Asians to overtake Hispanics as largest US immigrant group over the next 50 years

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XiaNaphryz

LATIN, MATRIPEDICABUS, DO YOU SPEAK IT
http://www.sfgate.com/news/politics/article/Study-projects-Asians-will-become-largest-US-6534166.php

WASHINGTON (AP) —In a major shift in immigration patterns over the next 50 years, Asians will have surged past Hispanics to become the largest group of immigrants heading to the United States, according to estimates in a new immigration study.

The study looks in detail at what will happen by 2065, but the actual tipping point comes in 2055.

An increase in Asian and Hispanic immigration also will drive U.S. population growth, with foreign-born residents expected to make up 18 percent of the country's projected 441 million people in 50 years, the Pew Research Center said in a report being released Monday. This will be a record, higher than the nearly 15 percent during the late 19th century and early 20th century wave of immigration from Europe.

Today, immigrants make up 14 percent of the population, an increase from 5 percent in 1965.

The actual change is expected to come in 2055, when Asians will become the largest immigrant group at 36 percent, compared with Hispanics at 34 percent. White immigrants to America, 80 percent back in 1965, will hover somewhere between 18 and 20 percent, with black immigrants in the 8 percent to 9 percent range, the study said.

Currently, 47 percent of immigrants living in the United States are Hispanic, but by 2065 that number will have dropped to 31 percent. Asians currently make up 26 percent of the immigrant population but in 50 years that percentage is expected to increase to 38 percent.

Pew researchers analyzed a combination of Census Bureau information and its own data to develop its projections.

Part of the reason for the shift is that the fertility rate of women in Latin America and especially Mexico has decreased, said Mark Hugo Lopez, Pew's director of Hispanic research. In Mexico, Lopez said, women are now having around two children, when back in the 1960s and 1970s, they were having about seven children per woman.

"There are relatively fewer people who would choose to migrate from Mexico so demographic changes in Mexico have led to a somewhat smaller pool of potential migrants," he said. "At the same time we've seen a growing number of immigrants particularly from China or India who are coming for reasons such as pursuing a college degree or coming here to work temporarily in the high-tech sector."

Despite the increase in Asian immigrants, Hispanics will still make up a larger number actually living inside the United States, Lopez said.

"Hispanic population growth is coming from people born here in the United States," he said. "It is really U.S. births that are now the driver of Hispanic population growth, and that's a recent change from what we saw in the '80s and '90s."

By 2065, no racial or ethnic group will hold a majority in the United States, with whites holding 46 percent of the population, Hispanics at 24 percent, Asians at 14 percent and blacks at 13 percent. Currently, the country is 62 percent white, 18 percent Hispanic, 12 percent black and 6 percent Asian.
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Serious question: How long until we see countries permanently shutting down their borders to immigrants because the country simply doesn't have enough resources (water, food, energy, etc) available for everyone? Many countries will run out water soon or in the coming decades, right? Are we going to see more 1 Child Policies like China? Something has to give. It's kind of frightening to think about. Or is this something that is so far out that I won't even see it in my lifetime?
 
Cagey said:
Asians next in line after the Jewish to get that white-adjace status?
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At least some, I think. There's a line of thought that doesn't see whites becoming a minority in the US because the definition of white will expand to include East Asians. Which seems a little far-fetched for me, but then again classifying white Jews and Irish as non-white seems mind-boggling, and certainly from an economic and education standpoint white Americans and Asian Americans share many traits... so who knows.

theusedversion said:
Serious question: How long until we see countries permanently shutting down their borders to immigrants because the country simply doesn't have enough resources (water, food, energy, etc) available for everyone? Many countries will run out water soon or in the coming decades, right? Are we going to see more 1 Child Policies like China? Something has to give. It's kind of frightening to think about. Or is this something that is so far out that I won't even see it in my lifetime?
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It's certainly going to get worse before it gets better. I don't see global migration slowing, at any rate. The global birth rate is slowing fairly steadily but if the estimates of 11 billion people by 2100 are accurate there's going to be a lot of pain involved.
 
entrement said:
Seven children per woman. Good lord @ that stat.

That was the average too.
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I have more aunts and uncles than I can count. More than 12 on my mom's side alone.
Among them, most of them stopped at 2 or 3 kids. Particularly the ones who settled in America.

One generation changed a lot about family sizes.
 
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