August 2017 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes Tuesday, September 5th
hanspampel
Banned
depends - hard to tell.
the lineup this holiday season is very strong. that could keep the One S on pace. Destiny 2, Battlefront 2, a CoD game people want, PUGB, AC: Unity, Shadow of War
~ 2.5 million was the last 3 holidays
this year Xbox One S could be down 500k or 20%, yes
the Xbox One X has to compensate those sales
if Xbox One X sells 500k that would result in no net gain or loss - and as i said i consider this to be bad.
if Xbox One X sells over 500k that would increase the total
i agree. it's more likely than not Xbox One S will sell below 2.5 million this holiday season. still 2.5 million for the S and all Xbox One X sales supplementary would be the best case scenario for the Xbox One Family
this holiday and Q1 2018 is the turning point for Xbox One and will tells us if the brand is okay and can still pull a stunt, or is pretty much "dead"
DriftingSpirit
Member
I think 2018 will be more important. We know Xbox can have good/great holidays and I suspect this will, at least, be another good holiday for Xbox. The question is if the momentum from that will carry over into and through 2018. Can the major titles they have set for early 2018 carry the baton pass from the X launch? Or will it all fizzle out before fall 2018? The beginning of the year is always down following the prior fall/holiday period but I think that is especially the case for Xbox.
Argh. I'm really sorry guys. This has been a really hectic last couple of weeks for me. We're gearing up for the holiday season prep internally, laying out hiring plans, expectations for the Destiny launch, etc.
it's too late to be of any use, but it does look like switch stocks probably beat out the ps4 this month. The xbox is still just struggling along with standard format. I might have more questions I can try to dig up some details if people want me to try and look into them. Finally taking a breather with some of my new games.
it's too late to be of any use, but it does look like switch stocks probably beat out the ps4 this month. The xbox is still just struggling along with standard format. I might have more questions I can try to dig up some details if people want me to try and look into them. Finally taking a breather with some of my new games.
Bitch Pudding
Member
Thx, your insights are always welcome and useful, even if your no-show before the deadline was a huge letdown for all of us.
Do you think Nintendo will be able to significantly rev up their Switch production for holiday season, any indication on that?
I'd challenge your assumption on Nintendo producing more titles than Sony or Microsoft, at least historically. A higher percentage of total releases on Nintendo platforms have come from 1st party across the 3DS, Wii U and Switch, but total release counts are comparable or lower than the other first parties.
1st Party = Published by 1st Party. May or may not be internal development.
Very interesting numbers. I didn't know that the difference between MS and Sony was just 10 titles.
MatPiscatella
Member
Kinda, yeah.
I think (the biggest?) part of the problem is that everyone's going to bring a different definition of what success means. Especially when we're talking new things like iterative consoles.
So when someone says X units = success or not a success, then that might not jive with how another person would define that word or volume.
The only people that really know what success does and doesn't mean for Xbox One X are the people at Xbox.
Here's the list. I'm sure it could be argued that X or Y game shouldn't count for whatever reason, but life's too short.
MatPiscatella
Member
Welfare
Member
Ah OK. Didn't know MS published some combo pack SKUs.
is one... might be others. Combo packs.
I'd challenge your assumption on Nintendo producing more titles than Sony or Microsoft, at least historically. A higher percentage of total releases on Nintendo platforms have come from 1st party across the 3DS, Wii U and Switch, but total release counts are comparable or lower than the other first parties.
1st Party = Published by 1st Party. May or may not be internal development.
Heh. Got me beat, that's what I get for not looking at the actual numbers (and also conflating handhelds and console releases).
Thanks for the answer and collating the data.
astrogamer
Member
Isn't that table missing GBA, GCN and PSP
It was in the 2015 bundle. Don't know if it was sold standalone
Sangetsu-II
Member
It's ok if anything at least what you said is in line with what most of us predicted. lol
hanspampel
Banned
is one... might be others. Combo packs.
this one, too
not sure if there are even more
MatPiscatella
Member
I apologize for my incompetence. I shall commit ritualistic shaming of myself for being such an ignorant.
BanjoLayleeYookaKazooie
Banned
I can accept that lol.
Anyway on topic I only got approved yesterday so I didn't make it in time for this month, I'll be partaking next time for sure though. Glad that the industry is healthy atm, aside from the garbage microtransactions.
MatPiscatella
Member
Welcome!
Ehhhhh... those "garbage microtransactions" are a big reason why the console space is doing well.
Despite the (somewhat justifiable) flak they get, people are spending quite a bit, and that spend is growing at a strong rate.
I'm not saying that every type of MTX is good because the spend is there. I'm not making a value judgment. Just saying that a good chunk of the reasons for industry health right now are because these new revenue streams have opened up.
hanspampel
Banned
can you talk a little about the ASP for the consoles (without giving a specific number)
i wonder if the Switch is maybe even above MSRP thanks to the high price "forced bundles" from Gamestop
how did the Pro affect the Ps4 family.
what about Microsoft? it always looked like they pushed the different SKU strategy with 500GB and 1TB or even some 2TB special SKUs further than the other two. contrary to the EU market, where Sony has sooooooo many more different bundles, than in the US.
gundamkyoukai
Member
10 is a huge number if the titles become big game sales wise IMO.
DeuceGamer
Member
I'd challenge your assumption on Nintendo producing more titles than Sony or Microsoft, at least historically. A higher percentage of total releases on Nintendo platforms have come from 1st party across the 3DS, Wii U and Switch, but total release counts are comparable or lower than the other first parties.
1st Party = Published by 1st Party. May or may not be internal development.
I wonder how that compares for each platformer holder per year? That chart shows that Nintendo's output is definitely more heavily weighted towards the handhelds, which are obviously smaller titles. Will be interesting to see how they handle those projects on Switch.
% wise how much do micro transactions attribute to overall income compared to the cost of the game itself? I'd think that the number of people who buy micro transactions is quite a bit less than the people who bought the game, but that number regularly do it.
Also, which genre of game has the best ratio of micro transactions per person?
Also, which genre of game has the best ratio of micro transactions per person?
MatPiscatella
Member
Fantastic thoughts and questions. So I'll add some color, even if I can't directly answer some of them.
I haven't done that look in a while, and it's physical release day with media next week so I can't get to it soon. But maybe next month.
Side answer - Release count has the best correlation to total physical software sales of any quantifiable measure. Between 2010 and 2016, the correlation between packaged release count in a year and that year's packaged sales ran at an r-squared of around 95%.
Of course, the more you slice your look within the set, the more variability and less correlation you'll find. So, more games for one platform holder wouldn't necessarily mean more sales, as not all games sell at a comparable rate. However, all other things being equal, more games is more likely to get to more sales than fewer games would.
Oh man, this is the right question! And I don't know the answers, because there are a number of unknown factors. But if you take a look at slide 5 of EA's Q1 Results or slide 13 of Ubisoft's FY17 Earnings & Sales report you can get a sense of how impactful sales of ancillary products and services can be. Although you can't specifically get to MTX in these reports, unfortunately.
In terms of genre on console that does it best? I have my own hypotheses, but I don't know for certain.
So I can't disclose, but I can clarify a bit.
There are two kinds of bundles: Hard Bundles (where something is packed into the sealed box with the hardware) and Soft Bundles (where something outside the sealed box is sold in addition to the hardware).
Sales of Hard Bundles are allocated to the Console. So, the PS4 1TB Limited Edition Destiny 2 Pro Bundle costs $449.99 at GameStop. The revenues from that sale would be counted under PS4 hardware.
Sales of Soft Bundled products are allocated to each individual item. So a Switch bundle that includes a backpack or something... only the cost of the Switch itself would be counted for Switch, not the cost of the other included items.
So, to your Switch question in particular, the price reflected is only for the hardware itself, and will not have been impacted by any soft bundling done.
That's a little inside baseball, but hope it's helpful.
I haven't done that look in a while, and it's physical release day with media next week so I can't get to it soon. But maybe next month.
Side answer - Release count has the best correlation to total physical software sales of any quantifiable measure. Between 2010 and 2016, the correlation between packaged release count in a year and that year's packaged sales ran at an r-squared of around 95%.
Of course, the more you slice your look within the set, the more variability and less correlation you'll find. So, more games for one platform holder wouldn't necessarily mean more sales, as not all games sell at a comparable rate. However, all other things being equal, more games is more likely to get to more sales than fewer games would.
Oh man, this is the right question! And I don't know the answers, because there are a number of unknown factors. But if you take a look at slide 5 of EA's Q1 Results or slide 13 of Ubisoft's FY17 Earnings & Sales report you can get a sense of how impactful sales of ancillary products and services can be. Although you can't specifically get to MTX in these reports, unfortunately.
In terms of genre on console that does it best? I have my own hypotheses, but I don't know for certain.
So I can't disclose, but I can clarify a bit.
There are two kinds of bundles: Hard Bundles (where something is packed into the sealed box with the hardware) and Soft Bundles (where something outside the sealed box is sold in addition to the hardware).
Sales of Hard Bundles are allocated to the Console. So, the PS4 1TB Limited Edition Destiny 2 Pro Bundle costs $449.99 at GameStop. The revenues from that sale would be counted under PS4 hardware.
Sales of Soft Bundled products are allocated to each individual item. So a Switch bundle that includes a backpack or something... only the cost of the Switch itself would be counted for Switch, not the cost of the other included items.
So, to your Switch question in particular, the price reflected is only for the hardware itself, and will not have been impacted by any soft bundling done.
That's a little inside baseball, but hope it's helpful.
DriftingSpirit
Member
I wouldn't expect anything.
Only if MS have sold more than PS4 but we know it isn't happening.
Can you give us any info on how good the destiny PS4 bundle is doing? Is it going to do even quarter of what original destiny bundle did
Now that is definitely interesting. The original white bundles for Destiny 1, the standard and special, both did very very well, just to clarify. And damn, it's been hard for me to hold off on not getting one myself... I'm just trying not to buy *another* system. I could sell or trade my existing Pro for that white one... damn man.
Anyway! Preorders for the white system were solid. It's still more expensive than a standard bundle, though there were some people doing as I was tempted to do, for the white system. However, it isn't as though it has exhausted supply, we still have them, I'm pretty sure at every one of my stores. They've got more star power (Sorry for the pun) in the package, with the color, and bundle effect, so it's a great deal, if you're willing to drop more than the bare minimum to get a system.
What I'll be more interested in is how long Sony keeps replenishing them, since it's not like they launched and ceased selling. Destiny is a big deal, it's killing it, so the bundle seems to attract more eyes at the very least.
Well, it's worldwide and taking into consideration sell-in data (and not very useful for Switch since it's updated until March 2017) but should give you an idea of what is usually the percentage of first-party sales compared to total sales on Nintendo consoles (usually > 30% which is a high number):
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=963700
Sangetsu-II
Member
Never doubt the power off Destiny.
In Sep 2014, Sony did 500k+ in NPD.. Do you expect something in the vicinity like 400k+ for Sep 2017?
hanspampel
Banned
Hey Mat one more question. It's not that important anymore as NPD is now tracking and including digital, but I'm still curious.
What about digital full game download cards at brick and mortar stores?
There are 3 different kinds. Currency, DLC/Add-On and full game download codes and a own category for game cards is often mentioned in the NPD press release.
Are all 3 included there? Only curreny? Or only full game downloads not but rather for the game itself.
Because of the marketing deal Sony has with Activision, Microsoft is for example not allowed to sell a digital version of Destiny 2 or Call of Duty outside Xbox Live and you can't buy full game download cards at Amazon or Gamestop. Afaik even the Season Pass for Xbox One is not a code for the actual DLC, but just a $35 Currency Code with a Destiny DLC printing.
Without digital tracking that could make a little difference on the platform spit. Gladly we're beyond that now.
Thanks...
But i still appreciate your time to read through my question. I know they're often very specify and in depth so that collides with the stuff you can disclose here in a reasonable way sometimes.
What about digital full game download cards at brick and mortar stores?
There are 3 different kinds. Currency, DLC/Add-On and full game download codes and a own category for game cards is often mentioned in the NPD press release.
Are all 3 included there? Only curreny? Or only full game downloads not but rather for the game itself.
Because of the marketing deal Sony has with Activision, Microsoft is for example not allowed to sell a digital version of Destiny 2 or Call of Duty outside Xbox Live and you can't buy full game download cards at Amazon or Gamestop. Afaik even the Season Pass for Xbox One is not a code for the actual DLC, but just a $35 Currency Code with a Destiny DLC printing.
Without digital tracking that could make a little difference on the platform spit. Gladly we're beyond that now.
Thanks...
I thought you're a numbers guy and not a Facebook relationship status
But i still appreciate your time to read through my question. I know they're often very specify and in depth so that collides with the stuff you can disclose here in a reasonable way sometimes.
MatPiscatella
Member
It's... complicated.
Sales of platform exclusive code to content cards aren't going to move the split needle significantly.
MatPiscatella
Member
Friendly reminder that today is release day.
I'll be around for any questions.
I'll be around for any questions.
DriftingSpirit
Member
Thanks, Mat.
3rdamention
Member
It looks like we are both pretty much sharing the same opinion then. Xbox One X's success is really going to depend on how well the Xbox One S does.
Theslammer
Member
Kinda, yeah.
I think (the biggest?) part of the problem is that everyone's going to bring a different definition of what success means. Especially when we're talking new things like iterative consoles.
So when someone says X units = success or not a success, then that might not jive with how another person would define that word or volume.
The only people that really know what success does and doesn't mean for Xbox One X are the people at Xbox.
Here's the list. I'm sure it could be argued that X or Y game shouldn't count for whatever reason, but life's too short.
I feel there's a lot missing.
Examples:
Alienation
Matterfall
Resogun
Shadow of the Beast
Counterspy
Entwined
Hohokum
Everybody's Gone to the Rapture
Bound
Drawn to Death
The Tomorrow Children
Are these just retail, I'm guessing, for NPD purposes? Even then, I don't see Everybody's Golf, Uncharted: The Lost Legacy, or Knack II. That may just be because it's outdated, though. =P
Welfare
Member
I didn't see a thread for this but the CoD WW2 PS4 console was announced. https://blog.us.playstation.com/201...limited-edition-call-of-duty-wwii-ps4-bundle/
1TB $299 November 3rd.
The best CoD console this gen.
1TB $299 November 3rd.
The best CoD console this gen.
DriftingSpirit
Member
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=1433196
There was a thread talking about how ugly it is.
There was a thread talking about how ugly it is.
Welfare
Member
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=1433196
There was a thread talking about how ugly it is.
Ah thanks. Tried searching but I guess I looked over it.
Welfare
Member
https://venturebeat.com/2017/09/14/...d-xbox-one-and-playstation-4-again-in-august/
"The Nintendo Switch was August's best-selling hardware platform," NPD analyst Mat Piscatella said. "The Nintendo Switch has been the best-selling platform in four of the six months since launching in March 2017."
Top 20 http://www.gamesindustry.biz/articl...-switch-madden-cant-stop-august-sales-dip-npd
"Total video game sales were down 2% to $568 million for the reporting period, with video game software also down 2% to $271 million, hardware down 6% to $168 million and PC game software down 23% to $11 million. The only category that saw a boost was accessories, up 10% to $118 million, driven by Xbox One S controllers, Turtle Beach headsets, Switch Pro controllers and game cards."
"The Nintendo Switch was August's best-selling hardware platform," NPD analyst Mat Piscatella said. "The Nintendo Switch has been the best-selling platform in four of the six months since launching in March 2017."
Top 20 http://www.gamesindustry.biz/articl...-switch-madden-cant-stop-august-sales-dip-npd
"Total video game sales were down 2% to $568 million for the reporting period, with video game software also down 2% to $271 million, hardware down 6% to $168 million and PC game software down 23% to $11 million. The only category that saw a boost was accessories, up 10% to $118 million, driven by Xbox One S controllers, Turtle Beach headsets, Switch Pro controllers and game cards."
DriftingSpirit
Member
Good stuff for TLL and Crash still in top 10.
MatPiscatella
Member
Cool of you to drop in the middle of a conversation specifically about packaged games, and specifically games that launched July and prior, and throw down a list of other games that aren't a part of either list. Well done.
Welfare
Member
Hey Mat, this line here
"But while the Switch and PlayStation 4 are doing great, hardware sales overall dropped 6 percent year-over-year to $168 million. That's because the Xbox One and older systems like Xbox 360 and PlayStation 3 are dragging down sales relative to last August. Sales of the Xbox One are slowing down because Microsoft is preparing to launch the upgraded Xbox One X system November 7, so consumers are likely holding back until that is available."
Is this still referring to year over year or month over month from July?
hanspampel
Banned
so NSW > Ps4 Gap is below 203k units
edit:
and great to see CoD:IW out of the chart and still below BOIII and the standalone remaster
speaking with your wallet helps sometimes.
MatPiscatella
Member
The bolded wasn't my quote.
Reporting period goes through August 26th. Mario + Rabbids will be in September reporting.