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AusPoliGaf |Early 2016 Election| - the government's term has been... Shortened

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BowieZ

Banned
I know it's relatively moot now (Coalition is definitely going to form Minority with Katter and/or Xenophon), but ALP is hanging by a thread in Hindmarsh, having picked up a few and now ahead by 21 votes. (LNP is running away with Forde now, though.)

So yeah, it'll hopefully top out at 74-71, but chances are it may slip up to 75-70. (The other seats all look like Labor may just be able to maintain its razor thin leads.)

Gutted if they get 76 though. They do not deserve that.
 

xevis

Banned
The US actually does pretty well.

Have you actually been to the US? The number or poor and homeless, especially in the richest cities, is really quite shocking. Of course being poor and disadvantaged is awful anywhere but in the US this is especially true. The lack of a cohesive public safety net, the over-dependence on charity organisations to fill in the gap, the cluster-fuck that is food stamps. Just awful; and we haven't even discussed health or education!

And their wages aren't stagnant, it's a myth.

Nonsense. Real wages in the US haven't budged in decades. People earn more but their purchasing power has not improved.

PewResearch said:
What gains have been made, have gone to the upper income brackets. Since 2000, usual weekly wages have fallen 3.7% (in real terms) among workers in the lowest tenth of the earnings distribution, and 3% among the lowest quarter. But among people near the top of the distribution, real wages have risen 9.7%.
 
I know it's relatively moot now (Coalition is definitely going to form Minority with Katter and/or Xenophon), but ALP is hanging by a thread in Hindmarsh, having picked up a few and now ahead by 21 votes. (LNP is running away with Forde now, though.)

So yeah, it'll hopefully top out at 74-71, but chances are it may slip up to 75-70. (The other seats all look like Labor may just be able to maintain its razor thin leads.)

Gutted if they get 76 though. They do not deserve that.

I want to see 74 and Katter as Speaker now. Please.
 

xevis

Banned
I know it's relatively moot now (Coalition is definitely going to form Minority with Katter and/or Xenophon), but ALP is hanging by a thread in Hindmarsh, having picked up a few and now ahead by 21 votes. (LNP is running away with Forde now, though.)

Have you seen the AEC breakdown of the count?

Labor is currently ahead by 21 votes. The AEC has received 8884 postal votes so and they've processed 7383. 54% of those have gone to the Libs. If the trend continues, the Libs will win the seat by ~40 votes. Talk about a knife-edge result!
 
Have you seen the AEC breakdown of the count?

Labor is currently ahead by 21 votes. The AEC has received 8884 postal votes so and they've processed 7383. 54% of those have gone to the Libs. If the trend continues, the Libs will win the seat by ~40 votes. Talk about a knife-edge result!

Still no absent / pre-poll / interstate results. They may save Labor. Its almost certainly going to be an automatic recount either way (margin of less than 100).

So likely next week before a real result.
 

darkace

Banned
Have you actually been to the US?

Yes.

The number or poor and homeless, especially in the richest cities, is really quite shocking. Of course being poor and disadvantaged is awful anywhere but in the US this is especially true. The lack of a cohesive public safety net, the over-dependence on charity organisations to fill in the gap, the cluster-fuck that is food stamps. Just awful; and we haven't even discussed health or education!

It's not the best, but it's nowhere near the worst.

Nonsense. Real wages in the US haven't budged in decades. People earn more but their purchasing power has not improved.

https://www.minneapolisfed.org/publications/the-region/where-has-all-the-income-gone
 
Yet still relatively powerless against the freer movement of international capital.

To be fair this is less a flaw of democracy and more of the concept of the sovereign nation state in a globalized world. The only way to avoid a race to the bottom in the pursuit of capital is some kind of supranational body.

See also the way it's okay for companies to move production to SE Asia but they go out of their way to punish people who try to buy in those markets and import from there. Globalization for me but not for thee.
 

Yagharek

Member
Good think a clever man like Bob Katter has laid his cards on the table and will hold the balance of power in this country.

from his wikipedia page.

I can't believe you would dare question Katter's credibility when it comes to understanding quantum mechanics and vibrational energy levels.

Crocodiles are relevant.
 

Fredescu

Member
To be fair this is less a flaw of democracy and more of the concept of the sovereign nation state in a globalized world. The only way to avoid a race to the bottom in the pursuit of capital is some kind of supranational body.

Yeah, a limitation rather than a flaw. Or a flaw in expecting democracy to be a useful mechanism in capping concentrations of wealth.
 

D.Lo

Member
Looks like the Shorten-bot has reverted to a pre-election software version.

Weak robotic complaining.
 

Yagharek

Member
P3bwxC1.jpg


Flawless victory
 

Jintor

Member
i guess both parties can do it but hear about parties applying for overseas posting on behalf of residents, packaging it with a HTV, presenting it as if it's direct from the AEC and sending it on to overseas voters is... man.
 
i guess both parties can do it but hear about parties applying for overseas posting on behalf of residents, packaging it with a HTV, presenting it as if it's direct from the AEC and sending it on to overseas voters is... man.

They do it with postal vote applications too (but only incumbents are allowed too).
 

xevis

Banned

OK, let's see now…


Here is a preview of the key data issues that lead to the higher estimates of median household income growth.

  1. The price index used by the Census Bureau overstates inflation, and thus understates income gains, relative to a preferred price index.
  2. A changing mix of household types leads the overall median increase to understate the median increase of most household types.
  3. The Census Bureau measure of household income understates income growth by excluding some rapidly growing sources of income.

Paraphrasing:

Here's how, with some statistical sleight of hand, I'm going to re-write economic history and make it seem like everything is rosy and we're all richer than ever:

  1. First I'm going to throw out the standard measure of inflation, CPI, in favour of a controversial alternative which produces smaller numbers.
  2. Next I'm going to exclude shifting family demographics and just focus on traditional nuclear households.
  3. Finally I'm going to redefine Income (upwards, of course) and include in addition to wages things like super, medicaid, food stamps and other newfound sources of "wealth".

Give me a break.
 
OK, let's see now…




Paraphrasing:

Here's how, with some statistical sleight of hand, I'm going to re-write economic history and make it seem like everything is rosy and we're all richer than ever:

  1. First I'm going to throw out the standard measure of inflation, CPI, in favour of a controversial alternative which produces smaller numbers.
  2. Next I'm going to exclude shifting family demographics and just focus on traditional nuclear households.
  3. Finally I'm going to redefine Income (upwards, of course) and include in addition to wages things like super, medicaid, food stamps and other newfound sources of "wealth".

Give me a break.

Its completely valid for a standard of living comparison, its kinda dodgy for renumeration though (including government benefits necessary because wages are insufficient is ...).

Its also pretty interesting the households he noted as moving downwards are the ones that had the highest level originally (competition lowered individual wages but increased access benefitted women and families where 2 people work).
 
Shorten picked it up in the campaign and has now reverted to shit.

Turnbull was at his worst in the campaign IMO. Those fucking NG speeches my god.

Did you see him on Sunday morning, after it was clear they'd barely have a majority (if at all) , that was the worst victory speech ever.
 

xevis

Banned
Its completely valid for a standard of living comparison, its kinda dodgy for renumeration though (including government benefits necessary because wages are insufficient is ...).

We can argue about the validity of this or that modelling approach but I think that overall there's not much about this analysis that I find valid. Check out for example Female No Spouse households.

Waw, look at dem gains, amirite guiz?

Except the same group saw their "inflation"-adjusted "incomes" increase from $18K in 1976 to $26K in 2006; i.e. less than half the average wage and there's more people than ever in this group! Presenting the data in this way is totally misleading, IMO.

Its also pretty interesting the households he noted as moving downwards are the ones that had the highest level originally (competition lowered individual wages but increased access benefitted women and families where 2 people work).

Great point.
 

darkace

Banned
OK, let's see now…

Here's how, with some statistical sleight of hand, I'm going to re-write economic history and make it seem like everything is rosy and we're all richer than ever:

Anybody that thinks we are worse off is not living in this reality.

First I'm going to throw out the standard measure of inflation, CPI, in favour of a controversial alternative which produces smaller numbers.

That CPI overstates inflation is hardly controversial:

http://www.quickmba.com/econ/macro/cpi/

Poorer households have their inflation overstated even further, as their average basket of goods is more resistant to price changes.

Next I'm going to exclude shifting family demographics and just focus on traditional nuclear households.

What? It's showing that the main factor contributing to 'stagnant' income is that households have shrunk markedly since the 60's. If I have a smaller household but the same household income then clearly we are better off. It's just basic division.

Finally I'm going to redefine Income (upwards, of course) and include in addition to wages things like super, medicaid, food stamps and other newfound sources of "wealth".

You can ignore this bit, it's largely irrelevant.

Give me a break.

I suspect nothing could disavow you of the notion that people are worse off. If you're interested, here's more studies:

https://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/es/07/ES0707.pdf

http://www.nber.org/digest/oct08/w13953.html

http://www.nber.org/papers/w13953

http://blogs.piie.com/realtime/?p=5112

http://www.resolutionfoundation.org...4/08/Decoupling-of-wages-and-productivity.pdf

http://www.themoneyillusion.com/?p=30566

The main takeaway is that worker compensation has tracked worker productivity almost exactly 1:1.
 

xevis

Banned
That CPI overstates inflation is hardly controversial:

True but the alternative from Boskin is hardly unbiased. It's super controversial precisely because it's believed to understate inflation. Also, at least part of the modelling seems to be based on difficult-to-verify guesstimations. By comparison the CPI is measured using an internationally agreed-on standard and is not the result of a presidential working group looking for ways to reduce government spending on welfare.

What? It's showing that the main factor contributing to 'stagnant' income is that households have shrunk markedly since the 60's. If I have a smaller household but the same household income then clearly we are better off. It's just basic division.

That's precisely the point. Individual real wages aren't growing but one way to make it seem like they are is to focus on households and then to exclude an increasingly larger cross-section of the population. The stagnation, as pointed out by Elaugaufein, is hidden because women's participation and earnings are up -- so dual income households seem like they're better off.

You can ignore this bit, it's largely irrelevant.

lol.

I suspect nothing could disavow you of the notion that people are worse off. If you're interested, here's more studies:

My claim was that real wages have not improved. Which is true. Inequality in the US is also way up; the middle class is shrinking and more wealth than ever is being distributed to fewer and fewer people.

To recap then: extreme neoliberalism ideology is a dud and you need look no further for evidence of that than the changes in economic circumstances of ordinary Americans over the last 40 years. It's bullshit. I'll take Australia's "welfare state" any day.
 

darkace

Banned
True but the alternative from Boskin is hardly unbiased. It's super controversial precisely because it's believed to understate inflation. Also, at least part of the modelling seems to be based on difficult-to-verify guesstimations. By comparison the CPI is measured using an internationally agreed-on standard and is not the result of a presidential working group looking for ways to reduce government spending on welfare.

Yea I guess NBER, The Economist, Treasury, etc. are all after the same thing.

Or, in reality, it's not controversial, you just disagree with it because it comes to conclusions you don't like.

Just Google 'Does CPI overstate inflation'. It's not controversial in the slightest.

That's precisely the point. Individual real wages aren't growing

Umm yes they are that's the entire point. If you divide 100,000 by 3 and 100,000 by 2 the people in the second group clearly have more. I'm not sure how much simpler I can make it.

but one way to make it seem like they are is to focus on households and then to exclude an increasingly larger cross-section of the population. The stagnation, as pointed out by Elaugaufein, is hidden because women's participation and earnings are up -- so dual income households seem like they're better off.

The stagnation is hidden because it doesn't exist. What you've written here doesn't even make sense.


Because it's irrelevant. If you're arguing wages then exclude it, if you're arguing total income from all sources then include it.

My claim was that real wages have not improved. Which is true. Inequality in the US is also way up; the middle class is shrinking and more wealth than ever is being distributed to fewer and fewer people.

The middle class is shrinking because people are joining the upper class. http://static.seattletimes.com/wp-c...a7e8-a9e8-11e5-8ccb-07e94f98c393-1020x825.jpg

Some are worse off but the majority are better off.

To recap then: extreme neoliberalism ideology is a dud and you need look no further for evidence of that than the changes in economic circumstances of ordinary Americans over the last 40 years. It's bullshit. I'll take Australia's "welfare state" any day.

Australia is actually one of the best example's of 'neo-liberalism' of any state, having followed it for more than three decades now. The only nation-states to have outperformed us are Hong Kong and Singapore, the two that took neo-liberal reforms to the most extreme.

If you want another example look at Chile, the only state in South America to have made real gains on the developed world. Guess what ideology was responsible for that?
 

Shaneus

Member
Theres no way anyone is going for a DD unless they can get absolutely nothing bar Caretaker stuff through the Senate or they lose confidence/ supply in the house. A new DD will give pretty much the same Senate and a real chance of losing the house. Its better to wait 2 years and use a half-Senate elections higher quota to clean up a tad. Do they twice and the Senate Reform will probably show some value. Though quite likely only in providing blocks rather than less crossbench.
Two years? Fuck.
 

darkace

Banned
The point is also about having enough, not just being less unequal.

In Australia we have inequality but also too many people who don't have enough to get by.

People have more as a result of these reforms. The poor are less poor, it's just that the rich are better off by comparison.
 

xevis

Banned
Just Google 'Does CPI overstate inflation'. It's not controversial in the slightest.

I didn't say it was. I said CPI is preferable to (and less controversial than) the Boskin model.

The stagnation is hidden because it doesn't exist. What you've written here doesn't even make sense.

Repeat after me: individual wages and household income are not the same thing. The article you linked goes to great lengths to focus on household income and then on very specific households. The analyst does this because the income for no-spouse households (which are a rough proxy for individual wages) is messing up his otherwise lovely little picture.

The middle class is shrinking because people are joining the upper class.
Some are worse off but the majority are better off.

Nice graph. Interesting conclusion. Let's hash it out. Here is the study from which your posted image is sourced. From the link:

PewResearch said:
[ .. ] the nation’s aggregate household income has substantially shifted from middle-income to upper-income households, driven by the growing size of the upper-income tier and more rapid gains in income at the top. Fully 49% of U.S. aggregate income went to upper-income households in 2014, up from 29% in 1970. The share accruing to middle-income households was 43% in 2014, down substantially from 62% in 1970.2

To recap then:
- 4% more people in the highest income tier
- 2% more people in the upper middle.
- 5% more people in the lowest income tier
- The size of the middle has decreased by 11% since 1971 but their share of wealth is down 19%.

So who is getting richer?

Australia is actually one of the best example's of 'neo-liberalism' of any state, having followed it for more than three decades now. The only nation-states to have outperformed us are Hong Kong and Singapore, the two that took neo-liberal reforms to the most extreme.

If you want another example look at Chile, the only state in South America to have made real gains on the developed world. Guess what ideology was responsible for that?

I'm not arguing against capitalism and I'm not saying neoliberal economics is all bad. What I am saying is that neoliberalism ideology needs to be balanced by a progressive tax system and by social and economic policies that aim to re-distribute collective wealth to everyone, not just the very rich.
 

darkace

Banned
I didn't say it was. I said CPI is preferable to (and less controversial than) the Boskin model.

You realise it uses PCE deflator, right?

Repeat after me: individual wages and household income are not the same thing. The article you linked goes to great lengths to focus on household income and then on very specific households. The analyst does this because the income for no-spouse households (which are a rough proxy for individual wages) is messing up his otherwise lovely little picture.

This is just nonsensical. No-spouse households aren't a proxy for individual wages in any universe. I don't even understand how you can write that. I've made it very, very simple for you, and at this point I think you're just being wilfully obtuse.

To recap then:
- 4% more people in the highest income tier
- 2% more people in the upper middle.
- 5% more people in the lowest income tier
- The size of the middle has decreased by 11% since 1971 but their share of wealth is down 19%.

So who is getting richer?

The middle class? You realise everyone can be richer and inequality increases at the same time? Wealth creation isn't a zero-sum game.

I'm not arguing against capitalism and I'm not saying neoliberal economics is all bad. What I am saying is that neoliberalism ideology needs to be balanced by a progressive tax system and by social and economic policies that aim to re-distribute collective wealth to everyone, not just the very rich.

That's what neoliberalism is. Removal of barriers to growth (antiquated tax systems, overbearing regulation) coupled with a more efficient and targeted welfare system.
 

Fredescu

Member
This is just nonsensical. No-spouse households aren't a proxy for individual wages in any universe. I don't even understand how you can write that. I've made it very, very simple for you, and at this point I think you're just being wilfully obtuse.

The point is that wages aren't paid to a household, they're paid to an individual. This quote of yours:

Umm yes they are that's the entire point. If you divide 100,000 by 3 and 100,000 by 2 the people in the second group clearly have more. I'm not sure how much simpler I can make it.

When the topic of discussion is "wage stagnation" which you have claimed as a myth, you cannot use the metric of household disposable income to prove that. It is a completely different thing. If you're going to make the argument that "wage stagnation" doesn't matter because of other factors such as smaller household sizes, you can, but you appear to be conflating the two and then calling someone wilfully obtuse for pointing that out.
 
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