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BBC: Tremor is detected in North Korea (up: nuclear test conducted)

I blame US for this shit

Stop provacing NK all the time.

First of all. Stop with the massive military things with SK right outside NK damn door

Ofc NK gonna respond with stuff like that. They are afraid US gonna do their global police thing

Its the same in EU with Russia. US/Nato doing military things with countrys around Russia. Ofc Russia responds.

Yes, it was the US who provoked North Korea in invading South Korea in 1950.

It was the US who invaded Hungary, Czechoslovakia, and Poland during the Cold War.

Stop US, stop it!
 

Volphied

Member
Pyongyang only had enough material to eventually build less than a handful of bombs, a far cry from what we had expected without an agreement. That sounds like a success to me

These are just on such hugely different planes of "success" that I'm somewhat convinced that I'm getting trolled. North Korea did not "freeze" their program by any definition of the word. They were cheating on the deal, they were cheating on it well before Bush came into office, end of story.

Also, I want to point out this beautiful example of you quote mining a sentence in order to make it seem to say the complete opposite: Here's the full context you intentionally and deceitfully omitted:

Joel Wit said:
Because of the 1994 agreement, the United States was able to head off the dangerous future foretold in its intelligence estimates. As my colleagues in the U.S. government and I worked to implement the arrangement, it gradually became clear that the North Koreans not only shuttered their operating reactor and allowed Americans to safely and securely store their spent plutonium, but also did nothing to maintain facilities under construction. The North Koreans may have thought maintaining these installations was unnecessary since they would eventually have to be dismantled under the terms of the agreement. But whatever the reason, these buildings became useless piles of junk and were abandoned. When the Agreed Framework collapsed in 2002 before it was fully implemented, Pyongyang only had enough material to eventually build less than a handful of bombs, a far cry from what we had expected without an agreement. That sounds like a success to me. And its large reactor, probably intended to produce power for civilian purposes but could have also produced plutonium for nuclear weapons, was expected to have been completed by the late 1990s. Instead, it became a pile of unsalvageable junk.

It's clear from the whole picture that whatever "material" NK had, was useless without the facilities. Said facilities were only rebuild after the deal collapsed thanks to Dubya.

So yeah, I'll give you an A+ for how hard you're trying to negatively spin what Joel said.
 
There is nothing the US, SK, Japan can do. The only one that can do something about NK is China. The only way you MIGHT persuade China to do something is for the U.S. to to rapidly build even more advanced military tech on the Korean peninsula right in China's backyard to the point that China feels insecure.
China isn't at a position where they can much at this point. They already don't have much of a relationship with Kim and don't want to further antagonize or make an enemy out of nuclear-armed NK because that's a far worst outcome for them than an armed SK or Japan.

Keep in mind Communist regimes can and have turned on one another very quickly in the past.
 

BocoDragon

or, How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Realize This Assgrab is Delicious
There will never be a point where North Korea can survive in an actual war again. It will have the combined power of South Korea, Japan, the US and maybe more against it. There is no winning there, just enough damage and lives lost to not make anyone want to attack North Korea first.

As long as they have a somewhat rational leader, or at least some generals around him to shoot the guy if he goes crazy, nothing will happen.

They are bordered in by Russia, China and South Korea. None of those are countries where they can get away with doing anything against them. Bigger danger is them selling their nuclear knowledge to parties we don't want it sold to
.

I agree totally. In the present moment, NK is not a power player.

But there is no endgame to this NK situation. We have this feeling of military superiority/containment over them, but how long is this supposed to last, exactly? Decades? Centuries?

If there is never a point to initate conflict with them and neutralize them, then they will grow to become something that maybe is a kind of minor power someday. Long term, they might emerge as something worth paying attention to.
 

Stasis

Member
I really don't have much to contribute. This isn't a topic I've followed closely, ever.

But I did always assume we'd have the higher ground and allies to debate/defuse/defend against this, so to me it was mostly a non-issue. Selfishly at least. I do recognize other countries could/can always suffer from this.

But now? Well. Fuck. Not much else I can say. This was inevitable. The conflict. To have an incompetent beyond words man 'leading' our nation in these trying times? Fuck. Just, fuck.

It'd be a good time to have a president now. A president. Trump isn't one. Never has been. Never will be. But we could use one right about now.
 

Oriel

Member
Yes, it was the US who provoked North Korea in invading South Korea in 1950.

It was the US who invaded Hungary, Czechoslovakia, and Poland during the Cold War.

Stop US, stop it!

The Warsaw Pact, the only military alliance to have ever invaded itself.
 
You know, the irony would be during one of their tests if they accidentally blew themselves up.

I worry about this too. I imagine them doing their big parade and marches leading up to their biggest missile launch yet, only for it to explode on the launch pad. The massive loss of life along with the fallout would lead to a humanitarian crisis I imagine. Not sure how to best handle something like that.
 
I agree totally. In the present moment, NK is not a power player.

But there is no endgame to this NK situation. We have this feeling of military superiority/containment over them, but how long is this supposed to last, exactly? Decades? Centuries?

If there is never a point to initate conflict with them and neutralize them, then they will grow to become something that maybe is a kind of minor power someday. Long term, they might emerge as something worth paying attention to.
I don't see a possible path for them to become any kind of power, outside of one that can throw a nuke around sadly.

They don't have a way to grow to that. They don't have the resources, they don't have the economy, they don't have the size, they don't have any way to expand. With Russia they can throw their weight around, because they have a lot of smaller countries to do it with (reason a lot of them joined NATO). China has the economic might to throw around a bit and the size and military to bully surrounding countries.

North Korea can never stand up to Russia, China or South Korea. The only way they can become more of a threat is if they somehow grow more powerful. But the funny then is, if they want to become that, they actually need to transform their country into a more modern and capitalistic state, which makes them less dangerous to others.

I worry about this too. I imagine them doing their big parade and marches leading up to their biggest missile launch yet, only for it to explode on the launch pad. The massive loss of life along with the fallout would lead to a humanitarian crisis I imagine. Not sure how to best handle something like that.
You don't use live nukes in these missile launches. And even if you do, they don't just go off like that. We have had airplanes crash with nukes in them and nothing happened.
 

Ushojax

Should probably not trust the 7-11 security cameras quite so much
I agree totally. In the present moment, NK is not a power player.

But there is no endgame to this NK situation. We have this feeling of military superiority/containment over them, but how long is this supposed to last, exactly? Decades? Centuries?

If there is never a point to initate conflict with them and neutralize them, then they will grow to become something that maybe is a kind of minor power someday. Long term, they might emerge as something worth paying attention to.

I suppose that long term the hope is that the military leadership will eventually oust the Kim family and slowly move away from the Juche ideal of North Korea. Who knows if that will ever happen.
 

Volphied

Member
I worry about this too. I imagine them doing their big parade and marches leading up to their biggest missile launch yet, only for it to explode on the launch pad. The massive loss of life along with the fallout would lead to a humanitarian crisis I imagine. Not sure how to best handle something like that.

All nuclear bombs have locks and failsafes to prevent accidental detonation. These are only removed immediately before use. For example, the nukes that fell on Japan had their locks removed only mid-flight over the ocean.

I think there was an incident in the US where a military plane carrying a nuke crashed, yet the nuke didn't detonate thanks to the lock.
 

dextran

Member
All nuclear bombs have locks and failsafes to prevent accidental detonation. These are only removed immediately before use. For example, the nukes that fell on Japan had their locks removed only mid-flight over the ocean.

I think there was an incident in the US where a military plane carrying a nuke crashed, yet the nuke didn't detonate thanks to the lock.

USA nukes have locks but who's to say North Korea builds them the same way. They're not exactly following international guidelines.
 

BocoDragon

or, How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Realize This Assgrab is Delicious
the funny then is, if they want to become that, they actually need to transform their country into a more modern and capitalistic state, which makes them less dangerous to others.

I suppose that long term the hope is that the military leadership will eventually oust the Kim family and slowly move away from the Juche ideal of North Korea. Who knows if that will ever happen.

My hope is that NK's increasing military might will help them to develop a sense of security and self-determination that would allow them political freedom to move toward market reforms and more open borders. I don't know if this would happen, though.
 
Agreed with the previous comments above me, the allusion that the US and NK are similar to Europe's relation with Soviet Russia isn't apt.

That's my point.

The only reason to be really afraid right now is that Americans thought it would be a splendid idea to elect an impulsive ape as their president who thinks negotiating is not a solution but a sign of weakness.
 

Volphied

Member
USA nukes have locks but who's to say North Korea builds them the same way. They're not exactly following international guidelines.

There's absolutely no rational reason for NK to omit safety locks.

You think that all the NK politicians and generals would be fine standing next to an unsecured nuke? They're brutal and oppressive, but they aren't morons or suicidal.

As I said earlier in this thread, the sad fact right now is that the current leader of NK is more rational than the manbaby in the White House.
 

Domaje

Member
Yes, it was the US who provoked North Korea in invading South Korea in 1950.

It was the US who invaded Hungary, Czechoslovakia, and Poland during the Cold War.

Stop US, stop it!
Lmao. Have you got the slightest idea of the amount of shit that the US have done in the last 70 years?

Like actively supporting genocide and stuff?
 
This pretty much confirms SK is fucked the moment NK gets attacked.

At least Seoul would be annihilated with or without nukes, that much hasn't changed. New is the threat for Japan and other countries in the area, and - inevitably - US soil itself at some point.
 

norinrad

Member
There will never be a point where North Korea can survive in an actual war again. It will have the combined power of South Korea, Japan, the US and maybe more against it. There is no winning there, just enough damage and lives lost to not make anyone want to attack North Korea first.

As long as they have a somewhat rational leader, or at least some generals around him to shoot the guy if he goes crazy, nothing will happen.

They are bordered in by Russia, China and South Korea. None of those are countries where they can get away with doing anything against them. Bigger danger is them selling their nuclear knowledge to parties we don't want it sold to.

Again you can't go to war in the backyard of Russia and China. You will lose and it would be disastrous.

Within the last 50 years, the US has lost every war where Russia rears its head. In NK you will be fighting China and Russia. The US, Japan and SK are not going to win such a war.
The US army is also stretched thin. Diplomacy is the best option here.
 

RoKKeR

Member
This pretty much confirms SK is fucked the moment NK gets attacked.
I mean, this was true regardless of NK's ability to build a nuke. They could do susbtantial damage with conventional weapons alone.

This saga is intensely worrying and I can't see how a resolution might play out.
 
Lmao. Have you got the slightest idea of the amount of shit that the US have done in the last 70 years?

Like actively supporting genocide and stuff?
Russia did not invade those countries because the US was doing shit somewhere else. The events are unrelated. You can blame the US for a lot, but not for the actions of Russia or North Korea. Those are the actions of those nations and their decisions. To somehow shift that blame to the US is a very strange thing to do, as if those nations are only capable of reactionary actions and no decision making themselves.

Again you can't go to war in the backyard of Russia and China. You will lose and it would be disastrous.
This depends on how the events unfold. China will not step in if North Korea is the one attacking first. Russia has nothing to gain from it also.

And just the same, because of China and Russia, North Korea has limited capability of what to do in the region because they can't really risk their relation with those two too much.

So nothing will happen either way, unless North Korea is really crazy enough to strike first, but I don't believe they are.
 

norinrad

Member
The last person that could have taken Kim out of power was his aunt's husband. We all know how he met his end. The generals around him know they have nothing to lose either. Offering them and their families amnesty won't work because they are aware the West cannot be trusted and they are most likely going to end up in prison.
 

Dinskugga

Member
Russia did not invade those countries because the US was doing shit somewhere else. The events are unrelated. You can blame the US for a lot, but not for the actions of Russia or North Korea. Those are the actions of those nations and their decisions. To somehow shift that blame to the US is a very strange thing to do, as if those nations are only capable of reactionary actions and no decision making themselves.


I live in sweden. And because of US/Nato are expanding in sweden/EU and moving bases/shitload of military around russia. Russia move their military muscles too. Protecting their borders.

Do you see the connection? . What do you think Usa would do if Russia put up an base outside their door. I would love to hear a good answer to that.
 
I live in sweden. And because of US/Nato are expanding in sweden/EU and moving bases/shitload of military around russia. Russia move their military muscles too. Protecting their borders.

Do you see the connection? . What do you think Usa would do if Russia put up an base outside their door. I would love to hear a good answer to that.
But then you are saying that those nations surrounding Russia should not be free to choose their own allies. Which is basically saying they should be fine with functioning as a "buffer zone" for Russia until the end of days. This is not something you can ask of a nation. They are free to choose in which direction to take their country. Would you be OK with Russia deciding Swedish foreign policy?

Also, the recent movement of NATO material to the Russian border is very much a response to Russian aggression.

You might also want to look at the reason the former Eastern Bloc rushed to get into NATO and the EU, and did not seek closer ties with Russia again.
 

Audioboxer

Member
BBC:



They know what's up. We have always been locked in a state of perpetual sabre-rattling but now that Trump is in the mix it's a bit more alarming. Unlike the NK leadership he is not predictable.

Trump doesn't want to die either.

I know you can never be 100% sure, but in situations, with most dictators, they want to remain alive and in control of their country/wealth/power. Sabre-rattling is the cause of just about anything 99.9% of the time. America being the powerhouse it is with army, bombs, weapons, nukes and so on means if anyone did first strike against the US they better be happy being dead. As in completely wiped out dead.

That's the real fear in this world if you ask me, if a maniac who doesn't fear death (maybe a religious fanatic) gets ahold of nuclear weapons. You see how many terrorists these days don't fear death, they actually approve of martyrdom and meeting their end. Religious fanaticism with nukes is far more worrying than a small chubby dictator who wants to feel more powerful than he ever can be.

All of that being said I still support nuclear disarmament in the country I live in because it's a waste of money and most dictators around the world still won't 1st strike even if you have no nukes. They'll still most likely meet their death because the world as a collective isn't going to sit idle as a dictator fires off nukes. If someone did fire a nuke I'd go as far to say the moral plan to rid of them would still be conventional missles/ground and sea attacks. Nuclear weapons just kill far too many innocents. Even more innocents than conventional war.
 

BumRush

Member
Dumb question, but isn't setting off a nuclear bomb in your own country (a relatively small country area-wise) potentially hazardous with nuclear fallout and other things that occur? I mean, wind drift has to carry some of that to the people (or China), no?
 

D4Danger

Unconfirmed Member
Dumb question, but isn't setting off a nuclear bomb in your own country (a relatively small country area-wise) potentially hazardous with nuclear fallout and other things that occur? I mean, wind drift has to carry some of that to the people (or China), no?

it was underground.
 

PusherT

Junior Member
I can't wait till other rouge nations start to get nuclear arms its done amazing t hings for NK. Iran must be extremely excited to get nukes since the USA won't do shit.
 
Dumb question, but isn't setting off a nuclear bomb in your own country (a relatively small country area-wise) potentially hazardous with nuclear fallout and other things that occur? I mean, wind drift has to carry some of that to the people (or China), no?

They are definitely irradiating their own land and possibly their own people to some extent throughout possible ground water contamination and air irradiation, but these detonations are performed underground both to inhibit US surveillance and limit collateral damage.

Also I doubt very much that the regime gives a fuck about the civilian population at all, especially given their track record of human rights abuses.
 
At least Seoul would be annihilated with or without nukes, that much hasn't changed. New is the threat for Japan and other countries in the area, and - inevitably - US soil itself at some point.
Seoul wont be destroyed. You gravely overestimate how powerful their artillery guns are. Even a nuke wouldnt destroy Seoul.
 

BumRush

Member
They are definitely irradiating their own land and possibly their own people to some extent throughout possible ground water contamination and air irradiation, but these detonations are performed underground both to inhibit US surveillance and limit collateral damage.

Also I doubt very much that the regime gives a fuck about the civilian population at all, especially given their track record of human rights abuses.

Thanks, that's what I figured. So messed up.
 

D4Danger

Unconfirmed Member
But none of that gets out, into drinking water, etc?

maybe a bit but I would assume it's done away from important areas like this (edit: or they don't care). Underground testing is considered a lot safer because the bomb itself would create a tomb and prevent fallout from escaping into the atmosphere.
 

Costa Kid

Member
I love that this is always the response. No I don't have any bright fucking ideas and I wish I did. Waiting around doesn't seem to be working, that's all I know.
Waiting around = no war, no death, and no destruction.
Attacking NK = immédiate destruction of Seoul, and more.

Kim isn't gonna attack anybody. He knows his country can be flattened in an instant if he tries anything.
 

kingkaiser

Member
That escalation is just the logical conclusion to G.W. Bush's "Axis of Evil" speech and the Iraq Invasion. This guy fucked up the US foreign policy that much even the Donald would have a hard time matching that.
 
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