-
Hey, guest user. Hope you're enjoying NeoGAF! Have you considered registering for an account? Come join us and add your take to the daily discourse.
Avatar 2 officially titled Avatar: The Way Of Water, releasing in NA on December 16
Baradox
Neo Member
Same here! I saw the film on thursday and actually didn't want to go to the cinema again until after christmas...but now I've just booked tickets for next Wednesday. Again in 3D but this time in english (I live in Germany)
God damn Cameron...you madman you did it again....
Chiggs
Gold Member
Same here! I saw the film on thursday and actually didn't want to go to the cinema again until after christmas...but now I've just booked tickets for next Wednesday. Again in 3D but this time in english (I live in Germany)
God damn Cameron...you madman you did it again....
I'm off for the next two weeks and will be headed down to Miami. I'm going to find the best theater in town and see it again. It's definitely worth it, but I now think we're squarely in the realm of "how much you enjoy the film is directly tied to the quality and competence of the theater's staff & management." The fidelity is just so nuanced that a crummy projector and screen could spoil the whole thing.
If movies are to become less about story and more about experience, you can see how theaters are going to have to respond.
Last edited:
FunkMiller
Gold Member
Oof. This would be way under expectations...
https://deadline.com/2022/12/avatar-the-way-of-water-box-office-1235200714/
The first movie only opened to 72 million, and had spectacular holds, but this isn't likely to repeat that. If Cameron is serious about this thing needing 2 billion to turn a profit, it's not got off to a great start.
https://deadline.com/2022/12/avatar-the-way-of-water-box-office-1235200714/
The first movie only opened to 72 million, and had spectacular holds, but this isn't likely to repeat that. If Cameron is serious about this thing needing 2 billion to turn a profit, it's not got off to a great start.
He did.Same here! I saw the film on thursday and actually didn't want to go to the cinema again until after christmas...but now I've just booked tickets for next Wednesday. Again in 3D but this time in english (I live in Germany)
God damn Cameron...you madman you did it again....
Days like these...
Have a Blessed Day
I'm not buying this narrative that normies are waiting to see it in 4d smell-o-vision or whatever. I doubt they know the difference. 
balls of snow
Gold Member
The bar has been raised by Infinity War and Endgame. If its not a big marvel event, its not making money.
Chiggs
Gold Member
Well, one of those movies was good.
balls of snow
Gold Member
Doesnt matter whats good or not. It matters when youre the highest grossing movie of all time though.
Chiggs
Gold Member
But it's not:
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/03/13/ava...ssing-film-of-all-time-at-the-box-office.html
And that story's over a year old...and it doesn't factor in the remastered release in September.
https://www.axios.com/2022/12/16/highest-grossing-films-all-time
Avatar is now a good hundred plus million ahead of Endgame.
Last edited:
crazepharmacist
Member
Dolby 3D or Imax 3D with laser? What’s the best format to see it in?
Last edited:
ManaByte
Banned
HFR 3D
ManaByte
Banned
I'm sure that's the angle your favorite culture war outrage YouTuber is pushing for monetized views.
The other theory is that Eywa reincarnated Grace in her Avatar, which is why Kiri had the seizure when using the tree of souls to talk to Grace. It was a feedback loop. She's Grace reborn from Eywa.
Ulysses 31
Gold Member
The preview opening was worse than The Batman's and some Marvel movies...
'Avatar' 2 Thursday Previews Box Office Less Than Marvel and 'The Batman' | Cosmic Book News
The Avatar 2 Thursday box office is coming in way less than expected as not even close to any of the three Marvel movies and is even less than DC's The Batman.
cosmicbook.news
If it makes 1.2 billion we are there total .. in years, who cares .. even if this one does 1 billion .. all movies are financed .. hè than financed all 4 coming moviesThe preview opening was worse than The Batman's and some Marvel movies...
[/URL][/URL][/URL][/URL]
this one costed around 500 million to make .. Cameron is save.Sorry haters .. the coming years more blue Smurf movies
Last edited:
bitbydeath
Member
Wrong again.If it makes 1.2 billion we are there total .. in years, who cares .. even if this one does 1 billion .. all movies are financed .. hè than financed all 4 coming movies
Sorry haters .. the coming years more blue Smurf movies
https://deadline.com/2022/11/james-...of-water-sequel-underperforms-1235166201/amp/
Last edited:
midnightAI
Member
Could be either, but I think Kiri is definitely Grace reincarnated (and hence no father). Anyway, it's going to be fun finding out over the course of the films.
Ulysses 31
Gold Member
The suits footing the bill would care, it would be a disastrous flop if it only made 1.2 billion if it's true that it needs 2 billion just to break even.If it makes 1.2 billion we are there total .. in years, who cares .. even if this one does 1 billion .. all movies are financed .. hè than financed all 4 coming movies
Sorry haters .. the coming years more blue Smurf movies
midnightAI
Member
That's not true at all though, the budget for all 5 movies may be $2 billion, but this single movie is anywhere from $250 million to $500 million, if it takes $1.2 billion that would be a huge success
Last edited:
Thirty7ven
Banned
James Cameron was joking about the whole break even point. He’s very sarcastic.
Ulysses 31
Gold Member
Must be a lot of fake news around this movie then when articles state the Way of the Water needs 2 billion to break even.
Avatar: The Way of Water Needs to Make $2 Billion to Break Even
Here’s something you probably don’t want to hear if you’re a high-powered movie executive for Avatar producer 20th Century or their new corporate overlords at Disney: director James Cameron to calling his own sequel, The Way of Water, “the worst business case in movie history.” But that’s...
'Avatar' sequel needs $2 billion to break even. But are audiences still excited about 3D? | CNN Business
“Avatar: The Way of Water” has an imposing task on its hands.
www.cnn.com
James Cameron Admits 'Avatar 2' Needs to Gross $2 Billion to 'Break Even'
James Cameron admits that Avatar: The Way of Water needs to gross $2 billion in order to break even, representing "the worst business case in movie history."
www.thewrap.com
James Cameron himself said Avatar 2 needs to become the 4th/5th highest grossing film in history to break even. Pretty clear that's not including Avatar 3 and the rest, just 2.
Days like these...
Have a Blessed Day
So now a billion dollar haul is fine? Talk about moving goal posts.If it makes 1.2 billion we are there total .. in years, who cares .. even if this one does 1 billion .. all movies are financed .. hè than financed all 4 coming movies
Sorry haters .. the coming years more blue Smurf movies
Is it exploding yet?
Last edited:
SirKicksalot
Member
He said it to the suits when they were discussing the budget. That was years ago, when Harry Potter and Pirates were in the top 5.
Ulysses 31
Gold Member
That's over a decade ago when those movies were in the top 5. Where are you getting that said it around that time? Going back 7 years to the The Force Awakens era would still put it in around the 1.5 billion mark to break even according to his own words.
midnightAI
Member
Must be a lot of fake news around this movie then when articles state the Way of the Water needs 2 billion to break even.
Avatar: The Way of Water Needs to Make $2 Billion to Break Even
Here’s something you probably don’t want to hear if you’re a high-powered movie executive for Avatar producer 20th Century or their new corporate overlords at Disney: director James Cameron to calling his own sequel, The Way of Water, “the worst business case in movie history.” But that’s...news.yahoo.com
'Avatar' sequel needs $2 billion to break even. But are audiences still excited about 3D? | CNN Business
“Avatar: The Way of Water” has an imposing task on its hands.
James Cameron Admits 'Avatar 2' Needs to Gross $2 Billion to 'Break Even'
James Cameron admits that Avatar: The Way of Water needs to gross $2 billion in order to break even, representing "the worst business case in movie history."
James Cameron himself said Avatar 2 needs to become the 4th/5th highest grossing film in history to break even. Pretty clear that's not including Avatar 3 and the rest, just 2.
So when the estimates for the production of the film are as low as $250 million and as high as $500 million (the same as an Avengers movie there or thereabouts) why would the film need to make $2 billion to break even? even if the production budget didnt take marketing into account, which it wont, it should be nowhere near $2 billion
Last edited:
Ulysses 31
Gold Member
It's because Cameron himself said Avatar 2 needs to be the 4th/5th highest grossing movie to break even. He wasn't specific of which year which gives him some leeway(in 2022 that means around 2 billion) but Avatar 2 needs to make bucketloads to not be considered a disappointment financial wise.
Last edited:
midnightAI
Member
True, but Avatar (the first film) opening weekend was only $77 million, Way of the Water has just made $177 million first weekend. Like the first film I think this film will have legs with people watching for a few months at the cinemas, so the first weekend wont really matter too much. I think many people will want to watch it multiple times at the cinema unlike most films which are one and done.
You also have to remember that there are multiple Avatar films all being made at the same time, thats why I think the $2 billion figure is for all films not just one but I could be wrong about that.
Last edited:
SirKicksalot
Member
Well I'm just looking at the production timeline. They leased the Manhattan Beach lot to shoot the sequels in 2011, pre-production started in 2012 and they entered an agreement with the NZ government to spend half a billion in the country in 2013. They couldn't make that agreement without having at least a preliminary budget and for three movies (at the time) the figure was already gigantic.
Then Gravity came out, Cameron was inspired to move in a different direction and the original sequel script was abandoned. It came out this month as a prequel comic. And sometime later the script for Avatar 2 was split in two, making a total of four sequels.
Also by "break even" I think he means break even for the combined production costs of 2, 3 and the first act of 4, with no marketing. Fox and Murdoch were talking about a billion dollar budget for all four sequels in 2017.
Not true.
sigourny weavers preggers avatar shows some nips in the tank
Noticed some synergy as Avatar 2 tries to sell us on "eyes a mile apart" fish girls before Little Mermaid
Pagusas
Elden Member
so saw it last night. Ive got extremely mixed feelings on this one, but one thing I know for sure: FOR THE LOVE OF GOD NEVER EVER EVER MIX FRAME RATES AGAN. Jesus christ the switching back and forth between 24 and 48 was horrible. Pick one and stick with it. How Cameron put his stamp on that chsoice is beyond me. How anyone could watch that and be like "this is a good idea!" is beyond me.
I know a lot a people that went .. isn’t it
Days like these...
Have a Blessed Day
I know a lot a people that went .. isn’t it
'Avatar: The Way of Water' failed to live up to box office expectations on its opening weekend, reports say — putting pressure on Disney's $2 billion bet
'Avatar 2' has come in under expectations on its opening weekend. But, like its predecessor, it may end up being a longer-term hit.
www.businessinsider.com
FunkMiller
Gold Member
The box office for this is... er... interesting:
I doubt they were thinking it was only going to just earn more domestically in its opening weekend than The Batman.
I doubt they were thinking it was only going to just earn more domestically in its opening weekend than The Batman.
Days like these...
Have a Blessed Day
It did less than Wakanda Forever's opening weekend in the states. China fell through, now word of mouth is going to carry it to 3 billion supposedly. I hope the other sequels get cancelled and he does a titanic sequel or piranha 3. Never doubt Cameron!
Last edited:
FunkMiller
Gold Member
It did less than Wakanda Forever's opening weekend in the states. China fell through, now word of mouth is going to carry it to 3 billion supposedly. I hope the other sequels get cancelled and he does a titanic sequel or piranha 3. Never doubt Cameron!
3 billion? Not a fucking chance. It‘ll probably pass one, but it won’t get near two.
SirKicksalot
Member
Deadline was right - people are going for the premium screens.
octiny
Banned
Nah, MCU is always front loaded w/ massive drops. They couldn't be less comparable.
It's a marathon for Avatar 2 & always has been. It'll navigate a similar path to Top Gun Maverick in terms of drops week by week, especially w/ that 3+ hour runtime. The extremely minimal Thurs/Friday to Saturday drop off is already proof of that.
It should make 130+ million domestic over Xmas weekend. Possibly even more than it's opening weekend. Xmas is huge, especially for a movie like this. All movies receive a nice increase.
It'll be around 450+ million domestic by end of Jan. 1st, as each mon-thursday w/ schools out will perform like mini weekends. 625+ million by the 15th.
There's no direct competition for like 3 months.
I'm more worried about the whole Covid thing in China becoming a problem again, shutting down over half of its originally estimated screenings. Unless the Covid situation improves there, it'll be lucky to even make what the first one made there at this rate. That would be a huge blow as Avatar was the biggest American movie ever there at the time. It only made 200 million originally, but that would've translated much higher for the sequel due to how big the China market is now for movies 13 years later (overtook the US). Even the re-release made 60 million before they went back into a partial lockdown.
Regardless, it's heavily outperforming the original in every other market. So we'll see how good it's legs are.
You can really tell the folks apart on who has followed the B/O for years & who hasn't in this thread.
People fail to realize that 70% of it's profits will come overseas (China only accounted for 200 million in its original run). Similar to the first. It's hit that percentage already in its first weekend, 70/30. 2 billion is still in the cards all considering, how much further than that is the question.
Avatar 3 is already done filming. They filmed 2 & 3 simultaneously which I'm guessing is where that 2 billion threshold comes into play, as theres no logical way for the sequel alone needing 2 billion. 2x-3x it's production budget is the standard multiplier needed to turn a profit. So if both cost 350-450 million, it's quite obvious how Cameron factored in the costs of 2 billion.
They also shot parts of 4 already because they needed to film certain kid actors before they grew up.
Last edited:
SirKicksalot
Member
Big Jim does it again lmao
Chiggs
Gold Member
20% of pre-sales set for this week is definitely a sign for optimism if you're Cameron and Disney.
And it does appear to be true that people are seeking out the high end theaters for this, which could be both a blessing and a curse.
And then there's China...oof. That's okay, they can just re-release it again in 3-4 months.
And it does appear to be true that people are seeking out the high end theaters for this, which could be both a blessing and a curse.
And then there's China...oof. That's okay, they can just re-release it again in 3-4 months.
Days like these...
Have a Blessed Day
Does what?
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/12/18/movies/avatar-the-way-of-water-box-office.html
'Avatar: The Way of Water' opens to $134 million, just missing box office expectations
"Avatar: The Way of Water" fell short of box office expectations, but international ticket sales spark hope that the sequel will pull in a substantial haul.
www.cnbc.com
Last edited:
Chiggs
Gold Member
You're either going to be massively vindicated or massively incorrect over the course of the next couple of weeks. Some reasons for you to second guess your instincts:
- Cinemascore and word of mouth continue to be really strong.
- 20% of ticket presales were for THIS week; not last.
- Zero competition until...when?
- Some schools are just now getting out.
- Avatar was also slammed for not beating out Twilight New Moon's opening weekend in 2009.
- Titanic barely edged out Tomorrow Never Dies in December of 1997.
Last edited:
analog_future
Resident Crybaby
Does what?
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/12/18/movies/avatar-the-way-of-water-box-office.html
'Avatar: The Way of Water' opens to $134 million, just missing box office expectations
"Avatar: The Way of Water" fell short of box office expectations, but international ticket sales spark hope that the sequel will pull in a substantial haul.
$134 million isn't bad though, despite being short of expectations. And there's every reason to believe this film is going to have great legs.
bitbydeath
Member
Disney has already cut the forecast numbers, not as much faith as you I suppose.
https://www.businessinsider.com/avatar-2-fails-to-live-up-to-box-office-hopes-2022-12?amp
Chiggs
Gold Member
Last edited:
Days like these...
Have a Blessed Day
It's not 2009 anymore the world is a different place and I've seen very little hype for this. China already fell through so now it needs to have super long legs for it not to underperform.
I don't hate James Cameron, Aliens is one of my all time favorite movies. I just wish he would have gone on to make other movies after the original Avatar.
bitbydeath
Member
Not expected by Disney, just fanboys.You might want read the stories you post, man.
Chiggs
Gold Member
I totally agree with you, and I don't see Avatar 2 breaking the all time record. It just won't do it. The world has changed and COVID is running rampant, and you can see that plainly, evident by a disastrous 2022 at the box office. Look at Wakanda Forever....talk about underperforming.
But The Way of Water is already outpacing Top Gun: Maverick...so don't be surprised if it chugs along, slowly but surely, and arrives at an impressive number...similar to what Top Gun did.
Last edited:
SirKicksalot
Member
Awesome spectacle on a giant screen is just as rare, especially in real 3D and after the pandemic. You just can't replicate that at home.
And if you like HFR you'll have to wait a decade until you get that experience at home. There are not enough screens that display 48fps without pulldown and the current Blu-ray standard does not support it anyway. Avatar 2 has a wide HFR release across all 3D formats.