Broadband penetration -- how it will make free online gaming a reality
I've always been of the belief that online gaming will become lucrative as broadband penetration increases. That moment is not yet here - Microsoft have invested $2 billion in Xbox Live (and rising)... yet they have seen but a few hundred million in return. Thankfully, to most gamers, money won't matter: especially given how deep they know Microsoft's pockets are, and how patient the investors seem to be. It's a long haul strategy for Microsoft and it's proving popular. But how far off is this kind of online embrace for everyone else in the business?
OFCOM, the UK's communications regulator - which tracks all forms of 'new-media' has some new findings. It predicted at the turn of the millenium, that in half a decade - broadband penetration would almost exponentially increase; the amount of online homes online at any speed in the UK having an even greater increase. Here's where we stand now:
*** 53% of Britain's homes are online.
**** One third of that, or 17.6% approx enjoy a broadband connection.
***** There are 55,000 new broadband connections made each week in the UK
If you were to only take the 25 million homes built in the UK since 1850, that's 13.25 million homes online - 4.4 million with broadband. In a perfect 2.4 children world that's potentially 53 million kids with internet access or 17.6 million with broadband. Alas, it's not a perfect world. These estimates could be skewed in either direction depending on any number of things. And of course, even if you were to try to apply them to gaming as a pro-online argument: how many of those homes own online-capable games consoles?
The good news is this: high speed internet is on the rise! And fast! I can't even imagine what US or JPN penetration is like, or what figures are like for elsewhere in Europe (although according to OFCOM, the UK is one of the best in Euroland in this regard).
I forsee having a networked home being as ubiquitous as the television set in our lifetime. And long before that kind of penetration is realised, there'll be enough people online in the world, at fast enough transfer speeds that gamers can enjoy quality Peer 2 Peer gaming with one another for free! MMORPGs will probably always have maintenance costs until someone finds a better model... but think of how exciting this is for all of you online-Nintendo-nuts!
...That critereon that Nintendo wants/needs to see before it throws serious weight behind the idea is growing. Soon we will no longer be a priviledged minority in the userbase. Soon lot's of their customers will be able to take advantage of it! If you're getting online-gaming kicks from the one manufacturer in the industry right now who can afford to do it properly: then props to you! You should be having a good time. To the Nintendo fans among you - is it really that bad an idea that Nintendo waits until they can offer something similar for free? In case you're wondering, I actually think that short wait is nearing it's end already.
Thinking on about what Reggie and Nintendo have been saying regarding wireless multiplayer too: this is bound to become a massive thing. Preston, which is no national landmark by any means, has become the first city centre in the UK to establish a city-wide WiFi network. You can bet London, Liverpool, Manchester and even smaller areas will follow - with cable companies here like Telewest/Blueyonder and NTL already pimping the latest hubs/switches and wireless routers for the modern home: for people wanting to use multiple internet-ready devices. You'll probably find companies across the pond are doing likewise. Cost-wise, prices on the hardware requirements are coming down, and the more people that lap it up, the more attractive business becomes for providers and wouldbe competition. The better the competition? It becomes even easier to bring prices down. Keep an eye out (wherever you are in the world) for the signs of growing popularity in high-speed connectivity. It's the future, I've tasted it!
The beginning of an online world as we are destined to know it?
I think so! I don't think I'm going out on a limb here: it's not the end of the world because Nintendo isn't making online games right now.
For all this talk of waiting for the right business model, and a desire to offer free online gaming - the skeptics could be forgiven for thinking Nintendo will never jump in. But mark my words on this - you can bet your bottom dollar - in the next few years, broadband is going to be significantly widespread. I believe Nintendo will make online games, and they may even encourage others to do it before that. While online gaming for me has never been a necessity, and I personally find the variety in genre and creativity of most online games to be lacking, there are some gems out there! Allow me to finish in telling you what you already know: playing Nintendo games online is gonna ROCK.
