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[Biggest-Geek-Ever]

Fox Searchlight paid a record $17.5M for Birth of a Nation. Given there is almost no chance of any Oscar attention for the film, they must be absolutely furious.

Is it weird that the movie is called "The Girl on the Train" instead of "The Woman on the Train"? I'm pretty sure the character in question is an adult woman not a girl. Is it based on an existing property or did the producers decide that "Girl" is more marketable or appealing?

It's based on a book with that title.

 

[Jigorath]

Breaking out at the box office was the only thing that could have revived Birth of a Nation's Oscar chances. Now it's completely dead.

 

[hodayathink]

Fox Searchlight paid a record $17.5M for Birth of a Nation. Given there is almost no chance of any Oscar attention for the film, they must be absolutely furious.

Then maybe they should have vetted the director/star of the movie before they ponied up that much money. It's not like this was a secret, it's just that no one took the time to look until, apparently, this summer.

 

[PhoncipleBone]

Is it weird that the movie is called "The Girl on the Train" instead of "The Woman on the Train"? I'm pretty sure the character in question is an adult woman not a girl. Is it based on an existing property or did the producers decide that "Girl" is more marketable or appealing?

Just wait for the film version of The Woman in Cabin 10.

 

[watershed]

Fox Searchlight paid a record $17.5M for Birth of a Nation. Given there is almost no chance of any Oscar attention for the film, they must be absolutely furious.

It's based on a book with that title.

I see. Do you know if in the book is the "girl" in the title also a grown woman? That title is just really weird for what seems to be a sex drama if the trailer is accurate.

 

[Undead Fantasy]

How the hell is Suicide Squad still hanging close to the top 10?

Take the L GAF.

 

[MHWilliams]

How the hell is Suicide Squad still hanging close to the top 10?

Look at the movies in that list.

That's what it was up against.

 

[PhoncipleBone]

Look at the movies in that list.

That's what it was up against.

BvS failed against even weaker competition.

 

[MHWilliams]

BvS failed against even weaker competition.

Suicide Squad is a better movie than BvS.

 

[PhoncipleBone]

Suicide Squad is a better movie than BvS.

That is faint praise.

I am waiting for cable or to borrow a friends blu ray before I see Suicide Squad. I still haven't worked up the nerve to watch the extended version of BvS. Or had enough alcohol to want to do it.

 

[guek]

Suicide Squad is a better movie than BvS.

In the same way I'd rather get gonorrhea than herpes, sure

 

[vinnygambini]

In the same way I'd rather get gonorrhea than herpes, sure

 

[milanbaros]

I see. Do you know if in the book is the "girl" in the title also a grown woman? That title is just really weird for what seems to be a sex drama if the trailer is accurate.

If it is the same as the book it isn't a sex drama but a psychological thriller about an alcoholic woman.

 

[Biggest-Geek-Ever]

Then maybe they should have vetted the director/star of the movie before they ponied up that much money. It's not like this was a secret, it's just that no one took the time to look until, apparently, this summer.

I don't disagree, but they were in a very intense bidding war with Netflix over it and it seemed like the perfect film in the current climate. At the very least, I can't really the studio for the way Nate Parker has handled himself ("But as I sit here, an apology is — no").

Anyway, I'm curious to see what Hollywood does with Nate Parker was here on out. If the critical reception was overwhelming or it had a large box office opening, it would be one thing. But it feels like a miss on just about every front currently.

I see. Do you know if in the book is the "girl" in the title also a grown woman? That title is just really weird for what seems to be a sex drama if the trailer is accurate.

The girl refers to Emily Blunt's character.

 

[hodayathink]

I don't disagree, but they were in a very intense bidding war with Netflix over it and it seemed like the perfect film in the current climate. At the very least, I can't really the studio for the way Nate Parker has handled himself ("But as I sit here, an apology is — no").

Anyway, I'm curious to see what Hollywood does with Nate Parker was here on out. If the critical reception was overwhelming or it had a large box office opening, it would be one thing. But it feels like a miss on just about every front currently.

He's too stubborn/stupid to admit that he actually did anything wrong, even if it means the death of his career. I don't see him getting any major studio projects at this point, at the very least, because he's kinda proven he can't be controlled by the studio.

 

[Undead Fantasy]

Suicide Squad is a better movie than BvS.

Lol, No.

 

[Gentleman Jack]

Lol, No.

SS has at least two likable characters. That's two more than BvS.

Also kswiss is inviting these threads to again get inundated with hot takes on the latest superhero 'bomba.'

 

[Ahasverus]

Suicide Squad is a better movie than BvS.

Incredibly wrong in a timeline where the UC exists. The TC of BvS was a zombie, but SS is a zombie made with different corpses.

 

[Bulzeeb]

how is the girl on the train, I am curious about it but not sure

 

[#sorrynotsorry]

how is the girl on the train, I am curious about it but not sure

Boring. It's an inferior Gone Girl. I guessed the ending way, way too early. Poorly done.

 

[Schlorgan]

RLM's latest Half in the Bag is about Box Office Numbers, Mike also gives his predictions for 2017 movies. Posting it here for now, but if there's enough discussion around it, I'll just make it into a thread.

https://youtu.be/jLk2LBGkMd4

 

[Gentleman Jack]

RLM's latest Half in the Bag is about Box Office Numbers, Mike also gives his predictions for 2017 movies. Posting it here for now, but if there's enough discussion around it, I'll just make it into a thread.

https://youtu.be/jLk2LBGkMd4

Well, uh, at least they updated it with an annotation that their utter lack of understanding of the effects of a theater's take, particularly in foreign territories like china, completely precludes their 28 minute analysis of which movies made or didn't make money this year...

 

[Schlorgan]

Well, uh, at least they updated it with an annotation that their utter lack of understanding of the effects of a theater's take, particularly in foreign territories like china, completely precludes their 28 minute analysis of which movies made or didn't make money this year...

Yeah, it's super off, but I thought Mike's predictions were fun (especially him thinking of Spider-Man: Homecoming as a $200 million movie).

 

[Gentleman Jack]

Mike's predictions, in case there's any general interest.
His likely overpredictions: JL dom (by a lot), The Mummy Int'l (by a lot), Jumanji dom (by a whole lot)
His likely underpredictions: Beauty and the Beast dom.

And yeah his budget predictions are insane for Spiderman.

 

[MHWilliams]

Ganking Gent's image.

Spider-Man: Homecoming, he's too high domestically and internationally. I'm thinking Homecoming will come in around $800 million worldwide, $250 domestically. That's on the low-end in my head, but based on past performance, I feel good with those guesses.

I think his Transformers numbers are correct domestically, but that international number is absurd. Justice League is pretty much right, assuming it's a competent film; the DC universe ceiling seems rather high. Power Rangers is right assuming it's not good. If it is, I'll kick that up to $250 million worldwide at best?

No thoughts on the rest.

 

[vinnygambini]

Beauty and The Beast's predictions domestically are too low

Jumanji is too damn high

Transformers seems a tad high as well; I'd give a similar drop-off that Star Trek had to T5 domestically $170-190M is where I see it land

Power Rangers seems about right, but I think it will have a better international gross that the $100M predicted

The Mummy is way too low

 

[overcast]

Beauty and the Beast is way too low. Might make 250-300 domestically.

 

[Ross61]

$600 Mil for Justice League is way too low.

 

[Ninja Scooter]

$600 Mil for Justice League is way too low.

$600 million international, nearly a billion WW.

 

[Mega Man's Electric Sheep]

The Beauty and the Beast prediction is stupid considering how well the other live action Disneys based on popular animated movies have done. Pete's Dragon makes $75 million, but a live action version of one of their most popular animated classics is going to only manage $30 million more than that? Not a chance in hell. I'd be shocked if B&TB came in under $200 million domestic.

 

[shintoki]

BATB is stupid low on both accounts. That would put it 100 million under Cinderella. No fucking chance in hell. If Cinderella can do 550, which is one of the most polarizing and female dominated tails. BATB is going to 800mil+ At least.

Justice League will be lucky to cross 300mil. BvS, SS, and more. I really do feel like it's going to hit Warner on this one,

Jumaniji and Mummy don't even make sense. Another two stupidly low predictions. Even the terrible 3rd Mummy film that came out after Frasier's career was done, still netted 400mil. And the Rock is Money.

I don't disagree, but they were in a very intense bidding war with Netflix over it and it seemed like the perfect film in the current climate. At the very least, I can't really the studio for the way Nate Parker has handled himself ("But as I sit here, an apology is — no").

Anyway, I'm curious to see what Hollywood does with Nate Parker was here on out. If the critical reception was overwhelming or it had a large box office opening, it would be one thing. But it feels like a miss on just about every front currently.

Most aren't going to touch him. Even Polaski had trouble for years getting films financed and a lot still won't fuck with him, just because it's not worth dealing with the fallout. This is for someone who has a hand fill of highly acclaimed films and lots of friends.

Basically, if the film was good. He'd be alright,

 

[Dash_Riprock]

No way Transformers 5 makes that much. Justice League seems about right though I think Wonder Woman and its own critical reception will play a big factor.

 

[jrush64]

Take the L GAF.

Oh dude, I loved the hell out of Suicide Squad. I'm not one of the haters. I'm just surprised it's still up there.

 

[Freeza Under The Shower]

No way Transformers 5 makes that much.

I bothered checking Boxofficemojo on them and their numbers have gone up per movie (to 1.1 billion total gross with the fourth one), so it's going to actually make that money. It's a literal golden ticket as far as any prediction based on past performance can give you.

Sorry man, I hate them all too. But the numbers disagree.

 

[womfalcs3]

Deepwater has only made $38 million domestically on a budget of $110 million. Miss Peregrine will fail to make its budget, but has a stronger performance overseas. So many movies struggling to make their budgets domestically.

I don't know how these movies will hold on in the next few weeks. We have The Accountant this week, Jack Reacher in 2 weeks, Inferno and Dr. Strange after that.

There's no room to breathe. Essentially, a movie has to have a strong opening to compete.

 

[pixelation]

She makes me swoon.

 

[CassSept]

Really, if Jungle Book almost crawled to a billion I can't imagine Beauty and the Beast not doing that. The movie is going to make yuuuge money.

I don't see how TF5 making 900 mil overseas is that insane though. TF3->TF4 actually increased from 770 mil to 860 mil somehow. Depends on how much it makes in China, really.

 

[Lord Frieza]

BATB is stupid low on both accounts. That would put it 100 million under Cinderella. No fucking chance in hell. If Cinderella can do 550, which is one of the most polarizing and female dominated tails. BATB is going to 800mil+ At least.

Justice League will be lucky to cross 300mil. BvS, SS, and more. I really do feel like it's going to hit Warner on this one,

Jumaniji and Mummy don't even make sense. Another two stupidly low predictions. Even the terrible 3rd Mummy film that came out after Frasier's career was done, still netted 400mil. And the Rock is Money.



Most aren't going to touch him. Even Polaski had trouble for years getting films financed and a lot still won't fuck with him, just because it's not worth dealing with the fallout. This is for someone who has a hand fill of highly acclaimed films and lots of friends.

Basically, if the film was good. He'd be alright,

Keep the dream of a total bomb DCEU film alive.

 

[Alrus]

Miss Peregrine is heading toward "not good but still not a complete bomb and might make money at some point" territory, I guess that's a better result that other recent Burton movies?

Deepwater Horizon is a bomb so far.

Also Half in the bag predictions for The Mummy and BaTB are way too low. Especially for The Mummy, why do they expect it to bomb this hard?

 

[AndyVirus]

Like most of you, my first thought was Beauty and the Beast is way, way too low. It'll get twice that WW total. The Mummy has a chance to do the same (as in double the prediction), but it's less of a sure thing. No way it makes as little as $28m domestic. Jumanji total is in the ballpark, but too much put on the domestic side.

Spider-Man and Justice League seems about right at least.

 

[kswiston]

Ganking Gent's image.

Spider-Man: Homecoming, he's too high domestically and internationally. I'm thinking Homecoming will come in around $800 million worldwide, $250 domestically. That's on the low-end in my head, but based on past performance, I feel good with those guesses.

I think his Transformers numbers are correct domestically, but that international number is absurd. Justice League is pretty much right, assuming it's a competent film; the DC universe ceiling seems rather high. Power Rangers is right assuming it's not good. If it is, I'll kick that up to $250 million worldwide at best?

No thoughts on the rest.

Spider-man has the potential to go as high as he predicts, but I'm not sure if it will. Maybe once we get a trailer. Any word on whether the Tony Stark cameo is substantial?


The Beauty and the Beast prediction is absurd. Perhaps the worst one of the entire bunch. Cinderella made $200M domestic and close to $350M international. Unless the film is absolutely terrible, I don't see how it misses at least that mark. If the film is good, I wouldn't be surprised to see it closer to The Jungle Book than Cinderella. Pete's Dragon is inconsequential. Disney is going to break their marketing A-Game to Beauty and the Beast. Perhaps their third biggest/most important film of the year after Star Wars Ep 8 and Guardians of the Galaxy 2.

The Transformers prediction might seem reasonable until you take foreign exchange rates into consideration. Someone over on the BOT forums has been adjusting international grosses of recent movies to account for exchange rate differences between now and then. Dark of the Moon would have made $983M worldwide ($631M overseas) using current rates. Age of Extinction would have made $971M worldwide ($725M overseas) using current rates. China is not going to make up a $175M deficit, especially when Transformers 5 is likely to continue the franchise's drop from Dark of the Moon's high point elsewhere internationally.

The Mummy is way too pessimistic. Ignoring the fact that Tomb of the Dragon Emperor made $400M worldwide, even Dracula Untold (which I think was the supposed to be the original start of the movie monster universe) made $217M. A big budget action film starring Tom Cruise is not going to putter out at less than $30M domestic and $130M worldwide. Since Top Gun, the only Cruise films to make less than what he is predicting for the Mummy domestic were Lions for Lambs and Magnolia.

Jumanji's domestic total is probably too high. I could see it breaking $150M or so. On the other hand, the international take is probably too low. Central Intelligence made $90M overseas, and I think this has more international appeal. ~$300M worldwide might end up in the right ballpark, with a difference domestic/OS split.

Justice League and Power Rangers seem reasonable.

 

[jrush64]

I guess I'm the only one that thinks Spiderman Homecoming is going to make a billion?

 

[guek]

Funny how an RT% around 40% would probably be considered a "win" for JL

Beauty and the Beast is going to go far with Emma Watson. She's easily the most marketable star yet to be in these live action remakes.

I'll be surprised if Spider-man hits $900M but I suppose it's possible

 

[jett]

Spider-man has the potential to go as high as he predicts, but I'm not sure if it will. Maybe once we get a trailer. Any word on whether the Tony Stark cameo is substantial?


The Beauty and the Beast prediction is absurd.

Mike is an idiot. He originally thought TBATB was a CGI movie, and pegged the budget of hypothetical major Disney animated movie at $75 million.

I'm sorry to say you all have collectively wasted your time trying to analyse his predictions.

 

[kswiston]

Mike is an idiot. He originally thought TBATB was a CGI movie, and pegged its budget at $75 million.

I'm sorry to say you all have collectively wasted your time trying to analyse his predictions.

Not like anything else was going on in this thread.

Were those all of his predictions? If so, why those films and not the several other big budget 2017 films? Seems like a random collection of predictions.

 

[jett]

Not like anything else was going on in this thread.

Were those all of his predictions? If so, why those films and not the several other big budget 2017 films? Seems like a random collection of predictions.

lol that's exactly what it is. A random group of tentpole films.

The video also analyses the profit margins of major 2016 blockbusters. This analysis curiously ignores the theaters' cut entirely.

 

[Schlorgan]

There's no way Homecoming has a budget higher than $100 million. Maybe $150 million on the outside but $200 million for that movie in particular is too much.

 

[Gentleman Jack]

Not like anything else was going on in this thread.

Were those all of his predictions? If so, why those films and not the several other big budget 2017 films? Seems like a random collection of predictions.

Mike was trying to pick the movies that he felt correlated to 2016 films that got a lot of oxygen about their box office run. But I think he got bored of researching so he stopped after a small handful of movies. I think more than anything he wanted to pick one marvel movie, one disney family film, one DCAU film and one remake.

 

[kswiston]

There's no way Homecoming has a budget higher than $100 million. Maybe $150 million on the outside but $200 million for that movie in particular is too much.

?

The first Spider-man had a $140M budget in 2002 dollars. Since then, they have all been $200-300M.

Even if Sony is trying to rein in the budget on Homecoming, I will be shocked if they get it much lower than $150M. RDJ cameos aren't free.

 

[tkscz]

Ganking Gent's image.

Spider-Man: Homecoming, he's too high domestically and internationally. I'm thinking Homecoming will come in around $800 million worldwide, $250 domestically. That's on the low-end in my head, but based on past performance, I feel good with those guesses.

I think his Transformers numbers are correct domestically, but that international number is absurd. Justice League is pretty much right, assuming it's a competent film; the DC universe ceiling seems rather high. Power Rangers is right assuming it's not good. If it is, I'll kick that up to $250 million worldwide at best?

No thoughts on the rest.

Can't agree with that JL and Spider-man box office prediction. Most didn't think Suicide Squad would hit $600 million, let alone $700 million. JL as way more pull than SS, better number would be at least $700 to $800 million. Plus all the hype Civil War gave to Spider-man, I can see it hitting $700 million as well.

Same with that prediction for Beauty and the Beast. Holy shit that's low. Considering Cinderella hit $540 million and Maleficent hit $740 million, I'd say it would at least break $500. Hell, Jungle Book nearly hit $1 billion, I'm not sure why they predict such a low number for it. I honestly feel it could reach that $1 billion mark.