Alright, since there aren't that many posts, and I feel like we should push some non-Topo flavoured discussion, I'm going to examine Enker's behaviour since the start of the game, offering my feelings and a general read of him from the details.
Here we go:
Party time.
Also, I am one of those GAF blocked at work folks, so its posting at night (EST) during the week - if youre wondering what happened to me. Nothing shady about that, no sir.
First post he made, Clarifies his inactivity. Fair enough.
What I would like to know is, if KGB are in both a mission and headquarters, do they get 2 kills in one night?
Confirming rules. Expected in the early phase.
I like the idea of democratic voting. As was mentioned, if there are 6 KGB then allowing 4 of them to jump the gun every time gives us much smaller odds of lynching one successfully.
As such, I am inclined to assume the first 4 to volunteer are KGB until we get more information (Mazre, Palmer, Arkos, Tiger). By no means am I ready to cast a vote yet.
Eh, implying he was alright with the idea of 6 KGB, which I think is pretty high, I think El Topo having a kill power probably reinforces this as false.
The rules appear to say you can only target someone at night who is in your group, mission or town. Cops and other night power roles (yet to be known if they are in this game of course) in theory would want to remain in the town for the widest range of people to use their powers on. Thus, for every KGB that goes on the mission that gives those roles staying in town a much smaller chance of hitting KGB on an investigation.
Although I am rather new to Mafia as a whole, so who knows?
This is a decent point, though I don't think KGB would fill all mission slots at once, KGB in the town group at this stage was still needle in a haystack.
Thank you for agreeing with me, I was beginning to think I was nuts. I think day 1 KGB putting all 4 in the mission gives them the best odds because of the randomness of the day, the littlest thing can get someone lynched.
This is not to say they did that successfully of course, there is no way to know what the odds are, but lynching in the group of 4 is probably better odds then the town proper.
Again, with his explanation in the post before this, his all 4 theory is a little more logical and you can follow it. I still think it was a stretch though, especially so early in the game.
Sounds like it has been decided, but I am OK with not setting up a mission voting system after reading Palmers posts today. We will learn more from people arguing for or against to try and convince those who get in first.
I dont think I could have come up with a completely fair way of setting up this dynamic either, so we just have to live with how it is.
Now, because I didnt answer the question yesterday, I think that someone is more likely to be a townie if they pose logical theories on what the KGB would want to be doing for the current day/night phase, or trying to figure out who other KGB members are by probing other people. Thus, either Squidy is doing a really, really good job of trying to post a lot now to evade suspicion, or hes with the town (I believe you are with us). As for KGB, Id think someone was KGB if they werent trying to help the town in any observable way, whether that be by not posting much or by posting fluff most of all. And of course, if they volunteer for the mission within the first 10 minutes.
Apologies if anything I might have postulated yesterday seemed totally out there - I am new to this. The game does seem to encourage thinking out loud though, and I really do think that the KGB would have rushed to volunteer first this round for several reasons. But, those who are saying only 1 would volunteer for each mission make sense too. We really wont know for sure until at least midway through the game I guess.
So with that said, the only thing that makes sense right now is to vote for one of the first 4 volunteers in an attempt to see if they un-volunteer, which would hopefully tell us a lot and will immediately get my unvote.
Nothing personal, subject to change if someone is more suspicious later.
Vote: Mazre
This was probably the most substantial contribution made, it was beefy, had solid logic and a lot of points I would agree with, so I'd place it as pro-town attitude.
General Thoughts
Unlike the Danganronpa game, theres very little evidence of anyone trying to bandwagon. From the beginner Mafia wiki reading, this is either because people will consider them scum for doing so or we want to stretch out the day. In retrospect I probably should have voted for someone day 1, but EOD day 2 isnt too bad (problem is Mazre doesnt care that much that he has votes, or that I attempted to get him to un-volunteer =) ).
Player Reads:
Palmer - 1st 4 logic, but plenty active and I agree with the sentiment about not lynching active folks yet. His points about wanting to be in the mission make even more sense with the clarification that the KGB cant double kill if they have members in both camps. I consider him much less suspect then the other 3, but possible scum.
El Topo - Seems to have a good handle on the game and has stuck to his Roy vote while a decent amount of people have switched. See post 681/684 as an example. For now no evidence to presume scum.
YesNo - Appears to be matching her posting style from what Ive seen on GAF, which is always a good sign that you arent trying to hide something. But then again, no votes yet, pressure will do a lot to anyone. For now there is nothing Ive picked up that would cause me to suspect anything...scummy
Arkos - I really dont know...possibly playing dumb? A 1st 4 suspect of course...and I nearly voted for him Day 2 before I ultimately picked Mazre.
I will attempt to post my reads on the others in another post.
Another good contribution, giving some reads. Something which I noticed when going through these is he does this a few times, more than I thought.
PSA for me on this: As I get home after 5pm EDT on weekdays Monday-Thursday, whomever has my vote tonight will have it until the end of the day phase.
Frustrating, but he has mentioned it early and does again the next day, so I can't really be annoyed about it.
Yeah, I am an idiot who posted the same thing again after I already knew it was wrong from earlier in the thread. Just was trying to post quickly last night because I got home very late and didnt reread it. I was expecting to come in today to 4-5 people voting me due to that. Thanks for not doing so.
For activity concerns - This week I am writing my final paper for class so will be much more active come this weekend and beyond (still only at nights M-Th).
Im trying to reread the thread now so if you have any other questions, particularly as this is my last appearance before the vote Im here for another hour or two.
Eh, I counted from this post and 21 out of 33 were made after, so he has been more active than before, but not by much. Pick it up, man!
Id also like to know what getting caught by Honeypot means. Can they target Archer separately from the rest of the KGB, leading to 2 kills in one night if he doesnt go on a mission? And wouldnt Honeypot want to immediately volunteer for the missions on D3 just to kill Archer now that we know who he is?
This is of course assuming that the Archer role is as described, which I doubt as making a player almost unkillable doesnt make sense.
Clarifying a question, again being open and thinking out loud is what I consider town like (as long as it's not feeling like purposefully being ignorant, which at times it feels like this with Septimus)
Scrolling back dont think anyone posted this yet:
Ezekel wasnt on the mission last time, so if he was targeted wouldnt that mean the Honeypot is either Mazre, GLT/Darryl, Arkos or Palmer (Unless the HP is a third party)?
It was discussed, and yes it could be possible, but it could also be possible the KGB didnt expect to hit Archer first and slipped up.
My attempt to play devils advocate with myself about this situation.
Known Facts
Nobody died N1
The Doctor couldnt protect from beyond the grave after we lynched him.
Assumed
KGB kill as a group and one person PMs the kill order
Ouro considers it a Honeypot kill if the Honeypot is in the same group as those ordering the kill (option B here is that the Honeypot must message the kill to Ouro).
Ezekel is Archer, Honeypot exists
Ezekel had an attempt on his life N1, but not by the honeypot thus nobody died.
At least 3 KGB based on starting player total. This is like a normal Mafia game if they outnumber us they win.
Potential Scenarios Given the Above (not listed in any order of likelihood):
A) Honeypot is Neutral and needs to kill Archer to win. Well, were pretty well hosed then unless we send the same two people on a mission from now until the end of the game. Which
well
protects Ezekel and one other (hopefully non-honeypot) person from being killed for the rest of the game. Thus eliminating the missions as a X-Factor in this game and enabling Mafia to kill whomever they choose.
B) Honeypot is KGB and is only one who can kill Archer, but that is NOT her win condition. In this case, and if my assumption about how the Mafia kills is correct, keeping Archer in missions with one other person either wins Town the game or lynches a KGB person after Archer is killed one night.
C) KGB is screwing with us with a no-kill N1. Archer was a random element they didnt expect, either true or not (see D and E).
D) Ezekel is lying and Town, now this one would be interesting. Self Preservation motive but very anti-town.
E) Ezekel is lying and KGB, thus eliminating the missions as a X-Factor in this game and enabling Mafia to kill whomever they choose.
Whats the KGB motivation?
If I was KGB Id want to take away the possibility of missions. Too much unknown about who volunteers when and inviting suspicion. In this case A or E would be most likely in my book.
Decent contribution, offering some insight into his feelings into the Archer/HP situation. I think maybe Topo could be HP and his balancing is the fact he has three attempts to kill. Note: Basing this on what Topo has claimed, which I admit is not credible.
Disclaimer post: As was the case last week, I will not be available for the deadline rush tomorrow as it ends before 5pm EDT, so I will vote tonight and that will be my vote until the end.
I am currently rereading the entirety of D2, but my list of possibilities is currently (in no order):
Ezekel (if I come to the conclusion he is lying)
Darryl (for being the reincarnation of GLT + the sudden volunteer)
Palmer (Honeypot?)
Mazre (Honeypot?)
Arkos (Honeypot?)
Septimus (D1 to D2 change is striking)
I personally dont see the reason for voting for Squidy or El Topo right now more then the list above.
May change this vote later, but as Darryl currently has votes of the 3 Honeypot possibilities we know about + the volunteer thing...
VOTE: Darryl
Well I disagree about his line on Topo here, but he offers at least some insight into his Darryl vote, which is better than what others did at this point.
I agree, the odds of Ezekel dying tonight are basically 0 due to all of the attention called to the Honeypot thing, thats basically asking for the other volunteers to be lynched one by one.
However, that could potentially be why he did volunteer - to defer suspicion. Just because Honeypot and Archer are in the same pool does not mean Honeypot has to kill Archer that night. As noted, Darryl is a potential Honeypot suspect because GLT was one for being in the first mission. Its a bit of an odd move to volunteer now, but it doesnt exactly imply Honeypot unless Ezekel dies tonight.
Thats the problem with trying to find the Honeypot. Either A) Its all a trick and he/she doesnt exist in the game, B) He/She does exist but we have no clues aside from 4 possibilities (but potentially a lot more then that) unless they are killed/lynched or Archer dies.
Offering opinions on Archer/Honeypot/Darryl. Good post.
Yeah, I just should have said Honeypot candidate for Darryl, which is what I meant (as GLT was one of the first 4 volunteers)
Realized it was a mistake to link GLT and Darryl's behaviour, fair dos.
We should have a very good read that Honeypot is not neutral by the beginning of D3 when people volunteer. Based on who those folks are, and assuming Archer isnt dead tomorrow, then the Honeypot would not be acting in their own best interest with that win condition.
If they are neutral, as I noted before, we have already lost the game because Ezekel claimed Archer so its a matter of time. Unless hes not, of course.
Possibility. Hey guys, Topo wasn't acting in his own best interest, just for fun, right?
Meh, well this sucks. Either we have a neutral party on our hands or KGB gets 2 kills after all.
Feedback from N1
My updated list of information. Feel free to poke holes if I missed something.
List of the Fallen:
Visualante2 (Lynched D1) - Doctor #1 - could protect one person at night
Zubz (Lynched D2) - Ordinary Drone
Bubeting (Killed N2) - Analyst, could listen in on the Mission night chat, could not post
RoytheOne - (Killed N2) Doctor #2, Clone - could protect one person at night AFTER Visualante was dead
Known Facts
Nobody died N1
Two deaths N2 (so Two deaths in one night is possible)
List of People in Town Each Night:
N1: TheGoddamn, roytheone, cooljeanius, Septimus Prime, Burbeting, cabbeh, Mike_Hawk, Enker, ElTopo, EzekelRage, YNNNY, Zubz, QuantumBro, Seath, Hobo, Haly, Squidy, AwesomePossum
N2: KILLED (roytheone, Burbeting) TheGoddamn, cooljeanius, Septimus, cabbeh, Mike_Hawk, Enker, YNNNY, Arkos, QuantumBro, Seath, Hobo, Haly, Squidy, AwesomePossum
Power Roles In Play
D3NEW - (Assumed) KGB Investigator Role
(Assumed) Honeypot, only one who can kill Archer
(Assumed) Neutral Serial Killer (may be same as Honeypot?)
The Volunteers
N1 - Mazre, GLT/Darryl, Palmer, Arkos
N2 - EzekelRAGE, Mazre, Palmer, Darryl
N3 - (as of right now) Mazre, SquidyJ, Cabbeh, EzekelRAGE
Assumed Facts
(Note - Yes, I did see your update on this Cabbeh but am keeping it the way I had it given tonights events)
KGB kill as a group and one person PMs the kill order
Ouro considers it a Honeypot kill if the Honeypot is in the same group as those ordering the kill (option B here is that the Honeypot must message the kill to Ouro).
D3NEW - People on a mission cant kill those in town. This is in the rules but...
D3NEW - KGB can only kill once per night
Ezekel is Archer, Honeypot exists
Ezekel had an attempt on his life N1, but not by the honeypot thus nobody died.
At least 3 KGB based on starting player total.
D3NEW - Per El Topo, apparently there are unaligned roles. Odds are high that at least one of these people is a Serial Killer role.
D3NEW - The KGB have been VERY specific with their kills. They likely have a role that can investigate or who already knows who we are.
Honeypot is NOT Palmer, Mazre or Darryl if the role is as described.
Potential Suspects:
D3REVISED - Honeypot is Neutral and needs to kill Archer to win. If this is the case, then Mazre, Darryl and Palmer are NOT the Honeypot.
D3New: Our list of suspects is TWO of the following: TheGoddamn, cooljeanius, Septimus, cabbeh, Mike_Hawk, Enker, YNNNY, Arkos, QuantumBro, Seath, Hobo, Haly, Squidy, AwesomePossum. This is the list of people who were in town N2 and relies on the assumption that people on the missions cant kill people left in town.
He makes two posts like this and while they offer some thoughts, I still don't think they're particularly useful. I'd prefer sticking to reads and actual opinions based on posts made than offering a massive hypothetical brain dump.
That (apparently?) turned into this...
If there was a clear hint why all the hype about today?
Questioning Topo here.
IF Ezekel is telling the truth that he survived a brush with death as well N1, then we either have 3 people that can kill in the game or one of you is lying.
AKA one of you is lying. Its almost impossible to believe 3 people can kill independently as this would seem to heavily screw up this games balance.
I'm not sure about this post, I read it and even with the quote he responded to, I didn't really understand where he assumed 3 people could kill. Someone was lying though, we had that confirmed.
While were noting things, what was said during the mission chat? Did you guys press Ezekel at all for any information on his role?
Following up with volunteers on mission chat. Sensible move
Indeed, it sounds like fun. And that makes vote v1:
VOTE: Palmer_v1
This one confused me, I've been reading Enker up until now as town going through these posts. Palmer obviously got the ball rolling on Topo and despite being initially frosty on him (As stated previously, I find it hard to read him) I would be comfortable saying I'm around 75% sure he's town.
This one just stuck out like a sore thumb, care to offer a bit more detail, buddy?
Lets be lucky nobody roleclaimed Katness Everdeen, Archer on Fire before me, because otherwise wed have a counterclaim on our hands.
I count 7 El Topo votes right now, which is less then 10, but close enough to be careful. I feel like theres more Archers to come out of the woodwork so I wont contribute to the day potentially ending early today.
Well he got in on the role claim jokes at least.
CONCLUSION: I've been off Enker for a while, and I was expecting to find the greatest scum read of all time when I decided to go back over his posts. Fortunately, I was disappointed. I read him as town, though I definitely feel he should be posting more, and focus less on the mega brain dump posts and focus more on the day-to-day discussions going on. I understand his job and coursework is a bit of a pain for his activity, but I'd like to see him keep on top of most big things throughout the day phases.
I'm saying I trust Enker just now. Little in his posts (aside from the Palmer thing, which I'd like more explanation about) has me suspicious currently. I'd place him at around 60% townie.
Have at ye.