoiler

happy belated birthday

 

[kingkitty]

what i said wasn't a topic for discussion or an argument as to your guilt, it was a simple statement about how it's physically impossible for there to be 3 mafia in mazre's gossip circle.

so you're saying you made an educated guess?

well in my educated guess, it's also unlikely to have 2 mafia in the same gossip chat.

 

[squidyj]

so you're saying you made an educated guess?

well in my educated guess, it's also unlikely to have 2 mafia in the same gossip chat.

what are you even talking about? I think you might have lost it dude.

 

[kingkitty]

I'm also talking about before we knew the death layout. Such as in the beginning.

At the beginning in the game, you wouldn't instantly think "theres three mafia in the same gossip chat"

and I think it's also wise to think "there probably isn't half of mafia in the gossip chat".

That's all I'm trying to say.

 

[kingkitty]

what are you even talking about? I think you might have lost it dude.

You're misunderstanding what I said.

 

[Ourobolus]

Well nin and I are both HHA, so it stands to reason that you and Hobo can both be HHA, right?

/sarcasm

 

[squidyj]

I'm also talking about before we knew the death layout. Such as in the beginning.

At the beginning in the game, you wouldn't instantly think "theres three mafia in the same gossip chat"

and I think it's also wise to think "there probably isn't half of mafia in the gossip chat".

That's all I'm trying to say.

I'm not making any claims about the layout, I'm simply making the claim that there's a mafia between you and Haly and we need to get him evicted.

 

[kingkitty]

I'm not making any claims about the layout, I'm simply making the claim that there's a mafia between you and Haly and we need to get him evicted.

I'm making the claim that you're not making an educated guess.

 

[Darryl]

Having a super busy Sunday, so I'm only barely managing to keep up with the thread. (Hoping to have time to get caught up in an hour or two.)

I do have one question, which is mostly a curiosity, but who knows, it might turn something up.

Ouro, you haven't posted once in the Gossip thread since I came into the game - all of our posts are from when Foshy was in the game. Any particular reason you've gone so quiet on that end?

it's not like posting in there says much about anything tbh. i tend to forget about this game when the day phase ends myself.

 

[RetroMG]

I honestly hadn't checked until we got on this line of discussion (now I realize you can set up email alerts). But it looks like there wasn't much of anything substantive. Just the same stuff nin has been suspicious of in the public thread (Timeaisis) and you mentioning your birthday. And your reasoning for your Hobohodo actions, which made sense to me.

Spoiler

happy belated birthday

Thanks, lol. And that's a reasonable answer.

 

[squidyj]

I'm making the claim that you're not making an educated guess.

so you disagree with my claim?

 

[Razmos]

so you're saying you made an educated guess?

well in my educated guess, it's also unlikely to have 2 mafia in the same gossip chat.

Unlikely unless one of them was initially town and became Mafia which we know can happen (and probably has), this kind of thinking is just going around in circles.

 

[kingkitty]

so you disagree with my claim?

No, I disagree with your thoughts I should be even in the equation, because it's based on the assumption that half of mafia were in Mazre's gossip chat.

And that my behavior towards Hobodobo somehow made sense as mafia strategy, which it doesn't!

 

[Ourobolus]

Unlikely unless one of them was initially town and became Mafia which we know can happen (and probably has), this kind of thinking is just going around in circles.

Well we don't really know that. You're assuming that the secret partner has a "town" alignment before he or she is found out. Which is odd to me. Not saying it isn't the case, but still.

 

[Ourobolus]

And actually, if that is the case, it calls basically everyone into question, really.

 

[kingkitty]

Unlikely unless one of them was initially town and became Mafia which we know can happen (and probably has), this kind of thinking is just going around in circles.

That sleeper mafia was never town. Lets make that clear. Sleeper mafia knows he needs to be mafia. He knows he needs to get evicted by the mafia.

So yes, it's unlikely for two mafia to be in the same gossip chat.

 

[squidyj]

No, I disagree with your thoughts I should be even in the equation, because it's based on the assumption that half of mafia were in Mazre's gossip chat.

And that my behavior towards Hobodobo somehow made sense as mafia strategy, which it doesn't!

so then you must be convinced that Haly is mafia yet you haven't shown it this game at all. Based on the information at hand if you're town you should be 100% convinced that Haly is mafia. You should have been 100% convinced for a long time in fact, yet I don't recall you pressuring Haly very much if at all. Why haven't you been helping town with the information you held if you're really innocent?

 

[Haly]

Traitors usually have the town alignment even if they aren't "town", so that if they get investigated it isn't an immediate tipoff.

Otherwise they'd just be a very limited Mafia that sometimes consumes a night kill.

 

[kingkitty]

Well actually, I don't really know for sure if sleeper mafia needs to become town. I suppose we'll find out how that role works sooner or later.

 

[kingkitty]

so then you must be convinced that Haly is mafia yet you haven't shown it this game at all. Based on the information at hand if you're town you should be 100% convinced that Haly is mafia. You should have been 100% convinced for a long time in fact, yet I don't recall you pressuring Haly very much if at all. Why haven't you been helping town with the information you held if you're really innocent?

I actually suggested RobotNinjaHornets or Haly (I don't think mafia will be right next to each other).

I also suggested franconp to investigate Haly tonight, no matter what.

You missed my posts.

 

[Ourobolus]

Traitors usually have the town alignment even if they aren't "town", so that if they get investigated it isn't an immediate tipoff.

Otherwise they'd just be a very limited Mafia that sometimes consumes a night kill.

Right, but so far we don't have a cop, right? I'm convinced that it doesn't exist at this point (or else you'd think half of the discussions we are having are moot), so the alignment investigation doesn't make sense.

 

[kingkitty]

Well actually, I don't really know for sure if sleeper mafia needs to become town.

*needs to become mafia

gosh darn no edit rule

 

[Razmos]

Traitors usually have the town alignment even if they aren't "town", so that if they get investigated it isn't an immediate tipoff.

Otherwise they'd just be a very limited Mafia that sometimes consumes a night kill.

This is what I was going to say, if they were investigated before they were turned into a mafia I very much doubt their role would have given them away. I can see them being a stock generic villager until they got turned.

 

[RobotNinjaHornets]

Taking out King. If I'm wrong, then that puts a spotlight sorta on Haly for activity day 1. Unless we found out HHA has action roles they can perform other than evictions at night and they looked at someone in that area. But that seems unlikely.

Why does that seem unlikely? Last game we had 2 role blockers and an investigator, only 1 standard mafia.

For all we know, there could be another HHA aligned investigator who checked out Haly, Kalor, Mazre or KK night 1. There hasn't been anything to imply otherwise, has there?

 

[Haly]

Basically, a role of "SLEEPER VILLAGER THIS GUY IS MUY SUSPICIOUS" would defeat the point even in a game without a Cop. As we have an investigator, the Sleeper probably shows up as Ordinary Villager or something similarly innocuous until triggered.

 

[squidyj]

The exact phrase from the pm is "You also have another partner who is unknown to you, but they do know who you are. "
If mafia targets them it's really just the mafia learning about their teammate and nothing changes for that guy, so he probably does not appear as Ordinary Villager when checked at any point during the game.

 

[squidyj]

I will say that the structure of that role leads me to suspect we might actually have more mafia than we expect because it's sort of like a nerfed mafia where other mafia might waste a night kill on him or accidentally vote him out thinking he's town. It's like a compromise between putting 6 full mafia which would be OP with this many players and only 5 which would be slightly weak for mafia.

 

[EzekelRAGE]

Why does that seem unlikely? Last game we had 2 role blockers and an investigator, only 1 standard mafia.

For all we know, there could be another HHA aligned investigator who checked out Haly, Kalor, Mazre or KK night 1. There hasn't been anything to imply otherwise, has there?

Investigation role would be useless for HHA since most of the claimed roles for town have been very power lacking other than fran's role. If they have a roleblock, they have yet to use it on fran it seems?

 

[EzekelRAGE]

Also, I said unlikely, not impossible.

 

[squidyj]

Why does that seem unlikely? Last game we had 2 role blockers and an investigator, only 1 standard mafia.

For all we know, there could be another HHA aligned investigator who checked out Haly, Kalor, Mazre or KK night 1. There hasn't been anything to imply otherwise, has there?

it's possible but I find it unlikely, ultimately mafia killed mazre and kalor out of that group, kalor was beyond suspicion and mazre definitely called out some stuff against mafia and was generally a good town throughout the game. I think they killed off mazre because they were scared but the fact that they haven't touched anyone else in that area could be random chance or it could be an organized effort to allow their mafia in the area to continue hiding behind the remaining townies there.

 

[RobotNinjaHornets]

The exact phrase from the pm is "You also have another partner who is unknown to you, but they do know who you are. "
If mafia targets them it's really just the mafia learning about their teammate and nothing changes for that guy, so he probably does not appear as Ordinary Villager when checked at any point during the game.

But the inactive HHA wouldn't have any eviction powers, would he? Even though he knows he's HHA aligned, he'd want to be brought into the HHA fold as I'd assume he still counts as a town role in terms of player counts up until then, given he can' nightt evict, given how night evictions work

Investigation role would be useless for HHA since most of the claimed roles for town have been very power lacking other than fran's role. If they have a roleblock, they have yet to use it on fran it seems?

Yeah, I was writing off role block as not existing, but investigator might be useful for them to have double the power to find the inactive HHA

 

[squidyj]

I'll add that kalor just had that one unexplained action. if I was mafia I would have killed in that area and used an investigation on another target in that area so as to further frame townies in the area.

I just don't think the idea that was an incoming target rather than an outgoing usage adds up.

 

[RobotNinjaHornets]

it's possible but I find it unlikely, ultimately mafia killed mazre and kalor out of that group, kalor was beyond suspicion and mazre definitely called out some stuff against mafia and was generally a good town throughout the game. I think they killed off mazre because they were scared but the fact that they haven't touched anyone else in that area could be random chance or it could be an organized effort to allow their mafia in the area to continue hiding behind the remaining townies there.

The most obvious answer is that either Haly or KK are HHA, but I'm just going down other avenues for now. Better to start thinking about it early just in case, you know? I mean it's possible they killed Kalor just to throw suspicion on those two (we did it quite a few times last game). Not saying that's definitely what happened, far from it, but I do think discussing as many options as possible is a good idea.

 

[squidyj]

The most obvious answer is that either Haly or KK are HHA, but I'm just going down other avenues for now. Better to start thinking about it early just in case, you know? I mean it's possible they killed Kalor just to throw suspicion on those two (we did it quite a few times last game). Not saying that's definitely what happened, far from it, but I do think discussing as many options as possible is a good idea.

I think there were better ways to frame those guys if they're both town, as I've stated above.

 

[Ourobolus]

So we are voting Haly and nin1000, correct?