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[sonycowboy]

Somehow these number just don't seem to add up. I guess it's saying the "upper ceiling for all of the systems. But, if the Xbox360 gets 40% of the market, then they

a) Would likely win this next generation (Nintendo would have to get less than 20% for Sony to tie or take the lead) and

b) Would be selling ~100M consoles

Can someone find the blog on Zdnet they're talking about?

http://www.gamesindustry.biz/content_page.php?aid=9622

Illustration
Rob Fahey 15:16 20/06/2005

Sony faces tough battle for market share in the next-gen, says research firm

Market research firm DFC Intelligence has announced a number of predictions for the next-generation console battle, revealing that it expects Sony's grip on the market to weaken - with PS3 set to win only 50 per cent market share at best.

At present, the PlayStation 2 controls around 70 per cent of the global console market, while the Xbox and GameCube have around 15 per cent each; but DFC expects Sony's rivals to make headway over the coming years.

Its "best case scenario" figures for all three consoles show the PlayStation 3 taking 50 per cent market share at best, while Microsoft's Xbox 360 stands to take a maximum of 40 per cent share, and the Nintendo Revolution can hope for no more than 35 per cent.

The figures were reported in an official blog on technology website ZDNet, and are taken from a recent report published by DFC Intelligence.

Another recent prediction from DFC suggests that the global videogames industry will be worth $41.49 billion by 2009, incorporating $31.6 billion of revenue from traditional games and game hardware, along with $9.8 billion from online game revenues.

 

[DarienA]

I'm not the best math person around but...

the PlayStation 3 taking 50 per cent market share at best,
Microsoft's Xbox 360 stands to take a maximum of 40 per cent share
the Nintendo Revolution can hope for no more than 35 per cent.

.....isn't that just a wee bit over 100?

 

[sonycowboy]

Found the article by DFC. It's pretty long.

http://www.dfcint.com/game_article/may05article.html

 

[Ranger X]

My prediction is 60-25-15 after 3 years. 60 being Sony and 15 being Nintendo.

You can record this prediction for later use.

 

[sonycowboy]

I'm not the best math person around but...

the PlayStation 3 taking 50 per cent market share at best,
Microsoft's Xbox 360 stands to take a maximum of 40 per cent share
the Nintendo Revolution can hope for no more than 35 per cent.

.....isn't that just a wee bit over 100?

explanation

Obviously these scenarios are mutually exclusive, the best case scenario for the 360 is definitely not the best case scenario for the PS3 or Revolution and vice versa.

and BTW,

this article is replete with fun quotes you can take out of context to piss off any fanboy you wish

 

[ziran]

i'm assuming they're talking about maximum share of each platform next gen.

 

[Rocket9]

I'm not the best math person around but...

the PlayStation 3 taking 50 per cent market share at best,
Microsoft's Xbox 360 stands to take a maximum of 40 per cent share
the Nintendo Revolution can hope for no more than 35 per cent.

.....isn't that just a wee bit over 100?

Those are best case scenario for all 3. Whatever happens 1 or more will have to underperform

 

[ziran]

i think a key issue is going to be the value of gta next gen. can it dominate again?

 

[DarienA]

i think a key issue is going to be the value of gta next gen. can it dominate again?

I doubt it.. I think next gen will see a new title stand up and take the crown... that's really how it's been each gen for the most part.

 

[ziran]

I doubt it.. I think next gen will see a new title stand up and take the crown... that's really how it's been each gen for the most part.

i agree.

that said 360 has some hitters, in terms of marketable games. much will depend on what new/re-invented franchises ps3 gets.

 

[sonycowboy]

i think a key issue is going to be the value of gta next gen. can it dominate again?

most likely - no

Not like this gen anyway. It's so far and away the top franchise this generation, it's not even funny. I think they're close to 40M units sold in 4 1/2 years worldwide.

 

[robertsan21]

sony wont lose any % market share!

stupid analyst do they really think MS stands a chance against sony :lol :lol :lol

 

[OptimusPrime]

Sony's share can only go down.......

 

[ziran]

how much 'brand' does sony have? and how much can xbox360 take away?

there has been a huge increase in the popularity of the console fps this gen, and xbox360 has the genre pretty much locked. i'm sure this will be a big draw for 360, plus good online certain to be a bigger factor next gen.

like many have said, this is going to be sony's war to lose.

 

[Ranger X]

most likely - no

Not like this gen anyway. It's so far and away the top franchise this generation, it's not even funny. I think they're close to 40M units sold in 4 1/2 years worldwide.

But if Rockstar don't mess up, GTA is one of the most opened game and this game could be the one that benefits the most from next-gen. I think it can have a huge impact again.

 

[Borys]

65-20-15, Ameryka, FUCK YEAH!
70-15-15 rest of the world.

 

[mrklaw]

how much 'brand' does sony have? and how much can xbox360 take away?

there has been a huge increase in the popularity of the console fps this gen, and xbox360 has the genre pretty much locked. i'm sure this will be a big draw for 360, plus good online certain to be a bigger factor next gen.

like many have said, this is going to be sony's war to lose.

Online is big for us, but only 2 million LIVE subscribers is nothing in the overall scheme of things.

X360 will live or die on its community and digital hub. Either it will be an amazing success and really attract new people etc, or no-one really wants to do all that and it will flop.

 

[Elios83]

What happens if someone doesn't reach its 'at best' market share?
The market will involve or the other competitors will overcome their at best prediction thus making this article completely stupid?

 

[Sqrt_minus_one]

See post on page 2

 

[sohka88]

I don't understand people at all.... How their mind works. How does a console sell 20 million an be a success and also be expected to be fighting for the top spot next gen while another sells 19 million and be all but dead and not even counted next gen.... I always wondered.

I also Wonder how Xbox will gain on Sony without Japan, without having the best hardware, or all the games sony has? How is MS gonna gain in EU another sony land? I don't see it.

 

[DarienA]

I don't understand people at all.... How their mind works. How does a console sell 20 million an be a success and also be expected to be fighting for the top spot next gen while another sells 19 million and be all but dead and not even counted next gen.... I always wondered.

I also Wonder how Xbox will gain on Sony without Japan, without having the best hardware, or all the games sony has? How is MS gonna gain in EU another sony land? I don't see it.

Pick:
Online gaming is much more important next gen! Xbox Live Silver being free will create much more interest in the pay service which will create much more interest in the Xbox 360. Marketplace and the Arcade section will appeal to more than just the hardcore gamer.

MS has stronger developer support next gen, while Sony has lost developer support or developr "favor".

Xbox software sales are rising will PS2 sales are stagnant or falling. This indicates a shift.



I think those are some of the reasons I've seen mentioned...

 

[milanbaros]

I don't understand people at all.... How their mind works. How does a console sell 20 million an be a success and also be expected to be fighting for the top spot next gen while another sells 19 million and be all but dead and not even counted next gen.... I always wondered.

I think it is because Nintendo have declined each generation so they assume thats what will happen next, and a smaller share than 15% isn't really that important. I also think its because it is assumed Microsoft will increase so therefore Nintendo would be outright last.

I don't think any console will sell less than the current gen because even though I predict Sony's share to fall, overall hdw sales will be up.

I think it will finish like this:

NA - Sony - 45%, Microsoft - 35%, Nintendo - 20%.

World - Sony - 60%, Microsoft - 30%, Nintendo - 10%.

 

[jedimike]

In the US, Xbox 360 will be ahead of Sony... and I don't mean just the first 12 months. I don't think it will because MS has superior games or better hardware. It will be because Americans are essentially stupid. Americans would rather see headlines of Michael Jackson and Paris Hilton than actually read something that matters. It boils down to marketing. MS has the deepest pockets and knows (or will hire someone who knows) how to sell a product to the masses. Didn't mean to offend here... I've just been digusted lately with the media

I suspect that Sony will have a declining marketshare in other territories as well, but it will be a slight decline of less than 10%.

US = MS 50%; Sony 35%; Nin 15%

Japan & Europe = add 5% each for Nin and MS, subtract 10% from Sony

 

[Excelion]

a) Would likely win this next generation (Nintendo would have to get less than 20% for Sony to tie or take the lead) and

they already have less than 20% this gen. I fail to see how launching last with less powerfull hardware and certainly not the price advantage they had this gen will help them to gain marketshare.

b) Would be selling ~100M consoles

so 250 millions consoles sold next gen ? aren't you a bit optimistic ?

 

[ziran]

even if people don't use online the option will entice consumers, and xbox360 is pushing it hard, and doing it well.

ps3 will have less marketshare than ps2 imo.

also remember genesis [coming out of master system level success] had big marketshare in NA and europe while it [relatively] struggled in japan.

 

[UbiSoftologist]

But if Rockstar don't mess up, GTA is one of the most opened game and this game could be the one that benefits the most from next-gen. I think it can have a huge impact again.

IAWTP. GTA Online would be the most influential next-gen title.

 

[michael000]

I also Wonder how Xbox will gain on Sony without Japan, without having the best hardware, or all the games sony has? How is MS gonna gain in EU another sony land? I don't see it.

It'll gain because the Xbox in theory should do worlds better this time around in Japan on top of gaining here in the states. The 360 has quite abit of real JP dev support this time around, i wouldn't count it out, especially new studios like Mistwalker which will be making the types of games Japanese gamers prefer.

Personally i'm predicting Sony to edge out MS here in the states by between 5-10% and in JP by 35-40% (a huge improvement over this gen). That US prediction could go the opposite way though and MS could lead by 5-10%. The more i really look at it the 360 is really catered to the average "American" gamer, at least hardware wise. Personally i prefer japanese style games so whoever can bring me more of those will be my system of choice this time around.

 

[HokieJoe]

Here in the States, I predict 55-30-15: Sony-MS-Ninty

 

[thorns]

I'll do my predictions as well
US: 45(MS) 40(Sony) 15(Nintendo)
EU: 50(Sony) 30(MS) 20 (Nintendo)

if rev launches before PS3
JP: 50(Sony) 40(Nintendo) 10(MS)
otherwise
JP: 60(Sony) 30(Nintendo) 10(MS)

I except revolution to do VERY well in japan, my estimates might be even conservative..

 

[Razoric]

As long as the GTA team continues to push more gameplay elements into the game, beef up the graphics significantly, and keep the controversy coming (so the press and gov eat it up like flies on shit) then GTA will continue to be one of the best selling games for years to come. Interest is still at peak levels with San Andreas (the THIRD one on PS2)... it is not going anywhere anytime soon.

 

[sonycowboy]

they already have less than 20% this gen. I fail to see how launching last with less powerfull hardware and certainly not the price advantage they had this gen will help them to gain marketshare.

Almost everything has gone wrong for the Gamecube this generation and they've still managed to essentailly match Xbox sales worldwide. I, myself, don't expect them to fail like this again and expect them to provide a real alternative to PS3/Xbox360 gaming. If they screw up again, though, I'd agree that they'll fall even further.

so 250 millions consoles sold next gen ? aren't you a bit optimistic ?

I was being a bit hyperbolic.


However, I do expect this generation to go higher than 180M consoles, in then end. And I'd expect next gen to be 200M+.

This generation will be:

130M+ Playstation 2
25M+ XBox
25M+ Gamecube
-------------------------
180M+ Systems

And that's not even including the Dreacast in this generation.

 

[sol5377]

38 - 43 - 19
MS - Sony - Nintendo

bookmark it.

 

[Sqrt_minus_one]

Pick:
Online gaming is much more important next gen! Xbox Live Silver being free will create much more interest in the pay service which will create much more interest in the Xbox 360. Marketplace and the Arcade section will appeal to more than just the hardcore gamer.

MS has stronger developer support next gen, while Sony has lost developer support or developr "favor".

Xbox software sales are rising will PS2 sales are stagnant or falling. This indicates a shift.



I think those are some of the reasons I've seen mentioned...

Was it mentioned wether free weekends would be for all games or just for certain games on certain weekends. I see to remember a quate which indicated certain games only.

Razoric: I disagree with the avatar.

 

[Agent Icebeezy]

I love armchair analysts with your predictions. Provides Monday morning comedy. :lol

 

[Ranger X]

IAWTP. GTA Online would be the most influential next-gen title.

Not even need to be online pal, not even need.

 

[Agent Icebeezy]

Saint's Row is getting online first. You can do online with GTA with multitheftauto. If Saint's Row does it right, and it THQ markets this right, they will run with the torch.

 

[Flo_Evans]

my prediction:

USA - sony 65% xbox 25% rev 10%

JPN - sony 60% rev 30% xbox 10%

EU - no clue

the 360 will have a nice year to build its library, but without GTA MGS GT or tekken. I also predict most people that buy a 360 in the 1st year will also buy a PS3 in the 1st year. They make a good point about 'nintendo dads' in the article - I am about that age they are talking about - If I had a kid (thank god I don't yet^^) he would definatly have a rev under the TV. To share with your kid all the classic N games you played over the years all they way up to thier current stuff would be priceless. How big that market segment is remains to be seen.

 

[DarienA]

The 360 has quite abit of real JP dev support this time around, i wouldn't count it out, especially new studios like Mistwalker which will be making the types of games Japanese gamers prefer.

I'm not being funny here... but besides Mistwalker(which definitely could be a huge hit), and FFXI what JP support did MS pick up that they didn't have last gen?

Was it mentioned wether free weekends would be for all games or just for certain games on certain weekends. I see to remember a quate which indicated certain games only.

I haven't seen any clarification of how those free weekends will work or when they are...or... anything... paging Blim?

Saint's Row is getting online first. You can do online with GTA with multitheftauto. If Saint's Row does it right, and it THQ markets this right, they will run with the torch.

Saint's Row needs to do alot more than just go online(which of course will be a good thing), to eclipse GTA:SA... hopefully they will do that.. because simply put there is SO much to do in SA besides the mission stuff... and there's of course all the country side.. the other cities... THQ hasn't given us any glimpse of exactly how big the world in SR is yet...

 

[mrklaw]

Pick:
Online gaming is much more important next gen! Xbox Live Silver being free will create much more interest in the pay service which will create much more interest in the Xbox 360. Marketplace and the Arcade section will appeal to more than just the hardcore gamer.

well 2 million Live subscibers is not exactly what I'd call a success - pretty much hardcore only numbers. And MS have pushed live a lot this gen. I don't know how people assume it'll be massive next time. I guess analysts always assume things will be massive in the next few years - just take a look at any of their 'hockey stick' graphs.

MS has stronger developer support next gen, while Sony has lost developer support or developr "favor".

Sure, MS are talking to devs, but its going to take more than talk to switch publishers from a platform that has so far delivered 190m units to one that has 20m. And its the publishers that have the money.

Xbox software sales are rising will PS2 sales are stagnant or falling. This indicates a shift.

no, it indicates the normal console lifecycle. PS2 has reached its plateau phase, as did the PSOne. Xbox has been out two years less, so its still growing.

In the US, Xbox 360 will be ahead of Sony... and I don't mean just the first 12 months. I don't think it will because MS has superior games or better hardware. It will be because Americans are essentially stupid. Americans would rather see headlines of Michael Jackson and Paris Hilton than actually read something that matters. It boils down to marketing. MS has the deepest pockets and knows (or will hire someone who knows) how to sell a product to the masses. Didn't mean to offend here... I've just been digusted lately with the media

Sony have the Playstation brand. Biggest brand in gaming. Sony sell stuff to people all the time. MS sell nothing to consumers, its all retail/PC manuf. selling. The only (non xbox ads) I've seen from MS are stupid XP and Win98 ads that tell me nothing.

IMO Sony have by far the better marketing. Yes, MS have more cash, but that doesn't equal bigger pockets. Sony are in a financial corner right now, with PS the only thing looking good. They'll do anything to make PS3 a success, and I believe they are simply more hungry than MS. Maybe not more hungry than the Xbox division, but MS ultimately write the cheques. It seems clear that MS want this one to at least show the potential to make money.

 

[Razoric]

Saint's Row needs to do alot more than just go online(which of course will be a good thing), to eclipse GTA:SA... hopefully they will do that.. because simply put there is SO much to do in SA besides the mission stuff... and there's of course all the country side.. the other cities... THQ hasn't given us any glimpse of exactly how big the world in SR is yet...

iirc the Saints Row video with the guy talking in the background said SR's city was the same size as Vice City. :\

SR will be a good tide-me-over for GTA-NEXT but it will not replace it.

 

[Gattsu25]

FOR THE LOVE OF GOD

I must be the only one to 'miss' the per EVERY time i read the thread title

fuck

 

[CrimsonSkies]

Sony - 45%
Microsoft - 35%
Nintendo - 20%

 

[michael000]

I'm not being funny here... but besides Mistwalker(which definitely could be a huge hit), and FFXI what JP support did MS pick up that they didn't have last gen?

Ok i should clarify on what i'm thinking will be the case heh. Yes they'll have pretty much the same support in terms of devs that are signed up to produce games, but call me naive i'm imagining this time around they'll actually be making games lol. I personally see/saw JP dev support for Xbox the way dev teams are currently working on the PSP. They're doing it but they're doing it half ass, no real resources are being sunk to create "hits".

 

[Razoric]

I love armchair analysts with your predictions. Provides Monday morning comedy. :lol

If Saint's Row does it right, and it THQ markets this right, they will run with the torch.

:lol

 

[Deg]

What a load of rubbish. Sony will take something like PS2 again. Hell judging from e3 they gained more interest at MS and Nintendo's expense. :lol Nothing has been demonstrated by MS or Nintendo to show they have a real edge in anyway to result in amarketshare difference.

 

[dorio]

Ask me after I see what first gen titles on all the machines look like on final hardware. If Sony titles look significantly better than 360 ones they should get at least 60% next gen. If 360 titles look comparable to 1st gen ps3 titles then I can see 360 getting 40% since it will be first to market and will be facing sony with 2nd gen titles and maybe Halo3. I'm clueless about Nintendo.

 

[borghe]

IMHO 35% would be huge for nintendo, and IIRC would still beat their market share for this gen. Considering they pretty much drove off every non-Nintendo fan (i.e. someone who just wants a console and isn't a huge nintendo game fan) this gen getting 35% of gamers back next gen would be a pretty amazing feat.

here's to hoping they do it. Even the N64 was known for having some great 3rd party games throughout it's lifespan.. GCN is just dead aside from Nintendo games at this point.

 

[brocke]

I still don't see how 20 million consoles sold by MS is going to magically quadruple.

 

[Amir0x]

Comes down to the quadrafecta in US: Grand Theft Auto, Madden, Halo and Gran Turismo.*

GTA is up in the air. Madden is for both Xbox360 and PS3 (and Rev, likely). Halo is for Microsoft only. Gran Turismo is for Sony only.

So the main award is Grand Theft Auto, in my estimations. If someone can win genuine exclusivity, that'll be the system that gains the bulk of the marketshare in the US (to the tune of 50-35-15). If it's just "timed exclusivity", it'll still be important but marketshare might break even (45-45-10). That's for US.

Comes down to the trifecta in Japan: Final Fantasy, Dragonquest, and Winning Eleven

Final Fantasy seems to be buttered across all three next-gen systems: Microsoft with FFXI, Nintendo with FF:CC... but what will Sony get? If they can secure a true numbered Final Fantasy with exclusivity once more, they're already starting well.

Dragonquest is the big package. Whoever hauls DragonQuest IX will be the guaranteed victor in Japan for next-gen in my opinion. It seems that SquareEnix is intent to put the series on whatever platform has the biggest userbase, so it seems the safebet might be Sony. But I think Revolution has a good shot next-gen, at least in terms of how well it does in Japan. Winning Eleven will also be spread across, so it'll come down to appealing features there or just who has the other two big games. Whichever system gets DQ exclusive numbered game, the breakdown will be 60-30-10.


That's my guesstimate for those two territories. Not sure about Europe, it's volatile and I don't know what franchises pull the big guns.







*Based on sales in US Territories

 

[gofreak]

DFC's predictions pre-this gen:

This report forecasts that the new generation of 128-bit video game systems will have combined U.S. sales of over 50 million by the year 2004. According to David Cole, president of DFC Intelligence, "The new 128-bit systems should have significantly stronger combined sales than the 32/64-bit systems." Overall, DFC forecasts that total U.S. revenue for interactive entertainment will exceed $11 billion by 2002. The report contains a number of different scenarios for industry growth. "We believe that over the next few years consumers will be spending a great deal of money on video and computer games. However, there is still a great deal of uncertainty about exactly which game systems will do well," said Cole. The report claims that the competition between Sony (NYSE: SNE), Nintendo (OTC: NTDOY), Sega (OTC: SEGNY), and Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) will be the most intense competition the industry has ever seen. The Sony PlayStation 2, scheduled for release in October, is forecasted to be the leading system, but it is expected to be a very close race. According to Cole, "The PlayStation 2 is not looking as strong as it was a year ago. It should do well, but Sony may be hard pressed to match the success of the original PlayStation." DFC sees the Nintendo Dolphin and Microsoft X-Box as two very strong competitors, even though neither system is scheduled to come out until 2001. "The key battle for the 128-bit market will probably occur in 2002," said Cole. "With the Dolphin, Nintendo has a chance to once again be the market leader. Microsoft may have no record with video games, but so far with the X-Box they seem to be on the right track." As for the Sega Dreamcast, DFC does not predict the Dreamcast to be a market leader, but claims Sega has a chance to carve out a solid market share. The U.S. Market for Video Games and Interactive Electronic Entertainment contains complete forecasts to the year 2004 for video game hardware and software, PC games, and portable game systems including the Nintendo Game Boy Advance. The report also provides a historical perspective, a discussion of industry business models, an overview of distribution and marketing, and a look at consumer tastes and software genres.

I can't find precise marketshare predictions however. But I'm sure with talk of a "close race" and all those different consoles that might be "carving solid marketshares" or "might become the market leader", they couldn't have predicted much more than 50% for PS2 either

These things are pretty useless, IMO.