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[Aaron Strife]

NH House Belknap-9

(D) Charlie St. Clair - 1,267 56%
(R) Steven Whalley - 1,009 44%

Source: https://twitter.com/jdistaso/status/907763234442280961

Trump won this district 55-39 last year.

This makes the fifth special election flip for Democrats this year, after picking up a State Assembly seat in New York, another State House seat in New Hampshire, and a State House seat and State Senate seat in Oklahoma.

Edit: Make that six. With one precinct remaining, Jacob Rosencrants (D) has a 939 vote lead over Darin Chambers (R) in the special election for Oklahoma's 46th House district.

https://www.ok.gov/elections/support/ok_results_seb.html

This seat went 52-41 for Trump and 60-40 for Romney.

 

[BronsonLee]

YOINK

 

[ShadowSwordmaster]

Damn.

 

[jerry113]

So the lesson is: stop hyping up the special elections, avoid triggering GOP propaganda machine.

 

[CazTGG]

So this is that Trump pivot i've heard so much about.

So the lesson is: stop hyping up the special elections, avoid triggering GOP propaganda machine.

So what you're saying is Dems will take that Alabama seat this December?

 

[Beartruck]

So the lesson is: stop hyping up the special elections, avoid triggering GOP propaganda machine.

Yup. You win a midterm race by making the other side not give a shit.

 

[Common Knowledge]

So the lesson is: stop hyping up the special elections, avoid triggering GOP propaganda machine.

Ha ha yeah it seems the less people pay attention to these things, the more it works out in the Democrats' favor.

 

[OrangeGrayBlue]

How many special elections have republicans won this year?

 

[DrForester]

How many special elections have republicans won this year?

All the national ones I think.

 

[Trickster]

How many special elections have republicans won this year?

I'd say the more relevant question is how many have they flipped

 

[Zolo]

So the lesson is: stop hyping up the special elections, avoid triggering GOP propaganda machine.

Sounds like it.

 

[Steeped in a Sea of Games]

New Hampshire on trump:

 

[ShadowSwordmaster]

So the lesson is: stop hyping up the special elections, avoid triggering GOP propaganda machine.

Indeed.

 

[balladofwindfishes]

All the national ones I think.

I don't believe the Republicans have turned any D->R in a federal special election

I'd say the more relevant question is how many have they flipped

It is, but gotta keep the pessimism quota going because of this and that and reasons

 

[fluffydelusions]

drug infested den

-Trump

 

[kirblar]

So the lesson is: stop hyping up the special elections, avoid triggering GOP propaganda machine.

Yes. Same reason you don't want to be the obvious Presidential candidate 4 years in advance on the Dems side. Nationalizing races is bad for Dems.

There is an exception - in Jungle Primaries w/ multiple GOP contenders (like Ossoff), we need to push hard to win on the first ballot, because they'll fall in line on the second.

 

[FyreWulff]

So the lesson is: stop hyping up the special elections, avoid triggering GOP propaganda machine.

But each time they win one it draws their attention again, so

 

[Aaron Strife]

I'd say the more relevant question is how many have they flipped

There was a D-held House seat in Louisiana that went uncontested by the Democrats in March. Trump won 77% of the vote there so I'm guessing it was one of those situations where the incumbent had just been there for a billion years and it stopped being competitive when he retired (appointed for a post by the Dem governor).

 

[OrangeGrayBlue]

It is, but gotta keep the pessimism quota going because of this and that and reasons

I asked the question as a matter of not knowing the answer, and it's worded about as neutrally as possible. The only way to derive pessimism from it is by feeling that the answer to the question merits cynicism. I'm merely curious to know how many they've won in comparison.

 

[Aaron Strife]

We might be in for a twofer today: in Oklahoma, Jacob Rosencrants (Democrat) leads Darin Chambers (Republican) by 607 votes for a House seat with six precincts remaining.

https://www.ok.gov/elections/support/ok_results_seb.html

There's also a special election in the Mississippi House worth watching, as if the Democrat wins the GOP will lose their supermajority. Sounds like the DLCC (Democratic campaign arm for legislative seats) has gone all-in on this one.

http://m.wdam.com/wdam/pm_/contentdetail.htm?contentguid=od:0f4yI2Ni

 

[Steejee]

Yes. Same reason you don't want to be the obvious Presidential candidate 4 years in advance on the Dems side. Nationalizing races is bad for Dems.

There is an exception - in Jungle Primaries w/ multiple GOP contenders (like Ossoff), we need to push hard to win on the first ballot, because they'll fall in line on the second.

Need like 20 Dems to announce they're going to run for president in 2020, then have them all drop out mid 2019 and the actual 5-10 candidates announce they're running.

 

[Electric Eye]

So the lesson is: stop hyping up the special elections, avoid triggering GOP propaganda machine.

The first special elections were still riding on "he's new give him a bit more time" bs, A LOT has happened since those special elections and it's only been a few months so that ship has long sailed and sunk in nazi/kkk flames.

 

[Trigonometrize.]

It is, but gotta keep the pessimism quota going because of this and that and reasons

Optimism in my experience doesn't seem to be a virtue in terms of elections. It seems to me like you want your base to help you out as if you're behind at all times.

 

[sangreal]

So the lesson is: stop hyping up the special elections, avoid triggering GOP propaganda machine.

Star legislature elections are a totally different animal, though it's great to see democrats taking them seriously. At least the voters. It would actually be nice to get some hype around state seats

 

[Sanjuro]

Yay NH!

 

[Zukkoyaki]

How can we be irrationally pessimistic if Dems win?

 

[kirblar]

The first special elections were still riding on "he's new give him a bit more time" bs, A LOT has happened since those special elections and it's only been a few months so that ship has long sailed and sunk in nazi/kkk flames.

Prior to wave elections in '94 and '06, the GOP/Dems (respectively) lost a lot of one-off federal elections in the year prior. Those early seats are normally open because they're supposed to be safe, and it's a bad idea to use them to read into expected performance 18-21 months before an election.

 

[Confused101]

All precincts now reporting in OK.

https://www.ok.gov/elections/support/ok_results_seb.html

Democrat win. 60-40.

 

[Loudninja]

Very nice.

 

[LOCK]

1 step at a time.

 

[Widdle Puppy]

If it ain't 2018 I ain't gonna hold my breath. 2016 still feels fresh and I ain't about celebrating beforehand anymore.

 

[zelas]

I'd say the more relevant question is how many have they flipped

Unfortunately none of this is relevant (relatively). There arent enough NH special elections (4 left) for Ds to make up the 50 seat gap in the NH house (170-220 before today). Democrats have actually lost 3 votes since 2016.


Also it seems some here are actually talking about the US House. When it comes to flipping there, Dems are 0-4 with one republican held seat left. So far Dems have only won the seat the already held. So far we're dropping the ball with midterms turnout once again.

 

[Aaron Strife]

Unfortunately none of this is relevant (relatively). There arent enough NH special elections (4 left) for Ds to make up the 50 seat gap in the NH house (170-220 before today). Democrats have actually lost 3 votes since 2016.


Also it seems some here are actually talking about the US House. When it comes to flipping there, Dems are 0-4 with one republican held seat left. So far Dems have only won the seat the already held. So far we're dropping the ball with midterms turnout once again.

We came much closer in all of those seats than we ever did in 2016. I don't know how the other seats compare but in Montana, the Democrat captured almost 100% of Hillary's raw vote total whereas the Republican only won 2/3rds of what Trump got.

The disappointment comes from assuming that these were competitive swing districts and they absolutely were not. Not even Trump is stupid enough to poach House Republicans from vulnerable seats. No, he took Republicans from districts he carried by 20-30 points. The only exception was GA-6 which ended up being highly nationalized and predictably fell in line with the 2016 presidential results, still a large improvement over the 2016 House race or Romney winning the district by double digits.

These results show New Hampshire's State House is very likely to flip blue next year. Winning 25 seats is hardly a daunting task for a state with districts of 3,000 people each, that chamber in particular is subject to large swings. Our seat count is lower now than it was after the election only because there are frequent vacancies - we've picked up 2 GOP-held seats.

I'm not saying winning next year will be easy, but if you take any of these special election results as a bad sign you are being needlessly pessimistic.

Edit: On average Democrats have been beating Hillary's 2016 spread by 13 percent. Obama's 2012 spread by 9.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1C2MVeM2K7WgqmJw5RCQbWyTo2u73CX1pI8zw_G-7BJo/htmlview#gid=0

That would be more than enough to flip the House and likely save our vulnerable Senate seats, to say nothing of the numerous state legislative seats we've lost since 2008.