Lord Error
Insane For Sony
Even then, it would only be winning some kind of "subway popularity". I mean, Gameboy brand is unquestionably more 'popular' than iPod, but you don't see older people use them very often.
Does Sony's new PSP threaten Apple's iPod?
- Thread starter pcostabel
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I have to push back on your sales predictions:Amir0x said:
1) You are comparing projected lifetime sales for PSP (allegedly 40M) versus projected YTD sales at the end of 2005 for iPod. How is that a fair comparison?
2) I'd love to hear why you think the PSP sales potential is 40-60M. For one thing, it exists at a MUCH higher price point than the GBA, and there is a natural tension between price and volume. For another thing, it is coming out at a time when the next generation of consoles is about to emerge. Although consumers now might have money to spend on a PSP since they haven't bought a console lately, there will soon be a choice to make between buying a next-gen console, and current-gen tech in a handheld. Given that choice, I think it will tend to limit the amount of PSP sales potential.
cinch: Learn to read. 40,000,000 in its lifetime.
No no. I wasn't saying iPod wouldn't eventually hit 40,000,000. I was just saying, with PSP it's a different market with growth potential that we KNOW is possible due to previous handheld machines. iPod is THE most popular HD based player. We don't really know how far the growth potential is. We know that it has been out for several years and Meryl Lynch says it'll finally hit 20,000,000 by the end of this year. Gaming, we know, has this sort of sales potential beat - PS2 hit 20,000,000 in its first year. GBA has 60,000,000 sold, GB/GBC had... what... 120,000,000+? I mean, this sales potential is vast.
This is the flatest argument ever in the history of mankind. GC was 199 when it came out. PS2 was 299! Guess which sold more! Guess! If you answered "PS2", you're correct! Value is determined by the customer. If the customer determines 250 is a great value for what PSP does, then it's going to sell extremely well. It's that simple. This of course also ignores the obvious factors like guaranteed price drops and such.
Similarly, a handheld market and a console market are slightly different. GBA has sold how many units now? It floated through console launches just fine. There's no doubt one has a factor on the other, but if someone is interested in both eventually they will hop onto it when it becomes attractive (if they think PS3 or Xenon is the priority, they may wait to buy PSP when it's 199 or 149).
There are a lot of factors, but 30,000,000-40,000,000 is a pretty good estimate. Some would say that's even low, but I'm not one for being overly optimistic.
-jinx- said:
No no. I wasn't saying iPod wouldn't eventually hit 40,000,000. I was just saying, with PSP it's a different market with growth potential that we KNOW is possible due to previous handheld machines. iPod is THE most popular HD based player. We don't really know how far the growth potential is. We know that it has been out for several years and Meryl Lynch says it'll finally hit 20,000,000 by the end of this year. Gaming, we know, has this sort of sales potential beat - PS2 hit 20,000,000 in its first year. GBA has 60,000,000 sold, GB/GBC had... what... 120,000,000+? I mean, this sales potential is vast.
-jinx- said:
This is the flatest argument ever in the history of mankind. GC was 199 when it came out. PS2 was 299! Guess which sold more! Guess! If you answered "PS2", you're correct! Value is determined by the customer. If the customer determines 250 is a great value for what PSP does, then it's going to sell extremely well. It's that simple. This of course also ignores the obvious factors like guaranteed price drops and such.
Similarly, a handheld market and a console market are slightly different. GBA has sold how many units now? It floated through console launches just fine. There's no doubt one has a factor on the other, but if someone is interested in both eventually they will hop onto it when it becomes attractive (if they think PS3 or Xenon is the priority, they may wait to buy PSP when it's 199 or 149).
There are a lot of factors, but 30,000,000-40,000,000 is a pretty good estimate. Some would say that's even low, but I'm not one for being overly optimistic.
Amir0x said:
Almost no battery power? What's almost? It uses battery power, plain and simple. No two ways about it, it's simple physics.
Amir0x said:
And where, pray tell, do you think the power for the LCD screen would come from?
Amir0x said:
It looks like a nice portable gaming machine with some added benefits. I think you are getting a bit overly excited. You're avatar speaks wonders. Kinda like mine does about Parker.
Amir0x said:
I'm not dismissing the PSPs other functions. I was simply discussing the topic at hand, is Apples iPod threatened. It's not. So they are using it for music and movies - yipee. :lol
Amir0x said:
Handheld of the 21st century? You do realize there are about 95 more years left in the century right?
Amir0x said:
How is it easy to asses? Sales numbers? I think a lot of sales numbers for PS2s are just replacements for broken PS2s.
Amir0x said:
Idiot? :lol
I think you're blinded by product bias and ideology.
Dr_Cogent said:
IGN tested how much power the battery used when the screen was turned off (not using music or anything). It went for 24+ hours. When they turned the screen back on, the battery life was still at 98% or so. So, no, it essentially uses nothing. Or it uses so little that it's negligible.
Dr_Cogent said:
Uh, a little LCD screen with minimal lighting will use very little energy. That aside, you don't HAVE to even use that. The PSP comes with a remote, which you can use to shuffle through your music just fine. Not the ultimate solution, but if you're worried about draining your battery life to 9 hours instead of 10 because you're using a tiny LCD remote then it's the best solution for you.
Dr_Cogent said:
My avatar speaks wonders? I don't have a PSP yet. I have a DS. My most anticipated game in 2005 is Castlevania DS. My avatar is mocking the PSP.
I'll be getting a PSP, and like EVERY console/handheld launch i'm excited to finally get my hands on a new piece of technology.
Dr_cogent said:
Indeed, they are.
Dr_Cogent said:
Wow, you're really stupid.
Dr_Cogent said:
HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHA
:lol :lol :lol
I'm thinking now that maybe you were being sarcastic. But if not, NO WORDS CAN EXPRESS how stupid you are now considered.
Dr_Cogent said:
My ideology places me firmly in the realm of the sensible, thanks.
Amir0x said:
Amir0x, I think you are full of shit
Looks like I'm not the only one.
Calling others stupid, after what you have had to say about the subject, makes me laugh. Reminds me of a story about someone with a head made of wax walking in the sun. Didn't work out too well if you know what I mean :lol
Amir0x said:
Went for 24 hours, doing what? Nothing?
Watch that head of wax, it might melt.
Guy LeDouche
Banned
I love this argument.Dr_Cogent said:
Now I will introduce you to "tie-ratios", or the ratio of software units sold per unit of hardware sold.
As of the end of 2004, the PS2 had a tie-ratio of 11:1, while the XBox has a ratio of 9:1, GC is 8:1.
So unless all these "millions" of people are buying 11 new games to go with their replacement of their shitty consoles, then you are wrong.
Dr_Cogent said:Amir0x, I think you are full of shit
Yeah. I'm sorry, you're the one who said "I THINK A LOT OF PS2 SALES ARE ATTRIBUTED TO BROKEN UNITS."
Only a flaming fucking idiot would think that, so what can I assume about you? Hm.
Dr_Cogent said:
Oh teh noes, the army of the mentally-fucking-retarded are going to oust me via ridiculous forum popularity contests!
At the risk of sounding egotistical, I'm going to be right, and you're going to be wrong... and we're going to come back and have a good laugh at all this.
Dr_Cogent said:
Wow.
Guy LeDouche said:
Big whoopidee doo? It's still unsubstantiated guessing. It's not fact, and it can't be proven. It's flimsy statistics. Your axiom proves nothing. It's just a guess. PS2's ratio might be even higher or lower depending on number of PS2s bought to replace bad ones. Same for all the other consoles. You guys are hilarious.
Number this, number that. It's all a guessing game because there isn't a reliable scientific way to prove anything. Guesstimate all you want. That's what stock brokers do. Sometimes they're right, sometimes they're way off.
What's the big pissing match for anyway? I don't care if the PSP does great? It's just not a serious competitor to the iPod is all.
Sheesh!
Dr_Cogent said:It appears from this thread you are unable to discuss/debate the issue without playing the role of the child
Have fun playing in your sandbox.
It's like that story! Somebody is made of wax... and there's a sun... and it's yelling about something, I don't know. But yeah then they threw themselves into the sun, and they melted! So it's not good, if you know what I mean!
What is this thread about? PSP vs. Ipod? GBA vs. PSP? Music vs. Games player? Which market wants the future of handhelds? Broken PS2's?
Yeesh, it's all over the place. Well, I can only speak to the last one. I don't know how many people want replacement PS2's or whatever, but I do know that I've seen a number of them stop working with my own eyes.
Yeesh, it's all over the place. Well, I can only speak to the last one. I don't know how many people want replacement PS2's or whatever, but I do know that I've seen a number of them stop working with my own eyes.
Speevy said:
Amir0x can't stay focused and debate the issue without it turning personal because he's foaming at the mouth about the PSP for some reason :lol :lol
You idiot! It's going to sell 10 billion units I tell you! It's the greatest handheld gaming system of the 21st century! Don't say anything bad about the PSP GOD DAMN YOU!!!!
Guy LeDouche
Banned
Gesstimate what? Tie-ratios are the great equalizer. It doesn't matter if PS2 has sold 40 million or 80 million. It doesn't matter if the XBox has sold 40 million or 80 million. It shows the number of software titles sold per console sold. At 11:1, do you really think the purely statistically average consumer, after buying 11 titles for his first PS2, buys another 11 titles for his second PS2? If there are millions of these statistically average consumers replacing broken consoles with new consoles as you claim, wouldn't the PS2 have the lowest tie-ratio?Dr_Cogent said:
So... go to an iPod forum to wank with other people who want to wank over their iPods? We talk about videogames here.Dr_Cogent said:What's the big pissing match for anyway? I don't care if the PSP does great? It's just not a serious competitor to the iPod is all.
Sheesh!
Doesn't matter. You have proven yourself to be blissfully ignorant to hard numbers, or you are just a troll/gimmick/retard.
Speevy said:
I haven't seen any of my systems break ever, but that's a story for another time. I can say without doubt that anyone who thinks that broken PS2s have any meaningful affect on sales is a bit nutter. I guess if you consider less than 1% of 80,000,000 meaningful it might be something, but we don't have any sort of numbers on that.
DCharlie said:
No, what are you doing to the forum! I bet you didn't see that one coming, I want my fifty cents.
Dr_Cogent said:
Actually, it was you who first went off subject. That aside, we already established how ridiculous your assertion is. I'm simply debating about the truth, and the truth has no fanboy boundaries.
Guy LeDouche said:
Your logic is flawed. Go take some good college courses in statistics and analysis. Claiming that the PS2 would have the lowest tie-in ratio because of PS2s bought to replace broken ones is flawed. Maybe the ratio would actually be higher and it's brought down to 11:1 because of just that very reason. Nice try, but no cigar. Next!
Speevy said:
Less than 1% of PS2 sales are from replacement units, that's my assertion. And actually, unless you have evidence to the contrary I'm betting that the rate of units breaking down (i.e. not working anymore) has to be less than 2%. 5% would be an enormous number, several million+. I've seen no evidence to suggest that, but feel free to prove me wrong. Anecdotal evidence does not work for an assertion quite that serious.
Pedigree Chum
Banned
Short answer: no
Long answer: hells no
Long answer: hells no
Guy LeDouche
Banned
Okay, well you are making the claim that a significant portion of PS2 sales are replacements for broken consoles so the burden or proof is on you. Whenever you have sources, feel free to cite them. If what you are claiming can be backed up with numbers and sources, I'll be happy to believe you.Dr_Cogent said:
e:
:lol this coming from the guy who has yet to cite any numbers :lolDr_Cogent said:
here's some documented proof - In a few months, PSP has sold almost 1/13th of the iPod's current sales numbers (over the last what? 4-5 years?), and it has only been released in one region.
Dr_Cogent said:
Actually, I was debating PSPs supposed potential success relative to iPod's potential success. My assertion was that at least 30,000,000-40,000,000 PSPs will be sold, for obvious reasons... you turned it into a debate about that number. It's not a fact, because it hasn't yet sold that number. But I'm pretty good at making predictions, and when we come back to this in four years, we're going to see that I was right.
But that aside, it's pointless, because you and me disagree. And you're so stuck up on thinking this has anything to do with ones opinion of PSP that it's ridiculous.
Dr_Cogent said:
Hahahaha, you're like a wellspring of comedy platinum waiting to be mined.
Amir0x said:
Anecdotal evidence doesn't work for disproving a problem that is so acknowledged either. You've never seen a PS2 break down. I don't even own one, and I watched a friend get disk read errors to the point where his PS2 just stopped reading anything.
Who tracks this stuff? The fact that you would even imply that there's not a problem with PS2's being unreliable just shows how out of touch you are with the general PS2-owning public. I don't mean that to be disrespectful, but people across the internet don't make this stuff up to be fanboys.
mashoutposse
Ante Up
Who cares if the PSP is a threat to the iPod or not? It's probably going to sell more in the next twelve months than the iPod did during its whole time on the market...
mashoutposse
Ante Up
1% of 80 million is 800,000 people; so, even though 99% of PS2s are A-OK, you can still have a lot of people complaining about broken hardware.
Guy LeDouche
Banned
So then what is your argument? You have no basis for your argument? That's great. Do you understand debate?Dr_Cogent said:
I think you are a smart, well-spoken poster, but that doesn't mean it's even close to being true.
Speevy said:
Again, you're trying to use anecdotal evidence as a spring board for a larger problem.
Speevy said:
I'm not implying one thing or the other. I'm simply implying it's as much of a problem as any piece of technology - all major electronics have a certain defect percentage. I'm assuming that unless you can establish numbers, it's not much higher or lower than the average. Any defection is unacceptable and should be fixed for free by Sony. They even had a class action suite filed against them for their defections, I believe.
I think it's funny that you're trying to assert that a random assessment of internet posters is a good guage for a larger problem. It's not exactly like somebody's going to make a thread about having a working PS2, so it's easier to point out when somebody has a problem then it is to point out when somebody has no problem - especially on the Internet.
So, if you can try to establish numbers, be my guest. I'm not asserting the problem doesn't exist, I'm simply saying that unless you have numbers it is nothing more that speculation based on a completely unscientific sampling of internet ramblings.
Pedigree Chum
Banned
mashoutposse said:
That's true, the gaming market will eat this shit up. iPod or no iPod, it makes no difference, PSP will stand on its own.
If you don't think the PSP will sell at least 30,000,000-40,000,000 you are an idiot and you should shoot yourself before it spreads like a virus to your friends and family.
First of all, when you mentioed the 40 million, you made it sound as if it would do that by the end of the year, catching up to the iPod.
Secondly, after being challenged about your stupid number, you came up with the quote from above. You moved the debate into the personal realm. Obviously a nerve got hit, or your just unstable. Either way, I don't care. Grow up little boy and get over it. You're acting like my 2 year old.
The Douche is nipping right on your heels as well.
First of all, when you mentioed the 40 million, you made it sound as if it would do that by the end of the year, catching up to the iPod.
Secondly, after being challenged about your stupid number, you came up with the quote from above. You moved the debate into the personal realm. Obviously a nerve got hit, or your just unstable. Either way, I don't care. Grow up little boy and get over it. You're acting like my 2 year old.
The Douche is nipping right on your heels as well.
Amir0x said:
40 million units sold - same thing.
I've talked to plenty of guys at the local EB. They have said they get tons of PS2s back (far more than Xboxs or Gamecubes). What that's worth - probably not a whole lot for your clouded mind, but hey - whatever floats yer boat.
Dr_Cogent said:
I clearly said it would be in its lifetime. Shit, we had a thread where we discussed numbers and I predicted 8,000,000 for this year. That'd be quite a leap in logic to go from 8,000,000 to 40,000,000 in a single year. Even if Sony could produce such a number, which is impossible
Dr_Cogent said:
See, that's the problem. The number isn't stupid. It's actually a perfectly sensible prediction about where the sales trends will lead the PSP. As I said, some people might even consider that a low estimate. Things just don't magically become successful or unsuccessful... there are usually some fairly good indications that we can use to guide us. If you're better at reading the signs we have, you're going to be better at making predictions.
We all know the number isn't fact, so the point that you're arguing about it makes you look really silly.
And seriously, dude. "Little boy"? "Acting like a 2 year old"? That's some good shit.
Dr_Cogent said:
So once more, you go straight for the anecdotal evidence.
Let me put it this way. Anecdotal evidence is about as worthless as toilet paper is relative to a bar of Gold.
iPod is 13 million, probably 20,000,000 by end of year. PSP will easily be 40,000,000+. So even if you don't see one or the other more on subway systems, PSP will surely end up more popular from a sales point of view. If the brand gets REALLY popular, PSP2 can end up with 60,000,000+ (like GBA), and then it's just a different arena.
Yeah, real clear.
Maybe you need to learn to convey your thoughts better.
Regardless, like I said. Your just guessing up a storm. Blah blah blah, 40 million. Look at me. I'm so smart. Big whoop. Believe it when I see it. Talk is cheap.
Yeah, real clear.
Maybe you need to learn to convey your thoughts better.
Regardless, like I said. Your just guessing up a storm. Blah blah blah, 40 million. Look at me. I'm so smart. Big whoop. Believe it when I see it. Talk is cheap.
Dr_Cogent said:
Maybe you're right about that! I'll bold stuff next time to show you!
Dr_Cogent said:
Talk is indeed cheap, my friend. By the time four years comes around we'll probably have forgot all about this, but hey... if you want to make a bet, then talk won't be so cheap!
Amir0x said:
No need to bold anything, wouldn't help anyway. Words mean things. Use them the right way
I'm setting my Sunbird calendar to 4 years from now.
:lol :lolWe can have a check up thread on the PSP numbers.
I don't have anything against the PSP. I just don't see the need to start calling names because someone doesn't believe someone elses made up numbers is all.
Way too late to be spending on this nuttiness. Time for bed.
Dr_Cogent said:No need to bold anything, wouldn't help anyway. Words mean things. Use them the right way
I'm setting my Sunbird calendar to 4 years from now.
We can have a check up thread on the PSP numbers.
I don't have anything against the PSP. I just don't see the need to start calling names because someone doesn't believe someone elses made up numbers is all.
Way too late to be spending on this nuttiness. Time for bed.
You guys take the internet too seriously. When I say hyperbolic statements like "YOU R IDIOT FOR THINKING THIS", it's just tomfoolery. It's not serious.
Anyway, I'll be waiting. I HAVE MY TIMEBOMB SET. In four years, we meet again.
Have a good sleep though, seriously :lol
DCharlie
And even i am moderately surprised
Sony i guess - and apple of course!
If i was Sony, i'd be using the PSP as a way to push the content vision down the DLC track.
The massive advantage that the PSP has over the Ipod is the screen.
If sony were to provide pre-formatted for PSP video for download, along with music (ie: expand out Sonyconnect) then they are onto a winner. Only question is storage - Stringer already said himself that memory cards are overpriced - perhaps we'll see cheap 1gig sticks? Maybe we'll see a HD equiped PSP after all with the rise of 1 inch HD tech? who knows....
Then ,with the PS3, offer the same service (video for PS3, as well as allowing easy handling of PSP content download (just plug your PSP into the USB)) - this also gives the sony online experience something that XBL doesn't have (yet?) - a direct link into non-game DLC. Like that track by a certain person in a PS3 game? Oh, well why not pay to download other tracks to your play list. Wanna transfer it to your PSP? Sure - plug it into to the USB port. Add a PS3 format to PSP format converter as well - actually , the new PSX has this function but, uh, according to "people" it's takes several times the length of the actual movie/program to convert - BUT it's a step in the right direction! Something that was on TV last night, converted to your PSP and ready to go. Awesome.
now i know this sounds obvious and straight forward, and nothing mind burstingly inventive, and that's why it MUST happen this time.
The tech and the effort involved should be fairly straight forward, and it's pushes the content agenda that Stringer seems interested in doing as well as adding something beyond the ipod and beyond the XBL experience.
I don't know how things are in the US, but iPod went ballistic in Japan when the iPod Mini came out. That suggests to me that consumers go for size over features. By that logic, I would say the PSP doesn't threaten the iPod in any way. You can compare the size of the potential markets all you like (although the market for MP3 players is unproven since it is the first gen, basically), but it doesn't mean the iPod sales will be hampered by the PSP - the two are not really fighting for the same ground.
It would be like saying PS1 threatens CD players, or PS2 threatens DVD players - in reality, the PS brand drove down the prices of regular players and improved the spread of the formats. The same thing could happen with iPod, in theory. i.e. people buy PSP, get interested in listening to MP3s on the go, then buy an iPod because it is a better product.
It would be like saying PS1 threatens CD players, or PS2 threatens DVD players - in reality, the PS brand drove down the prices of regular players and improved the spread of the formats. The same thing could happen with iPod, in theory. i.e. people buy PSP, get interested in listening to MP3s on the go, then buy an iPod because it is a better product.
Pedigree Chum
Banned
Amir0x said:
I don't see how Sony would include a HDD and a disc drive in there without making the thing massive.
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