Unknown One
Member
Our best is not good enough, our dumbasses elected his dumbass.
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China escalating hostile rhetoric towards Trump.
- Thread starter ItWasMeantToBe19
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Our best is not good enough, our dumbasses elected his dumbass.
ItWasMeantToBe19
Banned
No, wars are absolutely bad for the economy unless there is a lot of unemployment.
4.6% unemployment is not a lot.
And even then, wars are good for the economy in tough times only because literally any spending would be good for the economy in those times. The government could spend a much of money hiring people to dig holes and then fill those holes in and that would be good for the economy.
The Chinese could absolutely win a fight over Taiwan. They can't project power and extend supply lines around the world (yet), but Taiwan is like right there. The US could kill a lot of Chinese soldiers if they insisted on putting up a serious fight, but they can't hold the island forever.
They don't want to blink and lose face, but they also really don't want a trade war or (worse yet) a real war. Both countries would face disastrous consequences of a major fallout between the two countries, but I think the effects would be even more pronounced in China. They are the more rationale actors at this point (as much as it pains me to say that), so they're not going to rush into war (whether trade or actual). Using strong words now is probably designed to help remind the Trump fools that there are limits to what they can do/say.
metalslimer
Member
Also, even if you believe that the USA would eventually prevail in a cold war and trade war with China, why would you possibly be excited about the destabilzation around the world that will happen because of this?
I think China would be willing to deal with the effects far longer than the American populace would be. There would be a democratic wave the likes of which we haven't seen if this were to come to pass.
I think China would be willing to deal with the effects far longer than the American populace would be. There would be a democratic wave the likes of which we haven't seen if this were to come to pass.
hydrophilic attack
Member
um maybe you are not serious but china never wanted trump to win
before the election newspapers connected to the chinese government made a point of making fun of trump and portraying him as a fool
ItWasMeantToBe19
Banned
"China doesn't want a war" analysis may be correct for the Party as a whole, but I am not certain that Xi would not welcome a war.
I could see Xi wanting to be chairman for life and thinking that a crisis like a U.S.-China war would allow that change to occur.
I could see Xi wanting to be chairman for life and thinking that a crisis like a U.S.-China war would allow that change to occur.
Smiles and Cries
Member
As I said, I think both countries would lose dramatically. China giving up trade with a nation in which it has a massive trade imbalance would hurt it (and the US too as it would spur inflation). The massive levels of US debt that China holds is a two edged sword. It's debatable who gets more leverage from that as in many ways it links the economic fates of both nations and means that China causing the US economy to crater would be ruining a massive investment of their own.
I suspect, and hope, that the machinery of government will hep to temper Trump's random and antagonistic approach to foreign policy via Twitter, but given how much of an evil/stupid/thin skinned narcissist he is it's hard to say. I knew that he would be a disaster, but he's off to an even worse start than I would have thought and he's still a week away from taking office. Shame on the voters that put that clown in office.
TestOfTide
Banned
I wouldn't underestimate China. There are two areas where they are easily matching the US:
- manufacturing, due to their lack of worker rights
- tech innovation, due to not letting themselves be constrained by the patent system.
I'm not sure if the first point you made was directed at me, but I'm not at all excited about the prospects of this. It would be disastrous for both nations and would hurt other countries as well.
In terms of the second part - yes, I agree that if Trump antagonized China for no good reason and it led to a recession or depression then the Democrats would sweep into power in 2020 (2018 is massively stacked against them so even if Trump is terrible it's unlikely that the Democrats gain much ground that year).
After Tienanmen Square the government's calculus on civil unrest was that if they could consistently grow the economy each year then they could keep people content enough to prevent revolution. It's been a long time, so perhaps that's no longer the case, but there is certainly evidence that the government is very focused on growth (whether real or fake in terms of building projects that are unlikely to ever be used or just fudging books).
ItWasMeantToBe19
Banned
Hmm?
http://time.com/4565891/donald-trump-china-foreign-policy/
There were definitely some who were excited and pleased.
Chaos2Frozen
Member
They're getting pretty jumpy because of Trump running his mouth, and the people who don't know any better supports him thinking it's good for Taiwan.
Our vehicles probably don't matter in the Long run, China wants more than anything for us to swear allegiance to them or something. I don't know if it's the right move but I commend our leaders for not falling in line or at least not antagonize them further.
Yeah this is an awful position we're in. I obviously don't want sanctions against us.. But what the fuck do you expect to happen? US is only powerful because of the actions of past presidents (and other great americans for sure), it's not de facto the best/greatest/whatever country in the world. Trump I think honestly doesnt understand that, and doesn't realize other countries can fuck with us.
Or, he's a Russian puppet and he already knows that/doesn't care. I don't fucking know. We're in for a ride and not a fun one.
chillybright
Banned
Where did this narrative come from?
They are each other's largest natural geopolitical rival. While they weren't antagonistic towards one another in the early 2000's they were wary. That wariness has never gone away even when the US decided to antagonize both of them for some reason. Russia has relied on China as its one big ally for the last few years, but they're resolutely the junior partner in that relationship and I don't think Putin likes being forced in that kind of position.
Probably projecting the Russian onto China. While China wasn't all that fond of Clinton, I think that they believed that she would be far more stable, and therefore a better President for them.
Subpar Spatula
Banned
My money's on China because the US would still be held to certain standards while China dgaf. Military might means nothing now when it's proven you can manipulate elections to a degree by just spamming the Internet with lies.
For me the biggest question with regards to China is how much the "100 years of humiliation" is going to play a role in the national psyche with regards to how the government elects to handle this.
For decades they've been saying that they remember the shame of being forced to negotiate with the British in the 19th century and they've sworn they're never going to let it happen again. If they roll over to America, then it's going to be a huge blow to their national identity. I don't know whether they're willing to accept that.
For decades they've been saying that they remember the shame of being forced to negotiate with the British in the 19th century and they've sworn they're never going to let it happen again. If they roll over to America, then it's going to be a huge blow to their national identity. I don't know whether they're willing to accept that.
Despite their bluster, China is most likely to be the steadiest nation in terms of international leadership for the next few years. They are enjoying relatively good times while the US is in chaos in terms of politics and foreign policy and Russia is fighting to look like a super power again.
You're thinking about this incorrectly.
What Trump's rhetoric does is challenge China's international reputation and authority in its sphere of power. China wouldn't be acting to destroy its international reputation, it would acting to maintain it.
It is weird how myopic people are when it comes to foreign relations.
thehypocrite
Member
Lol. Trump doesn't care about Taiwan, time will reveal all of this.
Anti Secession Law of 2005
Or I guess China could say never mind we didn't mean it, congrats on the independence.
Or I guess China could say never mind we didn't mean it, congrats on the independence.
Taiwan's already a de facto independent, democratic state with freedom of the press and freedom of speech. The only thing it's lacking is in the formal international recognition of its practical status.
By inciting conflict with China and pushing for a formal recognition of independence, Trump would be directly endangering the democratic freedoms that Taiwanese people already have on a day to day basis.
By inciting conflict with China and pushing for a formal recognition of independence, Trump would be directly endangering the democratic freedoms that Taiwanese people already have on a day to day basis.
VendettaRed07
Member
BREAKING: China announces 400lb basement dwelling cyber hacking task force to take down Trump
20cent
Banned
How does a country (China) manufacturing a (Japanese) product can force another country (USA) to raise/create importation tax or restrict importation exactly?
Trump threatening democratic freedoms? Shocked.
Ether_Snake
å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®
The US sells weapons to Taiwan because it's a great way to make money, not because they would defend Taiwan if China made a move, which the US won't do.
chillybright
Banned
Yep. I don't get those "This is what you wanted China!". If anything China always has been treating US as a whole entity, regardless of incumbent party in the US. They were indifferent to the election until Trump started making outrageous claims against China and contacting Taiwan.
Also I believe the whole "China China China" narrative Trump has been pushing is to misdirect all the attention away from Russia. You need to look no further than his last press release. Every single time when he was asked about his ties with Russia and hacking he immediately goes "everyone is hacking us! China! China! Everyone worry about China!"
It is painfully blatant.
Knuckle Sandwich
Member
woops. wrong show.
It is incredible the extent to which all major countries manipulate their populations with hate against other major countries. China riles up the populace against Japan and the US, the US riles up the populace against China, Russia and Mexico. Russia riles their population against the US and the Ukraine.
It's transparent to those that pay attention, but since most people don't it's incredibly effective.
How About No
Member
Combined weight or each?
Silver lining is Trump gets voted out for being a total fucking idiot and destroying the economy in less than 4 years. It took Bush at least 8.
Ether_Snake
å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®
Trump's team want to lure China into taking actions that will make it less attractive to foreign investments, and fuel outflows of cash. They don't want to put tariffs on China; only later for the sake of adding fuel to the fire, but that's not at all what they want to do early on as it is unnecessary and overplays their hand.
They want companies to see China as an unsafe place to invest, which would lead them back to the US for the short-term. They will do whatever they can to goad China into a reaction to draw out investments. It's all provocation and China will either fall for it, in which case it will be difficult to control their own public's reaction, and difficult to stem cash outflows that would surge among its most fortunate, or else let it fly and try to contain its own population's backlash against the government for not reacting and making sure they don't do to US companies what they did to Japan's last time. It's a trap that will be difficult for China to avoid.
They want companies to see China as an unsafe place to invest, which would lead them back to the US for the short-term. They will do whatever they can to goad China into a reaction to draw out investments. It's all provocation and China will either fall for it, in which case it will be difficult to control their own public's reaction, and difficult to stem cash outflows that would surge among its most fortunate, or else let it fly and try to contain its own population's backlash against the government for not reacting and making sure they don't do to US companies what they did to Japan's last time. It's a trap that will be difficult for China to avoid.
Neither is really much of an option. China needs to talk enough about Trump to counter his rhetoric somewhat, and play a relatively even keel diplomatically otherwise. The key is to look better than Trump so that they look like the adult in the room. And it shouldn't be very hard to look an awful lot better than Trump does.
You're presuming that Trump is giving any thought to this kind of rhetoric. Like most of his speeches, he's actually disinterested in the subject at hand and just rambles without giving it any real thought. That's the kind of thing his fans like so it's been what he's been sticking with.
Chaos2Frozen
Member
Pretty much everyone except Russia, North Korea and Philippines preferred Clinton over Trump.
Chuck Norris
Banned
Honestly I dislike Trump immensely
But China is a paper tiger next to the USA if things got "serious"
But China is a paper tiger next to the USA if things got "serious"
Chaos2Frozen
Member
Who do you think is going to suffer to most? China is not the only country in that region.
kiunchbb
www.dictionary.com
China and US had been getting rich from each other from trades and slowly making the world better with deals. We really don't want to lose all that just to show them we are better.
China might be a bully, but at least they stable Asia, a lot better than US or Russia ever will, just look at what the we done to the middle east.
Agreed. That article has people discussing the pros and cons of Trump and areas in which he'll be less contentious with China, but that is after the fact and does not really mean that they were hoping for him to win. China, like most rational countries, likes predictability and stability and Trump is anything but stable for international norms.
Unlike US, China does not try to change a country's ways. For example the TPP requires big changes in governance and country's laws, while China's RCEP is limited to trade.
Mr. Pointy
Member
Begun, the Trade Wars have.
gamechanger87
Member
Correct. It's the reason that the local Chinese governments have been forging numbers for years and the overall government has turned a blind eye to it.
Unemployment or a slow down in growth makes the population skeptical of the rights they give up.
A lot of the continuing growth story in China is funded with unsustainable debt and relies on fudged numbers. For example, it was just revealed that the province of Liaoning fabricated numbers to the tune of 20% from 2011 - 2014 at a minimum.
http://rmrbimg2.people.cn/html/items/wap-share-rmrb/#/index/home/3/normal/detail/1228730611879463_normal_1228730611879463/normal
Mr. Poolman
Member
You guys are in for a surprise.
If things escalate to a military level (they won't), this would be more on the lines of Vietnam than Irak.
I don't see how that would be the case. I can't imagine the US would involve ground troops outside of perhaps South Korea if China supported a North Korean attack of the South. It would be an Air Force/Navy engagement, not an occupation.
I think the prospect of an actual war with China in the next few years is incredibly remote. As much as both sides would lose in a trade war it would be that much worse in an actual war.
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