oreomunsta
Banned
Lol I can see him spinning the election in this manner.
"GOP? I'm glad I broke them apart. Bunch of losers! I call them the Grand Old Pussies, did you know that? But don't forget, I have so much respect for women."
Boston Globe: GOP braces for post election turmoil.
- Thread starter PhoncipleBone
- Start date
- Status
Lol I can see him spinning the election in this manner.
"GOP? I'm glad I broke them apart. Bunch of losers! I call them the Grand Old Pussies, did you know that? But don't forget, I have so much respect for women."
One and done.
Sweeney Tom
Banned
You can no longer win a presidential election with only straight white men voting
If this election hasn't permaburned off the possibility of any other group voting for them, the GOP still has a chance. If not and this is a landslide in every other category, you will never live to see another GOP President.
If this election hasn't permaburned off the possibility of any other group voting for them, the GOP still has a chance. If not and this is a landslide in every other category, you will never live to see another GOP President.
Emperor_Uriel
Member
The fact remains that there's still a path for them to turn everything around and reverse a lot of our progress. Top Republicans are highly aware of this, and will likely have their biggest pushes ever in 2018 and 2020.
If, in January of 2021, Democrats still have Congress and the White House, then it's time to celebrate. Now is too early though, when the opportunity for a decisive last stand still exists on the horizon.
Electric Eye
Banned
Obama is hell bent on changing this I think they see a real good opening to start chipping away at the GOP at a local level. The time is ripe.
Mitt Romney got 93% of the Republican vote in 2012. He still lost handily.
But in seriousness it depends on what happens outside of the presidential election, if the house races aren't as bad for the GOP as I and I think many on here hope and suspect they might be, then they'll still hold majority in both the House and the Senate. Then it depends on the Senate elections in 2 years and if they lose anything there because of this.
While the GOP is in many ways tearing itself apart, if they still hold notable power [Senate, House, Governorships] then they'll be relevant even if falling apart.
Likely the GOP is going to hold onto the House, even though the Democrats will win the generic vote congressional election by ~4% because of how gerrymandered to shit it is.
The senate will be closer, and the Democrats have an edge, possibly winning it 53-47, but it's close, and could go either way.
Going to be an interesting election night for sure; the future of the supreme court is going to rely on Democrats getting to 50, assuming Republicans don't just block the nomination process for two years, which wouldn't surprise my, unfortunately.
PhoncipleBone
Banned
First time seeing this, and it is perfect.
I'm thinking 3 and 5 might be. I mentioned it in my post. Tea Party started as a tax thing. 4 is just about race. Like I said, there's some overlap, but there's still at least 4 distinct movements within the party. I suppose it depends on whether one thinks the Trump movement is about race or populism.
Fox Mulder
Member
Yeah, the GOP could be dangerous next time when their populist candidate isn't fucking Donald Trump.
What created his momentum isn't that half the country is racist, but the poor fucked over by politicians just wanting someone different. This shit will still be around in 4 years, maybe worse.
I love how the poor is always white people.
By volume alone they are. Unfortunately it's ultimately that same volume that wins elections.
I'm a Canadian, does Pennsylvania always vote Democrat and is it a sure thing for Clinton? I keep hearing from Republicans on my Facebook that he'll win because of PA.
When people talk about poor minorities, they're minorities. Also poor minorities generally vote for sane politicians, the poor white people feel the need to vote for crazy people. In fairness, the poorest still vote Democratic, it is the people a few steps down in the poverty scale that start voting crazy.
He has no shot at PA. Philadelphia will sink him. It is the Republican Unicorn.
The Shadow
Member
Poor white people are prone to blaming minorities for taking their jobs, tax money for handouts, property crime, etc.
Poor minorities are more inclined to find other reasons for their condition.
Pennsylvania is a state with urban Democratic bastions in the west and eas bordering a more conservative interior (sometimes jokingly called Pennsyltucky). It always goes Democrat in a presidential election because of turnout from the urban areas.
Has any other state been called out for their racial gerrymandering like NC? Our districts have to be redrawn for 2018 and I'm wondering just how much of an affect it could possibly have on a purple state.
Obama has mentioned this will be one of his pet causes after he is out of office.
Obama has mentioned this will be one of his pet causes after he is out of office.
I would .love for the GOP to crash and burn and reinvent itself as something more palatable, but I don't see that happening.
The way I see it they are going to be in this "civil war" until they start losing locally. Some seem to be able to read the writing on the wall that white people alone won't win you the white house and they need to become more inclusive to minorities. The problem is that argument won't gain any traction when the Joe Blows running in their state/local elections can win by doing the opposite.
The way I see it they are going to be in this "civil war" until they start losing locally. Some seem to be able to read the writing on the wall that white people alone won't win you the white house and they need to become more inclusive to minorities. The problem is that argument won't gain any traction when the Joe Blows running in their state/local elections can win by doing the opposite.
What happens in Clinton wins and the GOP stone walls her at every single step along the way. She already isn't super popular and had the GOP run a more regular candidate this would be a fuck of a lot closer. What if they run a Cruz next time around? I notice a ton of people here seem to talk like a) Clinton has already won and b) already won NEXT term as well.
BoboBrazil
Member
People like Ted Cruz aren't going away. He will be back running again in 2020.
Cruz isn't a regular candidate, I don't think. He's on the wrong side of a dozen social issues, and is completely inflexible. He's also quite despised even within his own party. A "regular candidate" would be someone more like Romney, Kasich, or Paul Ryan. Those people could at least begin to try and court women and minorities.
Has Clinton already won the next term? Certainly not, but incumbent presidents tend to have a pretty good edge in elections. You have to have a pretty bad first term to lose re-election. Combine that with voter demographic shifts that favor Democrats, and it's not unreasonable to see her sliding into a hard-fought second term. If the economy takes a significant downturn, then she will be sunk but that is par for the course. A president residing over a recession is always likely to get the boot.
DeaconKnowledge
Member
People thought Cruz had an open lane to the nomination until Trump sweeped the nomination from under him. who is to say some other Tea Party crazy doesn't do the same in 4 years? The GOP has to do something about the lunatic fringe or any nut with a platform built on crazy racist rhetoric will swoop in and mess everything up.
DirtyManos
Member
Nothing will really change until the gerrymandering that has caused the House and state governments to be such shitholes is fixed.
Jorok Goldblade
Member
So dismantle all of the hugely profitable media empires built on the premise of riling up the base for fun and profit? Not going to happen any time soon.
I don't that anyone on the lunatic fringe will be able to sweep the primaries again. Trump is an anomaly because he had celebrity and a vast fortune prior to joining. The Republicans would have told him to fuck off if they hadn't been terrified that he might mount a 3rd party campaign. Ironically, if they had access to his tax returns they probably would have realized that he doesn't have enough cash-on-hand to mount a legitimate campaign.
Any other alt-right crazies will probably be batted down before even the first debate. Since the RNC traditionally controls campaign funding, they can keep all their establishment candidates in line and on-message. Trump is a loose cannon precisely because he isn't beholden to the party, and can pay his own way in the event that the RNC won't.
I would be far more concerned about another wolf-in-sheep's-clothing candidate like G.W. Bush or Kasich than I would be concerned about Alex Jones 2020. Are there other right-wing billionaires that might want to try doing it Trump's way? Maybe, but after he gets trounced in the general election and severely damages his brand they will probably think twice.
Dash_Riprock
Member
This isn't 2008 and Clinton isn't Obama. She's not going to spend the first 2 years of her presidency trying to play nice with the GoP. They've been stonewalling for 8 years now and the Democrats know what to expect this time.
Also, I find it hilarious that people believe a candidate that lost the nom to Trump is somehow going to beat Clinton in an election, as if the only reason she is winning is cause Trump is the alternative. Internet echo chamber at its finest.
Elaugaufein
Member
It's actually demonstratably true that candidate choice isn't linear. A beating B and B beating C doesn't mean A will bear C. This is a source of a paradox in Preferential Voting.
And Clinton is not historically on solid ground here. She'll be the only candidate to win with her favourability rating and there's a reasonable argument to be made that Trump would set an even lower bar is the reason for this.
You want Clinton to win, so do I, but assigning any non-pro Clinton to the garbage bin on that basis isn't wise.
Both Clinton and Trump make a pretty good case that people will vote on party lines, regardless of how "favorably" they view their candidate. With demographics shifting towards the Democrats, I think this favors Clinton's re-election bid. If the Republicans can find someone that appeals to socially conservative Latinos that might be trouble, but after so many of them have supported Trump I don't see that as an easy task.
- Status
Similar threads
- Locked