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Bitcoin price skyrockets, crashes, rinse, repeat, internet starts investing in tulips
- Thread starter tipoo
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ComputerMKII
Banned
Instead of buying lots of hardware to mine Bitcoins why don't people just use Amazon EC2 or Windows Azure?
Well bitcoin mining on general-purpose CPUs hasn't been effective for a very long time. It's still sort of effective on some altcoins, but the cost per cycle of ec2 and azure are nowhere near competitive. You'd pay amazon more money than the coins would be worth. The only time it makes sense is by hacking somebody's insecure account and running a bunch of servers. There has been at least one report of somebody discovering a giant bill from amazon, and then finding out somebody hacked his account and ran like 100 litecoin mining servers.
I think that was actually the guy who worked on improving scrypt mining on nvidia gpus to the point where it became profitable on their gpu instances. It isn't generally and it definitely isn't right now, it was only really worth it for the short period ltc was above $40 and the difficulty hadn't ramped up much yet. And that was with spot priced instances, so it only really lasted as long as no one knew.
The real problem is that there aren't a lot of those gpu instances so if it becomes profitable they get filled up fast with miners and the spot price fluctuates back up to meet the value of the coin.
All that said timing the pricing to the current value of the coin is only really useful if you can get it into real currency in a timely manner. Not impossible by any stretch, but a lot of people are mining with an expectation of a higher value than the current price. Still probably not worth using ec2 instances even then, though.
ComputerMKII
Banned
bistromathics
facing a bright new dawn
we above $800 again ^_^
with the change that Evillore has sunk into this endeavor, I'm curious to know if he's got a mental checkpoint set for when to sell. I'm also wondering how other people deal with the swings - if you've already invested money at a certain amount and you're in it for the long haul...when it drops back to that initial amount (or lower, or just slightly higher) do you double down and buy more?
with the change that Evillore has sunk into this endeavor, I'm curious to know if he's got a mental checkpoint set for when to sell. I'm also wondering how other people deal with the swings - if you've already invested money at a certain amount and you're in it for the long haul...when it drops back to that initial amount (or lower, or just slightly higher) do you double down and buy more?
My guess is people with Christmas money buying plus people who currently have them not wanting to sell yet.
It's a complete mystery to me. It seems like China is buying again.
Maybe one last pump & dump until they sell everything off before Jan 31?
Fury Sense
Member
no idea. it had been rising very slowly and steadily before it picked up the pace & volume the past two days. on the blockchain.info chat, people always talk about the "weekend drop" and maybe that concept stretches so far that everyone took this weekend as the time to buy. i wish i had the link that showed trading volume by geography / ip on a map
going forward... i predict it's going up. i said this somewhere else but i think it's likely it will reach 10k in just a couple years. as far as day trading, fuck it. if the price goes below 700$, instabuy. really hoping i can get back in on this racket at a "low" point. even at 800 it's probably good
toxicgonzo
Taxes?! Isn't this the line for Metallica?
Probably the announcement that Zynga was going to test bitcoin in some of their games
bistromathics
facing a bright new dawn
You don't think another crash is imminent? Since 1k has already been broken, you think it'll keep rising past that? I wast kinda thinking about cashing out at 1k and waiting for another dip to re-invest.
criesofthepast
Member
I bought in some bitcoins at under $700 to go along with my few hundred litecoins. I'm set for now. Can afford to sit on them. Still playing with house money. Now I wait. A year. Two. Haven't decided yet what the price needs to be for me to sell. I do know I will trade those bitcoins for litecoins if litecoins drop below $15 again. I may even sell the bitcoins now as I'm up and I don't really want to deal with them. Will keep the profit in fiat and wait for the $15 litecoin price. I personally don't want to deal much in bitcoins.
Stop listening to everyone's predictions. Hold long term and you'll be fine.
Stop listening to everyone's predictions. Hold long term and you'll be fine.
Fury Sense
Member
Well, I'm hoping for, expecting, and waiting for a crash, but I have no idea when it will happen or how low it'll go, so I'm just trying to be ready. i think what you've said is solid. you can never plan to sell AT the peak, so having the discipline to take something good and not regret missing something great is quite commendable. One thing we do know is that once it approaches/passes 1.2k (and it will) there is going to be some big news coverage and accompanying volume. Those ill-timed buyers will be able to get off the roller coaster if they want to.
Part of me thinks the original investors will sell en masse and drop the price, but another part of me thinks that after the holidays and having achieved a greater awareness than ever before, btc will rise as new buyers do the same as the previous wave that wanted to go to the moon.
I should add that my previous posts all referenced the bitstamp/coinbase price, but this one relates to Mt.Gox. IMO The biggest threat right now is that a major online wallet or trade platform could be hacked/robbed or seized/shut down. Could really hurt confidence.
This is probably the best advice. I don't think cryptocurrencies are going away, and they all have a looooong way to go.
bistromathics
facing a bright new dawn
or do the smart thing and blow it all on hard drugs
ProfessorLobo
Banned
I bought 10 bitcoins at $1000 each a day before it crashed to 500. I'm not buying anymore and I'm considering myself lucky if I make a little money.
BTC will break the ATH in a few days I reckon. I'm sure there will be another crash, but depending how high this rally gets, around $900-1000 could even be the new low. You just never know with Bitcoin. I'm in this long term, not looking for quick profits, so I just hold, a lot safer than selling and trying to buy back in lower.
D
Deleted member 1235
Unconfirmed Member
I've managed to hold all my litecoins entirely through the crash. I got em at 24 euro and they dropped next day to around the 7 euro mark. that sucked massively, right now they touching 22 euro again though which is nice. tossed around the idea of buying alot more when they dropped to 7 and ultimately decided against it due to that getting a little near the top of my 'play money' zone.
Of course I'm now kicking myself. Even toyed with the idea of just grabbing a shit load of NMC while it was around 1 euro. it's at 8 now :/
criesofthepast
Member
I've been getting in bit of day trading today with ltc as things have seemed fairly stable the past few days. Playing just 30-50 cent swings back and forth. Buy at 25 sell at 25.30/25.50. Repeat. Enough to cover fees plus gain a few dollars. I'm up 5 LTC. Not recommending anyone do this but playing swings that small there isn't much risk when things seem stable and quiet. I wouldn't do it everyday but I've been monitoring it jump back and forth and decided to do it. $150 a day beats most jobs and just sitting at home. I can see in a stable market how day traders make a good living (with stocks.)
catapult37
Member
How much time do you think you spend on this each day? I've been curious about the potential of getting into LTC at this stage.
criesofthepast
Member
I am not doing this all day. I have school. I am not experienced with this stuff by any means so do not follow what I do. For $150 profit a day you'd have to have at least about $1500-$2000 worth of coins to play with by the way, if your playing small sways of about 30-50 cents (I think.) I'm also not playing with all my coins. Most are offline cold storage being held for the mid-long future.
Day trading in crypto is probably a disaster waiting to happen BTW. Lol
Seems like kind of a headache for your taxes.
criesofthepast
Member
I will definitely be giving the CRA (Canadian IRS) a call when I am filing my taxes next year. I'm keeping track of all my trades and profits and what not. Don't want to mess around with not claiming properly and get bitten. I believe through very preliminary research that capital gains tax in canada is around 10% for my tax bracket (lowest poor student) on the first 50% of profit. So if someone profited $5000 in a year they'd pay 10% of $2500 or around $250 in total taxes on that $5000.
bistromathics
facing a bright new dawn
gah, what happened to that steady climb? was gettin used to it.
I seriously doubt moat people are going to claim gains on their taxes lol. Losses on the other hand.
The currency is to volatile to do that. Bitcoin needs to stabilize if it wants to be a serious currency. It can't do those 50 percent swings every month. Its also going to come down to how the banking industry takes to it. Fortess is starting a bitcoin fund which could drive the price up a ton but will cause another huge bubble like we say with the housing market and dot com
That's the problem with an inherently deflationary currency like bitcoin - it incentivize speculation which leads to volatility which further incentivize speculation.
empty vessel
Member
But what they haven't apparently figured out yet, but will soon enough, is that while individual digital currencies are deflationary due to limitations put on their production, the actual supply of digital currency writ large is infinite. That means supply is infinite, which means digital coins are worthless. You might get lucky speculating in bitcoin if you can accurately predict the moment when people realize it is worthless will occur and get out just before then. But the true believers. Man, the true believers...
Thats why i have major issues investing any serious amount of money into it. One day you can wake up it being worthless.
bistromathics
facing a bright new dawn
We get pretty big swings with BTC, but to go from $$$ to worthless overnight is a bit much. As far as I can tell - unless you're buying in on an upswing - there's always at least a grace period of downturn to give you enough time to decide for yourself if this is the "big one" and whether or not you should cash out while you can still turn a profit.
Extra Sauce
Member
This thread makes me feel like I'm taking crazy pills!
your just jealouse
I agree tons of money to make, if you wanna do some day trading and quick sales. But at a huge risk.
The collapse will be just that- a collapse. It wouldn't even make sense for BTC to slowly decline in value. There may be a mini collapse (let's say value drops to 500 and holds steady) before a main one, but once its value starts crashing, I'd get out fast.
MikeHattsu
Member
Transfer the LTC to your Coinedup account and then trade for something else.
D
Deleted member 1235
Unconfirmed Member
it's now crashing again.
To be fair, any resource is functionally infinite. There are probably trillions upon trillions of pounds of gold in the universe, but almost none of it matters because we can't get to it. Similarly, a mathematical model may allow for infinite currency, but if achieving usable states becomes increasingly difficult then an infinite nature may not matter.
Bitcoin is valuable because of it's relatively high adoption rate and the network effect that comes along with it. A new cryptocurrency will have to offer major improvements to dethrone it.
So it's a bubble, in the same way that New York real estate is a bubble. It wouldn't be so valuable without all the other people and businesses there. Everybody could relocate to a cheaper, more suitable locale, but very few will.
Also, miners have invested many millions of dollars in specialized hardware. It's highly unlikely they would redeploy their business.
You don't pay for things with NY real estate though.
Volatility and deflationary design are serious drawbacks for a currency.
Fury Sense
Member
i INVENTED the piano key necktie! i invented it!
anyway, i bought 2 btc at 800.56 yesterday. i'm holding and holding. if i don't update, i'm still holding.
D
Deleted member 1235
Unconfirmed Member
you can't pay for real things with anything but bitcoin and litecoin
you're oversimplifying this. Bitcoin may not exist in 20 years, but the technical achievement that is bitcoin has already founded some incredible stuff.
look at the piratebay browser tech for implications for example.
like it or not, bitcoin will remain the 'gold standard' for crypto. I think a lot of the 'currencies' will kind of flounder away, but bitcoin/litecoin have more of a future than you seem to think is my guess.
criesofthepast
Member
Overstock.com now officially accepting bitcoins. News just hit. Hold on to your bits. Things just skyrocketed.
I'm no expert on tax fraud, but I assume that these exchanges must make filings with the government, and I would think that the government would be especially on the lookout for this type of transaction, since btc is so linked to money laundering.
If you are doing day-trading, it probably also appears as if you are making a lot more money than you actually are if they only look at income and not expenses.
http://consumerist.com/2014/01/10/s...stock-com-accepts-the-currency/#more-10148364
well, this isn't crashing to $500 anymore is it....
bistromathics
facing a bright new dawn
:lol
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