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[jedimike]

What??? Xbox is primed to have it's best year yet. The game line-up is looking better than it did last year (sans Halo 2) and there is also the impending price-drop(s). I expect $129 at E3 and finally $99 once Xenon hits which will provide huge boosts.

As far as number of releases, Xbox will be pushing out nearly as many games as PS2. GC will be lacking as usual. The quality of all those games are debatable, but the casual gamers don't care anyway. EA will rule 2005 just like they did all the previous years. Zelda has more GAF hype then Halo 2 and GTA combined, but it's sales will be below WW.

 

[neptunes]

hmm gamegear had sold more than I thought.

Most impressive :lol

 

[jarrod]

As far as number of releases, Xbox will be pushing out nearly as many games as PS2. GC will be lacking as usual.

Maybe if all you look at are retailer preorder lists.

All 3 platforms will see over 100 new SKUs this year, PS2 probably well over 200.

 

[milanbaros]

I know this wont really help but I remember reading that the master system had roughly a 5% share in the US market. I think it will have had a much stronger presence in the European market and I'm not sure about Japan.

 

[jedimike]

Maybe if all you look at are retailer preorder lists.

All 3 platforms will see over 100 new SKUs this year, PS2 probably well over 200.

Over 100 games is "dry"? Xbox will be see >150 games, GC will be lucky to get 100, and PS2 will be slightly ahead of Xbox. There are still lots of good games coming to Xbox. The 20-40 Xenon games in development aren't crippling Xbox development.

 

[westical]

Xbox has sold about 500k each in JP and AU iirc.

600K+ for Australia, market share of 38%.

 

[jarrod]

Over 100 games is "dry"?

Yes, when there's so few high profile games. Only PS2 can really be argued to have a great lineup this year and even GameCube has more significant releases than Xbox. The new handhelds and Xenon are probably going to overshadow everything though.

Xbox will be see >150 games, GC will be lucky to get 100, and PS2 will be slightly ahead of Xbox.

I'm betting PS2 sees at least 50 more releases than Xbox, probably more than that. It just has too much exclusive JP support still (lots coming form Square Enix, Namco, Konami, Capcom, Bandai, Sega Sammy, Atlus, Agetec, Natsume, Working Designs, XS, etc) while 95% of western games sre all multiplatform. GC will most likely pass 100, publishers are actually coming back to the machine after prematurely departing last year.

 

[PC Gaijin]

Saturn

5.74m Japan
3.52m Other

9.26m Total

That sounds in line with everything I've ever heard about Saturn shipments until jarrod posted the Saturn sold up to 15 million units. Sega released some financial statements a couple of years ago (2001 or 2002, right after they went 3rd party) that listed how many of each of their systems had been sold. I'd always heard the Saturn sold around 10 million worldwide (the difference between that number and the one above may be the variants produced by other manufacturers, although I would be surprised if they sold in even those low numbers), with around 5.5 million in Japan, 2 million in the US, and the rest mostly in Europe I guess. And there's no way the Saturns from JVC or Hitachi (not to mention Samsung) sold in the neighborhood of 5 million units :lol

I'd also be very interested in Turbografx-16/PC Engine sales figures since I've never seen any definitive ones before. The only figures I've ever seen were 400k T-16s sold in 1990 (this was in an NEC financial report) and 1.5 million PC Engines sold by 1989 (from EGM). Also, how about sales figures on the PC-FX? The only thing I've ever seen was something like 750k from jarrod (without a source though). I also find that hard to believe since the FX sold about 50k at launch, and every time I ever saw it listed in any weekly sales figures from the mid-90s, it sold even worse than Xbox does now :lol

 

[Redbeard]

Yes, when there's so few high profile games. Only PS2 can really be argued to have a great lineup this year and even GameCube has more significant releases than Xbox. The new handhelds and Xenon are probably going to overshadow everything though.

Come on now. Gamecube has exactly one significant release, and Xbox has many more high profile titles coming than the Cube.

 

[Fuzzy]

I've never seen any Master System numbers, I'll look around though...

I just did a quick search and found the following but I don't know how reliable the numbers are.

It may surprise you, however, to learn that the Sega Master System is Sega's second-best selling videogame console to date. Taking into account the three iterations of the console, along with Sega's own figures and those of its licensees, it seems that over 13 million SMS units were sold worldwide between 1986 and 1998 - and that doesn't include the clones and knock-offs.

Source: http://www.eidolons-inn.net/segabase/SegaBase-MasterSystem.html

 

[Musashi Wins!]

Totals:

61.78 NES
49.02 SNES
32.93 N64
18.02 GC

Sad story. I wonder what will happen with the next home console?

 

[jarrod]

That sounds in line with everything I've ever heard about Saturn shipments until jarrod posted the Saturn sold up to 15 million units. Sega released some financial statements a couple of years ago (2001 or 2002, right after they went 3rd party) that listed how many of each of their systems had been sold. I'd always heard the Saturn sold around 10 million worldwide (the difference between that number and the one above may be the variants produced by other manufacturers, although I would be surprised if they sold in even those low numbers), with around 5.5 million in Japan, 2 million in the US, and the rest mostly in Europe I guess. And there's no way the Saturns from JVC or Hitachi (not to mention Samsung) sold in the neighborhood of 5 million units :lol

I'd also be very interested in Turbografx-16/PC Engine sales figures since I've never seen any definitive ones before. The only figures I've ever seen were 400k T-16s sold in 1990 (this was in an NEC financial report) and 1.5 million PC Engines sold by 1989 (from EGM). Also, how about sales figures on the PC-FX? The only thing I've ever seen was something like 750k from jarrod (without a source though). I also find that hard to believe since the FX sold about 50k at launch, and every time I ever saw it listed in any weekly sales figures from the mid-90s, it sold even worse than Xbox does now :lol

I saw the 14M Saturn figure thrown around at SegaBase iirc. I'v also seen 3.5M quoted for PCE/Duo, it was on an old JP page along with tons of other hardware figures, I have no idea how to get to again (it was posted on here a long while back).

edit-just checked, Segbase lists Saturn at 10M. Now I'm not sure where I got it... I need to start archiving links. :/

Come on now. Gamecube has exactly one significant release, and Xbox has many more high profile titles coming than the Cube.

Fanboyz list? I don't see any real high profile Xbox exclusives coming next year, at least compared to a new Zelda, a new Sonic and Mario 128 (possibly).

 

[Broshnat]

Fanboyz list? I don't see any real high profile Xbox exclusives coming next year, at least compared to a new Zelda, a new Sonic and Mario 128 (possibly).

IAWTP

I still haven't found any Master System numbers, but less than 10m I'd assume.

As for some other requests:

PC-FX 400k Japan
Mega CD 400k Japan, 1.44m other, 1.84m total

 

[jarrod]

FWIW, Segabase lists...

MegaDrive/Genesis (28.5M)
Mark III/Master System (over 13M)
Saturn (over 10M)
Mega CD/Sega CD (6.5M)
Dreamcast (5.5M) as of Oct 2000

 

[Redbeard]

Fanboyz list? I don't see any real high profile Xbox exclusives coming next year, at least compared to a new Zelda, a new Sonic and Mario 128 (possibly).

So besides Zelda there's a new Mario noone knows anything about (which may or may not come out on Gamecube), and a new Sonic noone knows anything about? :lol

This is what you call having more high profile releases than Xbox; which has Doom 3, Jade Empire, Forza, San Andreas, Conker, and a boatload of other multiplatform games that aren't coming to the Cube?

 

[Broshnat]

So besides Zelda there's a new Mario noone knows anything about (which may or may not come out on Gamecube), and a new Sonic noone knows anything about? :lol

This is what you call having more high profile releases than Xbox; which has Doom 3, Jade Empire, Forza, San Andreas, Conker, and a boatload of other multiplatform games that aren't coming to the Cube?

Yeah, but you're listing shite.

Conker will be average, Jade Empire is far too overrated cause it's from Bioware, Forza looks good, but more Project Gotham than GT, San Andreas is old as is Doom 3.

Not a real killer game amongst them I'm afraid

RE4 will be big in the US, as will Starfox. Pokemon Collosseum 2 will sell well as will Kirby, Mario Baseball etc.

Zelda will be the killer though- if it doesn't do 4m this year I'll eat my hat !

 

[westical]

Ah, so all the Xbox games you've never played will be shit and not sell, and all the GameCube games you've never played will be fantastic and sell heaps?

 

[jarrod]

This is what you call having more high profile releases than Xbox; which has Doom 3, Jade Empire, Forza, San Andreas, Conker, and a boatload of other multiplatform games that aren't coming to the Cube?

GameCube also has Kirby, Pokemon RPG, Killer 7, Mario Baseball, StarFox Assault, DDR w/Mario, Fire Emblem, Advance Wars and a good helping of multiplatform games too from the usual suspects (EA, Activision, Atari, Bandai, THQ, etc). I don't see Xbox's advantage here, listing 2nd teir IPs and last year's PC/PS2 hits doesn't really help your case. Even Sonic/Mario games "we know nothing about" alone kill that, much less Zelda. :/

 

[Broshnat]

Ah, so all the Xbox games you've never played will be shit and not sell, and all the GameCube games you've never played will be fantastic and sell heaps?

No, but that list of XB games is hardly one I'd call "killer games"

Not a big game among them really.

 

[westical]

No, but that list of XB games is hardly one I'd call "killer games"

Not a big game among them really.

Yeah, I've never heard of San Andreas either.

 

[Redbeard]

Yeah, but you're listing shite.

Conker will be average, Jade Empire is far too overrated cause it's from Bioware, Forza looks good, but more Project Gotham than GT, San Andreas is old as is Doom 3.

Not a real killer game amongst them I'm afraid

RE4 will be big in the US, as will Starfox. Pokemon Collosseum 2 will sell well as will Kirby, Mario Baseball etc.

Zelda will be the killer though- if it doesn't do 4m this year I'll eat my hat !

So old = shite? Conker average, even though the original was one of the best platformers around? Jade Empire "overrated"? Oh man. :lol :lol :lol

And that's quite a AAA list you've got there for the Cube. Is this the same Starfox that someone gave a 6.0 to in EGM?

 

[jarrod]

Ah, so all the Xbox games you've never played will be shit and not sell, and all the GameCube games you've never played will be fantastic and sell heaps?

Just look at the strength of the brands. Xbox will have some good sellers no doubt (even crusty DOOM3 and San Andreas ports will fly off the shelves) but it's lacking in unique high profile experinces to really drive hype and attract attention to the platform. GameCube has at least 3 games of that caliber so far (Zelda/Mario/Sonic), Xbox has zip.

 

[Broshnat]

So old = shite? Conker average, even though the original was one of the best platformers around? Jade Empire "overrated"? Oh man. :lol :lol :lol

And that's quite a AAA list you've got there for the Cube. Is this the same Starfox that someone gave a 6.0 to in EGM?

Yes, a 6. And two 8's. Forgot about that, eh?

And even if it is a tad disappointing (which I'm not saying it is), it'll still sell some good numbers.

This is, after all, a sales thread. If we were talking about game quality, RE4 pretty much shits on everything else this gen.

We're talking about sales, and Forza + Conker + loads of ports are definitely not upto RE4 + Zelda + Kirby + Mario 128 + Pokemon + plenty of other solid GC games.

 

[westical]

GTA3 & GTA:Vice City were old ports, and they've sold over a million copies in the US alone.

So you reckon Kirby is going to outsell San Andreas?

 

[jarrod]

GTA3 & GTA:Vice City were old ports, and they've sold over a million copies in the US alone.

So you reckon Kirby is going to outsell San Andreas?

Worldwide, it has a decent chance depending on when it's released.... I dunno. Neither will probably break 2 million, both will definitely sell over 1 million. But thanks for glossing over my entire point in favor of a totally irrelevant sales battle.

 

[Broshnat]

GTA3 & GTA:Vice City were old ports, and they've sold over a million copies in the US alone.

So you reckon Kirby is going to outsell San Andreas?

Maybe not, but RE4 and Zelda certainly will.

Kirby will outsell Doom 3, Conker and possibly tie with Forza, that's for sure.

Not to even mention Sonic

 

[Redbeard]

Yes, a 6. And two 8's. Forgot about that, eh?

And even if it is a tad disappointing (which I'm not saying it is), it'll still sell some good numbers.

This is, after all, a sales thread. If we were talking about game quality, RE4 pretty much shits on everything else this gen.

We're talking about sales, and Forza + Conker + loads of ports are definitely not upto RE4 + Zelda + Kirby + Mario 128 + Pokemon + plenty of other solid GC games.

And sales has to do with media exposure, marketing, casual appeal, word of mouth, etc...

I don't believe most of these Cube games are going to have the degree of success you think they will. Zelda certainly, mabye Pokemon, but beyond that I don't see these titles being big hits.

We'll see I guess.

 

[westical]

Worldwide, it has a decent chance depending on when it's released.... I dunno. Neither will probably break 2 million, both will definitely sell over 1 million. But thanks for glossing over my entire point in favor of a totally irrelevant sales battle.

Perhaps if I was even replying to you I'd make note of your point.

I have no problem with people saying that there are some big GameCube games coming out this year that will sell well. I do have a problem with people saying that there are no decent Xbox games coming out, and that they will all be outsold by GameCube games.

 

[Broshnat]

Perhaps if I was even replying to you I'd make note of your point.

I have no problem with people saying that there are some big GameCube games coming out this year that will sell well. I do have a problem with people saying that there are no decent Xbox games coming out, and that they will all be outsold by GameCube games.

Yeah, but why?

2004, XB >> GC
2005 though, GC > XB I'm afraid

I can see GC outselling XB in the long run- 25m is a possibility. I've said before (and I wish someone at Nintendo was reading this) that the GC would make (and already in software-wise in the US especially) a really great budget machine.

A redesign, $70 price, large catalogue of games for $20 would do some great business.

 

[KeithFranklin]

RE4 will be big in the US, as will Starfox. Pokemon Collosseum 2 will sell well as will Kirby, Mario Baseball etc.

The more things change the more they stay the same. Every year the Nintendo fans list off the niche Nintendo produced titles (Exception of RE4 in this list) about how they will sell, sell, sell and the same thing happens they sell meh. Then they respond to every XBOX list that overrated, overhyped, wont sell, etc. Call all the XBOX totles garbage then every GCN title that gets mediocre at best scores they still act like are good games.

Each of the following will outsell all those Nintendo titles:

Star Wars Republic Commando
Star Wars Episode III
Jade Empire
Doom 3
GTA SA
Forza
Conker (Not so sure about this)



Not to mention already this year (Post Xmas) XBOX already had 3 high quality games (MechAssault 2, Mercenaries, Oddworld SW) released to GCN's 1 (RE4).

By the way EBGames lists 91 new products coming for XBOX, 88 for PS2, and 30 for GCN

 

[Speevy]

There's like a 3 million unit disparity between the Halo games and the next million seller on the Xbox. It's not hard to outsell the Xbox lineup, provided it's not called "Halo".

 

[Musashi Wins!]

Just look at the strength of the brands. Xbox will have some good sellers no doubt (even crusty DOOM3 and San Andreas ports will fly off the shelves) but it's lacking in unique high profile experinces to really drive hype and attract attention to the platform. GameCube has at least 3 games of that caliber so far (Zelda/Mario/Sonic), Xbox has zip.

I can't believe you keep using Sonic as an example. I'm happy with the GC lineup, but as much as I respect your vast historical and developer knowledge, your as reliable as Broshnat when discussing the outlook of MS/Nintendo.

Fuck these release war lists, everyone knows one thing...that the rest of the year won't pan out directly as it's painted by rabid company partisans here. Last year didn't.

 

[Speevy]

I think Jade Empire will have a tough time selling to the Xbox userbase. The theme will probably be a turnoff for many of them. I'll buy it though, definitely.

 

[KeithFranklin]

but it's lacking in unique high profile experinces

How can someone use Mario/Sonic/Zelda to describe unique high profile experiences is beyond me. Yeah these games have never be done before and each and everyone is different.

 

[Speevy]

MS better hype Forza like crazy. PGR2 didn't sell for some reason.

 

[human5892]

I'd be mightily surprised if Conker (not a fit for the Xbox demographic), Jade Empire (same), Doom 3 (it's old news on the PC...bad old news), and possibly Forza (unknown IP coming to a system already saturated pretty heavily with racers) sold even halfway decently on Xbox.

Of course, the problem with the GC's lineup is the machine itself -- will it suffer another anti-momentum sales decline in 2005? I think we can all agree that the only reason it did relatively well in December was due to its competitor's mistakes. Whoever suggested a budget-priced redesign has the right idea -- IMO, that's the only real way for Nintendo to ensure some kind of turnaround (however minor) this year. Anything else is just a crap shoot.

 

[KeithFranklin]

I think Jade Empire will have a tough time selling to the Xbox userbase.

Your kidding right...

After Morrowind and KOTOR (KOTOR 2 as well, even tho not entirely Bioware) sold very well.

 

[Odnetnin]

I think Jade Empire will have a tough time selling to the Xbox userbase. The theme will probably be a turnoff for many of them. I'll buy it though, definitely.

what? the white trash redneck usebase? Because of its oriental angle? this is just like what some folks said about a game called GTASA with OMG black characters

 

[Speevy]

Zelda's going to outsell everything on the Xbox. Every other Cube game is going to sell less than 200,000 in its first month.

 

[Odnetnin]

Zelda's going to outsell everything on the Xbox. Every other Cube game is going to sell less than 200,000 in its first month.

even halo or halo 2? fail.

 

[Speevy]

what? the white trash redneck usebase? Because of its oriental angle? this is just like what some folks said about a game called GTASA with OMG black characters

No, not at all.

I'm an Xbox owner. I think the Xbox userbase is interested in very action-oriented titles that make ambitious use of the Xbox's power. Somehow I think that "angle" will be difficult to convey when talking about Jade Empire.

 

[Speevy]

even halo or halo 2? fail.

I mean, in 2005. Nothing on the Cube will ever outsell Halo or Halo 2. That ship has sailed.

 

[jedimike]

Yeah, but why?

2004, XB >> GC
2005 though, GC > XB I'm afraid

I can see GC outselling XB in the long run- 25m is a possibility. I've said before (and I wish someone at Nintendo was reading this) that the GC would make (and already in software-wise in the US especially) a really great budget machine.

A redesign, $70 price, large catalogue of games for $20 would do some great business.

... now this is a bit much. :lol GC is a budget machine. Remember... $99 is the "magic" price point. It was the price point that was going to propel GC into 2nd place for good. GC has lost mindshare in US, Europe, and Japan. It will continue to decline in sales and there is no way it can compete against Xbox... especially with a Xbox price drop coming soon. There is no comeback and there is no magic game for GC. Of course Nintendo's 1st party offerings will sell well... they always do, however those software sales aren't going to transfer to hardware sales.

 

[Odnetnin]

... now this is a bit much. :lol GC is a budget machine. Remember... $99 is the "magic" price point. It was the price point that was going to propel GC into 2nd place for good. GC has lost mindshare in US, Europe, and Japan. It will continue to decline in sales and there is no way it can compete against Xbox... especially with a Xbox price drop coming soon. There is no comeback and there is no magic game for GC. Of course Nintendo's 1st party offerings will sell well... they always do, however those software sales aren't going to transfer to hardware sales.

I agree and disagree. 2005 is the end year for Xbox whether you like it or not. Games have more or less trickled to a halt but GC does have heavy hitters coming yet. GC will probably end the gen with higher WW numbers. Watch Xenon cannibalise Xbox.

Yo

 

[_Angelus_]

Some of you people sound like you're no older than 9 years old. Bitter to the end,godamn.

 

[KeithFranklin]

Ya know the Nintendo fans are just like the "Black Knight" in "Monty Python in the Holly Grail"

King Arthur: Now stand aside, worthy adversary.
The Black Knight: 'Tis but a scratch.
King Arthur: A scratch?! Your arm's off.
The Black Knight: No it isn't.
King Arthur: Then what's that then.
The Black Knight: I've had worse.

The Black Knight: Right, I'll do you for that.
King Arthur: You'll what?
The Black Knight: Come here.
King Arthur: What are you gonna do, bleed on me?
The Black Knight: I'm invincible!
King Arthur: You're a loony.

The Black Knight: Have at you!
King Arthur: You're indeed brave sir knight, but the fight is mine.
The Black Knight: Oh, had enough, aye?
King Arthur: Look you stupid bastard, you've got no arms left.
The Black Knight: Yes I have.
King Arthur: Look!
The Black Knight: Just a flesh wound.

 

[Flatbread]

I'd be mightily surprised if Conker (not a fit for the Xbox demographic), Jade Empire (same), Doom 3 (it's old news on the PC...bad old news), and possibly Forza (unknown IP coming to a system already saturated pretty heavily with racers) sold even halfway decently on Xbox.

Of course, the problem with the GC's lineup is the machine itself -- will it suffer another anti-momentum sales decline in 2005? I think we can all agree that the only reason it did relatively well in December was due to its competitor's mistakes. Whoever suggested a budget-priced redesign has the right idea -- IMO, that's the only real way for Nintendo to ensure some kind of turnaround (however minor) this year. Anything else is just a crap shoot.

what do you consider halfway decent?

I think doom 3 and jade empire will both sell over 500,000 units in US, and if jade empire is very good then it has a shot at a million lifetime.

Look how well SWKOTR 2 has done, sold 458,000 its first month. Fable is up to 900,000, there is a hunger for good RPG's for the box and Jade Empire I think will sell very well.

And you seem to forget all the sports games that sell so well on the xbox. Without competition from espn2K how well do you think madden is going to sell?

There are several games coming out that will sell very well for the xbox in 2005, SWKOTR 3 is on its way, 2 new tom clancy games, and of coarse there will be a hit that no one saw coming.

One thing I think is that the xbox will continue to sell well throughout 2005, and will beat GC every single month in terms of hardware and software sales except maybe the month zelda comes out.

I dont think forza or conker will sell well, time will tell.

 

[tahrikmili]

The more things change the more they stay the same. Every year the Nintendo fans list off the niche Nintendo produced titles (Exception of RE4 in this list) about how they will sell, sell, sell and the same thing happens they sell meh. Then they respond to every XBOX list that overrated, overhyped, wont sell, etc. Call all the XBOX totles garbage then every GCN title that gets mediocre at best scores they still act like are good games.

Each of the following will outsell all those Nintendo titles:

Star Wars Republic Commando
Star Wars Episode III
Jade Empire
Doom 3
GTA SA
Forza
Conker (Not so sure about this)



Not to mention already this year (Post Xmas) XBOX already had 3 high quality games (MechAssault 2, Mercenaries, Oddworld SW) released to GCN's 1 (RE4).

By the way EBGames lists 91 new products coming for XBOX, 88 for PS2, and 30 for GCN

This user is wise. Listen to him.

P.S. I really hope Conker sells great! I sure as hell will get Conker and Oddworld, I love lighthearted 3rd person shooters with weird characters

 

[thorns]

Doom 3 is going to sell on Xbox much better than most people think.
Then there's Midnight Club 3, that most people forgot about.

It's not hard to get big sellers on GC since the competition is so low. In terms of software sales xbox will always be ahead of GC.

What nintendo fans don't get is that Xbox(to a lesser extent, but still moreso than GC) and PS2 have a very varied lineup and there is more one good game coming out each month and you're not force fed to buy whatever game nintendo comes up for that month. You have many good games, which you can choose from. That's what made PS/PS2 a success and what is slowly making the Xbox a success also.

 

[Fafalada]

PSOne
-
3.73 Japan
12.70 USA
10.96 Europe
-
27.39 Total

Looking at this got me wondering - what are the chances of "current" consoles to outsell PSOne, and which one will do it first?

XBox is closest right now, but PSTwo has the momentum. GC seems pretty unlikely to reach that high, but who knows?