Anyone else think PSP is gonna destroy DS in sales?

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MAZYORA

MAZYORA

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Anyone else think that PSP is gonna outsell DS the way PSX outsold Saturn? As inovative as DS is and all the exclucives it has, the PSP is just so much more powerful. I don't see many people picking DS over PSP. I personally think the DS will rock, and I will buy one at launch, but I just don't think it'll win the handheld wars.
 
Every f'n week I swear...

The Saturn/PS analogy is wrong in the sense that PlayStation was much more inexpensive.

It all depends on pricing, battery life, word-of-mouth etc.

IF the PSP is though of as a "cool" gadget, it might do better. But if it fails to entice the early adopter gadgeteers, it has a problem.

IF the DS has brilliant launch games, it might do better. But if it fails to entice the hardcore gamers and the kid audience, it has a problem.
 
Unless drastic changes/new information regarding both systems arrive before launch, I think there'll be enough N-fan support to equal any PSP sales for a while.

Not to mention the appearent head-start the DS will have.
 
PSP is gonna bomb (By Sony fanboys expectations). And if DS is anything over 129.99 at launch, it's gonna bomb at launch too.
 
Hells no. The NDS will outsell the PSP, and the GBA will outsell them both until it's obvious that the NDS is becoming the next standard (which would probably be around the time the NDS drops to 99 bucks or so or Pokemon DS is released)


Doesn't take a soothsayer to figure that out :)
 
GBA > PSP > DS when it's all said and done. The PSP won't bury the DS but it'll have a significant engouh lead over it to please Sony.
 
In the beginning, not a chance in hell. The DS is backwards compatible so there will be a ton of people that upgrade just like when the GBA SP was released. Also, there is an existing handheld market for them to sell to.

The PSP has the problem of trying to create a market for a mature handheld gamer. That and the price will initially be prohibitive. However, I do expect that the PSP will eventually win out and become "the" handheld gaming system.
 
GBA will remain on top, but I think PSP could move into second place (though, they are different generations in a way). I don't believe DS will be anything huge...
 
The PSP has the problem of trying to create a market for a mature handheld gamer.
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I fail to see many of my PS2 owning friends getting excited by the prospect of having gaming on the go. That might be one of the biggest hurdles for Sony. Their masses are casuals (I'm not trying to say it's wrong/bad), as opposed to the slightly more "gamer" audience that Nintendo has (in addition to kids).

But anyway, in the PSP/DS situation I think they have two very different audiences, both which will make their respective machines successes.
 
Not to mention that one of Sony's closest partners (and a main reason for the success of the PS & PS2), Square/Enix, doesn't seem to really believe in what Sony is trying to do with the PSP. I think that lack of support, if even only temporary, will be a factor in the PSP never really gaining ground on the NDS.
 
It's impossible to say, but at the moment I'd have to say the DS has the GBA's momentum to push it straight into the mainstream. The DS' success is pretty much a given, as long as the cost isn't too prohibitive (and i really doubt it will be). The thing will pretty much guaranteed be a virtual sellout through this whole holiday season just from people upgrading their GBAs alone.

The PSP, on the other hand, has several distinct disadvantages like having to build a lineup from scratch, having secondary features (video, music playback) that are somewhat unfriendly to consumers, along with what will almost certainly be a higher pricepoint and having a definite issue in selling itself to an age group that just doesn't have as much time to play portable games.

Right now I favor the DS over the PSP's chances of success, but you never know, maybe I'll be surprised. I do figure it'll be the most successful non-Nintendo handheld ever, but that's not really saying much when you think about it.
 
At this point I'm tempted to say yes. I believe that no matter what the flaws of the PSP are (they seem to be limited to price and battery life at the moment) it will still be a success. Sony has so much freaking mindshare it's not even funny. Consumers will overlook the PSP's flaws the same way that they overlooked the PS2's at launch. Sony has a grip on consumers. They will hype the hell out of the PSP to the point where people will happily pay $299 for it just because it is a hot-ticket item.

I don't buy the whole "casuals don't want handhelds so PSP won't sell" argument. Casuals didn't want consoles either until Sony made them want one. I predict that they will do the same with the PSP.
 
The pricing is key here. I think the DS would be nothing more than a memory if the PSP was headed down the 200 dollar price range. However, at 300 dollars I don't see how the two would even be competing in the same market. The PSP will certainly have PDA and MP3 makers sweating.

The GBA SP will still sit comfortably at the top of the portable market for a couple more holidays at the least.
 
ge-man said:
The PSP will certainly have PDA and MP3 makers sweating.
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I'm pretty sure it was announced that the PSP will only playback the ATRAC music format therefor rendering that function useless. Of course I may be mistaken but I think Sony announced that in some PR letter.
 
I think they both are gonna bomb hard. Some companies are already having a hard time selling games on the current systems and stores are allocating less space to videogames overall. Trying to fit two new systems into the grand scheme of things is gonna be hard.

I want to play the games that both the PSP and DS have, but not to the degree that I'd buy another system. I think Nintendo and Sony would be better off cancelling their new handhelds and bringing those games out on current systems.
 
TekunoRobby said:
I'm pretty sure it was announced that the PSP will only playback the ATRAC music format therefor rendering that function useless. Of course I may be mistaken but I think Sony announced that in some PR letter.
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Yeah, that's true. Really, the bottom line to me is that the PSP will just not be in the same market that the DS will end up in--it will appeal to the types that have made PDA and MP3 players popular. Whether it's a success is not known. I don't care what kind of mindshare Sony has or how slick its products are--they can't sell every idea (PSX is a recent example).
 
TekunoRobby said:
My friend shares this exact same opinion. Actually he's convinced that they both will do poorly in sales.
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Right now that's my current position on it. Both systems have their barriers--the PSP's pricing and battery life will be sticking point. The DS is hampered by antiquated graphics and an awkard design--I've tried resisting comparisons to the Virtual Boy, but I think many people will see it in that light regardless of the execution. The Game Boy is still safe for now.
 
Really, the bottom line to me is that the PSP will just not be in the same market that the DS will end up in--it will appeal to the types that have made PDA and MP3 players popular.
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I think this even means harder times for the PSP. Sony can't push the price very low because that would cannibalize it's own player & PDA sales.

The PSP can't compete with iPod as a music player and UMD means that you end up buying same movies twice (if you want them on DVD, and who doesn't want a film on DVD rather than just on a portable) - thus making it "a games machine that does more". Convergence IS a double edged sword.

Also the HC Early Adopter Tech market is quite small. There are... what, 3 million iPods sold? That's not that much when compared to GBA :)

However I do not believe that the PSP would bomb, just like DS won't. There already is a convinced audience for both. But how the massmarket will react, that's something that can't be predicted with the information we currently have...
 
Both seem extremely boring to me right now. I think going to take at least year from when they launch to seem interesting to me. PSP doesnt have software and DS seems to be using 3d graphics the most in games, looking at 64 textures was painful enough first time.
 
Keio said:
I think this even means harder times for the PSP. Sony can't push the price very low because that would cannibalize it's own player & PDA sales.
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I doubt that is a concern. They are about as concerned about that as they are concerned about PS2 undercutting sales of Sony's higher end DVD players.
 
madara said:
Both seem extremely boring to me right now. I think going to take at least year from when they launch to seem interesting to me. PSP doesnt have software and DS seems to be using 3d graphics the most in games, looking at 64 textures was painful enough first time.
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If you mean launch you may have a point. If you mean in development, there is plenty.
 
Lost Weekend said:
Not to mention that one of Sony's closest partners (and a main reason for the success of the PS & PS2), Square/Enix, doesn't seem to really believe in what Sony is trying to do with the PSP. I think that lack of support, if even only temporary, will be a factor in the PSP never really gaining ground on the NDS.
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SE is the only company that isn't supporting the PSP right now (and even Sony has them listed on their official site as having a game coming). But if you look at the announced lists so far for each game, Sony already has more overall support than the DS. I really don't think SE is "that" much of an advantage, atleast not on the same level as they are with consoles, when it comes to handhelds. This is due to handhelds never getting Square-Enix's big guns. They get ports, remakes, and spinoffs of their big series but not the really big guns which are the big sellers.

Right now though like I said if you're just basing this off overall support. The PSP is looking more healthy.
 
DS seems to be using 3d graphics the most in games, looking at 64 textures was painful enough first time.
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Well, the DS lacks filtering abilities, so it actually looks worse in that regard.

It certainly seems to be above N64 in some ways, though. Metroid Prime Hunters actually runs at 60 fps, shockingly enough...
 
They are about as concerned about that as they are concerned about PS2 undercutting sales of Sony's higher end DVD players.
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I believe the market for portable entertainment is different - there is no "high end" similar to home HIFI systems. I may be wrong, though :)
 
I think if Sony really hypes the multimedia aspects of the PSP, it could do well. As is, I suspect alot of consumers are looking at the system and going "eh, it's just a portable PS2". Which while quite the technical feat in and of itself, the average PS2 owner is likely content playing his games at home. I know Sony has stated that the system won't be just a port-over machine, but unless those making the games are willing to dump alot of development cost into the once low-cost handheld market, they're probably going to lean towards converting games, at least initially. What really sales the GBA for me, is that I simply can't play the types of games it offers on consoles. While the three main contenders at home place alot of emphasis on graphical quality, most GBA titles place the emphasis on straight-up gameplay with graphics from a SNES era most of us look upon fondly. Don't get me wrong, there's ALOT of terrible GBA games out there, but there's also been some amazing ones.

Frankly, I think Sony would have been better off marketing the PSP as more of a nextgen Walkman that happens to have great gaming capability. But the closed nature of UMD, ATRAC-only audio support, lack of a digitizer, and alot of other factors prevent the system from really being a MP3 player/PDA replacement. If they really wanted to give Nintendo a run for its money, they should've gone all out and made it a multimedia powerhouse.

As for the DS, I'm tempted to say it's too soon for Nintendo to be releasing another handheld system and that alot of the motivation behind it was Nintendo's fear of the upcoming PSP and an uncertainty that the GBA would be able to compete. Personally, I feel such doubt is unfounded, and foresee the GBA remaining the top-selling system for awhile to come, but what the hell do I know...
 
Initially, the PSP won't sell as much as the DS, but just like Sony's PlayStation, the older hipster/tech crowd will be all over it and that, in turn, will influence the masses.

Personally, I think the DS is going to get Dreamcast-ed. Do you think specific PSP details are ambigious on purpose? The elusive nature of the PSP is part of Sony's hype-machine that will discourage may buyers outside of the Nintendo fanbase.
 
JC10001 said:
I don't buy the whole "casuals don't want handhelds so PSP won't sell" argument. Casuals didn't want consoles either until Sony made them want one. I predict that they will do the same with the PSP.
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I don't think 'casuals don't want handhelds' is the argument at all. Just look at the GB family's sales and you can see plainly that casuals love handhelds. They've just proven (quite a few times, mind you) that they don't want expensive handhelds with bad battery life.
 
Lost Weekend said:
I don't think 'casuals don't want handhelds' is the argument at all. Just look at the GB family's sales and you can see plainly that casuals love handhelds. They've just proven (quite a few times, mind you) that they don't want expensive handhelds with bad battery life.
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I don't think you can really base other companies success (or lack of) in this market compared to Sony. What you have in Sony is a company that completely understands their fanbase and knows how to get them interested in it.
 
I don't think you can really base other companies success (or lack of) in this market compared to Sony. What you have in Sony is a company that completely understands their fanbase and knows how to get them interested in it.
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Like Minidisc and ATRAC have proved? And when people dig up the Virtual Boy, there are also instances like Betamax :P
 
to be honest, I think the people that buy the PSP wont buy it for the games, but for the other functions, such as MP3 and PDA. I just find it really hard to see a teenager or adult playing in the street, they are more likely to use the other functions. This is the reason that Nintendo have been so successful in the handheld market. You see children everywhere with a GBA in their hand. Personally, I think the DS will do better, especially with the price. I would love to see Nintendo beat Sony with the DS and so far, it seems good, they are not repeating the same mistakes with this as they did with the N64. They have to put in mind that Sony is proabably one of the biggest and strongest companbies out their with a truck load of support and a very well structured marketing and if they let Sony dominate the handheld gaming industry, just the same way as they did with the home console industry, then Nintendo are gonna have to start to eat their way for survival as a company.
 
Yeah Solidsnake, but you can say the same for any company with a huge fanbase in a particular market. Let's use Nintendo for an example :)

Seriously, I don't predict absolute failure for Sony in the handheld market. PSP will certainly be the most successful of Nintendo's competitors here, but they're pricing themselves into a niche. If Sony were introducing an economical handheld with great battery life and all the support that the Sony name brings, then we would have a major battle on our hands. Maybe after their initial experience in this market, they'll go that route one day. Until then...
 
Lost Weekend said:
Yeah Solidsnake, but you can say the same for any company with a huge fanbase in a particular market. Let's use Nintendo for an example :)

Seriously, I don't predict absolute failure for Sony in the handheld market. PSP will certainly be the most successful of Nintendo's competitors here, but they're pricing themselves into a niche.
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The question is though, has Nintendo been doing everything right in the handheld market? Or are there people who're just waiting for someone to come along and do what Nintendo hasn't been doing right? I think that's what Sony is betting on with the PSP. They're going to take up what Nintendo hasn't been doing right (one of which is been pushing the hardware singificantly). I've pointed this out in several threads, but GBA actual software sales are pretty bad when you compare it to the amount of hardware sold, to the point that the system only has 4 games that have sold a million in Japan (and they all come from the same franchise so it shouldn't be hard to pick which one it is). This could be an advantage Sony has over Nintendo when it comes to developer support if they get software sales on the PSP moving extremely well.

Yah Sony could potentially be pricing themself into a niche. But I think Nintendo's in a much more serious position of putting themself into a small niche by how they're pushing the DS. As of now I don't think there's been enough shown on what they've hyped the DS on (being revolutionary) to actually sell it. The games just don't back up the hype at this point. The possibilities are there, but the games aren't at this point. Plus you have to ask yourself is it what most people are even going to want if it does work?
 
psycho_snake said:
to be honest, I think the people that buy the PSP wont buy it for the games, but for the other functions, such as MP3 and PDA. I just find it really hard to see a teenager or adult playing in the street, they are more likely to use the other functions. This is the reason that Nintendo have been so successful in the handheld market. You see children everywhere with a GBA in their hand.
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I think it's exactly the opposite. People will buy it for the games. There will be almost NO movies and people won't jump to Sony's proprietary audio until the userbase is sufficient to cause the movie studios to release significant content on UMD. As far as the audio goes, not going with MP3 will probably end up being a HUGE mistake.

However, I think most people will consider it a games device first, with the bonus of offering other functions as well.
 
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