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Best holiday sales ever? (one prediction GTA:SA > 10 mil, Halo 2 > 8 mil)

Now those numbers are lifetime, worldwide, of course, not just this holiday season :D

Magic 8-Ball: "Looks likely"

With the upcoming holiday shopping season only a couple months away now, GameDAILYBiz dug deep to find out just exactly what the market will be like over the next several months.

Whippin' out the big guns
With titles like Grand Theft Auto: San Andreas, Halo 2, Half-Life 2, Gran Turismo 4, Metroid Prime 2: Echoes, and more on the horizon, this holiday clearly has the potential to break records. Will it be the busiest shopping season the video games industry has seen, and what game(s) will stand above the rest?

DFC Intelligence President, David Cole, says that it "should be a good holiday season," but that "sales will revolve around fewer titles." He believes that "unit sales will probably be up a little bit, but that revenue might be down a little bit just because of natural price declines."

David Riley, NPD Group's Senior Public Relations Manager "anticipates another great holiday season," as well, but he couldn't commit to any predictions. "It's too early to make projections."

Although Electronics Boutique was not willing to share any specific projections, an EBGames spokesperson did tell us that the company is "optimistic about the holiday season, particularly with so many great software titles launching this fall/holiday."

Don't be playa hatin', Master Chief
Both Halo 2 and GTA are "going to be huge" according to Cole, but he expects GTA: San Andreas to top the charts just like its predecessors. Cole told GameDAILYBiz, "Vice City sold, I believe, worldwide over 11 million units. So, I think San Andreas will definitely exceed 10 million on a worldwide basis." Because the Xbox doesn't have the same kind of installed base as the PlayStation 2, Cole sees Halo 2 selling fewer units; Halo 2 could sell as high as 50% or more of the user base, which would come to about 8 million units.

Riley isn't sure, however, that GTA will be the clear winner. He contends that "GTA is a great franchise...but it appeals to a specific audience and that's what limits it because it's an [M]-rated game; there's a lot of competition out there, and it's not like one's going to eat up the other because there's plenty of room for everyone."

[ "I think it's brilliant that Nintendo is coming out with the DS this year," David Riley, NPD Senior Public Relations Manager ]


Retail scramble
When we brought up the subject of how retailers might be preparing for all the hype surrounding the big name titles, and the big increase in foot traffic that goes along with that, Cole responded with, "The real interesting question is: will any retailers use these as loss leaders?—discount them and take a loss on the titles just to get people into their stores." He continued, "Every retailer is going to be stocking, trying to get their hands on as many units as possible."

Itz-a me, the DS!
This holiday isn't just about software, though. Nintendo's upcoming DS handheld is expected to launch in November, and will compete for consumer dollars along with everything else.

Riley believes that the Nintendo DS could have a big impact on holiday sales. "I think it's brilliant that Nintendo is coming out with the DS this year; it's really going to help drive sales." In addition to people snatching up the Nintendo DS—reportedly priced at $150—Riley sees console owners picking up one of the systems they don't currently own. The recent $30 price drops for the Xbox and PlayStation 2 and the $20 slash on the Game Boy Advance will "make a huge difference."

Bye, bye bank account
No matter who comes out on top, one thing is clear—there are more high-quality offerings scheduled for the next several months than we've seen in quite some time.

"What we've been seeing is kind of strange because every month has been a great month, and I think a lot of that has to do with the fact that developers are now just getting used to the engines that are driving these machines; they're able to code some beautiful games," said Riley.

Here's to selling some games!
 

DaCocoBrova

Finally bought a new PSP, but then pushed the demon onto someone else. Jesus.
Only 15 million XBOXs are in rotation. I don't see ~50% buying Halo 2. Not w/ piracy as rampant as it is.
 

DaCocoBrova

Finally bought a new PSP, but then pushed the demon onto someone else. Jesus.
I don't understand why Nintendo is even releasing the DS this year. Makes no sense to me. The SP is still hot in the eyes of the casuals.
 

Soul4ger

Member
So, how about each EB store has an expected pre-sale total of 1,000 copies of Halo 2? We've been taking them for two years now, and we only have 260-something. And by November 9 at midnight, they want each and every store to have, at least, 1,000. Apparently, they heard that all the GameStop stores already have that many, so they're panicking.
 

Speevy

Banned
DaCocoBrova said:
I don't understand why Nintendo is even releasing the DS this year. Makes no sense to me. The SP is still hot in the eyes of the casuals.


The built-in apartment microwave that is:

520-T-Sony-PSP-small.jpg
 
DaCocoBrova said:
Only 15 million XBOXs are in rotation. I don't see ~50% buying Halo 2. Not w/ piracy as rampant as it is.

Well, the 15.5 number is as of June 30th. I expect them to be upwards of 19 million by the end of the holiday. And again, this is a ~lifetime number, not just for those that currently own an Xbox. If Halo is any indication, Halo 2 will sell well for a VERY LONG TIME.
 

evil ways

Member
Riley isn't sure, however, that GTA will be the clear winner. He contends that "GTA is a great franchise...but it appeals to a specific audience and that's what limits it because it's an [M]-rated game

Halo 2 isn't rated M? And what audience besides FPS multiplayer fans does Halo reach?
 

Soul4ger

Member
evil ways said:
Halo 2 isn't rated M? And what audience besides FPS multiplayer fans does Halo reach?

As of right now, Halo 2 is "RP." INFO WAS NOT AVAILABLE AS OF PRESS TIME, YOU SHUT YOUR MOUTH.
 

Speevy

Banned
Is MS/Bungie still planning to cancel the series after 2?

If so, that's by far the dumbest move in the history of gaming.

It's like Nintendo saying just before the SNES generation "No more Marios or Zeldas."
 

segasonic

Member
sonycowboy said:
Riley isn't sure, however, that GTA will be the clear winner. He contends that "GTA is a great franchise...but it appeals to a specific audience and that's what limits it because it's an [M]-rated game[/b]; there's a lot of competition out there, and it's not like one's going to eat up the other because there's plenty of room for everyone."

Huh? Halo 2 is M-rated as well.
 

Brofist

Member
Speevy said:
The built-in apartment microwave that is:

520-T-Sony-PSP-small.jpg

errr hahaha?

Speevy said:
Is MS/Bungie still planning to cancel the series after 2?

If so, that's by far the dumbest move in the history of gaming.

It's like Nintendo saying just before the SNES generation "No more Marios or Zeldas."

I'm sure you're going to be the first to lose sleep if that was true.
 
segasonic said:
Huh? Halo 2 is M-rated as well.

I think it's pretty clear that there's a difference. Most parents don't know the ratings very well, but with all of the bad press, store workers are told to "warn" parents and they do. But it's pretty selective. GTA is "teh MATURE", whereas most other "M" just show killing, realistic fighting, etc.

GTA and Manhunt are just about the only games, I've witness where either the store worker said, this is for mature audiences or where the parent said, "No, you can't get that game (because they were too young)"

That being said, while some might be not allowed to buy "M" games, temporarily, it pushed alot more gamers towards buying those two aforementioned games. So, it's not going to hurt GTA:SA
 

Speevy

Banned
kpop100 said:
errr hahaha?


Not meant to be funny unless you actually find the fact that its buttons do look like those on a microwave humorous.


I'm sure you're going to be the first to lose sleep if that was true.


I remember reading it. I could be wrong. It was a while ago.
 

Brofist

Member
Speevy said:
Not meant to be funny unless you actually find the fact that its buttons do look like those on a microwave humorous..

ok lol...it was just the most random thing I've heard about the PSP
 

DarienA

The black man everyone at Activision can agree on
Riley isn't sure, however, that GTA will be the clear winner. He contends that "GTA is a great franchise...but it appeals to a specific audience and that's what limits it because it's an [M]-rated game; there's a lot of competition out there, and it's not like one's going to eat up the other because there's plenty of room for everyone."

Didn't we hear this with the previous GTA?
 

Brofist

Member
Riley isn't sure, however, that GTA will be the clear winner. He contends that "GTA is a great franchise...but it appeals to a specific audience and that's what limits it because it's an [M]-rated game; there's a lot of competition out there, and it's not like one's going to eat up the other because there's plenty of room for everyone.

a specific audience comprised of like 30 million people so far, yeah it's a real niche series :p
 

Lord Error

Insane For Sony
I would think that with GTA:SA going all the way into urban waters, they should garner even more attention. HipHop/Urban culture is absolutely huge right now, at least in the US. On the other hand, I think that Halo 1/2 appeal is both helped and damaged by their Sci-Fi setting. SciFi in general hasn't been too big as of late, but it clicks with the type of people who are actually buying games the most.
 
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