I know it might be hard, but lets try to keep fanboy opinions and other such nonsense out of this thread. I can't be alone in thinking that this handheld war is really, genuinely interesting stuff. It's like watching a giant game of chess where there's one move made every couple of weeks. I've been watching this war develop since E3.
Anyway, I wanted to at least ATTEMPT to have a serious discussion about the sales of each system, as well as future sales, in here. That means you shouldn't run off and type up your own theories willy nilly without seeing what else has been said. Absorb other people's comments. Respond to them with a dissenting opion with your reasoning or their flaws, etc.
That being said, I feel like I've been watching the situation more closely than most, so here's my two cents:
The DS is going to continue to outsell the PSP by at least a ratio of 2:1 in Japan alone for at least another couple of weeks, due to PSP supply. Realistically more like a month or two, if not more. Some people thought that DS sales might slow after a few weeks as early adopters had their fill, and eventually that will happen, but the latest media create sales are not hinting at this at all yet. The DS has sold about 200K units a week (two weeks running) since its launch when 500K were sold.
With Sony shipping approximately 100K PSPs a week, that means the DS is going to continue to widen that gap until both systems are widely available on store shelves, probably sometime in Q2 2005. Most people believe (and I agree with them), that once both systems are widely available, that the PSP will outsell the DS week to week. The question is, by how much? And how long will it take Sony to close the huge gap that Nintendo will have opened up?
There's a couple of different scenarios here. By April-ish the DS lead will likely be 3M+ worldwide. Maybe even a 4M lead, depending on how well the DS does in Europe. I think the DS's lead will fall somewhere in that range, however. Sony's increasing PSP production will slow the gap widening that Nintendo has been doing these first weeks.
Anyway, scenario 1 has the PSP sigificantly outselling the DS once people have them available everywhere side by side. Let's say outselling it by 150K units worldwide weekly by that point. I think the PSP outselling the DS by a wider margin then that is nuts, since sales are slow in Q2 and Q3. At that rate, it would still take the PSP twenty months to catch the DS. When you account for the huge gap closing sony will do for the US and Euro launches, I still see 12 months as being the earliest that the PSP could reasonably catch up to the DS. April 2006.
Scenario 2 has them remaining fairly even when they're both widely available, until things shake out towards the holiday season. Not a lot to say, really.
Scenario 3 has the DS continuing to outsell the PSP, F-ing Sony in the A.
~~~~~~~
It's my own personal opinion that something closest to scenario 1 is going to happen. The DS will amass a huge lead thanks to having more systems available, and Sony won't match/pass DS weekly sales until April-ish. At that point it'll take them at least in 2006 to match the DS in total sales, give or take a few quarters depending on what happens with software killer apps, online plans, etc.
Anyway, I wanted to at least ATTEMPT to have a serious discussion about the sales of each system, as well as future sales, in here. That means you shouldn't run off and type up your own theories willy nilly without seeing what else has been said. Absorb other people's comments. Respond to them with a dissenting opion with your reasoning or their flaws, etc.
That being said, I feel like I've been watching the situation more closely than most, so here's my two cents:
The DS is going to continue to outsell the PSP by at least a ratio of 2:1 in Japan alone for at least another couple of weeks, due to PSP supply. Realistically more like a month or two, if not more. Some people thought that DS sales might slow after a few weeks as early adopters had their fill, and eventually that will happen, but the latest media create sales are not hinting at this at all yet. The DS has sold about 200K units a week (two weeks running) since its launch when 500K were sold.
With Sony shipping approximately 100K PSPs a week, that means the DS is going to continue to widen that gap until both systems are widely available on store shelves, probably sometime in Q2 2005. Most people believe (and I agree with them), that once both systems are widely available, that the PSP will outsell the DS week to week. The question is, by how much? And how long will it take Sony to close the huge gap that Nintendo will have opened up?
There's a couple of different scenarios here. By April-ish the DS lead will likely be 3M+ worldwide. Maybe even a 4M lead, depending on how well the DS does in Europe. I think the DS's lead will fall somewhere in that range, however. Sony's increasing PSP production will slow the gap widening that Nintendo has been doing these first weeks.
Anyway, scenario 1 has the PSP sigificantly outselling the DS once people have them available everywhere side by side. Let's say outselling it by 150K units worldwide weekly by that point. I think the PSP outselling the DS by a wider margin then that is nuts, since sales are slow in Q2 and Q3. At that rate, it would still take the PSP twenty months to catch the DS. When you account for the huge gap closing sony will do for the US and Euro launches, I still see 12 months as being the earliest that the PSP could reasonably catch up to the DS. April 2006.
Scenario 2 has them remaining fairly even when they're both widely available, until things shake out towards the holiday season. Not a lot to say, really.
Scenario 3 has the DS continuing to outsell the PSP, F-ing Sony in the A.
~~~~~~~
It's my own personal opinion that something closest to scenario 1 is going to happen. The DS will amass a huge lead thanks to having more systems available, and Sony won't match/pass DS weekly sales until April-ish. At that point it'll take them at least in 2006 to match the DS in total sales, give or take a few quarters depending on what happens with software killer apps, online plans, etc.
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