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[Bam Bam Baklava]

It's important to remember this was the one state where he was actually behind by a small or large amount (depending on the poll) before the debate.

Donald Trump has a significant lead in the race to win over likely Iowa caucus-goers, according to the first CNN/ORC poll in the state this cycle.

Trump tops the field with 22% and is the candidate seen as best able to handle top issues including the economy, illegal immigration and terrorism. He's most cited as the one with the best chance of winning the general election, and, by a wide margin, as the candidate most likely to change the way things work in Washington.

Retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson follows Trump in overall preference with 14%, bumping Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker, who had held the top spot in most recent public polling in Iowa, down to third place with 9%. Walker is nearly even with a slew of other candidates.

http://www.cnn.com/2015/08/12/politics/iowa-donald-trump-poll-cnn-orc/

 

[Savitar]

Iowa loves it crazy.

 

[Africanus]

Good. Goooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooood.

 

[K.Sabot]

Dream match: Trump v Sanders

 

[TheBowen]

......* sigh*

 

[GhaleonEB]

Yes. Let the clown show continue.

 

[Escape Goat]

Trump surging, Bernie surging, Im surging.

 

[quickwhips]

Trump carson

 

[Team Alucard]

Just a friendly reminder that we voted for Fuckabee in 08 and Santorum in 12.
Our effect on the primary elections are overblown.

 

[Limited Edition]

C'mon Trump vs.Sanders in the general! It would be hilarious to watch that unfold.

 

[Dazzler]

Mr. Trump, your campaign seems to have the momentum of a runaway freight train. Why are you so popular?

 

[SolarPowered]

Trump carson

Trump and Cruz BFFs

Mr. Trump, your campaign seems to have the momentum of a runaway freight train. Why are you so popular?

He's a star!

 

[Emperor_Uriel]

As long as Walker's campaign crashes and burns.

Trump is a buffoon, but I'm still thinking he'd be a better president than a legit republican. Let's just hope that he can't actually stand up to the democratic candidate, whomever that ends up being.

 

[kirblar]

Poll results- since the video is annoying-

22% Trump
14% Carson
9% Walker
8% Cruz
7% Fiorina
7% Huckabee
5% Bush
5% Paul
5% Rubio
3% Christie

All that money flowing into Bush/Walker is hilarious.

Trump is a buffoon, but I'm still thinking he'd be a better president than a legit republican.

Yup.

 

[GDJustin]

Iowa loves it crazy.

No - Iowa normally plays it straight, which makes this weird. You're thinking on Minnesota.

 

[FZZ]

Trump vs. Sanders is gonna really happen isn't it?

What a world we live in.

 

[kmax]

What a farce.

I can't wait to get this over with already. My heart can't take too much of this.

 

[Angry Grimace]

The Iowa Caucus is in 173 days, the Iowa GOP caucuses aren't even binding, half these candidates won't even be around by the time the caucus takes place and if you take those guys away, 78% of people aren't voting for Trump.

 

[darkside31337]

Trump vs. Sanders is gonna really happen isn't it?

What a world we live in.

Its not. And anyone who thinks it is doesn't understand why these polls don't mean anything.

 

[Steve o 3000]

President Trump. How the hell does anyone think this is a good idea?

 

[David Incorporated Esq.]

Iowa sure is bad at picking candidates.

 

[Arrogant Bastard]

Trump vs. Sanders is gonna really happen isn't it?

What a world we live in.

LOL no, it isn't happening on either side.

 

[Oddduck]

LOL at Bush being tied for 5% with Rand Paul.

 

[Drifters]

The Iowa Caucus is in 173 days, the Iowa GOP caucuses aren't even binding, half these candidates won't even be around by the time the caucus takes place and if you take those guys away, 78% of people aren't voting for Trump

So basically fuck Iowa is what you're saying?

 

[Alebrije]

 

[BoboBrazil]

Go Trump. I hope he wins the Republican nomination.

 

[params7]

C'mon Trump vs.Sanders in the general! It would be hilarious to watch that unfold.

 

[bearythebear]

This is quickly going from funny to scary now.

 

[SolarPowered]

Trump vs. Sanders is gonna really happen isn't it?

What a world we live in.

The odds of this matchup happening are probably about as good as flipping a coin having it land on the same side a dozen times in a row, but it would be legendary if it did happen. It'd be the political equivalent of Rocky IV lmao.

 

[BreezyLimbo]

At this rate the GOP will have no choice but to nominate him. It's not enough to force him to go to a 3rd party pick, Trump is carrying by name alone not by being Republican. And if he doesn't get nominated, then he can start pulling the 'The Republican party isn't Republican enough for me.' It's a pretty damn hilarious predicament the GOP is in.

 

[giga]

Trump vs. Sanders is gonna really happen isn't it?

What a world we live in.

No. Stop and read.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/donald-trump-is-winning-the-polls-and-losing-the-nomination-2/

But the problem isn’t just that the national polls at this stage in the race lack empirical power to predict the nomination; it’s also that they describe a fiction. I don’t mean to suggest that Donald Trump’s support in the polls is “fake.” I have no doubt that some people really love him or that he’d be the favorite if you held a national, winner-take-all Republican primary tomorrow. However, the “election” these polls describe is hypothetical in at least five ways:

- They contemplate a vote today, but we’re currently 174 days from the Iowa caucuses.
- They contemplate a national primary, but states vote one at a time or in small groups.
- They contemplate a race with 17 candidates, but several candidates will drop out before Iowa and several more will drop out before the other states vote.
- They contemplate1 a winner-take-all vote, but most states are not winner-take-all.
- They contemplate a vote among all Republican-leaning registered voters or adults, but in fact only a small fraction of them will turn out for primaries and caucuses.

 

[border]

What is Jeb Bush going to do? He's massively behind in almost every poll, yet he is supposed to be the obvious Republican nominee.

 

[Angry Grimace]

So basically fuck Iowa is what you're saying?

I'm just reminding everyone that Rick Santorum won the 2012 caucus and the caucus has failed to accurately pick the candidate numerous times, and hell, the August Straw Poll has failed to accurately predict the winner of the caucus 50% of the time (which is probably why they cancelled the August straw poll)

 

[Ganzlinger]

No one stops the Trump train!

 

[Owzers]

What is Jeb Bush going to do? He's massively behind in almost every poll, yet he is supposed to be the obvious Republican nominee.

make a foreign policy speech about Iraq where you hope blaming Clinton will make people forget your last name is Bush.

 

[giga]

What is Jeb Bush going to do? He's massively behind in almost every poll, yet he is supposed to be the obvious Republican nominee.

Be sane and continue to pick up endorsements? A 17-field republican field is useless to judge votes. Once most of them drop out, the GOP electorate will start to focus on one.

 

[SimleuqiR]

The Iowa Caucus is in 173 days, the Iowa GOP caucuses aren't even binding, half these candidates won't even be around by the time the caucus takes place and if you take those guys away, 78% of people aren't voting for Trump.

They will all line like ducks behind Bush.

 

[Bam Bam Baklava]

Be sane and continue to pick up endorsements? A 17-field republican field is useless to judge votes. Once most of them drop out, the GOP electorate will start to focus on one.

That's the thing though. Trump actually gets more support when they ask about the specific issues like economy and immigration.

 

[Drifters]

I'm just reminding everyone that Rick Santorum won the 2012 caucus and the caucus has failed to accurately pick the candidate numerous times, and hell, the August Straw Poll has failed to accurately predict the winner of the caucus 50% of the time (which is probably why they cancelled the August straw poll)

Well I don't doubt it will have little impact. Something something broken clock right twice a day.

 

[woolley]

What is Jeb Bush going to do? He's massively behind in almost every poll, yet he is supposed to be the obvious Republican nominee.

I doubt he's paying much attention to polls at this point, he's playing the long game, he has the money to do so and is just waiting for it to get less crowded.

 

[border]

Be sane and continue to pick up endorsements? A 17-field republican field is useless to judge votes. Once most of them drop out, the GOP electorate will start to focus on one.

He's in a tie for 7th place.....is he just supposed to hope everyone below him gives up first? And that their supporters flock to him instead of the 6 people who are polling ahead of him?

 

[BreezyLimbo]

I doubt he's paying much attention to polls at this point, he's playing the long game, he has the money to do so and is just waiting for it to get less crowded.

Jeb has the shadow of his brother though. That was in recent times as well, 8 years ago. If Trumps a clownish wild card, Jeb is the dark horse.

 

[Sho_Nuff82]

I'm thinking Iowa is no longer a good barometer of which way the country will turn for either party. But still, Ben Carson in second is far more embarrassing than any of the other order. Get it together Iowa.

 

[giga]

That's the thing though. Trump actually gets more support when they ask about the specific issues like economy and immigration.

Doesn't matter. Read the 538 post.

He's in a tie for 7th place.....is he just supposed to hope everyone below him gives up first? And that their supporters flock to him instead of the 6 people who are polling ahead of him?

I doubt he'll be 7th by the time of the actual caucus.

 

[Einhander]

Trump: Come at the god, prepare for the beating

 

[ReturnOfTheRAT]

This is good. Let him eat the Republicans up.

 

[barik]

It's scary to me how nonchalant everyone is about this. Are you guys serious? This insane lunatic? The fact that he's even allowed to run is beyond words to me.

 

[Team Alucard]

It's scary to me how nonchalant everyone is about this. Are you guys serious? This insane lunatic? The fact that he's even allowed to run is beyond words to me.

The true indictment of the state of American politics isn't that this "insane lunatic" is leading the polls, it's that he is still somehow less insane that every other Republican candidate running.

 

[Drifters]

It's scary to me how nonchalant everyone is about this. Are you guys serious? This insane lunatic? The fact that he's even allowed to run is beyond words to me.

I'm not sure I get the outrage; He is who he is and anyone who doesn't agree with him is either weak or a loser. He's not beating around bushes on anything he isn't and just because he crass doesn't mean people won't like that in a politician.

 

[kirblar]

It's scary to me how nonchalant everyone is about this. Are you guys serious? This insane lunatic? The fact that he's even allowed to run is beyond words to me.

Because on social issues he's not conservative at all.

Trump winning isn't nearly the disaster anyone else is from the GOP, should you care about things like that.