Yeah that's the safe bet.
But still, I look at the indie space, where Earthbound and Harvest Moon homages sell millions and make bank, where a whole bunch of other quirky, niche titles do quite well for themselves..... are STGs actually a tier below those in sales potential? Are the development costs a tier above those? I have my doubts.
I wish I had hard numbers. It may well be the case that STGs are niche and unprofitable even in a digital environment..... but I dunno. I have this sneaking suspicion that it hasn't even been put to the test.
I think Japanese companies are notoriously poor at transitioning into this space. STGs were once mainstream AAA titles in the 90s. Failing that they'll retreat into otaku-focused sales. Failing that they'll make mobile titles. Couldn't they have cultivated a larger fanbase on digital platforms? Who knows, because a fully staffed Japanese company in the 2010s isn't of the mindset or culture to be willing to try that out.
I can't believe that STGs were such a staple of gaming in the arcade days, but perform below all the other weird niche titles that are profitable today in the digital landscape. Human nature didn't change that much in what they like to play. It's probably just that the STG publishers were ill-fitted to adapt to these digital formats, and unwilling to play with the prices (despite the increased audience potential on budget digital).
Or are they? (re: Device's efforts and what it could imply about future distribution)