Some Canadians whove worked with both the Obama and Trump administrations on the softwood lumber dispute believes that until this week, the discussions were more substantive with the current administration than with its predecessor.
So what happened? Two things, perhaps. First, Trump has been having a lousy time on trade, which was one of the two or three top issues that got him elected. He cant get his nominee for chief trade representative, Robert Lighthizer, confirmed. He hasnt been able to formally start the 90-day process toward a NAFTA renegotiation. Hes backed down on a trade fight with China, which is the fight some Trump aides entered politics to wage (if you have some time, check out this astonishing documentary by Peter Navarro, now a trade advisor to Trump).
Whats left? Im told that at 1:46 p.m. on Monday, Fox News carried an interview with a Wisconsin dairy farmer who has hit hard times and blames Canada. The President was watching, and was greatly displeased. Coming as it did on the heels of Trumps visit last week to the Snap-On Tools plant in Kenosha, the Fox News story egged the President on in his growing suspicion that Canada, far from being cuddly and Ivanka-friendly, is actually a marauding border-squatting trade succubus.
The relationship has come so far, so fast. Only three days after Trumps inauguration, his informal economic advisor Stephen Schwarzman was in Calgary briefing the Trudeau cabinet on bilateral affairs. In remarks to reporters, Schwarzman was full of sunshine. One of the important things is the unusually positive view thats held of Canada, he said. Canadas been a great partner of the United States for as long as anybody can remember. Trumps arrival might portend a changed climate, maybe some modifications, Schwarzman said. But basically things should go well for Canada.
And now? The 20 per cent tariff that seems about to hit Canadian lumber exports to the U.S. is neither unexpected, Im told, nor out of line with earlier U.S. tactics during this interminable dispute. And Canadian officials continue to talk regularly with their U.S. counterparts at senior levels. Its not inconceivable there could be an agreement within weeks, the Canadians believe.
But Canadian officials cannot discern any consistency in the Trump administrations tone from day to day.