And this is what I've feared the whole time. Despite rave reviews and white-hot buzz in the film twitter bubble, Blade Runner 2049 is turning into (at least) a domestic whiff because general audiences didn't care. The very expensive ($155 million, after rebates) sci-fi sequel to a film that was itself a (somewhat) acclaimed bomb is essentially playing like Ridley Scott's ”for the fans" Alien: Covenant. The Ryan Gosling/Harrison Ford futuristic tone poem earned just $12.7m yesterday, including $4m (31%) in Thursday previews alone. Barring surprising legs akin to the far more crowd-pleasing Kong: Skull Island, we're looking at a $32m debut weekend, which is less than this May's botched Prometheus sequel/Alien prequel. At best, it'll tie Alien: Convenant's $36m debut. So much for the Rotten Tomatoes effect.
The lesson boils down to budget. It's not handwringing about audiences rejecting intelligent adult fare, and it's not quite a rant about Netflix and VOD gobbling up adult moviegoers. If you want to make a sequel to Blade Runner, don't make it so bloody expensive that it has to play like a sequel to Star Wars. That Blade Runner 2049 will outgross Blade Runner in the first weekend and still be a borderline flop says it all.
