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Canadian PoliGAF - 42nd Parliament: Sunny Ways in Trudeaupia

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XEidDMf.png


Math is difficult and scary guys. Best not to proceed.

Are you kidding me, everybody loves math. Just ask Ontario.
 

maharg

idspispopd
Whose statement is this lmao

It's from the Liberals' minority report.

XEidDMf.png


Math is difficult and scary guys. Best not to proceed.

This is a common complaint and it's such bullshit. It doesn't matter if the formula is simple or complex if the goal is to allocate seats proportionally to votes overall and it achieves that. The formula is complex because no one wants pure PR, where the formula is as simple as possible.

This kind of obsession over surface simplicity is what gets us our broken system that shoves all the real world complexity of vote decision making under a big lumpy rug.

Also, this is not a terribly complex formula. The only symbol in it that's even remotely advanced is the sum, and that's involved in the allocation of seats now (obviously, voting always involves a sum). I'm pretty sure the formula of seat allocation from votes in FPTP would actually make the author's eyes boggle as well.


[edit]

Wait a second... This formula is literally just the gallagher index, which describes the proportionality of a system (specifically, how far the vote totals were from their seat allocation). Are the liberals going to come out against other kinds of indexes as well? WTF is this shit. I think when you point at the Bloc Quebecois or the Reform Party/CPC western bloc most Canadians can understand that those are disproportionate outcomes, whether you throw the math that proves it at them or not.
 

Sibylus

Banned
The Electoral Reform Committee's report has been brought in:

- Recommends that there should be some form of MMP system.
- Recommends that there should be a referendum on its adoption.
- They specifically cite that the system shouldn't score higher than a 5 on the Gallagher Index (the current system scores a 17).
- They say that whatever MMP model the government employs should not involve a closed list.
- They also, somewhat randomly, recommend that the government should amend the Elections Act to create financial incentives for political parties to run more female candidates.

Fantastic! I still have many misgivings about a referendum, but this is something concrete to apply pressure with.

And the Liberal addendum playing stupid for sake of partisan gain is aggravating. Come the fuck on.
 
I just did a quick google job to find 2 articles from 6 and 4 months ago mentionning that 65% and 73% of canadians wanted a reform, why is today's poll so drastically different

At least one of those polls found that most Canadians don't even know what electoral system we currently have, so I wouldn't put any stock in those.

Also, ugh to MMP. If the choice is that or FPTP in a referendum, then I'll happily vote for FPTP. It may not be perfect, but it's infinitely better than a system that has different tiers of MPs and larger ridings. I'd rather see the number of MPs doubled, and change it so that candidates no longer need party leaders to sign their nomination forms. That'd change the system in a hurry, and we'd get MPs who were way more independent than they would be in an MMP system.
 

Kifimbo

Member
They should have used a Markov chain Monte Carlo method. Now that is complex for the average layman.

This...is just the square root of a sum (OMG, HIDE THAT SIGMA).
 

maharg

idspispopd
At least one of those polls found that most Canadians don't even know what electoral system we currently have, so I wouldn't put any stock in those.

Also, ugh to MMP. If the choice is that or FPTP in a referendum, then I'll happily vote for FPTP. It may not be perfect, but it's infinitely better than a system that has different tiers of MPs and larger ridings. I'd rather see the number of MPs doubled, and change it so that candidates no longer need party leaders to sign their nomination forms. That'd change the system in a hurry, and we'd get MPs who were way more independent than they would be in an MMP system.

If by infinitely better you mean infinitely worse, sure.

Ugh to FPTP. Nearly anything is better.
 
MMP doesn't bother me; more power to the Urban voter (we all now that Urban voters' vote count less presently)

living in Bloc Head ridings, maybe my Liberal vote will count
 

djkimothy

Member
Liberals dig in heels against election referendum. Responding to the head video in the article. Yeah, the spinning that occurred during question period by the Liberals is unforgivable. I hope that the other parties continue to hit them on this.

On other news, can Nathan Cullen please run for leader of the NDP. I'm liking him a lot.

Yah but, so do the NDP and May. Even the linked article mentions it. What is the issue here?

http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/wherry-electoral-reform-committee-1.3866879

But the New Democrats and May are not enthusiastic about a referendum: "While it remains an option," they write, "we have serious concerns about holding a referendum on electoral reform."

Speaking to reporters on Thursday, NDP reform critic Nathan Cullen said the government still has "options" for implementing a new system.
 

Slavik81

Member
The Liberals were elected without any concrete policy on electoral reform. I have zero faith they will actually achieve anything. If voters actually cared about this issue, they'd have demanded that the Liberals actually figure out what they were going to do before electing them.

The Ontario proportional representation proposal crashed and burned. The government did everything right, as far as I could tell. They had an extensive public consultation. There was all kinds of information about the system on TVO in the months leading up to the referendum. Still an absolute failure.

My money is that voters like the idea of election reform in general, but don't actually care that much and will balk when confronted with a specific proposal. The Liberals knew that, and hence got away with a vague election promise that allowed every voter to imagine the future in which they got exactly what they wanted.
 

Nester99

Member
The Liberals were elected without any concrete policy on electoral reform.


https://www.liberal.ca/realchange/electoral-reform/

We are committed to ensuring that 2015 will be the last federal election conducted under the first-past-the-post voting system.

We will convene an all-party Parliamentary committee to review a wide variety of reforms, such as ranked ballots, proportional representation, mandatory voting, and online voting.

This committee will deliver its recommendations to Parliament. Within 18 months of forming government, we will introduce legislation to enact electoral reform

Seems concrete enough for me. This will be the last election with first past the post, unless we do really well in first past the post, then we will keep it until we no longer do well then we will promise to get rid of it again.

Shameful liars. This government will be worse than the last....and that's a fucking feat.
 

orochi91

Member

Sibylus

Banned
Lol, this has become so tedious.

3 of the 4 main parties clearly don't want a referendum, and rightfully so given how it failed in Ontario.

Liberals have a majority mandate, so they ought to start acting like it and pass whatever electoral reform they want.

Ding. Backing away from their majority mandate and explicit promises to consult and pass within 18 months is sheer political cowardice. You want this to be your legacy, Trudeau?
 

djkimothy

Member
Lol, this has become so tedious.

3 of the 4 main parties clearly don't want a referendum, and rightfully so given how it failed in Ontario.

Liberals have a majority mandate, so they ought to start acting like it and pass whatever electoral reform they want.

But you know what that will lead to. The opposition will cry that the people haven't been consulted. This is one of those political footballs that will just turn into a mess.
 
- Recommends that there should be some form of MMP system.
- Recommends that there should be a referendum on its adoption.
- They specifically cite that the system shouldn't score higher than a 5 on the Gallagher Index (the current system scores a 17).

Let's all read the sections on Tactical Voting and Collusion and think for 2 seconds about what problem we're trying to solve here.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mixed-member_proportional_representation

A referendum seems like a good way to drain party coffers and upset the electorate.
In between elections, people don't want to hear about elections.

The current system does not score a 17. The results of the last election scored a 17.
The people trying to explain the issue don't seem to understand the most basic concepts.
 

Slavik81

Member
https://www.liberal.ca/realchange/electoral-reform/

Seems concrete enough for me. This will be the last election with first past the post, unless we do really well in first past the post, then we will keep it until we no longer do well then we will promise to get rid of it again.

Shameful liars. This government will be worse than the last....and that's a fucking feat.
It's not concrete at all. That's a plan to make a plan.

They're probably going to make that plan they promised, and it's probably going to go nowhere once they do.
 
If by infinitely better you mean infinitely worse, sure.

Ugh to FPTP. Nearly anything is better.

Nah.

The Liberals were elected without any concrete policy on electoral reform. I have zero faith they will actually achieve anything. If voters actually cared about this issue, they'd have demanded that the Liberals actually figure out what they were going to do before electing them.

The Ontario proportional representation proposal crashed and burned. The government did everything right, as far as I could tell. They had an extensive public consultation. There was all kinds of information about the system on TVO in the months leading up to the referendum. Still an absolute failure.

My money is that voters like the idea of election reform in general, but don't actually care that much and will balk when confronted with a specific proposal. The Liberals knew that, and hence got away with a vague election promise that allowed every voter to imagine the future in which they got exactly what they wanted.

Bingo. No matter what the Fair Vote types in here may insist, there's no secret majority of Canadians who are desperate to change our voting system. When PEI could only get a third of its people out to vote despite the fact a) it's by far the most politically engaged province in Canada, b) they lowered the voting age to 16, c) gave people ten days to vote, and d) gave multiple ways to vote, it should be pretty clear that most people just don't care. Sure, when pressed by pollsters they'll pay lip service to the idea of every vote counting since that's what they know the "right" thing to say is, but then turn around and admit they don't actually know what system we have now. Everything about systems like MMP just reeks fringe parties realizing their ideas don't have a broad base of support, and that they'd rather do an end run around democracy than, you know, come up with broadly popular ideas.

If the Liberals try and jam through MMP just to appease NDP and Green party hacks, I could actually see myself voting Conservative next election, so long as they promise to get rid of it.
 

maharg

idspispopd
Bingo. No matter what the Fair Vote types in here may insist, there's no secret majority of Canadians who are desperate to change our voting system.

You keep saying this, but no one's saying that. The argument is about what's right, not what's popular. That you think it's right that your vote counts more than mine doesn't is cool and all, but an appeal to the popularity of a majoritarian opinion is not terribly convincing.

And the polling does show that when given information, people generally agree that the current system is unfair and that other options are more fair. They also show that they literally believe change will never happen because the system we live in, and the politics it engenders (majoritarian winner-take-all), has made them cynical. And the Liberals are currently reinforcing that.
 

SRG01

Member
Bingo. No matter what the Fair Vote types in here may insist, there's no secret majority of Canadians who are desperate to change our voting system. When PEI could only get a third of its people out to vote despite the fact a) it's by far the most politically engaged province in Canada, b) they lowered the voting age to 16, c) gave people ten days to vote, and d) gave multiple ways to vote, it should be pretty clear that most people just don't care. Sure, when pressed by pollsters they'll pay lip service to the idea of every vote counting since that's what they know the "right" thing to say is, but then turn around and admit they don't actually know what system we have now. Everything about systems like MMP just reeks fringe parties realizing their ideas don't have a broad base of support, and that they'd rather do an end run around democracy than, you know, come up with broadly popular ideas.

If the Liberals try and jam through MMP just to appease NDP and Green party hacks, I could actually see myself voting Conservative next election, so long as they promise to get rid of it.

I have a rather cynical theory that no one really cares about democracy unless it intrudes into their day to day lives, either by policy or by large elections.
 

Tiktaalik

Member
So apparently Monsef is going around with a card with the formula on it as a prop to talk about how Scary The Maths are?

v84iLyS.jpg


Maryam Monsef Tries To Use Math Formula To Mock Electoral Reform Committee


The minister of democratic institutions attempted to use a mathematical formula to deride months of work by the special all-party committee she tasked with studying electoral reform.

Maryam Monsef sparked outrage from opposition MPs in question period Thursday when she charged that the group did not get the job done with its long-awaited report, released earlier that day.

The committee recommended that the Trudeau government design a proportional voting system and hold a national referendum to determine support from Canadians. Liberal MPs on the 12-member group, however, urged the government not to change the voting system in time for the next election so that more Canadians can be consulted.

Conservatives pressed Monsef in the House of Commons to commit to holding a referendum before any changes are made to the voting system. New Democrats urged her to implement the committee’s recommendations to move beyond the first-past-the-post system to one that is proportional.

In response, Monsef bemoaned that the group failed to provide a “specific” alternative system.

However, the committee’s mandate was always to “identify and conduct a study of viable alternative voting systems,” and the report outlines possible proportional systems to consider.

“We asked the committee to help answer very difficult questions for us. They did not do that,” Monsef said, sparking jeers. “We now have to make those hard changes.”

Under sustained pressure, Monsef highlighted one recommendation that the government use the so-called “Gallagher Index” as a tool while designing a new proportional model. The math formula measures the degree of disproportion between the share of votes received by parties and their number of seats in the legislature.

Monsef had an enlarged picture of the equation printed on a piece of paper and, though props aren’t allowed in the House, it was visible as she suggested that the committee recommended a math formula instead of a new system.

“The committee did not offer a specific alternative to first-past-the-post. Instead, it offered us the Gallagher Index,” she said.

The minister incredulously charged that Ambrose wants a referendum on the question: “Would Canadians like to take the square root of the sum of the squares of the difference between the percentage of the seats for each party and the percentage of the votes passed?”

She was heckled as she read the prepared remark.

Monsef used the same tack on NDP democratic reform critic Nathan Cullen a little later as he pressed Liberals to fulfil their promise that the 2015 election will be the last under first-past-the-post.

“I have to admit that I am a little disappointed because what we had hoped the committee would provide us with was a specific alternative system to first past the post,” Monsef said. “Instead, it provided us with the Gallagher Index."

She said the committee “did not complete the hard work we had expected it to,” a slam that made many opposition MPs livid.

At a press conference after question period, Monsef again turned to the Gallagher Index when the going got rough.

“They’ve not helped answer the hardest question of all which is an alternative to first-past-the-post,” she said.

A reporter insisted that the committee wasn’t asked to come up with an alternative system, but rather to identify and research different systems. It did that.

Again, Monsef held up the equation for the cameras.

Ambrose and Cullen both criticized Monsef's performance and suggested she was trying to play Canadians for fools.

“She insulted the hard work of members of Parliament and frankly it is a disgrace,” Ambrose said.

The interim Tory leader also wondered why Prime Minister Justin Trudeau wasn’t in the House to respond to a report involving one of his major campaign promises.

Cullen accused Monsef of looking for dissension at a time when parties were able to compromise.

“Stop it. People aren’t stupid,” Cullen said. “Let’s get to work.”

Cullen posted this on his twitter.

https://twitter.com/nathancullen/status/804475569261907968

CzNOiJh.jpg
 

Azih

Member
but it's infinitely better than a system that has different tiers of MPs and larger ridings.
Have you studied how MMP actually works in the places it's used? Places like Germany, New Zealand and Scotland? I can point you to an academic paper that shows the 'tier' concern doesn't apply in practice. All MPs elected in MMP do the same things no matter how they're elected.
 
So apparently Monsef is going around with a card with the formula on it as a prop to talk about how Scary The Maths are?

This twitter thread about sums up what I think about that. Jesus. This is gross for so many reasons.

Even if Electoral Reform isn't a major issue for voters. This behaviour out of our government should be throwing huge fucking alarm bells. If this is how they act when it comes to the major topic of our electoral system, how can we trust them to do even the more minor things like Marijuana Legalization or really anything else they promised properly.

You can't claim to be for evidence based government and then turn around and try to throw out and belittle mathematics.
 

bremon

Member
I mean I hate to say it about a 32 year old but maybe at my age you're "just not ready".

This government is trying its damnedest to disappoint me and it's succeeding. I'm hearing on CBC radio and elsewhere "no one wanted liberals in JUST for this issue". Where do you draw the line on broken promises is that's the case?
 

maharg

idspispopd
I am pretty sure I've never voted for a winner federally, though I've had "acceptable" MPs twice (both Liberals, first I didn't live in the riding for their last win and my current MP who I actually like a lot, in spite of this shit).
 

Pedrito

Member
You seriously think that Monsef is coming up with these dumb talking points herself? It's just marching orders. Even if she resigns, the next minister will do and say exactly the same thing.

If the Liberals really want to sabotage electoral reform, I'm sure they can do that without looking as dumb as they are right now. Two days after the "we'll finance a green future with oil" (even if true it sounds stupid af), we now have "Canadians are too dumb for maths". Who's coming up with that shit? Maybe it's the advisors that should get fired (Butts?).
 

Silexx

Member
You seriously think that Monsef is coming up with these dumb talking points herself? It's just marching orders. Even if she resigns, the next minister will do and say exactly the same thing.

If the Liberals really want to sabotage electoral reform, I'm sure they can do that without looking as dumb as they are right now. Two days after the "we'll finance a green future with oil" (even if true it sounds stupid af), we now have "Canadians are too dumb for maths". Who's coming up with that shit? Maybe it's the advisors that should get fired (Butts?).

This. Monsef is not acting alone here. She's taking marching orders.
 

Pedrito

Member
Are politicians and journalists elsewhere in Canada losing their shit over R. v. Jordan or is it just a Québec thing? Because here it's the only thing we hear about and you'd think the world is crumbling and the streets will be inundated with freed rapists any day now.
 

gabbo

Member
Are politicians and journalists elsewhere in Canada losing their shit over R. v. Jordan or is it just a Québec thing? Because here it's the only thing we hear about and you'd think the world is crumbling and the streets will be inundated with freed rapists any day now.

Can't say it's making waves here in Ontario
 

imBask

Banned
Are politicians and journalists elsewhere in Canada losing their shit over R. v. Jordan or is it just a Québec thing? Because here it's the only thing we hear about and you'd think the world is crumbling and the streets will be inundated with freed rapists any day now.

Can't say it's making waves here in Ontario

I live in Montreal and I don't even know what he's talking about... am I the crazy one?
 
Are politicians and journalists elsewhere in Canada losing their shit over R. v. Jordan or is it just a Québec thing? Because here it's the only thing we hear about and you'd think the world is crumbling and the streets will be inundated with freed rapists any day now.

What are you talking about?
 
Are politicians and journalists elsewhere in Canada losing their shit over R. v. Jordan or is it just a Québec thing? Because here it's the only thing we hear about and you'd think the world is crumbling and the streets will be inundated with freed rapists any day now.

This is honestly the first I've even heard of it, and I read way more news than is healthy every day.

Reading this, though, I'd be shocked if the rest of Canada doesn't pick up on it soon.

You keep saying this, but no one's saying that. The argument is about what's right, not what's popular. That you think it's right that your vote counts more than mine doesn't is cool and all, but an appeal to the popularity of a majoritarian opinion is not terribly convincing.

And the polling does show that when given information, people generally agree that the current system is unfair and that other options are more fair. They also show that they literally believe change will never happen because the system we live in, and the politics it engenders (majoritarian winner-take-all), has made them cynical. And the Liberals are currently reinforcing that.

And you say this, but at the same time, this seems to be a pretty common sentiment about PR proponents:

Great that they agree on a proportional system. That effectively means on the Federal level that Ranked Ballots (aside from STV) are dead. Annoyed that they came back with a referendum because your average citizen isn't going to take the time to educate themselves on the proposed systems. I can just imagine the misinformation campaign now. "The Liberals are trying to kill democracy. Vote FPTP now!"

Then I saw this that came out, and oh FFS. Now all we need is the opposition forcing them into a referendum and we are on a path to an exact repeat of what happened in Ontario where the government purposefully tries to tank it by either refusing to advertise the referendum... or campaigning against it despite the evidence and recommendations from the most knowledgeable on the topic.

...that the reason MMP failed in Ontario was just because the "average citizen" just wasn't smart enough to get it. That's nonsense. MMP failed here because it was a terrible proposal, and it didn't take much research to see that.

And it has nothing to do with me thinking my vote "counts more", it's that you and I have a fundamentally different belief as to what elections are supposed to achieve. I think their purpose is to elect a government that can achieve things, and that sometimes that means accepting that people with a point of view I don't agree with get to run the country. From my perspective, you (and most PR proponents) seem to fetishize representation and view government as a debate club.

This twitter thread about sums up what I think about that. Jesus. This is gross for so many reasons.

And this is how that same person explains the Gallagher Index. If that's the level of math knowledge required to understand why a system supposedly works, then yeah, I'd say that general skepticism is, at the very least, understandable. Even if I was in favour of something like MMP, I'd think that I'd be concerned about the fact that the current system can be summarized pretty succinctly -- "Whoever gets the most votes wins the seat" -- whereas the alternatives can't.
 

Pedrito

Member
I live in Montreal and I don't even know what he's talking about... am I the crazy one?

What are you talking about?

Charges getting dropped because of unreasonable delays in the criminal justice system. A semi-famous biker got off scot-free because of that and now every accused are trying their luck with an application for stay of proceedings. Media/opposition are acting like every criminals will get away with it, even though applications like that rarely suceed, and that a national problem decades in the making can be solved in a matter of days/weeks.
 

maharg

idspispopd
And it has nothing to do with me thinking my vote "counts more"

And yet, it's so very easy for you to be in favour of the status quo when your two favourite parties are always the winner. It's also easier when you've, I'm going to I think safely assume, ever elected someone who you voted for in your riding or in government. This is why I think it's important that your vote counts more than mine in this debate. It's just plain easy for you to say our concerns don't matter.

, it's that you and I have a fundamentally different belief as to what elections are supposed to achieve. I think their purpose is to elect a government that can achieve things, and that sometimes that means accepting that people with a point of view I don't agree with get to run the country. From my perspective, you (and most PR proponents) seem to fetishize representation and view government as a debate club.

This is a load of horse shit. And if you want to use loaded words to describe the position of people you disagree with, how 'bout I say that you fetishize dictatorships of the minority? Can we have some respect here, or do you just want to trivialize other people's concerns by calling them fetishes?

The problem is that governments that are unrepresentative win, and have no motive to cooperate with others. These are real problems and you can't just wish them away. They brought us Harper, and they will absolutely bring us worse in the future.

And this is how that same person explains the Gallagher Index. If that's the level of math knowledge required to understand why a system supposedly works, then yeah, I'd say that general skepticism is, at the very least, understandable. Even if I was in favour of something like MMP, I'd think that I'd be concerned about the fact that the current system can be summarized pretty succinctly -- "Whoever gets the most votes wins the seat" -- whereas the alternatives can't.

MMP and FPTP are both things you apply the Gallagher Index to. All electoral systems are. The point isn't whether the Gallagher Index is complicated, it's that it's an objective mechanism to measure an election outcome for a very specific and obvious measure: The election's proportionality. And right now, let's be clear, you're defending the government making a cynical ploy to scare people with math when out the other side of their mouth they're claiming to be in favour of reasoned government. This is baffling.

And any system with a low gallagher index can be succinctly summarized as "parties get seats proportionate to their vote percentage." It's really not that complicated. And it's ridiculous to act like the election stops at the seat. The complexity in FPTP is what happens when you run hundreds of elections simultaneously and combine their results in near arbitrary ways. It may look simple, but it's not. Just take a look down south. The winner of their election, done in 538 FPTP elections, is the person who got the second most votes. It's no different here, aside from the viability of third parties.
 
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