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[sonycowboy]

Gamestop & EA have joined the parade saying that sales are soft and that the transition may be upon us, even though many hoped that it could be mitigated by continued current gen support and handhelds, but current gen sales seem to have fallen over the cliff.

I guess Microsoft has timed this pretty damn well. I'm upgrading my prospects for them every day it seems. If only they could have actually shipped some HW units.

I still don't know what the fuck is up with the low shipments. What could have gone so wrong? Or are they honestly holding supplies back to last throughout the holidays.

In any case, I suppose the absolutely abysmal current gen lineups can take a good part of the blame. No Zelda, no GTA, no Halo, no Final Fantasy, no Kingdom Hearts, no big Mario Game (for the GCN), and the Sony platformers went alternative.

 

[Sathsquatch]

Weren't sales down like 24% last month?

 

[Link316]

hope the weak sales is because people are getting tired of sequels and not because its console transition, every year around this time we get a new Tony Hawk, NFSU, PoP, etc, etc, its got to stop

 

[sonycowboy]

Weren't sales down like 24% last month?

And that was with strong DS & PSP sales that weren't around last year.

 

[GDJustin]

Gamestop's financials were at the high end of their expectations for the quarter, and they barely lowered their profit guidance at all...

 

[Letter to Elise]

I'm interested in the tie ratios with the 360 launch after GS' financial tease.

 

[Deg]

How about pc and the handhelds?

 

[Forgotten Ancient]

hope the weak sales is because people are getting tired of sequels and not because its console transition, every year around this time we get a new Tony Hawk, NFSU, PoP, etc, etc, its got to stop

I don't think most people have problems with sequels when they're not deliberately insulting the intelligence of gamers. But, when a new iteration of a franchise comes out every f-ing year, it's ridiculous. Annual releases give devs little time to innovate, expand, and refine the mechanics of a game. It's hard to believe that there's already more console versions of Tony Hawk than there are Zeldas. Nearly as many NFSU (which is a spinoff) as Mario Karts. More Burnouts (which is finally starting to stale) in this gen (counting the PSP) than Gran Turismos.

It's ok to tap into familar brands from time to time, but devs need to find new cows to start milking before I become lactose intolerant.

 

[puck1337]

There just isn't much compelling console software this year, and with all due respect to the above poster, there is a console transition happening right now - it isn't happening in the game buying public, it's happening in development houses everywhere.

The new generation is where new IP has a chance to distinguish itself, and that's where developers are putting their chips. In the eyes of many, there's no real point in trying to establish new brands on the PS2, Xbox, or Gamecube, because any new title is up against thousands of already written games, most of which are cheaply available as budget or used titles.

 

[Deg]

How is burnout getting stale? Its better than ever IMO. Yearly releases are a good thing. With a big jump once in a while. If it aint broke why fix it?

 

[Legal Step]

EA had soft sales before xenon shipped, they are just being pussies about having shitty titles on sale...

 

[heidern]

Gamestop & EA have joined the parade saying that sales are soft and that the transition may be upon us, even though many hoped that it could be mitigated by continued current gen support and handhelds, but current gen sales seem to have fallen over the cliff.

I guess Microsoft has timed this pretty damn well. I'm upgrading my prospects for them every day it seems. If only they could have actually shipped some HW units.

I guess when you think about it, this gen has been very long. The kind of gaming we get today sort of started way back with the Dreamcast. Then it really kicked off with the ps2, but that's now a full 5 years back so it seems as if the traditional life cycle pretty much held. So in that sense MS did come at the right time, although I suppose the figures are partially biased by the fact that MS are purposefully killing off the original xbox. However I think a fair bit of blame can be put on the ps2s price. If it was $129 or $99 software sales would no doubt be a fair bit higher.

One word of caution regarding this transition, there's no guarantee it will happen smoothly. There's also no guarantee that Microsoft will benefit with their new system if the old systems are showing weakness. People could hold off on both the current gen and the next gen until the market leader enters the market(as has happened in EVERY generation so far). The general view is that currently they are offering more of the same really, so if people aren't so interested in ps2/xbox why would they be interested in xbox 360 right now? Especially with the premium prices being asked for.

 

[koam]

Well no shit, there was practically nothing good that came out on console this fall. Last fall was amazing.

 

[vas]

Gamestop & EA have joined the parade saying that sales are soft and that the transition may be upon us, even though many hoped that it could be mitigated by continued current gen support and handhelds, but current gen sales seem to have fallen over the cliff.

I guess Microsoft has timed this pretty damn well. I'm upgrading my prospects for them every day it seems. If only they could have actually shipped some HW units.

I still don't know what the fuck is up with the low shipments. What could have gone so wrong? Or are they honestly holding supplies back to last throughout the holidays.

In any case, I suppose the absolutely abysmal current gen lineups can take a good part of the blame. No Zelda, no GTA, no Halo, no Final Fantasy, no Kingdom Hearts, no big Mario Game (for the GCN), and the Sony platformers went alternative.

It is pretty obvious why supply is so low, they have poor yields. This is also reflected in the type of the defects we are seeing, ie overheating. Microsoft are not complete idiots to create an artificial shortage.

This is very similar to the psp shortage, the archilies heel there being the supply of the lcd screens. Sony even had to relax quality control (letting some units pass with as many as 10+ dead pixels, normally totally unacceptable) in order to have a reasonable number of units out there.

 

[GDJustin]

Gamestop's financials were at the high end of their expectations for the quarter, and they barely lowered their profit guidance at all...

Don't ignore my post people

I have Gstop's financials right in front of me, and they did lower their sales guidance, but not significantly. Just seems more like a routine readjustment, to me.

I'm not sure what sonycowboy is talking about, to be honest.

 

[Izzy]

I guess Microsoft has timed this pretty damn well. I'm upgrading my prospects for them every day it seems. If only they could have actually shipped some HW units.

I still don't know what the fuck is up with the low shipments. What could have gone so wrong? Or are they honestly holding supplies back to last throughout the holidays.

The manufacturing of the key components started late.

 

[Forgotten Ancient]

How is burnout getting stale? Its better than ever IMO. Yearly releases are a good thing. With a big jump once in a while. If it aint broke why fix it?

Yup, it's the best version yet. It's also the version I stopped playing the fastest (I started at Burnout2). It's not that it's a bad game, it's that I've played virtually the same game 3 years in a row. I'm worried that the only really new thing in the next game will be the songs - which is reason enough to not buy it.

 

[Elios83]

Weak games,weak sales.
Anyway this had to be expected,we're in the middle of a transition,developers haven't put all their efforts on next gen development but at the same time they don't want to invest big budgets on current gen games anymore.

 

[Mrbob]

I'm not surprised sales are down. Current gen reached its peak last year. It is all downhiill now. 2004 is one of the best gaming years of all time, if not the best. Conversely, 2005 has been one on the worst. Thankfully Xbox 360 is here to save the year. Glad I jumped on the winning next gen team.

 

[thorns]

some info from gamespot conference call:

-Expected top sellers: COD 2,WWE,MKart DS,50 Cent,SW Battlefront 2,Nintendogs

-they emailed publishers that 49.99 PSP price point is too high. They want 39.99, some publishers were in agreement and some were not.

-PSP suffering from xb360 hype,less momentum(noteSP supplies were lower in Europe according to GAME)

-Xb360 attach 2x ps2 and xbox(Noteublishers better make sure they include a xb360 sku if possible over the next year)

-Edgier titles had harder time first 3 weeks of Nov., SW Battlefront and WWE met expectations.(Note:Edgier would include Warriors,GUN,TC IMO)

 

[HomerSimpson-Man]

How is 2005 one of the worst gaming years for you people? What systems do you play??

Damn if I know. 2005 has been freakin' fantastic.

 

[Mrbob]

I'm glad Gamestop is putting pressure on publishers to sell PSP games at $39.99 or less. This is the price where every PSP game should be. Hopefully other retailers are doing the same.

How is 2005 one of the worst gaming years for you people? What systems do you play??

Don't get me wrong, some stellar games came out in 2005. But there weren't many stand out games in my opinion and this is what I base the year on. Ninja Gaiden Black, FEAR, RE4, uhhhh, errrr, I'm starting to draw a blank. But I've been ready for the next gen transition since earlier this year. 360 has practically saved the year for me.

 

[Oracle Dragon]

Yup, it's the best version yet. It's also the version I stopped playing the fastest (I started at Burnout2). It's not that it's a bad game, it's that I've played virtually the same game 3 years in a row. I'm worried that the only really new thing in the next game will be the songs - which is reason enough to not buy it.

Depends what you are looking for, I guess. I had zero desire to quit playing Burnout 3 multiplayer with my Xbox Live group, but it got to the point where we all knew the tracks so well, it started to lose something.

Revenge was exactly what we were looking for: more tracks for Burnout. And they have a lot more life in them now, with all of the shortcuts.

In fact, the only thing I dislike about Revenge is the traffic checking. It made for some really intense races in BO3, since the slightest hit of a traffic car would trash you. I wish you could turn it off. But... take the good with the bad, and new tracks with new cars outweight everything else!

 

[Lo-Volt]

I'm glad Gamestop is putting pressure on publishers to sell PSP games at $39.99 or less. This is the price where every PSP game should be. Hopefully other retailers are doing the same.

I'm Lo-Volt, and I approve of this message.

 

[Letter to Elise]

I'm glad Gamestop is putting pressure on publishers to sell PSP games at $39.99 or less. This is the price where every PSP game should be. Hopefully other retailers are doing the same.

You are my hero, Mrbob! ^_^

~l2e

 

[Prine]

I'm not surprised sales are down. Current gen reached its peak last year. It is all downhiill now. 2004 is one of the best gaming years of all time, if not the best. Conversely, 2005 has been one on the worst. Thankfully Xbox 360 is here to save the year. Glad I jumped on the winning next gen team.

:thumbs up

SotC and RE4 are the only memorable games of 2005 (last gen games that is) IMO

 

[heidern]

Don't ignore my post people

I have Gstop's financials right in front of me, and they did lower their sales guidance, but not significantly. Just seems more like a routine readjustment, to me.

I'm not sure what sonycowboy is talking about, to be honest.

Well here's the story on gamasutra:

Representatives from North American video games retailer GameStop have reported financial details of the company’s third quarter, ended October 29th. During these three months sales rose by 28.2 percent to $534.2 million, although comparable store sales decreased by 12 percent.

As expected, a relative lack of big name titles, compared to the same time last year, was blamed for the softer results, with the company recording a net loss of $2.5 million, compared to a profit of $12.0 million in 2004. These results were at the high-end of previously announced guidance.

"Third quarter gross margins were positively affected by strong used video games sales as value-driven customers became a larger factor in the face of rising gas prices and general economic uncertainty," stated R. Richard Fontaine, chairman and CEO. "During November we experienced weaker than expected new video game software sales mainly due to core customers waiting for the launch of Microsoft's Xbox 360 and to value consumers continuing to gravitate to used video games. We anticipate this trend to continue to a degree throughout the holiday season, with gross sales levels declining, but strong margin contributions supporting forecasted earnings."

"On the Xbox 360 front, GameStop sold through every copy we had and did so in record time,” he added. “There is no question that both the core gamer and gift giver are very enthusiastic about this great product. In fact, our attach ratio of games and accessories to date has never been higher for any release in GameStop's history. Our only concern is that the total hardware released to date in the U.S., and to GameStop, are far less than we had anticipated. While we expect to be supplied throughout the holiday season, the exact quantities to be shipped are not yet clear."

 

[Forgotten Ancient]

And DMC3, Psychonauts, God of War (despite the fact I think it's average, I can understand why someone can find it memorable, and in many ways it is), Kirby: CC, Dragon Quest VIII, Digital Devil Saga I and 2 (especially 2), Castlevania: Dawn of Sorry, Phoenix Wright, Indigo Prophecy (a good console adventure game!). Just a few.

sell your DS, it's last gen?

 

[jett]

This year has been a-rockin', dunno what you people are smoking.

 

[bishoptl]

Grand Theft Auto: San Andreas and Metal Gear Solid 3 are enough to catapult 2004 over 2005...but as noted in Himuro's post, there were a lot of quality titles released this year. Not to mention the wondrous experiences known as Smackdown vs Raw 2006 and Dawn of War: Winter Assault**! Joyous, even!











































*buy18copies

 

[GDJustin]

Well here's the story on gamasutra:

Gamasutra gets much respect for me, don't get me wrong, but that article is taking a much more negative slant than the one I'm putting together as we speak, and I have the same numbers right in front of me. I think its a little too doom and gloom, based on the financial realities.

Edit: one glaring example is that the gamasutra article left out that the large gap between last year's net profit and this year's net loss was due to an expected and planned-for $18+ million merger spend... you can't JUST look at the #s year over year...

 

[Suikoguy]

I blame SquareEnix for Kingdom Hearts 2 AND Final Fantasy 12 both missing Holiday 2005

 

[Sathsquatch]

I think one major problem is that many of the best games of this year came out during the first half of the year, when sales are slow. Gt4, Forza, RE4, DMC3, and GOW all came out at bad times.

 

[sonycowboy]

Don't ignore my post people

I have Gstop's financials right in front of me, and they did lower their sales guidance, but not significantly. Just seems more like a routine readjustment, to me.

I'm not sure what sonycowboy is talking about, to be honest.

Then you also heard them say that used sales are a big part of why they're holding one a bit better.

Madden is going to be dropped $10 with no competition.
Handheld sales are up 100% over last year
There's a hardware launch with tons of accessories and software being sold

and yet, current gen software sales are in the toilet currently.


My topic was ~slightly overstated just to get people into the conversation, but it's not a rosy picture out there. Obviously, anniversarying Halo & GTA is no small feat, but there was a severe PS2 shortage last year and no PSP or Xbox 360, and barely an NDS.


Electronic Arts Says Sales In Early November Were Soft

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/yho...o&guid={3D4E845C-198E-48C6-BBB4-C5B136C18B42}

Investors worry about holiday game sales
Best Buy, Circuit City, Tweeter decline after GameStop's warning

http://www.thestreet.com/_yahoo/sto...54910.html?cm_ven=YAHOO&cm_cat=FREE&cm_ite=NA

n earnings report from GameStop (GME:NYSE - commentary - research - Cramer's Take) on Tuesday provided further evidence that -- industry hopes to the contrary -- the transition to a new generation of machines will likely be a disruptive time for the video-game sector.

As part of its report, the video-game vendor warned that sales of new games are weaker than expected. While demand is strong for Microsoft's (MSFT:Nasdaq - commentary - research - Cramer's Take) new Xbox 360 game console, supply of the devices has been hard to come by. Noting these developments, GameStop dramatically slashed its outlook for same-store sales in the fourth quarter.


Separately, at an investor conference, Electronic Arts (ERTS:Nasdaq - commentary - research - Cramer's Take) said that it saw soft sales in early November and plans to cut the price of its flagship Madden NFL football title by $10, according to Briefing.com.

Weakening demand for new games, short supply of new consoles, price cuts and disappointing sales are not unusual for a console transition. But industry analysts, investors and executives had hoped this generational jump would be different.

 

[gblues]

Well no shit, there was practically nothing good that came out on console this fall. Last fall was amazing.

Dragon Quest 8 and Shadow of the Collossus disagree with you.

 

[Forgotten Ancient]

Last gen? It just came out last year.

SotC and RE4 are the only memorable games of 2005 (last gen games that is) IMO

And DMC3, Psychonauts, God of War (despite the fact I think it's average, I can understand why someone can find it memorable, and in many ways it is), Kirby: CC, Dragon Quest VIII, Digital Devil Saga I and 2 (especially 2), Castlevania: Dawn of Sorry, Phoenix Wright, Indigo Prophecy (a good console adventure game!). Just a few.

I didn't say it was last gen. Your reply suggested that it was so.

 

[Prine]

Man how could i forget GoW. Awesome game.

 

[GDJustin]

Then you also heard them say that used sales are a big part of why they're holding one a bit better.

Madden is going to be dropped $10 with no competition.
Handheld sales are up 100% over last year
There's a hardware launch with tons of accessories and software being sold

and yet, current gen software sales are in the toilet currently.


My topic was ~slightly overstated just to get people into the conversation, but it's not a rosy picture out there. Obviously, anniversarying Halo & GTA is no small feat, but there was a severe PS2 shortage last year and no PSP or Xbox 360, and barely an NDS.


Electronic Arts Says Sales In Early November Were Soft

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/yho...o&guid={3D4E845C-198E-48C6-BBB4-C5B136C18B42}



http://www.thestreet.com/_yahoo/sto...54910.html?cm_ven=YAHOO&cm_cat=FREE&cm_ite=NA

Yeah, I was aware of their intention to more aggressively promote used titles. I mean, GameStop's financials weren't GOOD news by any means. Certainly not. They just weren't bad either.

EA, on the other hand... they're having a pretty dismal year. I was only referring to GStop, in my above post.

EDIT:

MY main point being this topic is a bit oversensational, which you just agreed to... so I guess we're on the same page

 

[argon]

It seems obvious that with higher game prices and consumer disinterest, portables are disrupting the home console market..

I expect it to play out similar to Japan.. Used games will be huge next gen, and portable games will start to take over the charts, at least until PS3/Rev get here.

 

[teruterubozu]

In fact, video game stocks were all down today because of Gamestop's warning.

Curious to see your article GDJ - posting on the Biz for tomorrow?

 

[sonycowboy]

It seems obvious that with higher game prices and consumer disinterest, portables are disrupting the home console market..

I think that there are a whole variety of reasons.

I'd say

1) The launch of the Xbox 360
2) The lack of a price cut on current gen hardware in 18 months
3) The handhelds taking market share
4) No "killer" titles to drive people into the stores (GTA, Zelda, Halo, FF)

are the main culprits, in that order

 

[GDJustin]

In fact, video game stocks were all down today because of Gamestop's warning.

Curious to see your article GDJ - posting on the Biz for tomorrow?

It'll be online... very soon. This evening. Don't expect much though, lol. Its not an in-depth piece... just an overview of Gstop's financials with a note regarding their updated guidance. Maybe a little longer than gamasutra's. We don't really hit these financial stories super hard, unless its huge news.

 

[human5892]

I can't believe the PS2 did not drop to $130 for the holiday season. I was sure it would.

 

[heidern]

Gamasutra gets much respect for me, don't get me wrong, but that article is taking a much more negative slant than the one I'm putting together as we speak, and I have the same numbers right in front of me. I think its a little too doom and gloom, based on the financial realities.

Edit: one glaring example is that the gamasutra article left out that the large gap between last year's net profit and this year's net loss was due to an expected and planned-for $18+ million merger spend... you can't JUST look at the #s year over year...

No, that's just my editing that made it look negative. Here's the full story. Also note that Gamestop will have opened new stores which will naturally push their sales up regardless of whether the industry as a whole grows. Like I quoted, like for like sales are down a big 12%. Not only that but margins were positively affected by used games. With regards to the viability of the current gen in terms of publishers the Gamestop results are bad.

 

[HomerSimpson-Man]

It must be said. Say not to $60 games next gen!!

 

[MightyHedgehog]

Dragon Quest 8 and Shadow of the Collossus disagree with you.

The throughput of quality titles hasn't really slowed dramatically, but the number of big hitters (with big marketing appeal) has. DQ8 and SotC aren't going to set the charts on fire in the west anytime soon, and I think that was expected. Hell, even all the big name stuff that has been delayed into next year, such as FF12 and KH2, aren't going to have the impact they could have had if they'd released this year.

 

[GDJustin]

No, that's just my editing that made it look negative. Here's the full story.

Ha, damn you! I now see the full article is much more reasonable!

But seriously, we're basically arguing two sides of the same coin. I guess I'm just a little more optimistic about Q4 that others that cover the gaming beat, for whatever reason (EA exlcuded... I think they're boned). Gstop's financials weren't good news, but I think they're gonna be fine in terms of revenue, net sales, same store sales, etc. in 06, and I don't think the industry as a whole will see a significant (or minor for that matter) downturn.

 

[heidern]

There have been big games like for example Gran Turismo 4. However many games have also done worse than expected. Tony Hawks sales crashed big time. Soul Calibur 3 is doing very weak considering it is the follow up to a game that sold 2 million units. But to put it simply Microsoft and Nintendo have both given up on the current gen and Sony have decided not to cut their pricing.

 

[WasabiKing]

I think one major problem is that many of the best games of this year came out during the first half of the year, when sales are slow. Gt4, Forza, RE4, DMC3, and GOW all came out at bad times.

I don't see any problem going against the norm and releasing a game outside of November. People here piss and moan how there is nothing to play during the summer.

 

[sonycowboy]

There have been big games like for example Gran Turismo 4. However many games have also done worse than expected. Tony Hawks sales crashed big time. Soul Calibur 3 is doing very weak considering it is the follow up to a game that sold 2 million units. But to put it simply Microsoft and Nintendo have both given up on the current gen and Sony have decided not to cut their pricing.

The first 4 months of the year were SPECTACULAR for sales. March, in particular, which had the PSP launch (not really a ton of units or $$$ there), but also a TON of big releases

GT4, Tekken, DMC 3, God of War, DOOM 3, Splinter Cell, Forza, Star Wars: Republic Commando, Mercenaries, Resident Evil 4, NBA Street, Zelda: Minish Cap, and quite a few others.