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[kswiston]

Can't agree with that JL and Spider-man box office prediction. Most didn't think Suicide Squad would hit $600 million, let alone $700 million. JL as way more pull than SS, better number would be at least $700 to $800 million. Plus all the hype Civil War gave to Spider-man, I can see it hitting $700 million as well.

Same with that prediction for Beauty and the Beast. Holy shit that's low. Considering Cinderella hit $540 million and Maleficent hit $740 million, I'd say it would at least break $500. Hell, Jungle Book nearly hit $1 billion, I'm not sure why they predict such a low number for it. I honestly feel it could reach that $1 billion mark.

The Justice League prediction was $950M. Add domestic and international together to get his Worldwide predictions.

 

[Gentleman Jack]

?

The first Spider-man had a $140M budget in 2002 dollars. Since then, they have all been $200-300M.

Even if Sony is trying to rein in the budget on Homecoming, I will be shocked if they get it much lower than $150M. RDJ cameos aren't free.

Maybe it's just RDJ's voice over Spidey's Xperia™ XZ wireless communication device.

 

[Schlorgan]

?

The first Spider-man had a $140M budget in 2002 dollars. Since then, they have all been $200-300M.

Even if Sony is trying to rein in the budget on Homecoming, I will be shocked if they get it much lower than $150M. RDJ cameos aren't free.

I feel like it'll be scaled back a lot from the previous ones. No Spider-Man 2 train fight for Homecoming.

 

[kswiston]

From what I've heard of the movie, I feel like it'll be scaled back a lot from the previous ones. No Spider-Man 2 train fight for Homecoming.

The last 4 films were extremely expensive, so being scaled back doesn't say much. Ant-Man was $130M, and I believe that was the cheapest Marvel Studios MCU production to date. I doubt that Spider-man of all films is going to come in cheaper.

If it avoids Sony budget inflation, my guess for Homecoming would probably be somewhere in the $150-175M range.

 

[guek]

The last 4 films were extremely expensive, so being scaled back doesn't say much. Ant-Man was $130M, and I believe that was the cheapest Marvel Studios MCU production to date. I doubt that Spider-man of all films is going to come in cheaper.

If it avoids Sony budget inflation, my guess for Homecoming would probably be somewhere in the $150-175M range.

$175M is my guess at the moment

 

[Strax]

This "budget x2 is the real cost" misconception has to stop.

 

[WaffleTaco]

I feel like it'll be scaled back a lot from the previous ones. No Spider-Man 2 train fight for Homecoming.

It's a Marvel movie, almost all of them have something blown up during one with a ridiculous fight right at the end.

 

[kswiston]

It's a Marvel movie, almost all of them have something blown up during one with a ridiculous fight right at the end.

That's almost all superhero films period.

 

[tkscz]

The Justice League prediction was $950M. Add domestic and international together to get his Worldwide predictions.

OH! I looked at that way wrong. I thought that was worldwide, not international only. My bad.

 

[Schlorgan]

The last 4 films were extremely expensive, so being scaled back doesn't say much. Ant-Man was $130M, and I believe that was the cheapest Marvel Studios MCU production to date. I doubt that Spider-man of all films is going to come in cheaper.

If it avoids Sony budget inflation, my guess for Homecoming would probably be somewhere in the $150-175M range.

I can honestly see it being closer to Ant-Man levels, but we won't know for sure until it comes out.

 

[hodayathink]

Funny how an RT% around 40% would probably be considered a "win" for JL

Beauty and the Beast is going to go far with Emma Watson. She's easily the most marketable star yet to be in these live action remakes.

I'll be surprised if Spider-man hits $900M but I suppose it's possible

Angelina Jolie says Hi.

 

[Mookie1515]

I have no desire to see Girl on a Train, but I'm always happy to see Emily Blunt succeed.

 

[guek]

Angelina Jolie says Hi.

Oh yeah. I totally forgot about Malificent. Isn't that technically a prequel though?

 

[Ninja Scooter]

Decided to check out the all time OW record for November to see what Dr. Strange is up against and I had forgotten that it's dominated by YA adaptations. The top 9 are all Hunger Games, Harry Potter and Twilight. Number 10 is Skyfall at $88 million. Wonder if Dr. Strange can crack that. Any idea on how it's tracking?

 

[Sibersk Esto]

Just for shits and giggles, any predictions for MAX STEEL this weekend?

 

[kswiston]

Decided to check out the all time OW record for November to see what Dr. Strange is up against and I had forgotten that it's dominated by YA adaptations. The top 9 are all Hunger Games, Harry Potter and Twilight. Number 10 is Skyfall at $88 million. Wonder if Dr. Strange can crack that. Any idea on how it's tracking?

I haven't seen anything recent. I would guess that $88M is a bit high, but who knows.

 

[vinnygambini]

I haven't seen anything recent. I would guess that $88M is a bit high, but who knows.

$88M seems high. We got Trolls that weekend too, so I'm thinking $50-60M.

Just for shits and giggles, any predictions for MAX STEEL this weekend?

Morgan tier ($2M)?

 

[andythinkpad]

I'm really surprised at how Girl on the Train has piggybacked off of the success of Gone Girl.

Very solid number for a movie that is carried by Emily "Sexy Pushup Girl" Blunt only.

 

[Biggest-Geek-Ever]

Ganking Gent's image.

This strikes me as the predictions of someone who put the bare minimum effort into researching the box office.

How anyone could seriously think The Mummy, a summer blockbuster starring Tom Cruise, will make $28M total domestically is beyond me.

 

[FTF]

This strikes me as the predictions of someone who put the bare minimum effort into researching the box office.

How anyone could seriously think The Mummy, a summer blockbuster starring Tom Cruise, will make $28M total domestically is beyond me.

That's prob the worst prediction on there. It'll make $28m domestic in like 2 days.

 

[Schlorgan]

I'm going to predict that JL will score in the high 60's-low 70's on RT. I want to wait and see the reception WW gets before I feel comfortable making a revenue prediction, though.

Spider-Man: Homecoming will be in the mid-80's on RT and will make at least $700 million worldwide.

 

[kswiston]

Predicting 60-70s RT for Justice league seems like the DCEU version of the Sonic Cycle. I will be happy if that happens, but will go in expecting 20s-30s.

Fool me thrice and all that.

 

[guek]

Most would be ecstatic if it matches Man of Steel's 55%

 

[Schlorgan]

Predicting 60-70s RT for Justice league seems like the DCEU version of the Sonic Cycle. I will be happy if that happens, but will go in expecting 20s-30s.

I don't really have an interest in the DCEU (hated BvS and was completely indifferent to SS), that's just my gut feeling. Though to be fair, that's also the score range that I expected for SS.

 

[Ross61]

JL and WW shouldn't face the problem that the other movies had and early word is positive so I'm more optimistic.

 

[Schlorgan]

While I'm in a predicting mood, I'll predict that Jack Reacher gets mid-to-high 70's on RT and makes at least $600 million.

Edit: An even 80% on RT.

 

[PhoncipleBone]

While I'm in a predicting mood, I'll predict that Jack Reacher gets mid-to-high 70's on RT and makes at least $600 million.

Edit: An even 80% on RT.

Last Jack Reacher film only did $218m. The sequel won't get anywhere near $600m.

 

[kswiston]

JL and WW shouldn't face the problem that the other movies had and early word is positive so I'm more optimistic.

Have people actually watched working prints of either film, or are you referring to WOM for the trailers? If it is the latter, people liked the first BvS trailer and the first 3 Suicide Squad trailers as well (especially Suicide Squad).

 

[Ross61]

Have people actually watched working prints of either film, or are you referring to WOM for the trailers? If it is the latter, people liked the first BvS trailer and the first 3 Suicide Squad trailers as well (especially Suicide Squad).

I'm talking about insider info.

 

[Sibersk Esto]

I'm talking about insider info.

The same insider info that said BVS got 'a standing ovation'?

 

[Ross61]

The same insider info that said BVS got 'a standing ovation'?

BVS never got a standing ovation. Only some fanboy's who were happy to see their favorite characters on screen.

 

[Schlorgan]

Last Jack Reacher film only did $218m. The sequel won't get anywhere near $600m.

BO 10/21-23/16 - Jack Falls Down And Breaks His Crown

Or:

BO 10/21-23/16 - Jack's Reacher Exceeds His Grasp

I got you fam.

That first one might be more appropriate for the second weekend though.

 

[kswiston]

Deadline is giving an early estimate of $7.5M on Friday for The Accountant, $5.5M for Kevin Hart: What Now? (which seems pretty good for stand up), and $500k for Max Steel.

Deadline also had a recent article putting Doctor Strange's tracking in the $55-75M range. Too wide a range to be all that much use.

Boxoffice.com's Long Range Forecast should be giving their first prediction for Rogue One next weekend. Any final guesses before then?

 

[Discotheque]

The same insider info that said BVS got 'a standing ovation'?

Snyder snuck in a tape of raucous applause at the end of the screening.

 

[kswiston]

For the three people who care about pre-Doctor Strange box office threads:


Friday Studio Estimates:

1) The Accountant - $9.1M
2) Kevin Hart: What Now? - $4.7M
3) The Girl on the Train - $3.9M (-58%) - $38M total
4) Miss Peregrine's Home for Peculiar Children (-41%) - $2.3M - $59M total
5) Deepwater Horizon - $1.9M (-44%) - $45M total
6) Magnificent Seven - $1.5M (-41%) - $81M total
7) Storks - $1.4M (-31%) - $55M total
8) Middle School: The Worst Years of my Life - $1.2M (-40%) - $11M total
9) Sully - $875k (-39%) - $116M total
10) Birth of a Nation - $805k (-69%) - $10M total
11) Max Steel - 640k

- The Accountant is off to a decent start. The budget estimate was $44M
- The Girl on the Train is not Gone Girl
- Birth of a Nation is shaping up to be this year's Steve Jobs

 

[broncobuster]

Somebody was trying to explain What Now to me and said it's part stand up, part action-comedy movie?

 

[Schlorgan]

I feel really bad for Deepwater Horizon. It hasn't even broken $80 million WW.

 

[Sgt. Kabukiman]

Somebody was trying to explain What Now to me and said it's part stand up, part action-comedy movie?

Yep, they apparently filmed a Bond-style intro co-starring Halle Berry:
http://www.ign.com/articles/2016/10/14/kevin-hart-what-now-review

 

[WaffleTaco]

Somebody was trying to explain What Now to me and said it's part stand up, part action-comedy movie?

I've seen some trailers for it, and it appears that it's not entirely stand up, but also has Kevin Hart doing other stuff. It looked really funny though. Kevin Hart has had a really good year though, this is his fourth movie as a starting actor.

 

[RBelong2Us]

Birth of a Nation might not even make as much as fox searchlight paid for the rights

 

[ViewtifulJC]

The Birth of a Bomba

 

[alleyezonme]

Birth of a Nation might not even make as much as fox searchlight paid for the rights

Will it be released overseas? I thought it was a great movie . When I google fox searchlight it says they paid 17.5 million for it.

The only ads I have seen personally for it have been online and by word of mouth. I cant imagine they spent a lot for advertising.

 

[Sibersk Esto]

Max Bomba. Who the hell thought to green light a Max Steel movie in 2016.

 

[BlazinAm]

This strikes me as the predictions of someone who put the bare minimum effort into researching the box office.

How anyone could seriously think The Mummy, a summer blockbuster starring Tom Cruise, will make $28M total domestically is beyond me.

At worst it could track like Tarzan which I think broke even.

 

[kswiston]

Max Bomba. Who the hell thought to green light a Max Steel movie in 2016.

They wanted to get in on that sweet Jem and the Holograms action

 

[3N16MA]

There's no way Homecoming has a budget higher than $100 million. Maybe $150 million on the outside but $200 million for that movie in particular is too much.

Homecoming is the new Deadpool?

 

[Linkura]

Will it be released overseas? I thought it was a great movie.

Not sure, but it's not the kind of movie that's going to make bank overseas. It's definitely targeted to the American audience.

 

[3N16MA]

For the three people who care about pre-Doctor Strange box office threads:


Friday Studio Estimates:

1) The Accountant - $9.1M
2) Kevin Hart: What Now? - $4.7M
3) The Girl on the Train - $3.9M (-58%) - $38M total
4) Miss Peregrine's Home for Peculiar Children (-41%) - $2.3M - $59M total
5) Deepwater Horizon - $1.9M (-44%) - $45M total
6) Magnificent Seven - $1.5M (-41%) - $81M total
7) Storks - $1.4M (-31%) - $55M total
8) Middle School: The Worst Years of my Life - $1.2M (-40%) - $11M total
9) Sully - $875k (-39%) - $116M total
10) Birth of a Nation - $805k (-69%) - $10M total
11) Max Steel - 640k

- The Accountant is off to a decent start. The budget estimate was $44M
- The Girl on the Train is not Gone Girl
- Birth of a Nation is shaping up to be this year's Steve Jobs

Still waiting for that 200M DOM film.

 

[FTF]

Still waiting for that 200M DOM film.

I think Dr. Strange or Fantastic Beasts will finally be it.

 

[kswiston]

Still waiting for that 200M DOM film.

Not many likely candidates left

Doctor Strange
Moana
Fantastic Beasts
Sing


There are a couple others that have outside shots at hitting $200M if the reception is great, but I think those are the last four that could reasonably end up in that range. I don't see Rogue One missing $300M.