Hidden One
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Alright I'm legitimately scared now 😰😰😰😰
CNN/ORC Poll: Trump 44%, Clinton 39%, Johnson 9%, Stein 3%
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boiled goose
good with gravy
It is a fact that income inequality has widened under Obama. The secret is that it would have been worse under a Republican.
The problem? Clinton represents the establishment and Trump the outsider. People are pissed at the government.
DontBeThatGuy
Member
He hasn't addressed anything, he's acknowledged fears and has played on them, when the reality is many of those jobs aren't coming back, and that yes, a much easier and affordable path to higher education is the future, and the only future. These people should want that for their children and their children's children. It would be nice if that future had healthier people that didn't have a life crisis about their medical bills too, which he most certainly will not be addressing with the plan he laid out. It's regressive, not forward-thinking at all.
He says he's for the people, but how many people has he defrauded in some way? How many taxes avoided? How many lies has he told, how many conspiracy theories, about Climate Change, about vaccines, about everything? What a guy. He's for the people, but what about minimum wage?
Their anxieties on jobs may be real, but Donald Trump isn't and this whole thing goes much, much deeper than jobs, and the fact they're ignoring that or applauding it is some hot garbage in itself.
People are being swindled here, and that's depressing as hell.
It's not entirely untrue that wages have largely remained flat (and by flat I mean that even if they are increasing wages they aren't keeping pace with inflation) and that, without an increase in the minimum wage, this is unlikely to change. Healthcare costs have also skyrocketed in spite of the trying to ensure everyone has healthcare, but that's largely a result of the US healthcare system costing entirely too much relative to the rest of the world. We do need comprehensive healthcare reform and an increase in wages (preferably federally mandating an increase in the minimum wage that increases year-on-year rather than just a flat minimum wage increase).
So yes, it's great that we have less unemployment, but we need to fix our exceptionally flat wages.
Clockwork5
Member
Yes because any criticism of Hillary is seen as right wing propaganda in some circles.
phazedplasma
Member
Gary Johnson 9 points? LOL this poll is bogus guys.
The fact that people think this is ridiculous especially the part about Trump being the outsider when in fact he would be the establishment in the flesh as he's part of the 1%.
High Fry Frow
Member
Also should point out that the 5% unemployment is pretty misleading. It doesn't take into account people of retirement age who are still looking for work, woefully underemployed people & people who have just stopped looking.
This is a known issue on how a lot of the American public feels. To write it off is pure ignorance.
TheLaughingStock
Member
That's fine. This site has been cited by 538 themselves because they work in this space.
That's what happens when you have a year with two god awful candidates
Ragnar Blackmane
Member
All the people saying that Trump presidency simply won't happen, take a look at Brexit.
I'm glad you guys have electors (though I usually am not a huge fan of it) instead of the usual simple majority election, otherwise there'd be a massive threat that Trump could get away with a Brexit style 52% of the total votes. Still won't rule out Trump winning in the end, facist xenophopia works nowadays, you always have to consider non-voters, people voting some nobody instead of Hillary out of protest and people that vote Trump "to stick it to the system" (see Brexit again) and the possibility that the Wikileaks paper might considerably damage Hillary's campain.
I'm glad you guys have electors (though I usually am not a huge fan of it) instead of the usual simple majority election, otherwise there'd be a massive threat that Trump could get away with a Brexit style 52% of the total votes. Still won't rule out Trump winning in the end, facist xenophopia works nowadays, you always have to consider non-voters, people voting some nobody instead of Hillary out of protest and people that vote Trump "to stick it to the system" (see Brexit again) and the possibility that the Wikileaks paper might considerably damage Hillary's campain.
Inflation is non existent. The CPI has risen especially in certain sectors, and yes while wages have stagnated since 2000 we've also been through two recessions one of them the worst financial crisis since the great depression.
Also, healthcare costs have absolutely not "skyrocketed". They are increasing at a much slower rate than they were prior to the ACA being implemented.
As unemployment stays around where it is we will see an increase in wages. When unemployment hits 8% and 11% highs twice in a 16 year period you aren't gonna see a lot of wage growth because it is a employers market.
Clockwork5
Member
I don't necessarily disagree with your first point.
I would say the problem lies in Clinton's unwillingness to make speaking of this issue a priority of her campaign.
Fried Food
Banned
That NYT 'Is Trump Racist' thread would have me believe that 44% of people polled are racist. I'm sure the % will be less after the DNC.
Bam Bam Baklava
Member
Regardless, they are actually projecting a higher vote spread in favor of Clinton than 538 so if they did "odds of winning" numbers it would probably be lower for Trump than 538. They remain the place that gives him the best odds.
They aren't going to get shit from Trump. They are just too fucking happy to be told they are better than black people/mexicans/muslims/etc to actually care.
It is *not* misleading. It is a consistently tracked statistic, and if you are "looking for work" you count as unemployed regardless of your age.
Participation in the job market has dropped, but that is in no small part a function of baby boomers retiring. There is still the issue of people who have left the workforce because they can't find work, but that is not the majority of the percentage of people who have left the labor force.
The problem is that neoliberal solutions to end poverty largely aren't going to work, because no amount of trade deals will convince companies to invest in the United States in ways that generate meaningful jobs. Capital is being accumulated at a pretty high speed, and middle class Americans not lucky enough to get a boost are being pushed toward the bottom. It's reasonable to expect that most millennials will never be as wealthy as their parents, because they can't enjoy the same economic conditions as the Baby Boomers.
Americans will only become wealthier if action is taken to stop the accumulation of wealth and wrest control of our economy away from multinational corporations. But this is unthinkable in the American political climate.
Angelus Errare
Banned
Hasnt she spoken on stagnant wages hurting there middle aged list class quite a bit? That and she wants to increase minimum wage. But unfortunately Americans care more about corporations than their wages being low, which Republicans play up quite a bit. Hell you even had some Republican candidates talking about lowering minimum wage to give ppl more "leverage" and ppl eat it up 🙄
Ether_Snake
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We have had deflation and low inflation, of course wages would not increase much.
The value of labor will keep going down, whether due to outsourcing or automation. As long as costs go down or don't rise faster than wage growth it's not a big issue, you just need to make sure you have the proper services and safety net for all, and you won't get that with Trump.
Considering Hillary is running against a multi-billionaire, this issue should be in the bag for her.
The value of labor will keep going down, whether due to outsourcing or automation. As long as costs go down or don't rise faster than wage growth it's not a big issue, you just need to make sure you have the proper services and safety net for all, and you won't get that with Trump.
Considering Hillary is running against a multi-billionaire, this issue should be in the bag for her.
I disagree with the last part. I think the world and even in the US is starting to get angry at the effects of neoliberalism.
You aren't good at economics are you?
So we are going to take control away from multinational companies (how?) and then money will flow like wine to the middle class because of reasons?
How did that work out for Venezuela?
American wages will increase once the job market becomes an employers market. It is *starting* to get to that point, especially in certain sectors. Globalization is going to continue to erode the US manufacturing base for the next few decades and there is little anyone can do to stop that short of turning to protectionism.. but again I ask.
How did that work out for Venezuela or Brazil?
Globalization has happened, and it has far more to do with technological development (communications systems, transportation, etc.) than it does to do with policies. Free Trade deals are more a reaction to the ability to have a globally connected workforce at this point in time.
I was able to manage a team in 5 different countries from NYC without ever setting foot on an airplane. I currently work with clients and business partners for my company in ~15 different countries, and the only reason I ever travel is for relationship building, not necessity of conducting day to day business.
This is a genie that is never ever getting put back in the bottle and it's not a matter of policy, it's a matter of an increasingly interconnected world, and if you are truly progressive you should be really happy about rising standard of living in the developing world. Progressives that only care about wage growth and standard of living in their own country feel a lot like kicking the ladder out because America "got theirs"
TheLaughingStock
Member
Sorry if I wasn't clear. I'm referring to the econometric forecast portion of their component methods that claims Trump will win. The site is also run by political scientists as a side note.
This still effectively leads to a dollar getting you less than it did ten years ago. But you are right, it is not inflation in the traditional sense.
Yes, it is not skyrocketing, I misspoke there, apologies. But as you said, it's increasing and that's a significant concern for a lot of people when they feel like their dollar isn't going as far.
So our abysmal labor force participation rate which is the lowest it's been in decades is primarily a result of baby boomers retiring? Anyone try getting a good job lately not in a stem field.....it's absolutely brutal.
Yes.
And unemployment is at 5%. There are jobs available. It depends on where you live and what field you are in, as an employment rate nationally is a poor predictor of an individual income which is going to have regional, expertise and field dependency.
That said, only 5% of people actively seeking jobs are unable to find work. So, on balance we are at what is generally considered "full employment". Though, there is a caveot of a lot of workers not being happy with hours or wages which obviously means we aren't in mid 1990s "full employment", but we're also coming off the back of two recessions so that's not unexpected.
cpp_is_king
Member
Do people not know about post convention bump? This poll means nothing
BLACK AMERICAN PSYCHO
Junior Member
You must have missed the last 5 centuries folk.
Look, most of us do get this. But you're failing to talk to the people who these issues directly affect.
The rust belt voter who lost his job when the factory became a maquiladora in Mexico doesn't care about globalization or world wide standards of progress.
There are less and less people in Western countries who are benefitting as a result of globalization. Gains are increasing for the top 1% while the rest have stagnant wages and increased insurance and other costs.
Your message has to reach those people, not GAF. And frankly, it's a very difficult sale to close because it deals with abstract notions as compared to economic realities faced in day-to-day life.
A rust belt voter isn't going to care that his shipped off job is providing 20 Asian people work when he can't get any
It is worth mentioning that those recessions are a result of some of the worst behavior from Wall Street we've ever seen in modern history (whom Republicans in general continue to attempt to deregulate). I do believe that crowdfunding has become a boon to new businesses to some degree though, and am happy to see growth on that front.
Not gonna lie, I might vote for Donald trump just to see what actually would happen if he won, I'm super curious. I also really want to see the reaction from younger people and how crazy they will get lol. I'm sure he will win with or without my vote though regardless though. I'm pretty sure nothing major will change if either candidate won, I just find ones win more amusing than the other.
Lord Frieza
Member
I kind of wonder if we need a thread to explain, in detail, why the Brexit vote and this are not similar at all outside the superficial details. Would it matter, I wonder? Because people clearly don't seem to listen in individual threads that the two situations are not comparable. It's borderline infuriating to see people continue bringing up the comparison despite the fact that I have seen explained multiple times across multiple threads that it not an apt comparison to make.
Bounceounce
Member
No, don't go to Gaf for this question, and don't go to Reddit for this question.
You're just going to get two extremes painting the other side as irrational.
(Not that there aren't cases where that's legitimate)
Ragnar Blackmane
Member
Completely agree with what Stooge wrote, but trembli is right on point here. The general electorship doesn't care about complicated and abstract economic concepts, they want easy messages and easy answers. Just look at Brexit, "kick out foreigners and EU taking all our money, get all that money back" responded with more people than the hard economic forecasts and numbers and facts. If people are unhappy with their situation they won't care if things could turn out alot worse or if status quo is just how it is and irreversible. They want their money (without giving two fucks how that affects people outside their country or even their group). They want the simple answer and solution. They want someone to tell them what they want to hear even if it's just pipedreams. They'll pop up in their masses on voting day and if the rest of the population is fractured or doesn't go to the vote then we're ALL fucked.
Sure, and no politician is going to get elected by telling the truth. But education programs that retrain workers who are unemployed as a result of globalization or automation are wildly successful.
Look, you are totally right. And it's really easy for me to say these things because I'm not a union autoworker who used to make 80K a year with a pension that lost that work to a plant in Mexico or Alabama.
But the reality is there is very little either party can do to stem the flow of globalization, which is why liberal policies of basic living wages and safety nets are the right method forward.
No one is going to be bringing back cobbling as a trade either. And there is nothing that a politician can do to keep manufacturing jobs in the US at such high wages when automation and globalization makes them cheaper. You can slap insane tariffs on everything to try and prevent it, but then you will get retaliatory tariffs and now the things that America does make will no longer be sold overseas and the US economy no longer functions on Americans selling things to Americans.
Policies designed to stop globalization do very little to return jobs that were lost, but do a lot to implode economies as investment flow out of the walled of nation.
Havoc2049
Member
Romney didn't get almost all the white vote, just the majority. Trump is polling higher that Romney among white males and females and Trump is doing better than Romney at getting people out to vote, so there will be more white voters this election than last election. It also looks like Trump might do better with Hispanics than Romney. Familia and Machismo are still important in Hispanic culture and Trump has that in spades.
Venezuela here is a red herring. The economy isn't in shambles because the energy sector was expropriated, but because the nation was so reliant on the export of oil. The biggest mistake of Chavez and Maduro was failing to diversify when they had the chance. This ongoing crisis would have still happened under private dominance. And let's not pretend that Venezuela was more prosperous before the energy sector was nationalized.
Any benefit felt by the developing world isn't a goal of neoliberalism. It's a side-effect. The extraction of wealth from the global South is happening through exchanges far less one-sided than open colonialism, but still exploitative. African nations are locked into poverty because nearly all of them except for Botswana have their export markets handled by Western, Russian, or Chinese companies.
If globalism happened on the terms of fair exchange, rather than free exchange, the movement of capital between developed and developing countries would be much more beneficial to both parties. I don't oppose globalism as an effect, but the means by which it was achieved. And as capital continues to be shared by fewer and fewer hands, it's entirely possible that most of the benefits of globalism will erode in the West and in the rest. To be blunt, I'm not comfortable with so much money being held by so many people. Not actively opposing the accumulation of capital is irresponsible.
PreyingShark
Member
That's "Applies", "Doesn't apply", and "No opinion."
Yes, the majority of voters in this poll said that Donald Trump is running for the good of the country and not personal gain. Uh... Okay, sounds legit.
User Name Here
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Bounceounce
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You really think Minorities (I'm black) are any more rational and less emotional?
We're just intrinsically placed in a position that will lead towards us making the sounder choice on certain issues.
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