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Blu Ray and HD-DVD Could Both Fail

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Stinkles

Clothed, sober, cooperative
I posted this in a TV thread, but I reckon it bears some discussion.

Blu Ray and HD DVD are the MOST complicated format shift ever.



HDMI and HDCP are supposed to be compatible. In reality though, there are differences and the combination of technology and lawyers invariably fucks the consumer. Consoles right now are scheduled to use everything for games, but only HDMI for hi-def movies.


To be honest, the adoption of Blu-Ray is entirely dependent on what Hollywood is prepared to give up. If they insist on HDMI for movie playback, they have to suck up an interminably slow adoption rate, possibly followed by failure - THIS is Sony's/Toshiba's huge gambit, not the tech or even the movie libraries - and if they go with component (for movie playback), then they have to concede their (exaggerated) piracy issue.

HD-DVD wouldn't have any advantage here, since HDMI would be mandated by the studios for that format too.

It is however a fair possibility that Hollywood will fuck itself in the ass with this shit.

Bear in mind that this forum represents the top percentile of people who understand this shit too. Imagine this conversation happening at Best Buy with your mom.
 
Don't forget that DVDs have hit their stride the past 2-3 years. Convincing consumers to go to a new format when they're just getting into one is going to be a hard sell. Hard as in damn near impossible. Studios better not be betting the farm on these formats or else they will lose out. HD-DVD and BR discs will be accepted in a few years but for now, its DVD's turn.
 
DVD just overtook VHS in rental sales for the first time in like January 2004.

It's just too early to switch formats. The general public won't be buying everything all over again.. again, so soon.
 
Just like DVD, I'm pretty sure blu-ray will start off slow. Eventually a must-have blu-ray disc(like the matrix did for DVDs) will appear and sales will skyrocket. People are going to make the change to HD movies sooner or later anyways...with HDTVs sales climbing and more HD channels appearing soon enough DVDs will start to look ugly. :P
 
Stinkles said:
It is however a fair possibility that Hollywood will fuck itself in the ass with this shit.
Click to expand...


Truer words have never been spoken.

My guess is that they won't realize how fucked they are until DVD revenues have completely bottomed out.
 
Zeo said:
DVD just overtook VHS in rental sales for the first time in like January 2004.

It's just too early to switch formats. The general public won't be buying everything all over again.. again, so soon.
Click to expand...
Unlike the switch from VHS, these new HD players can still play existing DVD movies. There will be no need to re-buy your old collection. I think THAT might help somewhat...

You can play the new HD films if you have an HDTV without leaving behind your collection.

Using HDMI only is a HUUUUGE mistake, though. The vast majority of consumer HDTV sets don't have such a port (I wonder if DVI converters will cause problems with the protection?). Luckily, I do have an HDMI port...but only one of them. HDMI switching super expensive right now as well...
 
Using HDMI only is a HUUUUGE mistake, though. The vast majority of consumer HDTV sets don't have such a port (I wonder if DVI converters will cause problems with the protection?). Luckily, I do have an HDMI port...but only one of them. HDMI switching super expensive right now as well...
Click to expand...


QFT.

No other format switch has required this level of intellectual complexity, expense, and difficulty. Forget library. CD required you buy a CD player and some CDs. VHS - same thing - player, tapes.

You didn't have to buy a new TV.
 
dark10x said:
Using HDMI only is a HUUUUGE mistake, though. The vast majority of consumer HDTV sets don't have such a port (I wonder if DVI converters will cause problems with the protection?). Luckily, I do have an HDMI port...but only one of them. HDMI switching super expensive right now as well...
Click to expand...

SUPER HUGE mistake. How many HDTVs sold so far even HAVE HDMI ports with HDCP? It's the early adopters that have HDTVs now, and it's going to be the early adopters that will pick up BR and probably get screwed.
 
HD-DVD is definitely screwed, especially 'cuz it's not in a game console. Blu Ray has a bit more chance since Sony's planning on putting it in the PS3. That guarantees a certain installed base will have it, whether they have HDTVs yet or not.

What I think will invariably happen is that Blu Ray and HD-DVD will fail for movies or, as you say, suffer from a horribly slow adoption rate. Everyone's used to buying regular DVDs, and I doubt even after people have PS3s they'll be able to find whatever small selection of BR DVDs Best Buy will have in the corner with the forgotten DVD-Audio discs.

Blu Ray's storage capacity will be excellent for games, however.
 
dark10x said:
Using HDMI only is a HUUUUGE mistake, though. The vast majority of consumer HDTV sets don't have such a port (I wonder if DVI converters will cause problems with the protection?). Luckily, I do have an HDMI port...but only one of them. HDMI switching super expensive right now as well...
Click to expand...


I agree, but I don't think the studios will have it any other way. From my understanding, the only alternative at this point is to pipe down-rezzed content over component.
 
I'm not jumping ship until all of this shit settles down. There are too many competing technologies both for format (HD-DVD and BlueRay) as well as HDTV (Plasma, LCD, DLP projection and soon to be OLED).

I know once I buy something, something else is going to come out an eclipse it. CRTs have lasted for a very long time and they are still going. I want that sort of technology strength next gen.
 
I have 4 HDTV's, total cost me over $20k over the last 5 years. Last bought was $10k

I want HDDVD. I would buy likely 3...

None of My HDTV's have HDMI. 2 have DVI.

If there are ANY ISSUES WHATSOEVER with HDMI to DVI conversion, then FUCK YOU HOLLYWOOD!!! Sales of 3 DVD players, and likely hundreds of DVD's, kiss them goodbye. I'll stick with HD on demand.

Fucking piracy, whatever. Paranoid asshole industry more like it.
 
has anyone also forgtten the fact that blue rays are encased and if consumers want that kind of hassles. which in turn leads to bigger drives and a bulk
 
You know. I'm glad someone started this thread. I mean look at PC games for instance. The vast majority of titles still ship on CD!!1!!
Consumers are not ready for this, and the vast majority upgraded to DVD in the last 2 years. The software is now cheap enough that the average consumer is thinking of building a collection.
I firmly believe that both will fail. Even with the clout of the PS3 I think that the adoption rate of Blu Ray will be painfully slow.

(Is it confirmed that playback of Blu Ray will DEMAND HDMI?? If true, this is the stupidest fucking pile of stupid fucking shit I ever heard, and further proof that Sony has no comprehension of the mass market.

On a completely unrelated note: Anyone buying an HDTV (or in my case, a 2nd one) right now is nutz. I just took a dump and HDTV's dropped a hundred bucks. The price is dropping like crazy all the time as production yields increase. WAIT TIL 2006. Gut check time.
 
snatches said:
(Is it confirmed that playback of Blu Ray will DEMAND HDMI?? If true, this is the stupidest fucking pile of stupid fucking shit I ever heard, and further proof that Sony has no comprehension of the mass market.
Click to expand...

the MPAA/studios are demanding it.
 
snatches said:
Well then the studios can go fuck themselves in the ear.
Click to expand...


Quoted for ear-fucking truth.

Don't get me wrong, this affects games not in the slightest. But I want my HD movies and I want them now. Component is now.
 
HokieJoe said:
Truer words have never been spoken.

My guess is that they won't realize how fucked they are until DVD revenues have completely bottomed out.
Click to expand...
Don't worry, they won't admit their mistakes. They'll just blame piracy for the decline in DVD revenue and use it as an example for the need for even stronger DRM protection and further dilution of fair use rights.
 
Brimstone said:
So if you own a Playstation 3, but don't have HDMI on your HDTV, you can't watch a Blu-Ray movie?
Click to expand...

Yes, that's right... I understand you needing to ask it again, as it is totally batshit insane
 
As far as I'm concerned if these hollywood studios and tech companies can't agree on a single standard then both formats deserve to fail.

The DVD Forum chose HD DVD as the next generation DVD standard years ago, hence the official name 'HD DVD'. Sony and Philips designed BD as a storage format for video cameras and didn't even submit it to the DVD Forum, then once the market for this format disappeared on camcorders they decided that they'd just turn it into the next-gen DVD format. So they just formed their own association. A lot of things have come together for BD over the last couple of years not the least of which was the TDK protective coating which allows the BD to not have a protective cartridge like the UMD, but since it was built for a different purpose it was not built with the process of converting from current DVD production technology in mind.

The fact of the matter is that even though BD-rom is better technology with the potential of up to 200GB storage on a single disc, it's significantly more expensive to produce, it costs more to protect, it's slower to manufacture and HD-DVD is big enough to allow for 8 hours of MPEG-4 HD storage which is probably enough for most people and most movie studios. I think the technology companies should just stick with what they already decided was the official successor to DVD. Between dual layer 30GB HD-DVD, triple layer 45GB HD-DVD, and double sided 60GB HD-DVD I think it would be smarter for them to just go with the cheaper easier to convert to format that was built as the successor to DVD. Hollywood should have respected the choice of the DVD Forum.

At this point with the movie studios and electronics companies split between the two formats there is no chance in hell I would touch either of the two. This whole war also holds back the adoption of HDTV sets and keep the prices from dropping as fast as they could have. On top of that HDTV sets are using 3 different AV standards;the most popular of which will not be supported by next-gen movie players. Then you add to that the fact that most tv channels have not gone HD and are not planning to and you have to wonder what besides video games is really compelling people to run out and buy these expensive HD sets? The entire HD market is a mess and I don't see it sorting itself out for a long time.

I think most people are just going to stick with their DVD players and DVD collections and view these two formats as an interim Laser Disc type of technology until a clear standard emerges.
 
snatches said:
Yes, that's right... I understand you needing to ask it again, as it is totally batshit insane
Click to expand...

No that is not right at all....

You can watch Blu-ray movies fine on RF if you wanted to *BUT* if you want to watch it in Hi-Def (as in 720p, 1080i or 1080p) you can only do that via HDMI...

Most HD-DVD/BRD players probably wont even have analog component video outs (they are un-encrypted, remember) but even if they do, it will be output as 480p AT BEST!!!

Look at it this way...A well authored HD-DVD/BRD movie will be 95% the quality of an archiveal Motion Picture master tape.....these things are *priceless* to the studios who own the masters....

You are batshit insane if you think Hollywood has any desire to release motion pictures for home use at virtually studio master quality without a battery of digital protection

batshit insane...
 
I doubt both will fail, although I'm fairly certain one will, hopefully the inferior one (dont want to start a flame war, so I'll leave it blank ;P). I do think there is a very good possibility that there will be a horrendously slow adoption rate for the HD video BR/HD-DVD primarily due to the need to upgrade to an HDTV.

That said there is a huge demand from the videophile /HDTV owner crowd such as myself who are waiting for the HD movies to roll in. We may be the tiny minority, but we are the big spending target demograpahic for the corporations, we are the ones with the 300+ dvd collections waiting impatiently to re-buy HD versions of LOTR/star wars/matrix etc...

Sure the output/copy protection/format will be a nightmare to deal with, but at the end of the day corporations will never let anything stop them from making money; I'm betting they will relent on their HDMI CP demand (due to very limited penetration) and release HD movies soon. I have the utmost faith in corporate greed, so hurry up and take my money ;).
 
Klee, don't make excuses for them. They are scared of losing revenue to piracy, but that will happen seconds after Blu Ray is released anyway. What they need to do to combat piracy, is make pricing and availability more attractive.

Nobody is going to CASUALLY copy 10Gigabyte movies.
 
Zeo said:
DVD just overtook VHS in rental sales for the first time in like January 2004.

It's just too early to switch formats. The general public won't be buying everything all over again.. again, so soon.
Click to expand...

Holy shit!

I gave up on the VHS format back in late 2000.
 
Kleegamefan said:
No that is not right at all....

You can watch Blu-ray movies fine on RF if you wanted to *BUT* if you want to watch it in Hi-Def (as in 720p, 1080i or 1080p) you can only do that via HDMI...

Most HD-DVD/BRD players probably wont even have analog component video outs (they are un-encrypted, remember) but even if they do, it will be output as 480p AT BEST!!!

Look at it this way...A well authored HD-DVD/BRD movie will be 95% the quality of an archiveal Motion Picture master tape.....these things are *priceless* to the studios that own the masters....

You are batshit insane if you think Hollywood has any desire to release motion pictures for home use at virtually studio master qualit without a battery of digital protection

batshit insane...
Click to expand...

Good points all. However, is HDMI, or a connection for that matter, the best way to ensure that it is a secure format?

Oh yeah and that comment
You can watch Blu-ray movies fine on RF if you wanted to *BUT* if you want to watch it in Hi-Def (as in 720p, 1080i or 1080p) you can only do that via HDMI...
Click to expand...
is batshit insane right there. Who would buy a Blu Ray movie and watch it in DVD resolution??

Some clueless bastard.

I guess that is what they are betting on. Kiss goodbye all early adopters, Sony. I'll buy a PS3, but no BR movies until I get around to buying a new TV. And THAT decision won't be predicated on this nonsense.
 
Kleegamefan said:
No that is not right at all....

You can watch Blu-ray movies on RF if you wanted to *BUT* if you want to watch it in Hi-Def (as in 720p/1080i or 1080p) you can only do that via HDMI...

Look at it this way...A well authored HD-DVD/BRD movie will be 95% the quality of an archiveal Motion Picture master tape.....these things are *priceless* to the studios that own the masters....

You are batshit insane if you think Hollywood has any desire to release motion pictures for home use at virtually studio master qualit without a battery of digital protection

batshit insane...
Click to expand...

but, honestly why should it matter? what would it change other than the consumer having a better product?

realistically hd movies will be pirated no matter what they do and the only thing these draconian drm's do is annoy the average consumer who they need to survive.
 
Kleegamefan said:
No that is not right at all....

You can watch Blu-ray movies fine on RF if you wanted to *BUT* if you want to watch it in Hi-Def (as in 720p, 1080i or 1080p) you can only do that via HDMI...

Most HD-DVD/BRD players probably wont even have analog component video outs (they are un-encrypted, remember) but even if they do, it will be output as 480p AT BEST!!!

Look at it this way...A well authored HD-DVD/BRD movie will be 95% the quality of an archiveal Motion Picture master tape.....these things are *priceless* to the studios who own the masters....

You are batshit insane if you think Hollywood has any desire to release motion pictures for home use at virtually studio master qualit without a battery of digital protection

batshit insane...
Click to expand...


So what's Hollywood going to do when pirates in Taiwan or China crack HDCP within 18 months of commercial released BRD movies hit? ;)
 
Kleegamefan said:
No that is not right at all....

You can watch Blu-ray movies fine on RF if you wanted to *BUT* if you want to watch it in Hi-Def (as in 720p, 1080i or 1080p) you can only do that via HDMI...

.
Click to expand...


Thus is why PS3 has HDMI capability.

*Hugs brand new Sony STR-DA7100ES receiver*
 
Fatghost28 said:
So what's Hollywood going to do when pirates in Taiwan or China crack HDCP within 18 months of commercial released BRD movies hit? ;)
Click to expand...

18 Months :lol :lol :lol

More like 18 hours......
 
Kleegamefan said:
No that is not right at all....

You can watch Blu-ray movies fine on RF if you wanted to *BUT* if you want to watch it in Hi-Def (as in 720p, 1080i or 1080p) you can only do that via HDMI...

Most HD-DVD/BRD players probably wont even have analog component video outs (they are un-encrypted, remember) but even if they do, it will be output as 480p AT BEST!!!

Look at it this way...A well authored HD-DVD/BRD movie will be 95% the quality of an archiveal Motion Picture master tape.....these things are *priceless* to the studios who own the masters....

You are batshit insane if you think Hollywood has any desire to release motion pictures for home use at virtually studio master qualit without a battery of digital protection

batshit insane...
Click to expand...

Wouldn't creating a new form of copy protection (said CP being built into the Blu-Ray / HD-DVD player be more feasable than CP through HDMI? The overwhelming majority of HDTV owners dont have a set with HDMI, and they would seriously screw themselves, I'm betting they know that too. I doubt they would do anything to jepordize profits. I may be wrong but I betting they have a plan B for an alternative Copy protection scheme.
 
Stinkles said:
But I want my HD movies and I want them now. Component is now.
Click to expand...
HDMI is also now, if you bought your TV in the last two years or so. That's a pretty long period of time, and classifies as 'now' in my opinion.

Brimstone said:
So if you own a Playstation 3, but don't have HDMI on your HDTV, you can't watch a Blu-Ray movie?
Click to expand...
You can, but only in 480p.

..pakbeka.. said:
I really hope they fail and we keep using the good ol dvd
Click to expand...
"Good old" DVD won't look that good next to a HD movie on any half decent HDTV. Wanting to stick with it makes no sense. I've actually stopped buying DVDs for the simple reason of not wanting to re-buy anything when the BR comes out. Even with those new drives being able to play DVDs, I know I'll want to buy some of the visually impressive movies again :\

Fatghost28 said:
So what's Hollywood going to do when pirates in Taiwan or China crack HDCP within 18 months of commercial released BRD movies hit? ;)
Click to expand...
You will then buy a cheap modchip for your PS3 / HiDef player and enjoy the HD movies on your HDMI-less TV. Everyone wins!
 
Stinkles said:
Klee, don't make excuses for them. They are scared of losing revenue to piracy, but that will happen seconds after Blu Ray is released anyway. What they need to do to combat piracy, is make pricing and availability more attractive.

Nobody is going to CASUALLY copy 10Gigabyte movies.
Click to expand...

I am not making an excuse....I am just stating a reality (releasing reference quality home releases without an encryption scheme would be suicide for the movie studio who generate tons of revenue off of re-releases and regional releases)

And trying to dispell a fallacy(OMG, I do not have HDMI therefore I will never get to watch Hi-def movies, THE SKY IS FALLING!!)


These studios know full well all their DRM schemes will come under attack as soon as products hit the market, but believing they will just sidestep any kind of digital encryption of HD sources is just unrealistic, IMO

Look, I am more than familar with the sensitive subjects of DRM, the Digital Millinium Copyright Act and IP piracy and there are TONS of opinions available from those who poo-poo the decisions of the Hollywood studios concerning all this.....there is nothing I could add to the discussion that hasn't been said a thousand times already...

However, this is the way its going to be, for better or worse and I am simply exploring the reasonings behind the Hollywood studios on these subjects...which is something that *hasn't* been talked about as much....

I have my own opinions and concerns about DRM which I have already stated on the forum to my satisfaction....no need to go there *YET AGAIN*
 
"You can watch Blu-ray movies fine on RF if you wanted to *BUT* if you want to watch it in Hi-Def (as in 720p, 1080i or 1080p) you can only do that via HDMI.."
Click to expand...

the whole point of Bluray is watching it in HD. If most people have to try it out via 480i/p , they aren't going to see the benefit (especially as i'd expect Bluray to cost significantly more than DVD soft).

This just sounds utterly stupid - they are stipulating you must have a HDMI set, so the investment require to get any sort of penetration off the _free_ Bluray drive for PS3 as a movie player suddenly goes shooting up.

Sounds daft.
 
HDMI is also now, if you bought your TV in the last two years or so. That's a pretty long period of time, and classifies as 'now' in my opinion.
Click to expand...

Almost every single HDTV has component. Most do not have HDMI. That will be true when Blu Ray launches. Which means most people will still need a new TV. That is far from "now."
 
5-10 years from now DVDs will still be the primary format. BRD will basically be like Laserdisc, for AV enthusiasts only.
 
Yusaku said:
5-10 years from now DVDs will still be the primary format. BRD will basically be like Laserdisc, for AV enthusiasts only.
Click to expand...

Unless they capitulate and let component display HD.
 
My HDTV that I paid $2k for almost 3 years ago doesn't have HDMI or DVI.

Therefore, I don't give a shit about Blu-Ray or HD-DVD.

And I won't for another 7 or 8 years until I'm shopping for a new TV.
 
My HDTV that I paid $2k for almost 3 years ago doesn't have HDMI or DVI.
Click to expand...

Not to be a prick, but 3 years ago I bought a GeForce3/4. Lets keep things in perspective; these aren't durable goods. Hell, I don't even have the same car that I had in 2002.

Yusaku said:
5-10 years from now DVDs will still be the primary format. BRD will basically be like Laserdisc, for AV enthusiasts only.
Click to expand...

You do realise the improbability of this scenario happening after the announcement of BRD in the PlayStation is close to zero? The costs to launch a format at this level is immense, there will not be another format or another technology for quite a few years. If for no other reason than that with BRD we hit the barrier in which we don't have the technology to display any more data, nor will we for the near future. BRD is it... get used to it.
 
Vince said:
You do realise the improbability of this scenario happening after the announcement of BRD in the PlayStation is close to zero? The costs to launch a format at this level is immense, there will not be another format or another technology for quite a few years. If for no other reason than that with BRD we hit the barrier in which we don't have the technology to display any more data, nor will we for the near future. BRD is it... get used to it.
Click to expand...

:lol

right, I'm sure the movie studios are planning on not trying to sell you your movie library all over again 10 years down the line.

And the "OMGZORS PS3 WILL MAKE BRD MAINSTREAM" is something I don't buy. Will BRD discs be priced competitively with DVD discs, or will they command a $10-$20 premium over standard DVD discs? (the answer is obvious.) Do you think the average consumer is then just going to buy the BRD disc even if they get no benefit (HDTV penetration is still very low)? I just don't see it happening.
 
"You do realise the improbability of this scenario happening after the announcement of BRD in the PlayStation is close to zero? The costs to launch a format at this level is immense, there will not be another format or another technology for quite a few years. If for no other reason than that with BRD we hit the barrier in which we don't have the technology to display any more data, nor will we for the near future. BRD is it... get used to it."
Click to expand...

... but what is the point of that penetration if you are then limited to a subset of HDTV owners is the point here.

Although as it's the movie industry driving the adoption of HDMI then everyone is going to get royaly f*cked anyway.

so... that's it basically... we will all go out and buy new HDMI equiped tvs and that's the end of it.
"Not to be a prick, but 3 years ago I bought a GeForce3/4. Lets keep things in perspective; these aren't durable goods. Hell, I don't even have the same car that I had in 2002."
Click to expand...

Just buy a cinema instead.
 
I don't see the HDMI requirement as a major hurdle. Virtually every HD-capable set being sold at the moment (at least in the US) is HDMI enabled. There seems to be a VERY rapid transition to flat panel HD sets underway. If you look at projections for the US, it's something like 40-50% penetration within the next couple of years.

The real question is whether people buying these sets are doing so because they really care about HD output, or because they want a really nice large flat panel. If it's the latter, they're not going to spend the extra $400-$600 for a HDDVD/BluRay player anytime soon.

Also, there is zero chance for any format to succeed in a split format environment. Which is why there will never be a split-format environment.
 
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