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China 'shocked' by US actions in trade dispute, fresh tariffs to be imposed in September 2018 on products worth $200 billion

China has wayyyy more to lose than the US, China would be losing out on 460B vs US losing 115B. How does america not have all the leverage in these disputes.

Yeah, that's what Trump meant when he said trade wars are easy to win. We have the leverage. Any tariffs or trade disputes that reduce the amount of trade between the US and China, hurts China a lot more than it hurts the US. Our economy is more resilient.
 

Arkage

Banned
He is currently renegotiating NAFTA. Also I know he's renegotiating our trade deal with S. Korea. And I read on his visit to London this week, Theresa May is pushing for the US and UK to quickly forge a new bilateral free trade agreement. So he's very much kept his promise. Tariffs aren't trade deals, obviously. But he never hid the fact that he intended to use them where appropriate. Soy beans farmers might get hurt, but American manufacturers haven't been this optimistic in many decades. China was dumping subsized steel on the market. He's looking out for the rust state voters that elected him.

So I'll ask you, if you're against tariffs, do you support the status quo ? We should just live with the massive trade imbalance between the US and China ? I think it's indefensible.

Manufacturing is not the future of American prosperity, and hasn't been for decades. The sooner steel workers or coal miners can get trained in jobs that aren't shit, the better. Personal aside: my dad works in a foundry and the conditions are fucking horrible for everyone there except the bosses who sit in air conditioned rooms all day breathing clean air and not losing their arms in machinery.

Also, saying "he's in talks for deals" means literally jack and shit as far as him "keeping promises." All he did is blow up current agreements and come off as incredibly petty to the countries who he now has to woo into these so-called amazing deals. I'll believe it when I see it.

As far as your false dichotomy of "tariffs or trade imbalance" I'll take the trade imbalance, as it's clear that if we don't import from China a large swath of products will get dramatically more expensive for US consumers. Mix that with record levels of income inequality and you get low consumer confidence and a likely recession. And because China already owns substantial American debt they could truly screw over our economy in more ways than one if Trump gets pissy enough at them by completely jeopardizing our interest rates. To be clear: China's economy can exist just fine without us. Our economy can't sustain itself without them in part due to our massive economic dependence upon cheap Chinese electronics manufacturing. There are also plenty of financial articles pointing out that the trade war is being over exaggerated in the first place.. https://www.bloomberg.com/view/arti...hina-trade-deficit-is-smaller-than-it-appears
 
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Manufacturers are NOT happy with Trump, very few are happy like whirlpool.

Manufacturers are begging for this situation to go back to normal, just ask General Electric.
 
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Manufacturers are NOT happy with Trump, very few are happy like whirlpool.

Manufacturers are begging for this situation to go back to normal, just ask General Electric.

Manufacturers’ optimism has risen to unprecedented heights amid the legislative progress made on tax reform, according to the results of the Manufactures' Outlook Survey for the fourth quarter of 2017.

The study, conducted by The National Association of Manufacturers (NAM), found that 94.6% of respondents say they are positive about their own company’s outlook.

This quarter’s optimism level is the highest in the survey’s 20-year history.


http://www.industryweek.com/leadership/us-manufacturers-are-really-optimistic-says-nam
 
Dec 2017, cites taxes.

It does not capture their opinion on tariffs. Think about all of the products that use steel, their shit just got more expensive. Why would a manufacturer who sources steel as a raw material be happy? Think about that. Why would international companies be happy? Think about it.
 
And because China already owns substantial American debt they could truly screw over our economy in more ways than one if Trump gets pissy enough at them by completely jeopardizing our interest rates. To be clear: China's economy can exist just fine without us. Our economy can't sustain itself without them

China owns less than 10% of our debt.

The highlighted comment is ridiculous.

In your view, has Trump done anything good since taking office ?
 
Dec 2017, cites taxes.

It does not capture their opinion on tariffs. Think about all of the products that use steel, their shit just got more expensive. Why would a manufacturer who sources steel as a raw material be happy? Think about that. Why would international companies be happy? Think about it.


What is your source then ? You didn't even post one.

Ask GM ? The tariff increased the cost of a new car by a few hundreds dollars. You're engaging in hyperbole.

2018 Second Quarter Manufacturers' Outlook Survey

With the enactment of tax reform, manufacturers promised to hire more workers, create more jobs and put more money in the pockets of manufacturing workers. Now as we mark the six-month anniversary of the enactment, it is clear that manufacturers are keeping their promise. According to the latest Manufacturers’ Outlook Survey, an astounding 95.1 percent of manufacturers registered a positive outlook for their company, the highest level recorded in the survey’s 20-year history. Additionally, expected growth for investments, hiring and wages is reaching historic highs.


http://www.nam.org/outlook/

So the most recent manufacturer's outlook survey is even more positive than the "old" 6 month one I posted before. Are you embarrassed yet ?


 
What is your source then ? You didn't even post one.

Ask GM ? The tariff increased the cost of a new car by a few hundreds dollars. You're engaging in hyperbole.

2018 Second Quarter Manufacturers' Outlook Survey

With the enactment of tax reform, manufacturers promised to hire more workers, create more jobs and put more money in the pockets of manufacturing workers. Now as we mark the six-month anniversary of the enactment, it is clear that manufacturers are keeping their promise. According to the latest Manufacturers’ Outlook Survey, an astounding 95.1 percent of manufacturers registered a positive outlook for their company, the highest level recorded in the survey’s 20-year history. Additionally, expected growth for investments, hiring and wages is reaching historic highs.

http://www.nam.org/outlook/

So the most recent manufacturer's outlook survey is even more positive than the "old" 6 month one I posted before. Are you embarrassed yet ?

Do your research for fucks sakes, and stop citing tax reform. Cite TARIFFS. Btw I meant GM not GE.

With current new-vehicle prices averaging about $32,000 after discounts are factored in, a 25 percent tariff likely would increase prices by about $4,000 to $5,000 per vehicle, Schuster said.

That estimate assumes automakers pass about half of the cost along to customers and absorb the rest.

-----

So the high brand valuestream will subsidize the cheap low margin brands via taking less profits and making stronger earners pay more. Thank you for the charity GM, for not reducing demand for the cheaper customer base. This is really important to do, and is an example of how regulations can alter business plans.

https://money.cnn.com/2018/06/29/news/companies/gauto-tariffm-car-prices-/index.html

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.marketwatch.com/amp/story/guid/C4A3D53A-788E-11E8-BA30-9B59BD04D6D6

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.usatoday.com/amp/745342002
 
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Do your research for fucks sakes, and stop citing tax reform. Cite TARIFFS. Btw I meant GM not GE.

You're the person making wild claims that "Manufacturers are NOT happy with Trump ".

I posted hard evidence that your assertion is wrong. You nitpicked the age of the source, and I gave an even better one.


ssoliate said:
Think about all of the products that use steel, their shit just got more expensive. Why would a manufacturer who sources steel as a raw material be happy? Think about that. Why would international companies be happy?

I'm talking about the increased domestic automobile production costs due to the 25% steel tariff. The WSJ estimated it will increase the cost of a new car by $300. Big Whoop. You act like the sky is falling. For most other consumer goods, the cost will be negligible.

Why would international companies be happy ? I don't care if Whirlpool doesn't like the tariff Trump put on washing machines. I guess they will have to stop outsourcing to Mexico. If we tax their imports, and if we're the largest consumer market for their product, it no longer makes business sense to move out of the US does it ?

With current new-vehicle prices averaging about $32,000 after discounts are factored in, a 25 percent tariff likely would increase prices by about $4,000 to $5,000 per vehicle, Schuster said.

That estimate assumes automakers pass about half of the cost along to customers and absorb the rest.

Your money.cnn hyperlink doesn't even work. So I have no idea what point you're trying to make about 25% car tariffs.
You know we tax EU automobile imports at just 2.5%, and they tax our cars at 10% ? Would you defend that ?
 

Nobody_Important

“Aww, it’s so...average,” she said to him in a cold brick of passion
Trump: WE HAVE THE BEST ECONOMY IS AGES THANKS TO ME!! ALL ME!!! NO HELP!


Also Trump: Hey you guys wanna see me destroy the economy?
 

Arkage

Banned
China owns less than 10% of our debt.

The highlighted comment is ridiculous.

In your view, has Trump done anything good since taking office ?

Another fun statistic? China amounts to less than 4% of our steel imports. Despite this being his supposed motivations for the tariffs to save the rust belt. Pushing up the price of Chinese steel when it represents less than 4% of the US steel import market is a ludicrous way to try to reshape the market dynamics of the US steel industry.

Also, my highlighted comment is confirmed by these articles:

http://www.aei.org/publication/dang...creasingly-beholden-to-imported-raw-material/
https://www.forbes.com/sites/judecl...oses-u-s-mineral-import-problem/#f6eb7a321044
https://piie.com/blogs/trade-investment-policy-watch/how-dependent-are-us-consumers-imports-china
http://theconversation.com/trumps-6...ll-create-more-problems-than-they-solve-93897

China’s leverage on the global market for rare earth minerals has unnerved many of its neighbors and trading partners: American manufacturers — including many in Michigan — are understandably worried about supply disruptions like the one in 2007 when China halted shipments of rare earth metals to a U.S. petroleum refining company for so long that it led to concerns that the cutoff might cause a nationwide gasoline shortage.

And our industries pay a steep price for China’s near monopoly position on many critical resources. Costs soared two years ago after China reduced its export quotas for the minerals. For example, the price of lanthanium oxide, a mineral used in refining petroleum, rose from $5 per kilogram in early 2010 to $35 per kilogram by mid-year and $140 per kilogram in June 2011. Such market power, if not addressed soon and effectively, could harm the U.S. economy and national security.

But China is less dependent on U.S. trade now than it was a decade ago, making its economy resilient to these sorts of punitive measures. The U.S. accounted for 18.4 percent of Chinese exports in 2016, down from 21 percent in 2006.

Similarly, the trade deficit is unlikely to be resolved through higher tariffs. The primary cause of the persistent trade deficit – $566 billion in 2017 – is an imbalance between savings and investment in the U.S. economy..... Tariffs will not change this reality.

On Trump doing anything "good," I'm glad he has done more push back against Islamic extremism than Hillary ever would, though creating a travel ban against countries where the 9/11 hijackers didn't even come from is some dumb political posturing. I'm also fine with building a wall or at least renovating it, and I'm fine with increasing border security, but his moves on DACA and now asylum seekers is, again, dumbshit political posturing. I'm glad he gave a small taxcut to the middle class, but I'm upset that huge tax cuts went to the wealthy while seemingly not giving a shit about the giant deficit it will create, not to mention the acceleration of income inequality. I also appreciate his stronger stance on Syria.

But make no mistake. He's still an admitted molester of women, was accused by 16 of them, but knows he's too rich to suffer the consequences of his actions. He bragged about shooting people in the street and not losing any voters. He spouted racist birther conspiracies for years because it fed his racist fanbase. Bald-faced lying like "THE BIGGEST CROWD EVER." He clearly panders to the worst natures of his electorate in order to grow his cult-of-personality. The good things he has done could've been done by any of the Republican candidates who weren't also woman-molesting, racist, lying egomaniacs. There was only one of those running in the Republican primary, and now he's President because of his singularly unique platform of "fuck PC liberals, Obama was born in Kenya, LOCK HER UP!"
 
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What is your source then ? You didn't even post one.

Ask GM ? The tariff increased the cost of a new car by a few hundreds dollars. You're engaging in hyperbole.

2018 Second Quarter Manufacturers' Outlook Survey

With the enactment of tax reform, manufacturers promised to hire more workers, create more jobs and put more money in the pockets of manufacturing workers. Now as we mark the six-month anniversary of the enactment, it is clear that manufacturers are keeping their promise. According to the latest Manufacturers’ Outlook Survey, an astounding 95.1 percent of manufacturers registered a positive outlook for their company, the highest level recorded in the survey’s 20-year history. Additionally, expected growth for investments, hiring and wages is reaching historic highs.

http://www.nam.org/outlook/

So the most recent manufacturer's outlook survey is even more positive than the "old" 6 month one I posted before. Are you embarrassed yet ?


For the third straight survey, the inability to attract and retain a quality workforce was the top business challenge for manufacturers, cited by 76.7 percent of respondents (Figure 4). With robust job growth and an encouraging economic outlook, it has become increasingly difficult to find talent— something echoed in the sample comments.

The second major business concern was the rising cost of raw materials (65.3 percent), up from the third top concern in the prior survey. This finding is consistent with accelerating input costs overall in other measures, including the producer price index and other sentiment surveys.

The third greatest business challenge concerned rising health care costs (65.3 percent), with respondents anticipating that health insurance premiums will increase 7.6 percent over the next 12 months. More than 74 percent of manufacturers expect their premiums to increase by at least 5 percent on average next year. At the same time, roughly three in ten of those completing the survey expect their premiums to rise by at least 10 percent. Small and medium-sized manufacturers predict 8.3 percent growth in health care costs on average over the next 12 months, with large firms seeing 6.4 percent growth.

I wonder if this has anything to do with tax cuts aimed at money, instead of using it for infrastructure, training, and healthcare.

Companies can move out of the US and manufacture anywhere to avoid tariffs. see: Harley Davidson/BMW/Tesla
 
You're the person making wild claims that "Manufacturers are NOT happy with Trump ".

I posted hard evidence that your assertion is wrong. You nitpicked the age of the source, and I gave an even better one.




I'm talking about the increased domestic automobile production costs due to the 25% steel tariff. The WSJ estimated it will increase the cost of a new car by $300. Big Whoop. You act like the sky is falling. For most other consumer goods, the cost will be negligible.

Why would international companies be happy ? I don't care if Whirlpool doesn't like the tariff Trump put on washing machines. I guess they will have to stop outsourcing to Mexico. If we tax their imports, and if we're the largest consumer market for their product, it no longer makes business sense to move out of the US does it ?



Your money.cnn hyperlink doesn't even work. So I have no idea what point you're trying to make about 25% car tariffs.
You know we tax EU automobile imports at just 2.5%, and they tax our cars at 10% ? Would you defend that ?

My point about mfg's not being happy was concerning the tariffs, not taxes.

WSJ #''s are from March, mine are from July, and from different analysis. I already covered in another topic citing more sources, but the jist is that a it's a few thousands more, with the elements that I talked about being relevant.

Whirlpool likes the tariffs, their competitors don't. Again, research.

I don't pay attention to EU tariffs, because they aren't threatening 200billion+ worth of tariffs. But getting rid/reducing the 10% tariff would be fine, even though our cars just aren't popular there and price isn't why. But we love their shit and the lower tariff increases our FDI for that sector, unlike them.

No, it will always make sense to have mfg plants outside of the U.S., not just for costs reasons domestically, but especially with automation and the shortening of supply chains that will come with it, per market. Until then we'll pay for mfg here with higher prices, and also less foreign investment in our nation. All of that has consequences too.

In the long term, trade wars slow economic growth. They create more layoffs, not fewer, as foreign countries retaliate. The 12 million U.S. workers who owe their jobs to exports could get laid off.

Consultant Oxford Economics predicted the trade war could cost the global economy $800 billion in reduced trade. That could slow growth by 0.4 percent. It's occurring at the same time that oil prices and interest rates are rising.

Over time, trade wars weaken the protected domestic industry. Without foreign competition, companies within the industry don't need to innovate. Eventually, the local product would decline in quality compared to foreign-made goods.
 
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China owns less than 10% of our debt.

The highlighted comment is ridiculous.

In your view, has Trump done anything good since taking office ?

It's not only that they own a small %. For some reason people think China is the US's banker.

They have it backwards. China has an account at the Federal Reserve.

The US's institutions are the source of all the dollars China has. So I don't know why people think China bankrolls the US.
 

i_am_ben

running_here_and_there
These tariffs would work a lot better if Trump worked more closely with the EU.

The EU isn't a big fan of China's trade practices, and could be very helpful. Instead, Trump is off smearing and trashing America's natural allies.
 

To tell you the truth people expected sanity to prevail. China was willing to settle, but IP theft is too juicy for them to let go. And now its out of control, but at the same time there's no good time to do such a strategy as now. But we're hoping that it's all short-short term stuff, and while there has been collateral damage already, the market is blazing. Unfortunately it may actually be a serious thing, and it might have to be seriously disrupted.
 
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To tell you the truth people expected sanity to prevail. China was willing to settle, but IP theft is too juicy for them to let go. And now its out of control, but at the same time there's no good time to do such a strategy as now. But we're hoping that it's all short-short term stuff, and while there has been collateral damage already, the market is blazing. Unfortunately it may actually be a serious thing, and it might have to be seriously disrupted.

If sanity prevailed Pres. Trump would have had no reason to run. You don't need to MAGA if people were doing a great job and putting America where it wants to be.

I don't think most investors are hoping short-term stuff. Most models don't support the doom and gloom critics are spewing. History is being misrepresented wrt the macro impact of tariffs. Common sense should also tell you why an increase in the tariff rate won't cause a severe recession in a $20 trillion economy structured like the US. The story some people are telling just doesn't add up.

In the end, Trump is just showing the world it doesn't have to be the way it is if people don't want it to be. Love him or hate him. Maybe people like globalization as it's currently designed and nothing changes. Maybe they want to break the whole thing up. Maybe they want to change things so the poor get a bigger slice of the pie. You have to think of a world outside the box.
 
If sanity prevailed Pres. Trump would have had no reason to run. You don't need to MAGA if people were doing a great job and putting America where it wants to be.

I don't think most investors are hoping short-term stuff. Most models don't support the doom and gloom critics are spewing. History is being misrepresented wrt the macro impact of tariffs. Common sense should also tell you why an increase in the tariff rate won't cause a severe recession in a $20 trillion economy structured like the US. The story some people are telling just doesn't add up.

In the end, Trump is just showing the world it doesn't have to be the way it is if people don't want it to be. Love him or hate him. Maybe people like globalization as it's currently designed and nothing changes. Maybe they want to break the whole thing up. Maybe they want to change things so the poor get a bigger slice of the pie. You have to think of a world outside the box.

Ugh, we're not talking about sinking the economy impact, we're talking about doing more bad than good, that there wil be more losers than winners. It's not going to lead to new levels of prosperity where there will be so many jobs here that people will job hop into the middleclass and beyond. It leads to job losses and higher prices. Also it goes to show you just how important services are.

Everything is the short-game. I have no idea what you are talking about in that third paragraph.
 
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waxer

Member
Lol USA USA USA
Not like they have shitty rules for free trade like allowing their nuclear armed vessels to use your ports even though your country is nuclear free.
 
Ugh, we're not talking about sinking the economy impact, we're talking about doing more bad than good, that there wil be more losers than winners. It's not going to lead to new levels of prosperity where there will be so many jobs here that people will job hop into the middleclass and beyond. It leads to job losses and higher prices. Also it goes to show you just how important services are.

Everything is the short-game. I have no idea what you are talking about in that third paragraph.

Why do you believe net it will do more bad then good?

Current law is rigged against the little man and disproportionately benefits the affluent. The US is protecting certain groups while hanging others out to dry. It doesn't have to be this way.

The outcome that you see today didn't just fall out of the sky. The winners and losers of the current paradigm isn't a natural event outside of your control. It's the cumulative effect of man-made policy decisions.

In the third paragraph, I'm pointing out that Trump is saying it doesn't have to be this way. If you support him, then he can MAGA. And the reason why he can offer that rhetorical alternative is because Americans aren't living in the golden age of capitalism. They're in bad shape where innovation is slowing, inequality is growing, and the rate of growth is disappointing compared to your recent past. If things were fantastic, then Trump would have no incentive to throw his hat in the ring.
 
Why do you believe net it will do more bad then good?

Current law is rigged against the little man and disproportionately benefits the affluent. The US is protecting certain groups while hanging others out to dry. It doesn't have to be this way.

The outcome that you see today didn't just fall out of the sky. The winners and losers of the current paradigm isn't a natural event outside of your control. It's the cumulative effect of man-made policy decisions.

In the third paragraph, I'm pointing out that Trump is saying it doesn't have to be this way. If you support him, then he can MAGA. And the reason why he can offer that rhetorical alternative is because Americans aren't living in the golden age of capitalism. They're in bad shape where innovation is slowing, inequality is growing, and the rate of growth is disappointing compared to your recent past. If things were fantastic, then Trump would have no incentive to throw his hat in the ring.

Point 1. Net job losses, irrelevant winners.
Point 2. Agreed.
Point 3. Trump has only widened inequality in actuality and conceptually. People should be talking to Bernie Sanders.
 
Point 1. Net job losses, irrelevant winners.
Point 2. Agreed.
Point 3. Trump has only widened inequality in actuality and conceptually. People should be talking to Bernie Sanders.

Why would you have net job losses?

At worst, Pres. Trump's team causes a disruptive event that leads to worker displacement short-term. Net the same jobs won't be in the same places. That's what was expected from globalization over time which was similarly disruptive. Some people think the composition of jobs changed. Some people think the US lost hundreds of thousands of jobs. The net change shouldn't deviate significantly from 0 according to the models.

Of course we've seen job destruction can happen at a rate faster than job creation and that matters. The American economist Stiglitz demonstrated that effect of trade liberalization, but you're suppose to compensate people with money and adjustment assistance if that's the case. Or maybe nowadays that job guarantee the democratic socialists are talking about will take care of the losers. I don't see why the winners wouldn't matter in a shift to fair trade. Or how Bernie Sanders would avoid displacement in his vision of fair trade?

In terms of point 3, Trump's tax cut was poor bang for buck, but it's better than the tax increases and spending cuts the other side wants to do. I don't see why Americans wouldn't want to keep more money in their pockets when inflation is so low. There's no good reason for the gov't to be taking more money away from people any time soon. Is using those tax benefits for stock buybacks instead of wage gains or investment the best thing big business could do? No, but if you gave it to the poor and middle class they might've just saved it or paid down debt with it. In the end a tax cut is not going to set the US economy on fire, but it's better than gutting welfare or taxing folks more.
 
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The tax cuts super overwhelmingly favored the rich, widening wealth inequality. The poor and middle should have gotten more than they did, and to balance, the rich significantly less than they did. If the middle class tax cuts expire, so should the rich. There's a lot more to balk about in that arena.

What do you think would the potential financial benefits would be to the middle and poor classes if we had universal health care?
 
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The tax cuts super overwhelmingly favored the rich, widening wealth inequality. The poor and middle should have gotten more than they did

The rich pay the most taxes anyways. They knocked like 1% off the highest bracket. The poor should have gotten more ? They're already paying almost no federal income taxes. How can they pay less when they're already at zero tax liability ? They doubled the standard deduction. That helps a lot of working class people. It's going to help me. Pelosi and Bernie Sanders want to raise taxes. Not just on rich, but on everyone. F that.
 

NickFire

Member
The poor and middle should have gotten more than they did, and to balance, the rich significantly less than they did.

I agree with that statement 100%. Now if only there had been a minority party who chose to campaign / push really hard for better and actually tangible tax breaks for the middle class during the fall of 2017, perhaps we would have gotten a much better tax break than we did. But NOPE, the minority party chose to just reeeeeesist instead, and tried to convince me that I am better off with no extra money in my pocket than what I got. Sorry, but that is failed politics. You offer me a better deal and you get my interests. You offer me no deal but promise to care in the future, well, I will vote for the guy giving me a little every time over the guy giving me nothing.
 
I think the benefits of universal health care would be a big boon to the US because health care costs are killing business way more than taxes. And it lifts a big burden off the shoulders of the private sector. They could spend time and resources focusing on other things if your health care system wasn't ruining so many lives and costing so much $$$. Americans pay more for less.

Also, I think the best way to reduce inequality is to have tax cuts, spending programs, trade deals, and other laws tipped in favor of the poor i.e. the little man. Raising taxes on me doesn't put food on your table or pay your bills. Letting tax cuts expire doesn't grow your economy. It'll slow it down. That's why even Obama said no and extended most of the Bush tax cuts. They do work some.

Putting poor people first is what's going to get it done. Pre-distribution rather than redistribution is the way forward. And the economy overall will be better off if poor people, labor, the forgotten men and women of the US, and so on are the top priority. When the rich, investors, professionals, and so on are the top priority and focus of the US gov't...I mean the results don't lie. America is not delivering on it's promise. Americans are not living in a capitalist utopia where there's so much wealth and innovation that people are overjoyed. That's why Trump had to run to MAGA. He had to shake things up for the folks who are being left behind.
 
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