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[urk]

You don't have to look any further than the manufacturer.

As of 2004, HDMI was installed in about three million television sets. A small fraction of the total. Hell, it's even a pretty lousy percentage of digital sets. HDMI's own predictions puts the tech installed in well under half the digital sets by 2006.

 

[Xellotah]

Consumer electronics will sell in mass numbers if the are cheap enough...

I mean dvd drives didn't really take-off until prices dropped.

I think this will be the same BD or maybe HDDVD Drives. Give it the right prices and a couple of good christmases and everybody will have owning a next gen drives, regardless of HDTV take up.

I have the feeling (base on likely price brackets), it will be the sale of the HD drives that will be driving the sales of HDTVs ... not vice versa.

 

[Excelion]

Urk HDMI penetration is not really relevant. You can use DVI(which the vast majority of HDTVs do have) to watch HD movies aswell. We need HDCP compliant statistics, not HDMI statistics.

 

[urk]

Urk HDMI penetration is not really relevant. You can use DVI(which the vast majority of HDTVs do have) to watch HD movies aswell. We need HDCP compliant statistics, not HDMI statistics.

If we're talking Blu-Ray and HD-DVD it is more than relevant, it's critical.

 

[kaching]

As of 2004, HDMI was installed in about three million television sets. A small fraction of the total. Hell, it's even a pretty lousy percentage of digital sets. HDMI's own predictions puts the tech installed in well under half the digital sets by 2006.

And? Your point is? Blu-ray and HD-DVD aren't even launching until 2006. Even if you predicted DVD-like success for either format, you'd still be looking at 3-4 yrs of growth before it hit mass market penetration anyway. HDMI penetration should be more than enough to stay ahead of BD/HD-DVD growth in the first couple of years and, if one or the other format does turn out to be successful, then BD/HD-DVD growth would probably drive HDMI penetration.

 

[trmas]

Yes, HDCP works over DVI. My cable box has DVI with HDCP, I use an adapter to hook it up to my HDMI TV.

Same. Any TV bought in the last two years should support HDCP. My 2 1/2 year old Sony RPTV in the basement even has DVI/HDCP capability. And people will buy this technology even without the TV's to support it. I remember when so many people were buying progressive scan DVD players, and didn't even have a TV to support it.

 

[vitaflo]

Will the HDDVD & BR cases look any different? If they're just in the same DVD style cases, I imagine people are going to get mighty confused. :/

 

[Stinkles]

Same. Any TV bought in the last two years should support HDCP. My 2 1/2 year old Sony RPTV in the basement even has DVI/HDCP capability. And people will buy this technology even without the TV's to support it. I remember when so many people were buying progressive scan DVD players, and didn't even have a TV to support it.

That's simply not true. Lots will of course, but it was never mandated and was often shaved off of specs to save costs. They STILL make low end HD sets without HDMI. And more importantly - HDMI has identifiers which can tell the media player (Blu Ray, Tivo etc) that it is an HDMI connection - the player can distinguish between HDCP DVI and HDMI connections even though they're ostensibly the same thing - the question is, will Sony et al even support DVI with HDCP?

And even if they did, most TVs still don't even have that. The VAST MAJORITY of TVs. That is not an easily surmountable hurdle, in spite of the blase comments being passed in this thread.

 

[trmas]

The fact is this. Anyone who did their research (and if you are spending that kind of money, you should at least do some research), KNEW this was coming. Hell, I've now known about it for three FREAKING years, because I first looked into it when I bought my old Sony RPTV HDTV.

This is not some big secret sprung on the world with no notice. This stuff has been in works for YEARS, and quite frankly I'm surprised it's just now gotten to the point it's being implemented. And I am far from an expert.

 

[Stinkles]

The fact is this. Anyone who did their research (and if you are spending that kind of money, you should at least do some research), KNEW this was coming. Hell, I've now known about it for three FREAKING years, because I first looked into it when I bought my old Sony RPTV HDTV.

This is not some big secret sprung on the world with no notice. This stuff has been in works for YEARS, and quite frankly I'm surprised it's just now gotten to the point it's being implemented. And I am far from an expert.

This argument actually counters your point. If you need to research it, it's not mainstream. If it can't sell to the mainstream, it will be the next SACD.

 

[urk]

And? Your point is?

My point is that half the people who adopt a HD television set won't have a HDMI connector. That is the complete opposite as was the case of VHS to DVD where the overwhelming majority of DVD players could be hooked up to any television and immediately see a leap in quality. That won't be the case with these new standards. Not for more than half the people who already dropped money on a digital set and not for anyone who isn't up to speed on the latest technology news (hint: that's about 99% of the market).

 

[kaching]

I think you're greatly overestimating the extent to which early DVD adopters could really *see* a leap in visual quality over VHS with just any old TV and any old video connection. I don't think the average TV setup during the early years of DVD would have provided most potential DVD adopters enough incentive on the merit of the increased visual quality alone to justify the cost of upgrade. No, the incentive to buy in these cases would have most likely come from factoring a combination of the improvements that DVD offered over VHS, not just visual quality. Same can happen with BD/HD-DVD like I outlined earlier in this thread.

 

[gollumsluvslave]

Kaching

I think you're greatly overestimating the extent to which early DVD adopters could really *see* a leap in visual quality over VHS with just any old TV and any old video connection.

I think the key point here is that in the vast majority of VCR-DVD upgrades, people could replace a VCR with a DVD player, with the SAME cable into the SAME input on the SAME TV and see a reasonably large visual increase.

The thing with HDCP compliant inputs limits the likelihood of that being true with DVD to BRD IMHO.

 

[Eel O'Brian]

That's simply not true. Lots will of course, but it was never mandated and was often shaved off of specs to save costs. They STILL make low end HD sets without HDMI. And more importantly - HDMI has identifiers which can tell the media player (Blu Ray, Tivo etc) that it is an HDMI connection - the player can distinguish between HDCP DVI and HDMI connections even though they're ostensibly the same thing - the question is, will Sony et al even support DVI with HDCP?

That's interesting. I hadn't read about that anywhere. One of the reasons I bought the TV I have now is that it was HDCP compliant through the DVI port, so I figured I was covered there. If what you wrote is the case, then I won't be forced into rebuying an HDTV. I simply won't be part of the HD-DVD or Blu Ray audience, and spend that money elsewhere. They can both fail, for all I care.

 

[kaching]

I understand what the key point is supposed to be, gollum. I'm just not buying it, for reasons already stated.

Edit: Jonnyram, I've already said my piece on this, EARLIER in the thread then some of you seem to be looking. Not going to bother repeating myself while some of you guys seem to only be looking at the most recent responses in an ongoing conversation.

 

[Jonnyram]

I think you're greatly overestimating the extent to which early DVD adopters could really *see* a leap in visual quality over VHS with just any old TV and any old video connection. I don't think the average TV setup during the early years of DVD would have provided most potential DVD adopters enough incentive on the merit of the increased visual quality alone to justify the cost of upgrade. No, the incentive to buy in these cases would have most likely come from factoring a combination of the improvements that DVD offered over VHS, not just visual quality. Same can happen with BD/HD-DVD like I outlined earlier in this thread.

First of all, the quality leap from VHS to DVD is manifold. There's the digital thing (which is obvious as tape -> CD), then there's the fact that you have 5.1 audio, chapters you can jump to easily, and bonus content.

What does next-gen video offer on top of that? Just HD. It's like SACD, if you want an easy comparison. Audiophiles love it, and most people will notice the jump in quality if you ask them, but it's not mass market because it's not a massive difference.

 

[Culex]

I figured this is just as good a place as any to ask this:

Besides a smaller format and more space, what does DVD offer over laser disc?

 

[DCharlie]

lazer disks actually degrade after many usages, believe it or not.

also, you were required to flip sides for a lot of films.

 

[urk]

Laserdisc also had flickering and crosstalk issues.

 

[Twix]

Toshiba delays US launch of HD DVD player
By Sachi Izumi
TOKYO (Reuters) - Japan's Toshiba Corp. said on Wednesday it is delaying its launch of next-generation HD DVD players in the U.S. market to around February or March, revising its plan for a year-end start date.

Toshiba and Sony Corp., leading rival camps, have waged a three-year battle to have their different standards adopted for next-generation DVD technology, which promises much greater capacity for high-definition movies.

Toshiba, along with NEC Corp. and Sanyo Electric Co., has been promoting the HD DVD format, while Sony and Matsushita Electric Industrial Co. have been developing a technology known as Blu-ray.

"We have been discussing with content holders the most effective way to launch in the U.S. market, and it will probably be in February or March," Toshiba Corporate Senior Vice President Yoshihide Fujii told a news conference.

Japan's second-largest electronics conglomerate said it and content holders such as film studios believe it would be best to start sales of HD DVD players in the United States on a wide scale rather than gradually

It said it would take several months to build up inventories after starting mass-production in mid-December.

Toshiba had originally said it planned to launch HD DVD players in the fourth quarter of 2005 in both Japan and the United States, while Sony plans to put a Blu-ray disc drive in its new PlayStation game console to go on sale next year.

Toshiba said it still plans to introduce HD DVD players in the Japanese market by the year-end.

Toshiba won powerful support on Monday when Microsoft Corp. and Intel Corp. announced that their products would support the HD DVD format, dealing a major blow to the Sony-led Blu-ray camp.

Microsoft and Intel, the world's largest software maker and top chip maker, said the HD DVD format would make it easier for consumers to copy high-definition movies to computer hard drives.

The two sides in the format battle tried to forge a common format earlier this year, without success, to avoid confusion and inconvenience to consumers such as occurred as a result of the VHS-Beta battle over videocassette formats two decades ago.

"We will make all possible efforts to unify the format for consumers' sake," Fujii said, adding that the two sides were not currently in discussion.

Among Hollywood film studios, whose support is critical for the success of any DVD format, Warner Bros. Studios, New Line Cinema, Paramount Pictures and Universal Pictures endorse HD DVD, while Blu-ray supporters include Sony Pictures, Walt Disney Co. and Twentieth Century Fox, a unit of News Corp..

Toshiba also said it aimed to introduce surface conduction electron emitter display (SED) panels jointly manufactured with Canon Inc. in Japan by March 2006.

Fujii said Toshiba had aimed for launches at the same time in Japan and the United States, but now it plans to delay the U.S. launch by one or two quarters so the products will hit the market when sales can be maximized.

Shares in Toshiba ended the day up 2.48 percent at 496 yen, outperforming a 0.95 percent rise in the

http://ca.today.reuters.com/news/ne...LE717147_RTRIDST_0_TECH-JAPAN-TOSHIBA-COL.XML

 

[DarienA]

http://ca.today.reuters.com/news/ne...LE717147_RTRIDST_0_TECH-JAPAN-TOSHIBA-COL.XML

:lol Hasn't this HD-DVD joke gone on long enough?

 

[Sweedishrodeo]

......I'm going with DVD for the win.

 

[Error Macro]

I can't wait until the black market starts selling boxes that convert an encrypted HDCP signal into an unencrypted one, both digital and analog, for use with component. Fuck those studios right in their fucking ears.

 

[Stinkles]

I can't wait until the black market starts selling boxes that convert an encrypted HDCP signal into an unencrypted one, both digital and analog, for use with component. Fuck those studios right in their fucking ears.

QFT. But don't worry, someone will post on here defending this indefensible bullshit soon enough.

 

[snatches]

This argument actually counters your point. If you need to research it, it's not mainstream. If it can't sell to the mainstream, it will be the next SACD.

:lol :lol

This was always the running joke when I was in the electronics biz before I shimmied my way into the games biz:

What do these have in common:

Beta
Minidisc
SACD

All superior formats that Sony could not sell to the mass market. Hell, let's face it, Sony doesn't even do a good job marketing the playstation.

Blu Ray will fail, PS3 or not. PERIOD.

 

[DaveT]

As long as people can either connect a regular A/V cable to it for stereo Audio or if there's a Optical Audio Out of the back, most people with HDTV shoulds be fine as long as their's the DVI port...

Just use the HDMI output of the console (PS3) and use an adapter to go into the DVI input on your TV. Then use the A/V cable or the Optical Audio out for your audio out into your receiver or whatnot.

The video signal in HDMI and DVI are exactly the same. HDMI just happens to carry an audio signal.

Hopefully Sony supplies an adapter or an HDMI to DVI cable...they would be smart to do so...or knowing them, they'll sell it seperately for like $30.

Everyone should have been smart and just went with SDI connections...so much simpler, and more stable.

Good article here about the various types of HD signals and which is better...

http://forum.ecoustics.com/bbs/messages/34579/122868.html

 

[Stinkles]

As long as people can either connect a regular A/V cable to it for stereo Audio or if there's a Optical Audio Out of the back, most people with HDTV shoulds be fine as long as their's the DVI port...

Just use the HDMI output of the console (PS3) and use an adapter to go into the DVI input on your TV. Then use the A/V cable or the Optical Audio out for your audio out into your receiver or whatnot.

The video signal in HDMI and DVI are exactly the same. HDMI just happens to carry an audio signal.

Hopefully Sony supplies an adapter or an HDMI to DVI cable...they would be smart to do so...or knowing them, they'll sell it seperately for like $30.

Everyone should have been smart and just went with SDI connections...so much simpler, and more stable.

Good article here about the various types of HD signals and which is better...

http://forum.ecoustics.com/bbs/messages/34579/122868.html

Read the thread.

 

[Hooker]

Can't be bothered to read the whole thread, and the search didn't come with something worthwile. But this struck me as the deal-breaker/maker for consumers/coporate entities.

HD-DVD to be region free:


http://www.bit-tech.net/news/2005/10/10/hd_dvd_region_codes/

 

[sonycowboy]

Can't be bothered to read the whole thread, and the search didn't come with something worthwile. But this struck me as the deal-breaker/maker for consumers/coporate entities.

HD-DVD to be region free:


http://www.bit-tech.net/news/2005/10/10/hd_dvd_region_codes/

Region encoding ONLY benefits the content providers by allowing them to control releases and revenue by the various regions. If movie studios are willing to forego it, Blu-Ray will be able to support the exact same thing. And hell, they could just make the movie regionless if they wanted.

I doubt this is a HD-DVD vs Blu-Ray thing.