Dring: Are consoles in trouble? By the end of 2026, the PS5/XBS gen will be 20 m behind PS4/XBO at the same point in their life cycles

It doesn't have to be in 2027. 2028 is also possible. Also console manufacturers eat the cost increase in the first years of each generation. Are we pretending we've forget about the past 40 years of console gaming or what?

If the next Xbox is releasing in 2026 as per the rumors, I'd like to see how long it will take Playstation before releasing theirs.

I mentioned once before that I highly doubt they would let Xbox run around with a new machine for more than a year, let alone two. But I guess it also depends whether or not devs are even ready for a new machine to develop for.



I don't get this guy. I thought he left X due to getting harrassed or something and now he's back again.
 
Last edited:
But what about the engagement numbers!?

Surely more are just streaming games straight to their TV or iPad right!? RIGHT!?

Are we taking into account all the gamepass users and Xbox cloud users!?!?!?

Won't somebody think of the GeForce now players :'(
 
This is a dumb analysis. Yes, console sales (like Xbox) are down, but many people are still playing on older consoles (PS4/Xbox One). And that's due to several factors: higher prices, games still being available on those older systems (including the most played ones), and so on.

Consoles have more active players than ever right now. Suggesting that consoles are declining based solely on sales is a really dumb assumption.
It's not a dumb analysis, Xbox exiting the market will likely lead to a big contraction in console volume since not every Xbox gamer will be guaranteed to pick up a PS (may even exit gaming as a whole).

This gen housed the highest selling console of all time (at least it will be shortly).

That's not a market contraction, that's just ignoring the market leader! How bizarre (though I only read the OP and not the source).
The market is potentially losing 20m users (2m from Playstation and the rest is Xbox), that's a very big issue if you are a 3rd party publisher because your TAM is decreasing!
 
This is pretty much entirely due to Xbox crashing and burning this generation. PS5 is about on par with PS4 (sometimes we hear slightly ahead, sometimes slightly behind), and Switch 2 is gonna do fine (although not as good as the OG).
 
Last edited:
If the next Xbox is releasing in 2026 as per the rumors, I'd like to see how long it will take Playstation before releasing theirs.

I mentioned once before that I highly doubt they would let Xbox run around with a new machine for more than a year, let alone two. But I guess it also depends whether or not devs are even ready for a new machine to develop for.



I don't get this guy. I thought he left X due to getting harrassed or something and now he's back again.

He doesn't deal with criticism very well
 
For playstation if we consider ps4 and ps5 users there hasn't been a decline in userbase rather growth.

Sonys active users on ps4 and ps5 is 124 million as mentioned by chris.

But yes there are less users on ps5 then ps4 of comparing to the same point last gen, but that's not something set in stone and something like GTA6 can shift that.
 
Last edited:
Classic Dring alarm "oh no gaming is doomed, click on my article to learn more about it"

Xbox dropped the ball pretty hard, here lies your difference compared to previous gen.

Ummm .. because of Xbox Series X|S poor performance 🙄


It has long been the general assumption that the people ditching Xbox were moving over to PlayStation.

Making the comparison on an Xbox + PS level seems like the right thing to do in that case
 
Last edited:
Perhaps Sony or Xbox might consider giving people a reason to buy their consoles?

Didn't read thread so probably already argued, but why the hell would anyone buy an Xbox if they already have a PC or PS5? The games will come there too.

Exclusives are a consoles strength.

(There's a myriad other reasons why people might be checking out; woke shit, paying for online, weak first party offerings, game prices, broken games, microtransactions, more woke shit, etc)
 
Last edited:
I don't have my finger on the pulse of the market, just my own thoughts and gaming habits.

I never willingly buy games for walled gardens unless they're an exlusive release that I find is a must-play. And apart from Front Mission 3 for my Switch¹ I haven't fired up a console since May. (The wife do play some Slay the Spire and Binding of Isaac on my PS5 from time to time.) My desktop and handhelds doing the heavy lifting these days.

Seeing as PS and Xbox both are releasing most of their games for PC (not that they release many 1st party games that interest me these days) I'm going to be investing a nice slump of cash in a living room PC when the next gen comes around.

It'll be the end of the era of non-stop console purchases, but no use having more of these dust collectors around anymore. Will be keeping a Switch² as a side-hoe for some upcoming exclusives though.

2027 seems to be the year of new tech so I'm looking foreward to geeking out over what to get. If I'm lucky Valve will have rolled out more hardware support for SteamOS by then. Could be that MS reverse-UNO my expectations and actually follows up and keep improving and debloating their big-screen experience, but I'm not holding my breath.
 
The market is potentially losing 20m users (2m from Playstation and the rest is Xbox), that's a very big issue if you are a 3rd party publisher because your TAM is decreasing!
The 2m on playstation isn't lost though is it?

Assuming the active user count dring mentioned is true then nothing has actually been lost, but the ps5 userbase just lagging behind compared to previous gen.
 
Last edited:
a6kz8v.jpg

When a forest dies, certain tree types die first. Forests do not die with every plant wilting at the exact same rate.

PlayStation can hang on 5 - 10 years longer but they're all seeing young people reject console.
 
The other problem is, games are not allowed to fail sales wise.....if they do then you just have to look at Dead Space, Guardians of the Galaxy, Alone in the Dark, Deus Ex....(to name but a few...) genres are dying out---tennis, soccer, (or there is next to no competition within them...) Games are taking a hell of a lot longer to follow up on compared to PS3 generation ....ie James Bond and Mass Effect...
 
It has long been the general assumption that the people ditching Xbox were moving over to PlayStation.
Eh, not everyone is TimDog. If I was deciding to not buy the next Switch, it wouldn't mean I'll be more willing to buy the next Xbox. You have more alternatives nowadays.
 
Eh, not everyone is TimDog. If I was deciding to not buy the next Switch, it wouldn't mean I'll be more willing to buy the next Xbox. You have more alternatives nowadays.

What are the other console alternatives, aside from the PS5?
 
Last edited:
When a forest dies, certain tree types die first. Forests do not die with every plant wilting at the exact same rate.

PlayStation can hang on 5 - 10 years longer but they're all seeing young people reject console.
I agree, PS sells to the same demographic for 30 years now. I had a PS1 when I was a kid, now I have a PS5. And with a big amount of games being PEGI 18, I think it's on purpose (or at least accidental) that young people don't care for consoles.
 
My steam library has been with me for over 15 years, I don't have to pay $100+ dollars a year just to play online, and I can play my games across 3 different PC devices I have at home. Consoles deserve to die if they cant compete.
 
Consoles in trouble are not Dring, Xbox is in trouble, PS5 has sold more than 20 million consoles annually for the last two (something that PS4 did not do and being much more expensive) and it still has GTA6 and more left, Switch is going for more than 150 million and Switch 2 has started breaking records, let's not put them all in the same bag.
 
i mean... if you take a look at PC hardware, how many people are still using old gen GPUs and latest gen GPUs?

the same logic applies to console.
inflation, economy, pricing, cross gen games and diminishing visual leaps ....people are more reluctant to buy a next gen console every 7-8 years, that is why Sony and Microsoft are going for MAU now.

IMO, they should stick with 10 year cycle with mid gen PRO version and continue with the MAU engagement now. Its not like we are going to get AAA next gen game in 5 years at least anyway lol
I agree with 95% of your statement and well said. I've been saying that Sony should draw out their console cycle a bit longer than normal and the same goes for software. Developers could learn a lesson from the GTA5, No Man's Sky developers. Longer support and cut down on hastily releases.
 
I agree, PS sells to the same demographic for 30 years now. I had a PS1 when I was a kid, now I have a PS5. And with a big amount of games being PEGI 18, I think it's on purpose (or at least accidental) that young people don't care for consoles.
It's always funny when gamers with access to 0 market analytics think they know better than CEOs who obsess over market analytics.
 
PS3/Wii/Xbox 360/Wii U - 280m

PS4/Xbox One/Switch - 328m

PS5/Xbox Series/Switch 2 - Estimated 207m by the end (assuming 105m PS5, 60m Switch 2 and 42m Xbox Series). That is a significant contraction.
Should add the DS/3DS on that 280m because Switch merged Wii/WiiU with DS and 3DS.
 
You look at that gaf and focused on the curtains?

Ha Gay GIF
I have no interest in chubby Cavill sorry
It's always funny when gamers with access to 0 market analytics think they know better than CEOs who obsess over market analytics.
I am not sure if you're making fun of what I was saying, but be my guest, I don't really have any knowledge on market.
Should add the DS/3DS on that 280m because Switch merged Wii/WiiU with DS and 3DS.
He put Switch 2 LTD sales slightly above Xbox, and you're surprised about the lack of DS sales in his post ?
 
What counts more than console hardware sales is people actually going out and buying the games. The Wii might have sold millions and millions, but so many Wii owners hardly bought a game and just played Wi Sports.

I would worry far more if we saw a massive drop in game sales, myself.
 
Covid messed with production.
The economy being a roller coaster of uncertainty.
Tariffs making an even bigger mess.
The rising cost of, well, everything.
Sony not having as many big hits exclusive to PS5 to get people off their PS4.
Xbox stepping on every rake possible in their hardware business.

There's just so many factors going into why sales are down that I don't think we can really determine the state of things from just the simple perspective of a console's alone when everything else has been so unprecedentedly weird.
 
While I agree with you, the Wii sold almost 1 billion software, so around 10 games per console, which is a very good ratio
On paper maybe


You go to the shops back in those days and you'll see far more people buying games for the 360 or PS3 and far more engagement and talk of games for those systems
Which for me, explained why Nintendo rushed the Wii U out and apparently made it with a big focus on 3rd party games.

That was my take anyway.


If SONY or Xbox aren't making money on games sold and 3rd party royalties, then we're in trouble IMO
 
I imagine a lot of this will be to do with people just not having perhaps as much expendable income as they did then and when you are struggling to get food on the table, a PS5 is probably the last thing on your mind.

In addition to that though, PS4 and Xbox One are still seeing new releases. A lot of casual gamers probably just want to play the games and don't care how good they look. For those that maybe buy one or two games per year, they probably don't see the value in upgrading.
 
It's not a dumb analysis, Xbox exiting the market will likely lead to a big contraction in console volume since not every Xbox gamer will be guaranteed to pick up a PS (may even exit gaming as a whole).
This difference of 20M less can simply be considered that in the last generation you had TWO consoles and in this one you only need to have the PlayStation.

I bet that Third Parties haven't seen a "shrinkage" in game sales... Because after all, people can buy two consoles but they certainly don't buy two copies of the game, one for each console.
 
If the next Xbox is releasing in 2026 as per the rumors, I'd like to see how long it will take Playstation before releasing theirs.

I mentioned once before that I highly doubt they would let Xbox run around with a new machine for more than a year, let alone two. But I guess it also depends whether or not devs are even ready for a new machine to develop for.
The next Xbox is the new Dreamcast.
 
The market is shifting and also 2020 and the pandemic was an event that caused distortion.

PC gaming is growing, in my opinion due to how kids consume entertainment.

3 years ago my kids were all about the switch. 2 years ago I started them on PS5. The older one got hooked, the younger one prefers to watch youtube for 8 hours.

This year both asked me for a gaming pc. For some reason they rarely want to use mine.
 
Microsoft will release a Rog Ally with a Xbox sticker on it, they should also release a PS5 with an Xbox sticker on it and call it the PSX
 
The issue is pretty simple; Xbox materially changed their business model and the results are what they are. Sony basically continued along the same path, albeit with a heavier reliance on cross-platform sales to bolster income.

That's the actual story. Console sales were deprioritized and therefore the segment hasn't grown.
 
As it gets harder to tell the difference between graphics and we reach peak diminishing returns while at the same time the price of the consoles keep increasing it will only get worse, eventually cross gen games will become permanent
 
Last edited:
As some of the posters above have correctly identified, it's fucked up beyond words that Sony chooses to die a slow suicide by porting their games to the personal computer, thereby devaluing the PlayStion brand, wiping out that which makes the PlayStation special, and giving absolutely no reason to buy a PlayStation console. Truly fucking abhorrent, and it's a big reason why I stopped playing video games.

Becoming a third party publisher is nothing but a big fucking slap in the face. Nintendo is the only one left with common sense.
 
As some of the posters above have correctly identified, it's fucked up beyond words that Sony chooses to die a slow suicide by porting their games to the personal computer, thereby devaluing the PlayStion brand, wiping out that which makes the PlayStation special, and giving absolutely no reason to buy a PlayStation console. Truly fucking abhorrent, and it's a big reason why I stopped playing video games.

Becoming a third party publisher is nothing but a big fucking slap in the face. Nintendo is the only one left with common sense.

You stopped playing videogames because Uncharted is on Steam?

pfft-erobb.gif
 
im not sure so sure about this, gta 6 is going to sell, but imo, most people who play gta games may a;lready have a console.

There's 50 million active PS4 owners out there. What do you think they'll be doing after GTA6 launches?
 
With Xbox essentially dead, Sony shouldve cleaned up. the fact that they failed to make zero inroads into the xbox marketshare from last gen is pretty telling. it's clearly why they are whoring out their franchises to PC, Switch and now Xbox. They cannot sell their consoles to the xbox or PC or Nintendo fanbases.

Xbox is a big failure that shouldve let to phil's firing years ago. He's single handedly killed an entire brand. And yet, Sony is literally following his lead by releasing expensive consoles, 1 exclusive a year, porting everything under the sun to PC, and now their direct competitors. You would think they would look at this and say oh we shouldnt follow a loser who literally ran his business to the ground, but nope. The only thing they've differed on is releasing games day one on PS+ Premium, but a year is almost as bad as their own leaks showed them upset over HFW's sales falling off a cliff after they put it on premium after just a year.

I said this before, and i will say it again. Exclusives matter. Price drops matter. Yes, they wont net you 2x more sales. You cannot convince all the xbox owners to jump ship, let alone steam diehards who wont even buy from the Epic store they are so brainwashed, but you dont need a 150 million steam owners, you need maybe 5-10%. that alone will net you 4-8 million in sales. Same goes for Xbox. Just an extra 5-10 million sales from Xbox owners along with PC sales would have them outpace the PS4 by 20-25% by the end of the gen. thats massive growth.

Instead their sales are flatter than a pancake ass.

I did see that their market cap is up to $180 billion. Highest its ever been. Investors are fucking retarded and Sony's playing the investor game now instead of actually making games and making games available for people who cant afford $550 consoles. Not the same company that had the ps1 and ps2 selling for $99 by year 5. Good for shareholders, great for fanboys, bad for gamers.
 
I don't have my finger on the pulse of the market, just my own thoughts and gaming habits.

I never willingly buy games for walled gardens unless they're an exlusive release that I find is a must-play. And apart from Front Mission 3 for my Switch¹ I haven't fired up a console since May. (The wife do play some Slay the Spire and Binding of Isaac on my PS5 from time to time.) My desktop and handhelds doing the heavy lifting these days.
This has become a major point for me since getting into PC gaming a decade ago. As we march towards an all-digital future, the most precarious place IMO to have too much money locked up in are closed ecosystems. I don't trust any of the console manufacturers to maintain my digital library of titles indefinitely. Maybe Microsoft if held at knife-point( not trust, just the least worried about I guess) because I'm reasonably confident that whatever capable PC device I own in the future will have continued access to my Xbox/Windows library. I have no idea if my digital PS4 games will work on a PS7 and even less confidence that my Switch 1 games will work on whatever comes after Switch 2 ( whose to say if Nintendo doesn't change the form factor/architecture again based on how successful SW2 ends up). I mean it could be needless concerns, but who really knows?

It's why, after being courted by a bunch of dirt cheap digital PS4 games last gen, I've barely bought anything digital for PS5( a $20 RE7/8 bundle two months ago) and haven't purchased anything off the e-shop in like 5 years ( and the ony titles I was buying were bite sized indies on sale). If I have to be dragged kicking and screaming into a digital future it's going to be on PC.
 
It's not a dumb analysis, Xbox exiting the market will likely lead to a big contraction in console volume since not every Xbox gamer will be guaranteed to pick up a PS (may even exit gaming as a whole).


The market is potentially losing 20m users (2m from Playstation and the rest is Xbox), that's a very big issue if you are a 3rd party publisher because your TAM is decreasing!

Some of those 20 million are still on PS4 and some moved to PC.
 
Top Bottom