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[Christina Mackenzie]

UNVOTE

 

[Muffin1611]

The neutral is a bit of a ticking time bomb situation. We don't know when they'll ignite, and who they'll take out. So they are a very dangerous threat to town, especially in the later game, but after I ran the numbers, it's clear that they still aren't the bigger threat to town than mafia, who have several team members that need to be taken care of in order for that threat to dissipate, versus one member of the neutral group.

I hate having to constantly bring this stuff up, because I'm looking like the neutral's best friend, and they're probably getting a crack out of me doing this, but when I see discussion focus on the threat of neutral over scum, I feel like we're focusing on the wrong thing.

Muffin, I feel like you're trying to misdirect the conversation softly through some of your posts. Sawneeks did a great analysis up above that I'm in agreement with.

That put you on my short list for scum picks, but your pressure vote on me with little time left in the day is sealing the deal for me.

This is what I'm talking about. Incredibly vague justifications ("I agree with Sawneeks" "You're misdirecting on the neutral")

How am I misdirecting on the neutral? The biggest part of me talking about the neutral was mostly me asking other people if I understood their summaries and calculations on the neutral correctly. It's not like I made a huge thing about it, and I don't see how you'd come to that conclusion.

To me it looks like you threw that "misdirection" line a few pages back out there to make it seem like you're on to something others aren't, and now coming up with what you meant after the fact.

 

[Muffin1611]

No love for sawneeks?

Sawneeks made a few good posts, but I'm not entirely convinced on her, somewhere between neutral and slightly townie for me I guess, but not so much that I would go out of my way to mention it.

Also I'm worrying about my read on monkey a bit. I worry that I'm just liking her general playstyle and putting her down as townie for it, when she might act very similar as scum.

Are there any games you were scum in before, monkey?

 

[hey_monkey]

I have never been scum in GAFia outside of live mafia.

 

[Muffin1611]

I have never been scum in GAFia outside of live mafia.

Welp, there goes my chance to look for differences in play that ScumMonkey might have.

 

[hey_monkey]

The only difference here is that I'm pretty frustrated with the relative silence.

 

[oreomunsta]

This is what I'm talking about. Incredibly vague justifications ("I agree with Sawneeks" "You're misdirecting on the neutral")

How am I misdirecting on the neutral? The biggest part of me talking about the neutral was mostly me asking other people if I understood their summaries and calculations on the neutral correctly. It's not like I made a huge thing about it, and I don't see how you'd come to that conclusion.

To me it looks like you threw that "misdirection" line a few pages back out there to make it seem like you're on to something others aren't, and now coming up with what you meant after the fact.

Okay well how can I make this more clear for you? I'll cooperate in what ways I can. Creating a post history like Sawneeks's, however, isn't feasible for me as I'm on mobile and a little busy today, so I pointed to their summary

The only difference here is that I'm pretty frustrated with the relative silence.

This is definitely the quietest Gafia game I've been in so far. When oreo is hitting the minimum post count regularly, something is wrong

 

[Lord of Castamere]

The problem I have with voting Muffin is that while he's not taking a hard stance( that's pretty normal right now though, like Oreo who just slapped a vote on muffin), but he's been active today. Discussing and arguing.

Someone explain why I should vote muffin over someone else?

 

[Muffin1611]

Okay well how can I make this more clear for you? I'll cooperate in what ways I can. Creating a post history like Sawneeks's, however, isn't feasible for me as I'm on mobile and a little busy today, so I pointed to their summary

I'm not saying that you have to do lengthy post histories.

I'm saying that you didn't show me (and I don't think that you can) how I specifically am shifting focus on the neutral and away from discussions about who acts scummy or not. I'm pretty sure that there are several people who discussed the neutral more than me, which I also don't necessarily see as something scummy depending on how it's done.

So the fact that you're saying this doesn't really convince me that your supposed observations on neutral discussions are a genuine concern to you. It just looks like you were searching for a reason others haven't mentioned to make people look scummy. And as soon as you were pressed on it you couldn't clarify.

 

[Christina Mackenzie]

VOTE: StanleyPalmtree

Going back to my initial vote.

 

[nin1000]

...but okay, sorry for having a life

 

[hey_monkey]

VOTE: StanleyPalmtree

Going back to my initial vote.

Echoing LoC: why should I vote for Stan over anyone else?

 

[hey_monkey]

Can we get a count for the new page?

 

[rac]

Can we get a count for the new page?

looks like everyones still at 2

repeat of d1

 

[Lord of Castamere]

If the vote stayed tied, I'll switch to CB. I don't really trust anyone on the block right now, but I like the people voting for CB more than the people voting for the others, if that makes any sense.

 

[Trigger]

looks like everyones still at 2

repeat of d1

It's crazy how we're back at the same set up as the previous day.

 

[rac]

It's crazy how we're back at the same set up as the previous day.

so you gonna jump back on stanley?

 

[Trigger]

I haven't felt good about Stan for a while now. Corn has fallen flat for me with some pretty weak analysis, but I feel like Stan has been pretty flippant with his posting and contributions. I feel like the latter is more harmful than the former. Muffin is a town read for me right now, and I'm neutral on Oreo. I'm feeling pretty good on Hey_Monkey and LoC. Since we still have time, I'm going to look back at the last page before I drop a vote.

 

[Sawneeks]

good morning friends, give me a minute to read and get some responses going.

I was too busy going to an event where grown men fight each other on top of a box with ropes around it for our entertainment, but okay, sorry for having a life

Did you also go to a wrestling event?? I was at WWE Raw on Monday. o:

 

[hey_monkey]

I haven't felt good about Stan for a while now. Corn has fallen flat for me with some pretty weak analysis, but I feel like Stan has been pretty flippant with his posting and contributions.

I see where you're coming from, and Stan is pretty flip but I disagree about your conclusion. CornBurrito is clearly not reading but Stan is just stanning. I might jump on Stan on d3 or d4 but to me it's not conclusive at this point.

Am I alone in feeling iffy on Verelios? I don't see that getting traction today but I'd love to discuss my big post above.

 

[Sawneeks]

If I die tonight that's ok but if the heat will become more and more I will of course try to defend myself.

This will be seen as an omgus vote but between all the other players I am most happy with this one leaving the camp

Vote: kitsunelaine

The matter of the fact that she did not even bother to fix that vote gives me enough reason for now to see her go.

Vote: CornBurrito

omgus and all that

voting for me for being inactive and being inactive

comes in to make a few posts witch was followed up by a lord read list that puts inactives as town

sawneeks explained that scum like to hide there much more now, but i still have a wired feeling about it

2 OMGUS votes in such a short span on time?? Come on people, we can do better than that. :<

I think nin1000 is tied with sawneeks at the moment with 2 votes? Count tool isn't working so I might be mistaken.

Maybe Muffin1611 panicked and move his vote off at the last minute D1 to avoid lynching his scum buddy nin1000. That's one lead we can choose to pursue.

So from those with the most number of votes at the end of Day 1 (2 votes or more)

Burbeting (2)
Cornburrito (2)
nin1000(2)
Trigger (2)
Fireblend (4)

With both Fireblend and Burbeting are gone, there might be a scum among Cornburrito, nin1000 and Trigger. WIFOM if you think that's why they did in Burbeting. I however think that it's more likely that scum was not among the lynch candidates on Day 1 and decided to spread their votes elsewhere.

I've not seen much from StanleyPalmtree that makes me think he's town. Lots of joke posts between him and nin1000 on Day 1. I could have also gone with kitsunelaine, her last post on Day 1 about not burning the house down comes off like she's trying to attract an investigator.

VOTE: StanleyPalmtree

Getting this sense of deja vu, like how there were multiple candidates tied near the end of the day.

Question, why did you go for Stan when the vast majority of your post throws shade on everyone else who ISN'T Stan? Because it sounds like you were going to go for Kits, Corn, Nin, or Trigger and then suddenly just slapped a vote on him.

The longest post incoming. Vere pushing others for more without giving anything himself was bugging me but I couldn't quite frame why. It helps discussion, right?

Thank you for the analysis post, Monkey.

It does basically reiterate what I felt in my re-read reads list about him: has a lot of scummy posts but then comes in with some really Townie posts too. Interesting that he was accusing me of 'appearing' to be active only to turn around and do the same thing himself with little follow-up.

Would not be against moving there. :x

The problem I have with voting Muffin is that while he's not taking a hard stance( that's pretty normal right now though, like Oreo who just slapped a vote on muffin), but he's been active today. Discussing and arguing.

Someone explain why I should vote muffin over someone else?

All those posts I listed were about 90% of what he had done just this Day Phase alone. Lots of talk and no pushes, it's only now that he's in the limelight that he comes in and defends himself and is talking more.

Personally I think he's '''contributing''' enough to look active and engaged but there isn't much going on under the surface.

 

[hey_monkey]

Question, why did you go for Stan when the vast majority of your post throws shade on everyone else who ISN'T Stan? Because it sounds like you were going to go for Kits, Corn, Nin, or Trigger and then suddenly just slapped a vote on him.

The continual votes on Stan in general kind of puzzle me. Of everyone in the game right now... why Stan?

 

[Muffin1611]

My read on Stan is also completely null tbh. I don't see a reason to vote him.

Except you take the fact that he's not really out there as reason to vote him, but then again, many people fall under that category right now.

 

[Sawneeks]

So, doesn't look like No Lynch is happening :/ those of us who are on board with it didn't get a majority, so we'll be losing a day if another town gets lynched.

I'm perfectly aware that I'm voting against someone who voted on me for the second day in a row, but at least you're on my short list, Muffin

Vote: Muffin1611

As for your post!

The neutral is a bit of a ticking time bomb situation. We don't know when they'll ignite, and who they'll take out. So they are a very dangerous threat to town, especially in the later game, but after I ran the numbers, it's clear that they still aren't the bigger threat to town than mafia, who have several team members that need to be taken care of in order for that threat to dissipate, versus one member of the neutral group.

I hate having to constantly bring this stuff up, because I'm looking like the neutral's best friend, and they're probably getting a crack out of me doing this, but when I see discussion focus on the threat of neutral over scum, I feel like we're focusing on the wrong thing.

Muffin, I feel like you're trying to misdirect the conversation softly through some of your posts. Sawneeks did a great analysis up above that I'm in agreement with.

That put you on my short list for scum picks, but your pressure vote on me with little time left in the day is sealing the deal for me.

Also not a huge fan of the OMGUS vote again here.

and I don't get how Muffin is doing that. Not pushing anything sure, but I don't see the misdirection.

 

[nin1000]

Day 2 will end with a silent fart again.

 

[Sawneeks]

Day 2 will end with a silent fart again.

Monkey and I are willing to discuss other candidates but no one is talking and are just sitting on OMGUS votes. :<

Why still on Kits over anyone else, Nin? Why not push for her more if you think she is Scum.

 

[Trigger]

I see where you're coming from, and Stan is pretty flip but I disagree about your conclusion. CornBurrito is clearly not reading but Stan is just stanning. I might jump on Stan on d3 or d4 but to me it's not conclusive at this point.

Am I alone in feeling iffy on Verelios? I don't see that getting traction today but I'd love to discuss my big post above.

I'm not fully decided on Verelios. Our back and forth felt genuine, but you've got a point on his prods and lack of scum hunting.

Personally I think he's '''contributing''' enough to look active and engaged but there isn't much going on under the surface.

This is a possibility. My gut can't differentiate between this being the play of a reactive scummy player or just a shy townie. It's easier to defend yourself than to be proactive and accuse other players. Sometimes I think he's just not very confrontational.

 

[nin1000]

Why still on Kits over anyone else, Nin? Why not push for her more if you think she is Scum.

She seems to be fhe exact same person as in LB2 and she was Scum there. Strong scum vibes on that part aswell her lack of substance in the little posts she made.

When called out she pulled the rl card, which is of course viable but not an excuse for being a complete non entity.

I feel ok about you and &#128053; but that does not mean shit since both of you are great players in my eyes who can fool anyone.

Who i want to see gone ogher than kits?

Dont know but will make a follow up post

 

[Verelios]

Then we're still in the realm of my four scenarios I couldn't confidently factor in the actions of doctor and cop

We've got Burb, and that's about it, I'd say :/

Gotta be wary of the WIFOM, but essentially I see two possibilities:

1. Some scummy thought Burb was getting close to home, so they voted Burb
2. Scum thought that by taking Burb out, Town then turns on those who weren't too keen on Burb on D1

But what isn't excluded is sharing. If one scum puts in a night vote, then the other scum are more likely to incline that way, than vote differently and cause a tie that gets no night kill

Hey squid, when it states no Anti-Town eliminated, that includes the neutral doesn't it?

Until I get an answer, I'm going to have to operate on the assumption that neutral is still out there, and has acted.

So before we go too far into Burb's death (I'll miss Bear-senpai ;~; ), we need to decide whether we go the route of lynch or no lynch!

I think we're still in the realm where my analyses are valid, so I'll bring up the scenarios we could be living between:









So, at minimum, if we decide to lynch today, Town will be going down a route where we only have 4 more days left.

If we move off to lynching only on odd days, we'll buy ourselves one more day. (I'm ignoring the last note I made for Scenario 6 b/c there's a lot of conditions that need to be met for that to happen).

I'm of the opinion that we don't lynch today, and save it unitl tomorrow. We need to be in accordance with this, because without a majority, "No Lynch" votes are totally wasted.

Do we know they don't have a scumchat? They could still have a chat where they see each other's votes and input actions, but can't use it for anything else

Yup, definitely agree that a No Lynch needs to be turbo'd if we are on board with it



I did make it hopefully clear enough, though, that the paths I highlighted were worst case scenarios, and so if any of your points (except for 1.) above happen, then that pushes the odds towards town's favour.

For the arsonist, it says they can either use Burrow or Ignite. Doesn't that mean that they can't hit every single night?

Here's why I think we're confused about the arsonist



Took the liberty to highlight and bold the "or"

Some mechanics thoughts and more math on the game. Appreciated, weirdly scarce of anything else, but appreciate the math

Yeah, but you usually have the previous day's flip to go off, too.

In this game, we don't have the luxury of looking back on flips from town lynches with a confimation of whether town got it wrong or right. Basically, town gafia will town gafia harder than we normally do

I've shared my math, so hopefully no one still wonders why I'm doing this, but I'm going to push for the turbo.

Vote: No Lynch

Push for No lynch turbo, adequate reason that we wouldn't get anything done regardless if it's a no lynch day but doesn't seem very interested in doing much else but math in the first place.

Hmmm I have a strong suspicion that mafia isn't as quiet as we think they might be, so lynching "dead weight" isn't a very good way to go.

There are a few people that I scum read, but it'd be more intuitive guesses, since I don't have time to go through post histories.

...I legit believe he made his list piggybacking off of the Page's current discussion. Also, no time for post analysis but more than enough time to create a probability line? Ok.

Here's my short list for scum reads:

kits
Muffin
Verelios

Gut reads, doesn't elaborate on what feelings he has.

Sorry Muffin to be fair, these are just who I would guess if I were to say right now, so I don't think anyone should put much weight behind this list.

They're also not necessarily related to neutral talk. I just pitched in on the neutral because some people were acting as if it was a mystery and good enough reason to throw out all the numbers some of us worked on, where we can understand the limits of what neutral can or can't do

I mean, usually when someone is making a guess they're inferring from information they've seen or how they've felt. Oreo doesn't convey any of this, he's doing the bare minimum to make sure he can plop a vote down later on and say 'See, See, I did have suspicions beforehand so my vote is supported'.

Right.

Vote: Oreomunsta

 

[nin1000]

The tough thing about this game so far is the passive play of everyone, which makes creating reads list so much harder, hence my way of playing to at least get some kind of reaction out of them.

 

[rac]

so this is probably worthless info but since im uneasy with the vote ending this way with such a big split

these are people that currently have 0 votes on them
isaacnukem
verelios
Trigger
flatearthpandas
Christina Mackenzie
hey_monkey
LordOfCastamere
rac

 

[Trigger]

The continual votes on Stan in general kind of puzzle me. Of everyone in the game right now... why Stan?

It's an issue of his play style coming across scummy, I think. He's seemingly tossing out votes and not very interested in the game. He's an easy option.

 

[hey_monkey]

I could vote for kitsunelaine. Another who's just not doing much - but I don't see the forced attempts at activity in LB2 so I don't see her acting the same.

 

[Verelios]

The tough thing about this game so far is the passive play of everyone, which makes creating reads list so much harder, hence my way of playing to at least get some kind of reaction out of them.

When you're trying to get a reaction wouldn't you usually have a relevant topic to discuss? Was anything of the such done?

 

[Muffin1611]

A vote count would be appreciated.

 

[Sawneeks]

This is a possibility. My gut can't differentiate between this being the play of a reactive scummy player or just a shy townie. It's easier to defend yourself than to be proactive and accuse other players. Sometimes I think he's just not very confrontational.

That's possible but I feel like there would be a difference between confrontational and just not solving the game and Muffin edges over into the latter category.

She seems to be fhe exact same person as in LB2 and she was Scum there. Strong scum vibes on that part aswell her lack of substance in the little posts she made.

When called out she pulled the rl card, which is of course viable but not an excuse for being a complete non entity.

I feel ok about you and &#128053; but that does not mean shit since both of you are great players in my eyes who can fool anyone.

Who i want to see gone ogher than kits?

Dont know but will make a follow up post

And that's where I guess we disagree. :<

I'm not seeing LB2 Kits here, a quiet Kits sure, but not a Scummy one.

would like a follow up on others even if it's just a little bit.

It's an issue of his play style coming across scummy, I think. He's seemingly tossing out votes and not very interested in the game. He's an easy option.

tbh that's how I feel about the Nin and CornBro votes too - they feel too easy.

 

[nin1000]

When you're trying to get a reaction wouldn't you usually have a relevant topic to discuss? Was anything of the such done?

Relevant topic is somethig subjective.

I dont know, was it ?

 

[Muffin1611]

@Verelios, I think your vote isn't picked up by the voting tool, since you spelled the first letter in capital.

 

[hey_monkey]

tbh that's how I feel about the Nin and CornBro votes too - they feel too easy.

I have very strong feelings about CornBurrito. Mine's not an easy vote.

 

[Muffin1611]

^Nvm lol, suddenly it's counted

 

[rac]

so this is probably worthless info but since im uneasy with the vote ending this way with such a big split

these are people that currently have 0 votes on them
isaacnukem
verelios
Trigger
flatearthpandas
Christina Mackenzie
hey_monkey
LordOfCastamere
rac

for parity heres a list of people who ended d1 with 0 votes

Muffin1611
isaacnukem
verelios
kitsunelaine
oreomunsta
flatearthpandas
Christina Mackenzie
hey_monkey
LordOfCastamere

sorry if this is inaccurate in any way

 

[Muffin1611]

Oreo lynch seems to lead right now with 3.

 

[Sawneeks]

Vote count would be appreciated

I have very strong feelings about CornBurrito. Mine's not an easy vote.

I know your's, and other's, feel strongly about him but I can't see it. He just hasn't been around and keeps making mistakes and that's really it, a target to easily gravitate to. I have trouble reading that strongly and it just feels like a 'you keep messing up, knock it off' and not really a 'you're scum' lynch.

 

[oreomunsta]

Oreo lynch seems to lead right now with 3.

Just tuning in and noticing that

 

[Muffin1611]

Are we really going to end the day with spread out votes and barely a plurality for somebody again? Time to prioritize between likely lynch candidates.

This looks like a perfect setup for another boring, uninformative and silent D3.

 

[Trigger]

for parity heres a list of people who ended d1 with 0 votes

Muffin1611
isaacnukem
verelios
kitsunelaine
oreomunsta
flatearthpandas
Christina Mackenzie
hey_monkey
LordOfCastamere

sorry if this is inaccurate in any way

Do you think there's anything noteworthy about that?

 

[hey_monkey]

I do not trust the votes on oreomunsta, who has been scum before and didn't play this way, and half the people I suspect are all together on that vote.

 

[Muffin1611]

I do not trust the votes on oreomunsta, who has been scum before and didn't play this way, and half the people I suspect are all together on that vote.

I seem to be getting lots of supposed suspicion for "not being aggressive/confrontational" enough lately when half the game is way more silent than I am.

Looks like an easy excuse.

 

[Sawneeks]

I do not trust the votes on oreomunsta, who has been scum before and didn't play this way, and half the people I suspect are all together on that vote.

tbh this is why I haven't jumped over yet despite really not trusting Oreo right now. I don't like that both Muffin AND Vere are there, but at the same time I don't think anyone is biting on a Muffin lynch today.

 

[nin1000]

Not even gonna defend yourself oreo?