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[Yanikun]

Depends on what level of breakout we're talking about. The Wii U is selling so poorly that my idea of a Wii U breakout might not be somebody else's.

I think it will sell well this holiday season, but announcements need to be made to keep some of that momentum going into 2014. That's really important, especially since I personally expect the Xbone to lose a lot of steam past the holiday season.

 

[maverick40]

Nintendo games, I'm easily going for a Wii U this christmas. I know most won't, but don't act like there's no reason to buy a Wii U.

Personally I find the Wii u appealing too but I am just looking outside of GAF and to the general public on this one.

 

[ironcreed]

There is zero hype surrounding the Wii U outside of the Nintendo die-hards. That ship sailed last year without much notice, and this year just so happens to have the giant storm clouds of hype building around the PS4 and Xbox One launches. Not trying to be negative, either. Just being realistic. It does not have a snowball's chance in hell of being successful this holiday season.

 

[Coolwhip]

The fact most kids have an 360 or ps3 as do all their friends so they are going to want the next generations of consoles.

Kids have an iPhone or iPad these days. Kids getting an iPad for their 2nd birthday is normal these days. Let's not forget ps360 sold 150 million combined over 8 years, that's hardly 'most kids'. This will be the first time Playstation has to compete against something like mobile gaming. You can't expect things to turn out the same as in the past.

 

[ironcreed]

Kids have an iPhone or iPad these days. Kids getting an iPad for their 2nd birthday is normal these days. Let's not forget ps360 sold 150 million combined over 8 years, that's hardly 'most kids'. This will be the first time Playstation has to compete against something like mobile gaming. You can't expect things to turn out the same as in the past.

The people who like playing their COD, Battlefield, Madden, The Elder Scrolls, etc on their PS3 and Xbox 360 are not going to suddenly pass on the PS4 and Xbox One in order to just go gaming on their phones. The casual crowd that bought into the Wii craze sure as hell have moved on in that direction, though.

 

[Giant Panda]

Wii U sales will pick up, but it won't be a breakout holiday by any means. I'm guessing it'll reach GameCube levels, which while better, is nothing to write home about.

 

[Coolwhip]

The people who like playing their COD, Battlefield, Madden, The Elder Scrolls, etc on their PS3 and Xbox 360 are not going to suddenly pass on the PS4 and Xbox One in order to just go gaming on their phones. The casual crowd that bought into the Wii craze sure as hell have moved on in that direction, though.

I agree, those people will be lining up for PS4. But he was talking about kids.

 

[schuelma]

The people who like playing their COD, Battlefield, Madden, The Elder Scrolls, etc on their PS3 and Xbox 360 are not going to suddenly pass on the PS4 and Xbox One in order to just go gaming on their phones. The casual crowd that bought into the Wii craze sure as hell have moved on in that direction, though.

True, but right now I see little reason to expect those gamers to jump to next gen at launch based on the launch lineups.

 

[titusandronicus]

A lot more people on GAF and other gaming forums will get one, but no chance of a 'breakout'. Especially with the PS4 and Xbox One coming out.

 

[Booter]

if there was a Wii-U Minecraft

seriously, what is preventing Nintendo from ripping off this concept? it's almost a guarantee

 

[Josh7289]

No, the Wii U is dead, but I'll keep enjoying the games that are released for it.

 

[K.Sabot]

You can thank watch dogs for this, but I'm actually thinking of getting a Wii U soon now.

 

[metalslimer]

If by breakout you mean manages to sell more than 100k for the 3rd and 4th time ever then sure. It'll collapse again in January though. I'm not sure why people suddenly think anything has really changed with this situation.

 

[GustyGardens]

I think the Wii U will do just fine this year. All things considering of course.
I have a feeling it'll outsell the Xbox one, but that's mostly having to do with the price-point of the Xbox one.

Hardcore gamers mostly know what they want already, and I wouldn't consider them the market at the moment. When Family A walks in to a GameStop looking to buy a new family console, they're not going to be looking at which console has the exclusive on Call of Duty. They're going to go after the ones that are at an attractive price point, that can stream Netflix and can play those ridiculously fun party games.

Wii U has all of those. Xbox does too, but when you add in Xbox Live and the starting price? It becomes less attractive.

The Playstation is going to be the leader for a long while, I predict. The Wii U is going to need a bit longer to reach its stride, but it's certainly well on its way. Xbox One is going to be last, which will probably cause them to release a Kinect-less version of the system for a lower price point.

 

[The Abominable Snowman]

True, but right now I see little reason to expect those gamers to jump to next gen at launch based on the launch lineups.

Like with any high profile launch, New Hardware sells itself. Games to go along with it are just icing on the cake.

 

[schuelma]

Like with any high profile launch, New Hardware sells itself. Games to go along with it are just icing on the cake.

For PS4 you might be right. XBONE at $500? I'm skeptical.

 

[Cornbread78]

seriously, what is preventing Nintendo from ripping off this concept? it's almost a guarantee

No IDEA, I'm sure MS had some moeny hat on the Minecraft during the PS3/360 gen, but it is launching on PS4/VITA for launch, so there is no reason it can't be on Wii-U. My daughter would scream for a Wii-U if she coule play this with that tablet controller, rather than her laptop all the time.

If by breakout you mean manages to sell more than 100k for the 3rd and 4th time ever then sure. It'll collapse again in January though. I'm not sure why people suddenly think anything has really changed with this situation.

It's tough to tell with out solid launch number on availability, but it is conceivable that it outsells the other two if there are nto enough units available, no? I'm going strickly by launch availability with this..

 

[UNCMark]

My guess at NPDs this holiday season:

Nov:
PS4
Xbox One
360
PS3
Wii U

Dec:
360
PS3
PS4
XB1
Wii U

Wii U is going to get killed, imo.

No IDEA, I'm sure MS had some moeny hat on the Minecraft during the PS3/360 gen, but it is launching on PS4/VITA for launch, so there is no reason it can't be on Wii-U. My daughter would scream for a Wii-U if she coule play this with that tablet controller, rather than her laptop all the time.

I dont know any kid that would scream, at least not with joy, for having a lesser Minecraft experience. Going from PC to console is rough, especially if they're used to playing with friends on group servers and using mods.

 

[Woo-Fu]

It is too late to breakout. The walls are getting higher and thicker every day.

 

[LocalE]

seriously? No, these games will not be system sellers, not at all. The whole WiiU concept does not appeal to the customer. Let it go, this system is finished.

Oh. Well, ok, pack it up. Wii U's done.

In what world is Wii Party a system seller? Are they going to include a controller Pro with every copy? Because that's the only reason the original game sold well.

Wii Remote Motion+.

I hope the Wii U can outdo its launch performance, but part of me doubts it. Wii U had a far bigger launch and with much less competition and less time for the stench of failure to set in.

If it doesn't, its completely and utterly dead and we should move on from discussing its chances

Oh, I guess you didn't get the memo. Apparently Wii U is already finished, so you can move on from discussing it right now.

Seriously for 100 dollars extra you could get a PS4 at Christmas, why would any one pick the Wii u?

A better lineup of exclusives is one solid reason. Seriously? You can seriously ask this question in a serious manner? Why would ANYONE pick the Wii U? You can't be serious. This must be some seriously intentional hyperbole. Seriously.

None of that looks even remotely interesting to me. Call me when the console gets some Japanese RPGs though. And I don't mean X, I mean games with storylines.

wtf?

 

[ironcreed]

True, but right now I see little reason to expect those gamers to jump to next gen at launch bass on the launch lineups.

It's a marathon for sure. But not for lack of wanting a new console. It just always takes people time to make the jump. But that is good for steady sales.

My central point is that the lion's share of PS3 and 360 owners are not going to just drop consoles for fucking phones. It is getting old seeing mobile brought up when it is really a completely different animal that is catering to different needs.

The demand for consoles is very much still there. As should be evidenced by sales for games like GTA V alone.

 

[witness]

I know I am ready to jump in, just want to see what the black Friday deals are for it first. Nintendo's 1st party line up now and 3 big announced games for next year (DK, Mario Kart, and Smash Bros.) give me a lot to play now and games I know will be great next year.

The Wii U should get good sales if they advertise the shit out of the new Mario and the Wii Sports games. Along with PS4 and Xbone being really hard to find and a much more expensive proposition for parents. Not saying its going to lite it up, but its certainly not dead.

 

[The Abominable Snowman]

For PS4 you might be right. XBONE at $500? I'm skeptical.

PS3 did it at $600

 

[Mondy]

No chance in hell. We aren't going to see a significant spike in Wii U sales until Smash Bros.

 

[metalslimer]

No chance in hell. We aren't going to see a significant spike in Wii U sales until Smash Bros.

You mean Mario Kart...? And Wii U will get a "spike" just by virtue of it being the holidays.

 

[schuelma]

PS3 did it at $600

Even ignoring the various arguments that the market has significantly changed since 2006, PS3 had a relatively weak December and dropped off the floor soon after

 

[Vandiger]

Unless its $200 or less, no.

 

[Porcile]

Shame about no Donkey Kong. Would've been a big game to have in my opinion.

 

[Radec]

You might even see the opposite this holiday.

Like lowest sales ever in its lifetime.

 

[Odrion]

No chance in hell. We aren't going to see a significant spike in Wii U sales until Smash Bros.

Hasn't there been a significant spike in sales from the Zelda bundle?

 

[schuelma]

You might even see the opposite this holiday.

Like lowest sales ever in its lifetime.

Do you have any idea how ridiculous that is?

 

[Cornbread78]

My guess at NPDs this holiday season:

Nov:
PS4
Xbox One
360
PS3
Wii U

Dec:
360
PS3
PS4
XB1
Wii U

Wii U is going to get killed, imo.



I dont know any kid that would scream, at least not with joy, for having a lesser Minecraft experience. Going from PC to console is rough, especially if they're used to playing with friends on group servers and using mods.

well to be fair, she is 13, she doesn't really care about mods, the last one she did, made her have to re-install the game because of a glitch, so she's not interested in those anymore. The only servers she goes on are some of the YouTube video bloggers from kids about her age. The Wii-U would give her an opportunity to jump between the big LED TV and the tablet controller and still be able to move around.

 

[Baron Aloha]

Not happening at the current price point.

 

[-Horizon-]

I see a bump in sales during that time but it seriously needed Mario Kart. For no other reason than another big Nintendo name that will attract peoples' attention.

 

[Yanikun]

They already have an ipod or iPhone or iPad mini, why would they want a Wii u? Kids will want the PS4 to play the games all their friends are playing like minecraft, halo, Call of duty or fifa

Fortunately Don Mattrick and Jack Tretton have a product for that, they're called Xbox 360 and PS3.

Anyway, it's undeniable that the Wii U has really tough competition, what with PS3, Xbox 360, PS4, Xbox One, 3DS and perhaps even Wii. But I do think people are blowing the PS4 and Xbone launch out of proportion. There will be stock shortages, and we've had a lot of record-breaking launch numbers that quickly collapsed, and the PS4 and Xbox One are a lot more expensive than people make it sound. Maybe $400 or $500 is nothing special to gaffers, but I see a big difference between $400 and $500 for new consoles that only have mildly-appealing games and $300 for a new console with at least one widely-appealing game bundled. I think a lot of gaffers are undermining the psychological difference between $299, $399 and $499, especially when the last two can't even be found on the shelves.

The Wii U will have to contend with the PSBone hype as well as with similarly-priced consoles with a much bigger library, but I don't think those will be big enough obstacles to prevent the Wii U from selling respectable numbers this holiday season. Harder would be to keep it up into the new year. That's what the 3DS had failed to do.

 

[marc^o^]

Maybe. I believe the Mario Kart launch will be the real breakout.

But things are looking quite good. Zelda seems to be the first post launch system seller.

Now they need to hammer television with:
- WiiFit U spots during shows watched by soccer moms
- Mario 3D World during kids programs.

Mario 3D World is irresistible, and Nintendo should start promoting it in early November. Sega will most likely promote Sonic to hell.

By year's end everyone should at least know on what console these games run.

 

[LiquidMetal14]

It will do well simply because it's the holiday season. It's in the rearview as far as I see with the two impending proper next gen platforms.

 

[Nightstick11]

All I gotta say is some of you who've somehow convinced yourself that Xbone/PS4's first 12 months are going to resemble Wii or PS2's are in for a rude awakening.

The launch shipments will sell out (even Vita and Wii U had great launches) and of course this holiday season would be better for the Wii U than it has been in other seasons, but by every indice the industry has contracted. Contracted severely.

 

[maverick40]

Oh. Well, ok, pack it up. Wii U's done.



Wii Remote Motion+.



Oh, I guess you didn't get the memo. Apparently Wii U is already finished, so you can move on from discussing it right now.



A better lineup of exclusives is one solid reason. Seriously? You can seriously ask this question in a serious manner? Why would ANYONE pick the Wii U? You can't be serious. This must be some seriously intentional hyperbole. Seriously.



wtf?

Chill drama queen! There is one exclusive that might do numbers for the Wii u this Christmas and that is 3D Mario other than that the next gen duo wipe the floor with the 3rd party and 1st party line up they will have this Christmas!Nintendo doesn't have a hope of competing against these two, wake up

 

[hoserx]

Well, it had better be to say the least. There are a lot of games I'm looking forward to, but I'm worried that outside of NeoGaf, no one cares or even knows about them

 

[codhand]

Yes.

 

[nordique]

I hope so.

But likely not, unfortunately.

 

[Timeaisis]

For parents with kids that don't want to spend $400 + cost of a couple games games, it will sell well.
.
I think we're all missing that point in this thread. Wii U has $300 bundles with games included. And good ones, at that

 

[codhand]

"it's tempting but it will probably just sit and collect dust like my Wii"


email response from my friend when i told him to continue his every star, in every mario game quest

 

[The Abominable Snowman]

Even ignoring the various arguments that the market has significantly changed since 2006, PS3 had a relatively weak December and dropped off the floor soon after

But what youre saying gives far more credence to the "New hardware sells itself" thing I was just saying.

Slight correction for you there. The PS3 had a muted November launch because of lack of availability (initial 400K shipment got cut in half) and bounced in December before a slow decline starting Jan. 197K in November 2006, 491K in December. 244K in Jan and 127K in Feb. Not exactly dropping on the floor but not entirely healthy

This was the PS3 launch in NA

Title	Publisher
Call of Duty 3	Activision
Genji: Days of the Blade	Sony Computer Entertainment
Madden NFL 07	EA Sports
Marvel: Ultimate Alliance	Activision
Mobile Suit Gundam: Crossfire	Namco Bandai
NBA 07	Sony Computer Entertainment
NBA 2K7	2K Sports
Need for Speed: Carbon	Electronic Arts
NHL 2K7	2K Sports
Resistance: Fall of Man	Sony Computer Entertainment
Ridge Racer 7	Namco Bandai
Tiger Woods PGA Tour 07	EA Sports
Tony Hawk's Project 8	Activision
Untold Legends: Dark Kingdom	Sony Online Entertainment

In addition, it sold over 600K its opening weekend in Europe and crossed 1M in roughly 9 weeks in sales. It was the fastest selling hardware, and the most expensive one also.

It apparently did OK in Japan, about 500-600K in its first 5 weeks, before a big slowdown.

New hardware jumps out the gate. Its the weeks afterward where it has to prove itself.

 

[1upmuffin]

I think that the Wii U will continue to have small bursts of sales as new games come out like 3d World, Mario Kart, Smash Bros, etc, but I don't think it's ever gonna do amazingly. Hopefully the small bursts of hardware sales mixed with high selling software will make the system profitable enough for them to continue it for awhile.

 

[Dysun]

No, they are stuck in no-man's land. Parents wanting to get their kids a cheaper console will go with the 200 dollar 360/PS3 which should post great numbers this Holiday. Others will choose the new 2DS, or 3DS and still have access to Nintendo's library of games. That's not even mentioning the elephant in the room of PS4/Xbox One which are going to take the enthusiast market.

There's not much left for them

 

[Exile20]

I think that the Wii U will continue to have small bursts of sales as new games come out like 3d World, Mario Kart, Smash Bros, etc, but I don't think it's ever gonna do amazingly. Hopefully the small bursts of hardware sales mixed with high selling software will make the system profitable enough for them to continue it for awhile.

Without strong third party support there is no way the Wii U can sustain sales. You are right that small burst will happen with specific titles.

I wonder if Nintendo released Mario in the beginning of Nov and Kart in the beginning of Dec if it would turn it around like the 3ds.

The Wii U is enough for me, I have a backlog already and it is only going to get worst but for the average gamer I can see they passing on the Wii U with no real third party support. It is what it is. If this at worst becomes a Nintendo first party system I would still be happy.

 

[RPGamer92]

Mario should boost sales this holiday but Nintendo should space out their heavy hitters (Mario Kart, Smash) next year to make sure it has more constant sales.

 

[SmokedMeat]

How can it break out of a sales slump if nobody knows what it is? Or so I've heard numerous times.