Now, when looking at the sheer FERVOR with which these people advocate for vaccine mandates, and the furiously rapid progression of said dictates, one should keep in mind that all of this is not happening in the USA of March or April 2020 - it is happening now. That is to say, the dynamics of the disease as well as our knowledge of and response to it have grown dramatically since the inception of the pandemic. The landscape has changed significantly, and thus some measures which might (MIGHT) have been understandable/acceptable in the early months of COVID are simply no longer acceptable as they no longer comport with the science. The way these mandate-pushers talk, you'd think that folks were just as likely to contract COVID, be hospitalized from it, or die from it as they were in April 2020 when the alpha strain was dominant. This is simply NOT the case for the following reasons:
- Alpha strain was demonstrably more lethal (roughly 150% as lethal as Delta). All the data from the UK/Israel/US supports this. Delta, a less lethal (yet admittedly more contagious) strain, now predominates. One would thus expect fewer deaths per capita. Admittedly, however, Delta's presumptive lethality is confounded by the fact that...
- Treatment modalities have improved tremendously. The biggest change from the first 6-10 months of the pandemic has been the increasing consensus that putting folks on ventilators actually does more harm than good. If you'll recall, early statistics showed that 40-50% of patients who were put on these vents ended up dying. It was later found that a lot of this was due to the mechanism of action of the virus (which wasn't known initially), and that mechanical pressure was actually counterproductive and could cause a cascade into total pulmonary failure. Now folks are treated for low blood oxygen and poor respiration via other methods, leading to better outcomes. In addition, you have monoclonal antibodies being deployed at scale, steroid-based treatment regimens, anti-virals about to enter the market (Monulpiravir as well as one from Pfizer), a mini-resurgence of HCQ etc. The net effect of all these new treatments and knowledge is that it makes the "prognosis" for hospitals and society much less grim than it was in early-mid 2020. I dare say that if we had these treatments and knowledge from the outset, we'd probably be looking at 350-500K dead in the US instead of 700K.
- The first two waves picked off the "low hanging fruit," so to speak. Folks who were disposed towards severe disease for whatever reasons (age, comorbidities, immune/genetic predisposition in terms of their idiosyncratic response to the virus etc.) were likely culled during the initial phases. At a population level, this means that what you are left with as a substrate for future infections is a more resilient, healthier populace which is better able to fight off severe outcomes or is more responsive to treatment. The net effect is that if you had population B (the population of, say, March-August 2021) as the full population at the start of the pandemic, we wouldn't have accrued as many deaths as we did, simply because it is, on average, a healthier and more resilient population. The same is even more true today.
- Between vaccine-induced and natural immunity, somewhere between 70-85% of the population has some form of protection against severe disease from COVID. This means that if we had today's population living in March/April of 2020, we would not have incurred nearly the amount of deaths which we did, nor would nearly the same amount of people require hospitalization.
Note that each of the above considerations are independent of each other, but each serves to lower the overall risk of death/disease today as compared to 18 months ago. Thus, the question becomes: why are they pushing these mandates so forcefully right now? It's an incongruous reaction given the level of threat.