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[CornBurrito]

Anyway I need input from other people. Should goshujinsama reveal who he used his power on? Would this be in Hope's best interest, or it is better to keep goshu's thought process an enigma so that they can't plan around it in the future?

 

[kgtrep]

KG, does this have anything to do with the card thing on day one?

And so help me if neither of you are dispair, if you aren't we could be potentially wasting 2 days of voting on you two...

Terrabyte20xx, not really. My decision to vote for Crab is mainly based on the posts that he made on Day 1.


The card game had three purposes:

1. It gives an estimate of how many of us are Despair. Unfortunately, I do not know because I had only received 6 yes/no responses initially.

2. It is a valid test to see how people react to something new. Here, I want to believe that Crab failed the test by not giving a response, because he wasn't sure how to react without outing himself as Despair.

3. It is a coding scheme and gives us Hopes a way to communicate what we found during the nights. This is why I wanted all of you to take a look at it during Night 1.

My plan, before I decided to use my PR instead, was to get everyone to write sentences with words, so that the real message could be hidden among all our messages.

Even if I died, I could count on the possibility that another Hope knows how to decode the messages. If there were an indication that Despair found out how it works, we would abandon this scheme.

 

[CornBurrito]

ALERT ALERT ALTERT

Ok so goshujin's last post in the thread was here at 1:08am. 8/05/15

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=174215154&postcount=817

His last activity is: Last Activity: 08-05-2015 03:20 AM

Two hours after his last post, but wellllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllll before the night phase.

So this suggests that he didnt even use his Night Phase power and was inactive. He hasn't logged on GAF in 3 days.

So that means the Switcher wasn't even doing shit and yet franconp was targeted instead of goshujin or Makai.

 

[kgtrep]

ok like litterally putting alignment aside for a second, kg please stop using posting time / activity time as a basis for your cases it's weird and creepy.

It may be creepy, but I would argue that the actual time is definitely useful.

For example, one could translate the time differences that each of us made his/her posts on Day 1 as vectors, and compare them with vectors on Day 1 from past mafia games.

Since we already know who were town and who were mafia in those games, we can do a similarity test to see which of us in our game are likely town and mafia.

 

[CzarTim]

It may be creepy, but I would argue that the actual time is definitely useful.

For example, one could translate the time differences that each of us made his/her posts on Day 1 as vectors, and compare them with vectors on Day 1 from past mafia games.

Since we already know who were town and who were mafia in those games, we can do a similarity test to see which of us in our game are likely town and mafia.

vote: kgtrep

 

[kgtrep]

vote: kgtrep

 

[*Splinter]

See, I'm interested now. I think it's implausible that mafia would necessarily bandwagon on to today's lynch, they simply don't need to. I think it's interesting Vivvi has moved on to me, because to an extent I am becoming the bandwagon. It may sound a little converse, but I don't think that's a play that will be made right now.

I'm now considering players that have been scrupulously *avoiding* the key wagons - kingkitty, then Rest, then Makai, then ViviOggi, then myself.

The key one that satnds out is kgtrep, who has managed to avoid every single major wagon so far, despite the fact there have been about five of them, surely enough that at least one would coincide with at leatst some person he suspected. It seems at least probable that you have to be actively avoiding them at this point.

VOTE: kgtrep

Bolded. I wanted to come back to this, I weakly refuted it at the time but Crab assured me that this only applied to kgtrep and I yielded since I didn't have time to check.
Well I checked after the day ended and here are the only bandwagons I could find:
AbsolutBro: started by swamped first post
KingKitty: started by KingKitty (or CornBurrito)
Makai: started by Crab
Rest: sstarted by KingKitty
Makai 2: started by Crab (again)
Hagi: started by Crab

Checking up to post 977 (Crab's claim) leaves the following players without a wagon:
kgtrep
Crab (started wagons but didn't join them)
Swamped (started didn't join)
Kalor (nothing until Hagi in post 1080)
AbsolutBro (voted KingKitty ahead of the pack)
BarryLocke (I can't find a Vivi wagon by any stretch of the imagination).
KingKitty (started didn't join)
goshujinsama

So Crab, again, why kgtrep?

 

[Terrabyte20xx]

ALERT ALERT ALTERT

Ok so goshujin's last post in the thread was here at 1:08am. 8/05/15

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=174215154&postcount=817

His last activity is: Last Activity: 08-05-2015 03:20 AM

Two hours after his last post, but wellllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllll before the night phase.

So this suggests that he didnt even use his Night Phase power and was inactive. He hasn't logged on GAF in 3 days.

So that means the Switcher wasn't even doing shit and yet franconp was targeted instead of goshujin or Makai.

It makes sense that none of the known power roles were attacked last night. The longer a known power role is alive, the more suspicious they look, which makes forming a bandwagon that much easier.

That being said, it's not unheard of for the switcher to be mafia-aligned... Assuming that is even his role.

 

[Ty4on]

ALERT ALERT ALTERT

Ok so goshujin's last post in the thread was here at 1:08am. 8/05/15

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=174215154&postcount=817

His last activity is: Last Activity: 08-05-2015 03:20 AM

Two hours after his last post, but wellllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllll before the night phase.

So this suggests that he didnt even use his Night Phase power and was inactive. He hasn't logged on GAF in 3 days.

So that means the Switcher wasn't even doing shit and yet franconp was targeted instead of goshujin or Makai.

Alternate alerts are a thing?

/s
We don't know that he was switcher. This to me points to him having nothing to do at night (normal hope).

 

[CornBurrito]

It makes sense that none of the known power roles were attacked last night. The longer a known power role is alive, the more suspicious they look, which makes forming a bandwagon that much easier.

That being said, it's not unheard of for the switcher to be mafia-aligned... Assuming that is even his role.

It seems entirely too risky to leave Makai alive if he really is the Hope Inspector. That's too dangerous.

 

[CzarTim]

Launch please tell these people to stop using forum activity against people. We established this before the game started not to do this.

thousands of reasons to be on the forums, and only one of those is scum lurker. Like holy shit why am I having to type this what is wrong with you people

 

[Terrabyte20xx]

It seems entirely too risky to leave Makai alive if he really is the Hope Inspector. That's too dangerous.

He never claimed inspector or cop or anything... Just that he had a role.

Why do you assume that's his role?


And on the current situation, I'm really curious to see crabs rebuttal.

 

[LaunchpadMcQ]

ALERT ALERT ALTERT

Ok so goshujin's last post in the thread was here at 1:08am. 8/05/15

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=174215154&postcount=817

His last activity is: Last Activity: 08-05-2015 03:20 AM

Two hours after his last post, but wellllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllll before the night phase.

So this suggests that he didnt even use his Night Phase power and was inactive. He hasn't logged on GAF in 3 days.

So that means the Switcher wasn't even doing shit and yet franconp was targeted instead of goshujin or Makai.

Please refrain from using forum activity as evidence. It's not an indication of anything.

 

[Kalor]

ALERT ALERT ALTERT

Ok so goshujin's last post in the thread was here at 1:08am. 8/05/15

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=174215154&postcount=817

His last activity is: Last Activity: 08-05-2015 03:20 AM

Two hours after his last post, but wellllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllll before the night phase.

So this suggests that he didnt even use his Night Phase power and was inactive. He hasn't logged on GAF in 3 days.

So that means the Switcher wasn't even doing shit and yet franconp was targeted instead of goshujin or Makai.

Isn' One of the rules is not to use user activity in the game if I remember correctly .

 

[CornBurrito]

Please refrain from using forum activity as evidence. It's not an indication of anything.

Isn' One of the rules is not to use user activity in the game if I remember correctly .

Forgot this rule. Sorry.

 

[CornBurrito]

thousands of reasons to be on the forums, and only one of those is scum lurker.

I actually never reached that concluson.

He never claimed inspector or cop or anything... Just that he had a role.

Why do you assume that's his role?


And on the current situation, I'm really curious to see crabs rebuttal.

I thought he soft claimed cop role with the picture of the first game protagonist.

 

[Terrabyte20xx]

I actually never reached that concluson.



I thought he soft claimed cop role with the picture of the first game protagonist.

Theme material is not indicative of the actual game roles. Otherwise people who don't know anything about the theme, such as myself and daganronpa, would be completely in the dark.

 

[LaunchpadMcQ]

Theme material is not indicative of the actual game roles. Otherwise people who don't know anything about the theme, such as myself and daganronpa, would be completely in the dark.

That is correct.

 

[kingkitty]

lol wow

I'll come back in like....27 hours. Pls no turbo.

 

[CornBurrito]

Theme material is not indicative of the actual game roles. Otherwise people who don't know anything about the theme, such as myself and daganronpa, would be completely in the dark.

Right, but he was the one who posted the picture, not Launch. Unless there's a rule that prevents players from using source material to give sly hints.

 

[LaunchpadMcQ]

11 votes are need for a majority in this Day Phase.

 

[kgtrep]

11 votes are need for a majority in this Day Phase.

LaunchpadMcQ, just to verify, is not voting an option?

 

[kgtrep]

Ack, my bad. Of course it is an option. Plurality...

 

[Makai]

I said goddamn!

 

[kgtrep]

Let us assess the damage on Day 1, when two people outed their PRs.

Given that goshujinsama had accidentally hinted at having PR, Makai wouldn't have wanted to reveal his own if his interest was for Hopes to have an advantage and win.

Makai did give us good reasons for no punishment on Day 1 (Posts #445, 450, 648, 790), and it was clear that he didn't want to change his mind.

And yet, Crab kept pursuing Makai (Posts #528, 644, 830) and continually asserted his suspicion (Posts #532, 535, 537, 540, 567, 631, 640, 709, 710, 852, 855), so that we would not forget about Makai and how his view did not align with ours and Crab's in particular.

As votes for Makai began to stack, he had no choice but to reveal having PR so that we would not lynch him.


I believe that this wouldn't have happened had Crab decided to pursue other leads and voted for them instead.

After all, he wanted all of us to, at all times, keep a list of suspects and use our votes to investigate them, so why didn't he do this himself?

Post #630

What we have to lose is more information on an extra four or five people that's being wasted covering exhausted ground. What happens when we lynch kingkitty, and you spent four days entirely focused on him, and he's Hope? You put all your informational eggs in one basket and then you have no leads. That's a risk that we definitely, definitely, do not have to take.

It's funny to see that, when Makai does reveal having PR, Crab claims that his aggressive action had actually been a preventive measure, i.e. to let Makai act normally in case he is Hope or has a PR.

Post #905

>facepalm<

You then ignored *multiple* prompts to act like a normal town and not like an idiot or a power role.

Post #909

Okay, just as a heads up to ANY AND ALL POWER ROLES THAT MIGHT BE READING THIS.

1. ACT LIKE AN ORDINARY TOWN.
2. DO NOT HINT AT YOUR ROLE
3. DO NOT CLAIM YOUR ROLE
4. IF YOU CLAIM YOUR ROLE (DON'T DO THIS) DON'T SAY WHAT IT DOES
5. USE YOUR GOD DAMN COMMON SENSE

I literally cannot believe two town PRs are effectively outed already, one because he asked how his own role PM works in a public thread and the other because he was too silly to work out that if he acts out of place than people will judge him for it.

Post #921

I literally gave him a way out so many times. Literally every time I voted him, I said "give me suspects".

The blame for Makai outing himself, totally unnecessarily, falls entirely and squarely on Makai.

Post #951

As town, it is incredibly important to me that Makai *acts like a normal person*. [...]

Finally, you absolutely cannot say "I pinned him in a corner". Literally *every single post I ever threw at him* I said "Tell me suspects", "Tell me suspects", "Tell me suspects". That's not a fucking corner, that's wide open. All he had to do to get out was... tell me some suspects. That's not rocket science. The only person who made Makai claim in that situation was Makai: there was absolutely NO need to.

Post #970

I reject this categorically. If Makai actually followed my advice, we wouldn't be in this situation.

My goal was to demonstrate to Makai how this routine is supposed to go: you push on someone, they give a response, information is attained, everyone moves on and is happy.

I want everyone to not fall into this kind of hindsight bias.

Crab could have knowingly set up this situation, so that Makai's response, whichever way, would garner him respect from us for being initiative.

Had Makai responded to Crab the way he wanted, he could take credit for hiding Makai in plain sight. Had Makai outed his PR under pressure, he could take credit for trying to hide Makai in plain sight.

We cannot know what Crab's true intent was.



In fact, Crab's degree of knowledge about Makai changes before and after Makai's reveal:

Post #559

I think it is highly unlikely he is [Hope with investigative power].

Post #965

I suspected that there was something odd about Makai.

Lastly, let us not forget that Crab was the one who gave us this friendly advice:

Post #451

You don't drop hints you have a role when there are two votes on you, or four votes, or even eight votes or whatnot. You do it literally one vote before you get lynched if there is absolutely no other possible way you can persuade people.

Makai followed both suggestions, and Crab, rather than admitting his advice might have triggered Makai, instead told him,

Post #907

FUCK YOU: Makai

 

[kgtrep]

Let me begin with a quote this time. It's by no one famous.

Post #346

If people are inconsistent with what they reveal early on, [...] then we have a good reason to suspect them.

I want to point out the inconsistencies in Crab's behavior when it comes to his beliefs in votes and discussions, which are the following:

Post #528

I want everyone to have a vote down at all times, and be defending that vote, and be listing potential other people they would be voting if it wasn't for the fact their current vote was better.

Post #970

When you say "Hey, X, I think you're pretty scummy for reasons Y and Z", they then have to respond to you - they have to say "Well, hey, I did Y and Z because of P and Q", and then you go "huh, okay, that's fair, I'll judge someone else". It literally costs you nothing and you get free information.

----


For the record, Crab voted for the following people over Day 1. I'll sample his posts to remind us what his reasons for voting were then.

Try to see if any of them was a good reason. You can immediately notice that Crab never pointed to a single, specific post that any of these people had made that supposedly led to his accusation.


1. A Human Becoming (Post #346)

At the moment I'd rather goad activity out of people, so why are you not talking?

2. Makai (Post #451)

I think it's pretty important we do keep up constant pressure via the votes, and with that in mind,

3. SalvaPot (Post #709)

Nevertheless, he is at least consistent in his refusal, and I don't think I'm going to get much more out of that approach. He's also been vocal about it. In contrast, SalvaPot has done even less.

4. Makai (Post #830)

I'm by no means fully satisfied with Salva's response, but he's done us the basic courtesy of letting us know how he feels about at least one other player (swamped), and his explanation seems at least plausible and consistent with how both have played so far. I'm not comfortable with my vote on him any more.

Mafia is not about PRs. The original game functions without PRs. If the PRs are critical to town's victory, it wasn't a well-designed game. The key and critical fundamental mechanic by which mafia works is giving reads. If nobody gives that, the game doesn't work. Makai is deliberately avoiding playing the game and has no good justification for this. He is either scum, or a town who is playing *actively* to the detriment of other town players. I have absolutely no hesitation in recommending his Punishment.

5. ViviOggi (Post #924)

Vivi is pretty definitively middle of the pack scum to me - middle-ish post rate, posts sit on the fence, very selective engagement, the works.

6. kgtrep (Posts #977, 991)

The key one that satnds out is kgtrep, who has managed to avoid every single major wagon so far, despite the fact there have been about five of them, surely enough that at least one would coincide with at leatst some person he suspected. It seems at least probable that you have to be actively avoiding them at this point.

Essentially: as a mafia, I very rarely have my vote on the person who gets lynched, because people suspect that. There are probably going to be 5 mafia in this game and 18 town; there's easily enough town to lead an all-town wrong lynch on someone, especially right now when it only takes about 3 votes because we're so divided. Right now, I would suspect someone who has managed to avoid every single major wagon, because they cover a diverse array of players that many people have fairly good reason to suspect. It seems implausible you couuld have not once voted for any of those players. So, that leads me to suspect kgtrep, who has done just that.

7. Hagi (Post #1033)

I am obviously town (shame on you all), and I'd rather absolutely anything happened including my own lynch than No Punishment, so I am forced to default to Hagi, who I have a nullread on, out of necessity.

----


Next, take a look at Crab's reaction when he gets asked about his opinion on people whom he hadn't voted for yet.


When *Splinter asked for his thought on KingKitty, he gave a non-answer:

Post #576

It was interesting and I have ideas about it, but right now we're not really looking for a 100% confirmed no alternatives honest-to-goodness prime rump mafia; it's only day one. I'm much more concerned with making sure we have as wide a spread of information on as many different players as possible to serve for future days, so I'm going to be focusing heavily on players that aren't volunteering information.

When Rest wanted to know as well, Crab followed with aggression and dodged the question by questioning the accuser instead:

Post #623

Excellent, good. So, questions: what do you expect to gain from discussing kingkitty's situation now, as opposed to in two days? Conversely, do you think there's anything we might lose?

Post #630

This is boring. I already talked about kingkitty when asked by CzarTim in post #540, and I explained why I don't want to focus on him in both prior replies to you and, before you even brought the subject up, in replies to *Splinter in #576 - which you actually quoted, so you're clearly aware of it. My answers remain the same as they did then; so I fairly clearly have talked about it.

By asking me this question, you are asking something to which you should already know the answer if you've been following the game, and therefore doing exactly what I was worried about in that you're getting so focused on one issue you'd prefer to retread old ground rather than actually, you know, find scum.

So, my turn for a question: what were you expecting to gain by asking me this?

Post #638

No, don't weasel out of that. I've said I'm willing to talk if you have new questions. That's not "I don't want to talk". You are effectively admitting that you don't have any good questions and have been wasting Hope time, but are trying to pass the buck off on me. That's bad play right there.

Towards the end of Day 1, when CzarTim, CornBurrito, and Pau wanted to vote for Rest, he made this response.

Post #1064

No fucking way. I townread Rest. I've said so multiple times. Not voting him on my life.

Post #1070

Yo, this is bullshit. Rest is Hope, not Despair. I've said so. I don't want Rest lynched. You can't literally lie to people and say I want him lynched. I don't. You also can't say you'll trust me if he is Despair, because I'm pretty damn sure he isn't and I'm pretty damn sure you think he isn't and I'm pretty damn sure you're trying to set me up. Please switch to Hagi anyone who thinks CornBurrito is sketchy as it comes.

Please note that I'm not accusing Rest of being Despair today, but I do want you to take a look at how Crab did not like to share his reasons with us. What exactly makes his list of suspects better than any of ours?


----


Finally, when he is accused of being Despair on the last day is when he shows his true character. He goes berzerk rather than trying to give solid evidence that he has acted as pro-Hope.

Note that his defense does not say "I did Y and Z because of P and Q" that he so believes, but rather "Because I did not do Y and Z, I am not P and Q."

Post #949

>facepalm<

"fly under the rader"

motherfucker it's Dfucking1 and you're already looking at me. If I wanted to fly under the radar, I'd have like 20 less posts and not be leading. Do you have any idea how difficult it would be as scum to try and be the town leader all the way from D1 irself to end-game? Also, if I was scum, my first #1 piece of advice/instruction-you-do-not-breach-on-death would be "never vote with your partners". Again, it's D1. We've had votes on over 10 different people today. Whoever gets lynched will get lynched on like 5 votes. Mafia doesn't even need to vote for whoever gets lynched today, they just need to sit back and watch, preferably all voting for different people and laughing at the Hope players who actually think mafia would bother to concern themselves heavily with D1.

We have genuine to goodness scummy players like ViviOggi, and you're pushing on me, and apparently francop and Sawneeks because they followed me? Why not CzarTim or Pau, who've also voted Makai? Clue: lots of people voted Makai (in fact, more than any other player) because he played really badly.

Let's be real here: ViviOggi has less than 20 posts, in which he says nothing of value and hedges on everything. I have 60 posts in which in every single one I'm constantly telling you how I'm thinking and putting myself on the line. Don't do exactly what the SW people did last game and lynch people who talk a lot on D1, the mafia is almost *never them*.

Post #970

Sure, it's conceivable. It's also extremely unlikely this is something I would push from D1, because you can't push anti-meta for days and days and days because it becomes obvious that whatever the leader says is serially not working and then people lynch the leader. Maybe if I suddenly started doing this from a history of being quiet on D3, you'd have a point. As it is, these games last 9 DAYS. You are INSANE if you think that someone can keep up an anti-meta strat for 9 days. Not doable. I'm flattered if you think I'm that good, but really, no.

 

[kgtrep]

That's all I had to say, everyone. Tomorrow and on the following days, I will do my best to help you analyze these posts and respond to your posts.

 

[Makai]

 

[CzarTim]

please mod kill me

please

 

[LaunchpadMcQ]

please mod kill me

please

Wish granted.

CzarTim is impaled with spears on the spot from seemingly nowhere.

 

[CzarTim]

thank you

good luck town!

 

[kingkitty]

what,

oh...

bye czar :/

 

[LaunchpadMcQ]

thank you

good luck town!

Lol just kidding, you'll still have to live through this despair.

CzarTim's mind is transplanted into a humanoid robot bearing his exact likeness.

 

[CzarTim]

god dammit, please send me a link to the scum thread i already deleted my role pm

 

[Darryl]

god dammit, please send me a link to the scum thread i already deleted my role pm

We can tag team out and I will be first player in all 3 games

 

[CzarTim]

god dammit, please send me a link to the scum thread i already deleted my role pm

guys he did and AB is still scum, kg is an insane person (but unfortunately probably town), and crab may or may not be scum but probably not because holy hell kg is off his meds.

 

[kgtrep]

guys he did and AB is still scum, kg is an insane person (but unfortunately probably town), and crab may or may not be scum but probably not because holy hell kg is off his meds.

I did try to quit coffee last week, only to return to it this week. I'm not getting a lot of sleep these days.

 

[Ourobolus]

All work and no play makes kgtrep a dull boy
All work and no play makes kgtrep a dull boy
All work and no play makes kgtrep a dull boy
All work and no play makes kgtrep a dull boy
All work and no play makes kgtrep a dull boy
All work and no play makes kgtrep a dull boy
All work and no play makes kgtrep a dull boy
All work and no play makes kgtrep a dull boy
All work and no play makes kgtrep a dull boy
All work and no play makes kgtrep a dull boy
All work and no play makes kgtrep a dull boy
All work and no play makes kgtrep a dull boy
All work and no play makes kgtrep a dull boy
All work and no play makes kgtrep a dull boy
All work and no play makes kgtrep a dull boy
All work and no play makes kgtrep a dull boy
All work and no play makes kgtrep a dull boy
All work and no play makes kgtrep a dull boy
All work and no play makes kgtrep a dull boy
All work and no play makes kgtrep a dull boy
All work and no play makes kgtrep a dull boy
All work and no play makes kgtrep a dull boy
All work and no play makes kgtrep a dull boy
All work and no play makes kgtrep a dull boy
All work and no play makes kgtrep a dull boy

 

[Ourobolus]

Wait, what's kgtrep's Erd&#337;s Number?

 

[SalvaPot]

All right, before people go out on a blaze of glory, I want to do something different and instead analyze both the role and the situation.

Here is the thing, kgtrep role is not an indication of alignment, hell, I want to think its actually a Neutral role, made to appeal to both despair and hope. And also, the fact that it was used so early on the game makes me thing its not a one-use skill, I believe he can activate it later on again. If it was a one-time skill, its more likely to be saved for later when he had more evidence or at the end game.

We are in a fixed situation of voting one or the other. Why? Its a do or die ability, so there has to be a reason why it was used so hastily. Is there a reward for the winner of the debate? I think this is a possibility and the reason why it was used so early, even at the risk at getting a Hope player.

And this is also a reason why I think this is a neutral ability, since that way there is no fear of getting a teammate, the debate is either with a despair character OR a hope character.

Now, about crab, I honestly don´t have a reason to doubt him just yet, if I had to choose I´ll say he is likely to align with Hope.

But, sadly, in my opinion we are on a situation where we have to get either a Neutral or a Hope, while Despair is pretty much safe (Again, in my evaluation).

I´ll wait for crab to defend himself before casting my vote, but right now... I think I´ll rather vote Crab, since I am far more sure of kg neutrality than crabs innocence.

 

[Makai]

All right, before people go out on a blaze of glory, I want to do something different and instead analyze both the role and the situation.

Here is the thing, kgtrep role is not an indication of alignment, hell, I want to think its actually a Neutral role, made to appeal to both despair and hope. And also, the fact that it was used so early on the game makes me thing its not a one-use skill, I believe he can activate it later on again. If it was a one-time skill, its more likely to be saved for later when he had more evidence or at the end game.

We are in a fixed situation of voting one or the other. Why? Its a do or die ability, so there has to be a reason why it was used so hastily. Is there a reward for the winner of the debate? I think this is a possibility and the reason why it was used so early, even at the risk at getting a Hope player.

And this is also a reason why I think this is a neutral ability, since that way there is no fear of getting a teammate, the debate is either with a despair character OR a hope character.

Now, about crab, I honestly don´t have a reason to doubt him just yet, if I had to choose I´ll say he is likely to align with Hope.

But, sadly, in my opinion we are on a situation where we have to get either a Neutral or a Hope, while Despair is pretty much safe (Again, in my evaluation).

I´ll wait for crab to defend himself before casting my vote, but right now... I think I´ll rather vote Crab, since I am far more sure of kg neutrality than crabs innocence.

He done goofed claiming it's a one-shot ability if he is neutral. We'll lynch him for sure the next time he uses it. This role was inserted by Launchpad to mimic the gameplay of the video game (brilliantly). I bet there is more than one person with this role, with different alignments - maybe 2 Hope/1 Despair.

 

[kgtrep]

Wait, what's kgtrep's Erd&#337;s Number?

Infinity. I don't do pure math.

All right, before people go out on a blaze of glory, I want to do something different and instead analyze both the role and the situation.

Here is the thing, kgtrep role is not an indication of alignment, hell, I want to think its actually a Neutral role, made to appeal to both despair and hope. And also, the fact that it was used so early on the game makes me thing its not a one-use skill, I believe he can activate it later on again. If it was a one-time skill, its more likely to be saved for later when he had more evidence or at the end game.

We are in a fixed situation of voting one or the other. Why? Its a do or die ability, so there has to be a reason why it was used so hastily. Is there a reward for the winner of the debate? I think this is a possibility and the reason why it was used so early, even at the risk at getting a Hope player.

And this is also a reason why I think this is a neutral ability, since that way there is no fear of getting a teammate, the debate is either with a despair character OR a hope character.

Now, about crab, I honestly don´t have a reason to doubt him just yet, if I had to choose I´ll say he is likely to align with Hope.

But, sadly, in my opinion we are on a situation where we have to get either a Neutral or a Hope, while Despair is pretty much safe (Again, in my evaluation).

I´ll wait for crab to defend himself before casting my vote, but right now... I think I´ll rather vote Crab, since I am far more sure of kg neutrality than crabs innocence.

You are right, and a few others have pointed out what my alignment could be as well. Monokuma deliberately hid it and how many times I can use this power in his announcement.

That I may not able to convince you guys that I am Hope in the next three days is what worries me the most, not what Crab has to say when he finds out his predicament. As to the frequency, you will have to wait to see if I really could use it only once.

 

[Makai]

It's the eleventh hour and Crab demands I accuse somebody:

...

Mafia is not about PRs. The original game functions without PRs. If the PRs are critical to town's victory, it wasn't a well-designed game. The key and critical fundamental mechanic by which mafia works is giving reads. If nobody gives that, the game doesn't work. Makai is deliberately avoiding playing the game and has no good justification for this. He is either scum, or a town who is playing *actively* to the detriment of other town players. I have absolutely no hesitation in recommending his Punishment.

I say Crab and CzarTim are suspicious but I want to wait before formally accusing either:

Sure I did. I do not like aggressive players and I have said so repeatedly. You and CzarTim are the most aggressive. Too many people consider you leaders and are giving you guys a pass because you are "experienced." Trust no1. However, I know that this is CzarTim's natural playstyle and probably yours too. CzarTim also said something I interpreted as a potential dogwhistle. I want to see what happens on night 1 before I declare one of you Despair.

Then he wants me to reveal my role. I complied because I was getting lynched otherwise.

Okay, so what will happen on Night 1 that would make sure that one of us is/is not Despair? What are you expecting from this night?

...

So, what are you expecting to gain from this night? Like, please explain what actual piece of information you want.

Night 1 is over and I am ready to commit.

VOTE: Crab

For the record, I no longer suspect CzarTim.

 

[Pau]

One thing that you don't mention is that maybe they killed franconp as their death wouldn't give much information. If we didn't have kgtreps role today then we would have little information except continuing discussions from d1.

Or maybe Despair killed Franconp as they suspected someone and the Despair kgtrep used their role to try to distract us from discussing it. I doubt this but who knows.

Yeah, I'm wary of letting the discussion about the duel over take all other discussions. I can't really see it being used so early as a neutral power, but I also think it's more detrimental right now for Hope. I will say Crab was probably the best target for it since people will be unlikely to vote for him in other circumstances so early.

franconp's death: I don't see Despair killing people who suspect them so early on. There are probably quite a few players who aren't in the limelight and didn't make accusations on Despair during Day 1. And I'm not sure if there are any power roles that let you have information before Night 1. They might have gone for a player like franconp because there was no reason to suspect protection or switching on 'em.

Also, not feeling comfortable being sandwiched between two empty rooms now.

 

[Barrylocke]

Well this got off to an...exciting start I suppose.

My last thoughts on kgtrip was that he's a townie, but I'm going to keep this in mind, and I think you all should too. Even if you think kgtrip is a Hope-r, that doesn't necessarily mean that we should immediately go for Crab because he may be Despair. If you think Crab is a townie as well, then it may make sense for you to vote for kgtrip, if you think that Crab would be more useful for the town (because potential roles, playing ability, etc).

As for me...I don't think Crab's mode of play immediately shows him to be a townie (it's certainly not as cut and dry as Crab himself made it seem Day 1). So I'm leaning toward a Crab vote. But I will say that between the card game and kgtrip doing this WAY earlier than I personally would have if I were him (if he's a townie than this is approaching hail mary levels of strategy), I'm not exactly fond of his playstyle. He seems townie and earnest, but also reminiscent of blarg, albeit more coherent.

 

[Swamped]

Oh, so Franconp died, and kgtrep brought out the big guns? I actually have a lot to say about how the voting went down Day 1, but I'm on my phone and can't really post huge analyses...but this is all quite unexpected.

I also want to make sure we discuss other people we suspect of being Despair, not just Crab and kgtrep.

I now realize that i have to completely reread the first day too, as all my guesses were off. It's actually quite disheartening. I was wrong about Hagi, Franconp, and possibly Makai too (but I'm still not sure about that one). This sucks.

 

[Swamped]

Also, I'm guessing no lynch is still an option, and i know that even though we on GAF discourage it, it might be a valid thing to do today if we believe both are Hope.

 

[Makai]

Also, I'm guessing no lynch is still an option, and i know that even though we on GAF discourage it, it might be a valid thing to do today if we believe both are Hope.

Not an option.

 

[Barrylocke]

Also, I'm guessing no lynch is still an option, and i know that even though we on GAF discourage it, it might be a valid thing to do today if we believe both are Hope.

Today, someone HAS to be punished between kgtrep and Crab.

 

[Swamped]

Not an option.

Today, someone HAS to be punished between kgtrep and Crab.

Yep, i just reread the start of the day phase again. Thanks.