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BBC: Tremor is detected in North Korea (up: nuclear test conducted)

Mesousa

Banned
Waiting around = no war, no death, and no destruction.
Attacking NK = immédiate destruction of Seoul, and more.

Kim isn't gonna attack anybody. He knows his country can be flattened in an instant if he tries anything.

Except for the North Koreans who have to live under his crippling fist.
 

BumRush

Member
maybe a bit but I would assume it's done away from important areas like this (edit: or they don't care). Underground testing is considered a lot safer because the bomb itself would create a tomb and prevent fallout from escaping into the atmosphere.

Ok, thanks for the clarification.
 

DrFurbs

Member
Surely there are anti (missile) batteries that can all but negate conventional threats. I mean I seen the stuff Israel has and it's amazing. Surely a couple hundred of these around the region would (mostly) stop any air borne threats?

Personally, the US should sail their biggest aircraft carriers to sea of Japan as a show of force. I'm no fan of this nonsense, but the Kim's need to be stopped.
 

Lonely1

Unconfirmed Member
Surely there are anti (missile) batteries etch can all but negate conventional threats. I mean I seen the stuff Israel has and it's amazing. Surely a couple hundred of these around the region would (mostly) stop any air borne threats?

Personally, the US should fail their biggest aircraft carriers to sea of Japan as a show of force. I'm no fan of this nonsense, but the Kim's need to be stopped.
No, they would not.
 

Woo-Fu

Banned
I worry about this too. I imagine them doing their big parade and marches leading up to their biggest missile launch yet, only for it to explode on the launch pad. The massive loss of life along with the fallout would lead to a humanitarian crisis I imagine. Not sure how to best handle something like that.

The warheads don't go on the missiles until they intend to actually use them against somebody. The missiles in the parades probably aren't even fueled.
 

Lonely1

Unconfirmed Member
Care to explain why not? I don't fully understand this technology or why it would/wouldn't.
Its a very difficult problem. You have to intercept a small object traveling at match++ speed with little warning. Such systems do exist, but their reliability is bellow 50%. So, you are not (mostly) stop any air borne threats.

Think it like this: you are trying to shoot down a bullet with another bullet.
 

Woo-Fu

Banned
Surely there are anti (missile) batteries that can all but negate conventional threats. I mean I seen the stuff Israel has and it's amazing. Surely a couple hundred of these around the region would (mostly) stop any air borne threats?

The problem with anti-missile batteries is that you can't afford to build so many of them that they can't be saturated. Israel is a different situation, they only have to shoot down a handful of targets in any given engagement. According to wikipedia they had 10 Iron Dome batteries as of 2014.

North Korea on the other hand can fill the sky with shells directed at SK.

Even if "hundreds" would get the job done---and I don't think they would---there isn't anybody willing to pay for them. And even then you'd need something a lot more capable than Iron Dome to stop ICBMS. And even then NK has any number of less flashy ways to deliver a nuke to Seoul if they so desired.

The only real defense is MAD, which is where we're at now. NK does a first strike on anybody, the rest of the world obliterates NK.
 

Lonely1

Unconfirmed Member
The problem with anti-missile batteries is that you can't afford to build so many of them that they can't be saturated. Israel is a different situation, they only have to shoot down a handful of targets in any given engagement. According to wikipedia they had 10 Iron Dome batteries as of 2014.

North Korea on the other hand can fill the sky with shells directed at SK.

Even if "hundreds" would get the job done---and I don't think they would---there isn't anybody willing to pay for them.

And are Israeli batteries even that effective at shooting down Hezbollah's and HAMAS DIY rockets? As far as I know, they very often hit Israel, but since they are low tech, they mostly hit empty lots and have little explosive power anyway.
 

Arttemis

Member
Nothing.

North Korea is under the control of the Kim family. Their objection is to remain in power and alive. They don't stay in power and alive if they launch a nuclear weapon at a US ally, they die in a horrible nuclear explosion. They don't stay in power and alive if the US invades them, so they have a nuclear weapon to deter US invasion. They won't first-strike, they will second-strike - exactly the same as the US.

This is a stalemate situation. That's the point of MAD. Sometimes 'do nothing' is the only acceptable policy option.

Anyone advocating for a US military invasion is deranged. You're condemning much of the population of South Korea to a horrible death and inviting war with China.
And then they start selling nuclear weapons on a black market in secret meetings, like how Pakistan sold them their materials.
 

Woo-Fu

Banned
And are Israeli batteries even that effective at shooting down Hezbollah's and HAMAS DIY rockets? As far as I know, they very often hit Israel, but since they are low tech, they mostly hit empty lots and have little explosive power anyway.

They claim 90% effectiveness vs. the targets they choose to engage.
 
And are Israeli batteries even that effective at shooting down Hezbollah's and HAMAS DIY rockets? As far as I know, they very often hit Israel, but since they are low tech, they mostly hit empty lots and have little explosive power anyway.

Yes, even mortar rounds can get stopped by the Iron Dome.
 

Firemind

Member
Waiting around = no war, no death, and no destruction.
Attacking NK = immédiate destruction of Seoul, and more.

Kim isn't gonna attack anybody. He knows his country can be flattened in an instant if he tries anything.
He can however sell the technology to IS who will use it without abandon.
 

Volphied

Member
Except for the North Koreans who have to live under his crippling fist.

As opposed to the humanitarian catastrophe that will ensue after US invasion?

Who's gonna deal with the millions of refugees streaming into China? Who's gonna pay to fix a wrecked country? The US? The US can't even stabilize Iraq and Afghanistan. But third time's a charm, eh?
 

Doc Holliday

SPOILER: Columbus finds America
He can however sell the technology to IS who will use it without abandon.

He could have done that years ago, he's had nuclear material for a while now.

This is a tough one, no way around it. The best solution is putting pressure on China, real pressure. Not just lip service.

It will hurt us economically but I see no other way to fix this without massive bloodshed.
 
The goal should be to enforce the status quo. The fear of US retaliation has stopped NK from seeking conquest of SK. Keeping the regime behavior limited to self preservation is the least bad outcome (countless N Koreans will still suffer for the foreseeable future). Biggest issue is them changing course and focusing on militarization because they feel like the US is stepping back.
 

Volphied

Member
He can however sell the technology to IS who will use it without abandon.

Does North Korea have diplomatic relations with IS? Does IS even have any spare money to pay for nukes?

Just asking, coz right now IS is in Hitler-bunker mode, due to losing most of their territory and their capitol under siege.

Also, last time I checked North Korea was an ally of Assad. I don't think they'll suddenly decide to give nukes to their enemy.
 
Even NK isn't that stupid, they would have zero control were the device would be used. There is no guarantee it wouldn't be used against their allies

Syria has been a prime customer of North Korean missiles and I'm sure Assad would love to have some missiles that can hit Paris or Berlin.
 

lemmykoopa

Junior Member
Would Kim even bother selling Nuke tech to terrorists or other rogue nations? That would make the world burn. Doesn't he first and foremost care about upholding North Korean regime and nothing else?
 
In the previous threads there were debates on military action and response, and the fact that NK could have already developed miniaturized nukes that could be loaded and used for retaliatory strikes. I mentioned that if that were the case, NK would have already publicly flaunted such an advancement in their tech in order to starve off any possible strike by the US.

If this is true, and I don't really have much to doubt it is based on previous assessments within the last year that they were getting close to such advancements, then it's already game over in terms of any type of military strike, regardless of the arsenal of weapons they already have that can hit Japan and SK.

It's going to be mighty interesting to see how fucking Trump of all people deal with a new nuclear power. Fun times ahead
 

Firemind

Member
Does North Korea have diplomatic relations with IS? Does IS even have any spare money to pay for nukes?

Just asking, coz right now IS is in Hitler-bunker mode, due to losing most of their territory and their capitol under siege.

Also, last time I checked North Korea was an ally of Assad. I don't think they'll suddenly decide to give nukes to their enemy.
Assad, Al Qaida. Not sure if that's any better.

Would Kim even bother selling Nuke tech to terrorists or other rogue nations? That would make the world burn. Doesn't he first and foremost care about upholding North Korean regime and nothing else?
Sure, if sanctions continue. He needs money and resources too.
 

qcf x2

Member
I'm shocked that Trump's threats and tweets did not work.

Shocked.

Nothing has worked, this isn't a new scenario.

In the previous threads there were debates on military action and response, and the fact that NK could have already developed miniaturized nukes that could be loaded and used for retaliatory strikes. I mentioned that if that were the case, NK would have already publicly flaunted such an advancement in their tech in order to starve off any possible strike by the US.

If this is true, and I don't really have much to doubt it is based on previous assessments within the last year that they were getting close to such advancements, then it's already game over in terms of any type of military strike, regardless of the arsenal of weapons they already have that can hit Japan and SK.

It's going to be mighty interesting to see how fucking Trump of all people deal with a new nuclear power. Fun times ahead

The problem with a nuclear armed NK that wins this war of rhetoric/posturing is that they inevitably will go from deterrance to making demands of their neighbors....because it's working, nukes are finally getting them the fear and attention they have always wanted.

edit: China may be the only hope of a non military resolution, but I feel like they are harboring thoughts of opportunistic outcomes, ie land grabs in the aftermath of war, or at the very least a reduced US presence in the region to get NK to back down.
 
This pretty much confirms SK is fucked the moment NK gets attacked.
No it wouldnt. North Korean artillery batteroes would be focused more on military targets. Their objective is yo survive. Besides US and ROK forces would devastate artillery batteries and Seoul is meant to withstand those attacks. Thore are a shit ton of shelters. They know what to do during an attack.
 

pulsemyne

Member
Would Kim even bother selling Nuke tech to terrorists or other rogue nations? That would make the world burn. Doesn't he first and foremost care about upholding North Korean regime and nothing else?

Your talking about a country that recent assasinated someone with VX nerve gas in a foreign country.
NK makes a huge amount of money through criminal enterprises.
 

TarNaru33

Banned
Its a very difficult problem. You have to intercept a small object traveling at match++ speed with little warning. Such systems do exist, but their reliability is bellow 50%. So, you are not (mostly) stop any air borne threats.

Think it like this: you are trying to shoot down a bullet with another bullet.


Your percentage of reliability is pulled straight from your ass, dude. To be clear, the success rate of interception is above 50% even for U.S systems, while Israel boast a 90% interception.

The problem with anti-missile batteries is that you can't afford to build so many of them that they can't be saturated. Israel is a different situation, they only have to shoot down a handful of targets in any given engagement. According to wikipedia they had 10 Iron Dome batteries as of 2014.

North Korea on the other hand can fill the sky with shells directed at SK.

Even if "hundreds" would get the job done---and I don't think they would---there isn't anybody willing to pay for them. And even then you'd need something a lot more capable than Iron Dome to stop ICBMS. And even then NK has any number of less flashy ways to deliver a nuke to Seoul if they so desired.

The only real defense is MAD, which is where we're at now. NK does a first strike on anybody, the rest of the world obliterates NK.

One Iron Dome battery holds 20 interceptors, so 200 interceptors possible at the moment. I find it funny you talking about the cost as if U.S can't afford a missile defense system lol.
 

Oriel

Member
I live in sweden. And because of US/Nato are expanding in sweden/EU and moving bases/shitload of military around russia. Russia move their military muscles too. Protecting their borders.

Do you see the connection? . What do you think Usa would do if Russia put up an base outside their door. I would love to hear a good answer to that.

Absolutely fuck all! Russia formally operated a SIGINT facility in Cuba which is rumoured to be reopened as well as preparing to open a naval base in Venezuela.
 

Joezie

Member
I live in sweden. And because of US/Nato are expanding in sweden/EU and moving bases/shitload of military around russia. Russia move their military muscles too. Protecting their borders.

I don't know if you know this, but I have something to tell you. Something that's going to blow your mind. Are you ready?

Did you know that....you can hold military exercises and flex your military muscle WITHOUT invading your neighbors? Amazing stuff right? Mindblowing really.
 
@KingstonAReif

KJU actions since "fire and fury":

-OK plan to test IRBMs at Guam
-Test 3 SRBMs
-Test IRBM ovr Japan
-Conduct 6th-and biggest-nuke test

Unknown what effect this new strategy of lecturing SK on twitter will yield.
 

Tovarisc

Member
DIz2gEpVYAAnG5H.jpg

https://twitter.com/Acosta/status/904368661988864000/photo/1
 

Scuffed

Member
This matter is so complicated. Nothing can be done to NK without a ton of casualties in SK but if we wait until he has full long range capabilities then millions of lives could be at risk. The saber rattling angle is real but the idea that that is all he is doing is giving him cover to test.
 

Matt

Member
No he's not. He's talking sense.
No, he's not. It's pure nonsense, and effectively international victim blaming. Russia and NK don't get to act aggressively towards their neighbors and then bitch about the efforts those neighbors take to protect themselves within their own borders.
 

Oriel

Member
Your percentage of reliability is pulled straight from your ass, dude. To be clear, the success rate of interception is above 50% even for U.S systems, while Israel boast a 90% interception.



One Iron Dome battery holds 20 interceptors, so 200 interceptors possible at the moment. I find it funny you talking about the cost as if U.S can't afford a missile defense system lol.

Iron Dome isn't designed to intercept MIRV's on their terminal phase from a ballistic trajectory. Warheads that are approaching from an altitude higher than what the ISS orbits at, with a reentry speed of 7km/s, multiple times faster than a bullet and next to impossible to hit. Literal orbital bombardment!

1024px-Minuteman_III_MIRV_path.svg.png
 

Chmpocalypse

Blizzard
Absolutely fuck all! Russia formally operated a SIGINT facility in Cuba which is rumoured to be reopened as well as preparing to open a naval base in Venezuela.

Well, Russia put a president* in the White House and fuck all has happened yet.**









**Mueller's working on it
 

TarNaru33

Banned
Iron Dome isn't designed to intercept MIRV's on their terminal phase from a ballistic trajectory. Warheads that are approaching from an altitude higher than what the ISS orbits at, with a reentry speed of 7km/s, multiple times faster than a bullet and next to impossible to hit. Literal orbital bombardment!

1024px-Minuteman_III_MIRV_path.svg.png

No country can as of this moment intercept MIRVs and interception of terminal phase of ballistic missiles is not even desirable. The goal was always to hit the missile during the boost phase or midcourse. A terminal interception is too risky and would only be for emergencies.
 

robochimp

Member
Surely there are anti (missile) batteries that can all but negate conventional threats. I mean I seen the stuff Israel has and it's amazing. Surely a couple hundred of these around the region would (mostly) stop any air borne threats?

Personally, the US should sail their biggest aircraft carriers to sea of Japan as a show of force. I'm no fan of this nonsense, but the Kim's need to be stopped.

Israel's Iron dome does not shoot down missles. It is for use against rockets and other small artillary.
 

Oriel

Member
No country can as of this moment intercept MIRVs and interception of terminal phase of ballistic missiles is not even desirable. The goal was always to hit the missile during the boost phase or midcourse. A terminal interception is too risky and would only be for emergencies.

Yeah, and even in the initial launch and boost phases tracking and intercepting a ballistic missile ia notoriously difficult. You have to have a whole interception regime in place in the Asia/Pacific region to do so, something the US is only now beginning to deploy. Even then there's no clear evidence to suggest THAAD, Aegis Onshore, etc would work consistently.

Finally if the aim was to simply obliterate Seoul in a nuclear strike all they'd have to do is copy the nuclear artillery system the US created. Almost impossible to take out an artillery shell....

757px-Upshot-Knothole_GRABLE.jpg
 
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