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[mckmas8808]

Switch OLED is 350. Is it really that hard to believe the Switch 2 will be 400?

But we have no reason to believe the Switch 2 will come with an OLED screen. If that was the case, then a $400 Switch 2 would be possible.

 

[Mibu no ookami]

But we have no reason to believe the Switch 2 will come with an OLED screen. If that was the case, then a $400 Switch 2 would be possible.

The Switch launched at 300 dollars. As a result of inflation OLED or not the Switch 2 is going to be minimum 350 and 400 isn't out of this world. Goes without saying I'll be saving this convo for future receipts.

 

[mckmas8808]

The Switch launched at 300 dollars. As a result of inflation OLED or not the Switch 2 is going to be minimum 350 and 400 isn't out of this world. Goes without saying I'll be saving this convo for future receipts.

Please save this. I don't think you're crazy, but you saying this and being right will need to be remembered.

 

[Woopah]

Again, you're ignoring that much of the software on the Switch is the very same software that is on the PS5.

You need to sell more hardware in order to sell software.

There is definitely an overlap, but the software that is responsible for the Switch's success is not on PlayStation. Of the top 20 selling Switch games in 2023, only 1 of them was available for PlayStation. In 2022 it was 4 out of 20 and in 2021 it was 1 out of 20.

If Switch had the same games as the PS5, its hardware sales would be drastically drastically lower.

Early in the PS2s life, it really struggled to sell software in Japan. Onimusha was the first million seller in Japan, but it was a tough accomplishment with the hardware sales.

PS2 had great hardware sales, and a big userbase that was able to support good software sales (nearly 7 million games sold in the first 10 months alone).

It reached 10 million units sold faster than any other PS platform in history, and within its first 18 months FFX came out and sold 1.7 million copies in its first week. Clearly it had the hardware userbase for games to do well.

FVII Rebirth for all counts SHOULD be selling faster, but we can see that it isn't. It's 19th on the PS Store in Japan. Even if we narrow it down to games that costs 4000 yen or more, it's still only 9th.

FF16 was the best selling PS5 game in Japan last year. Gran Turismo 7 was 6th despite coming out in 2022. Evidence that games can sell for longer periods of time simply based on continued hardware sales.

You're entirely ignoring the impact of costs and convenience when looking at the PS5.

FF15 came out at ¥8,800 on a PS4 userbase of 3,745,023 and sold 716,649 in its first week
FF16 came out at ¥9,000 on a PS5 userbase of 3,803,183 and sold 336,027 in its first week

So given that FF16 had a similar price and similar userbase and sold noticeably worse, how can cost be the most important factor?

I agree that games can have legs and sell over long periods of times.

Resident Evil 4 sold more copies on PS4 in Japan last year than it did on PS5 (physical).

Pretending like this is a software problem is a convenient excuse to ignore why things are actually selling well in Japan. If anything the attach rate for games are better on PlayStation based on its userbase.

The overall software attach rate for PS5 in Japan is the worst for any platform in a long long time. This is likely because PS5 owners are largely playing F2P games due to the absence of other games on the platform with popular appeal. Lets compare PS4 and PS5 after roughly two years (PS5 is actually 3 months older in these comparisons).

PS4 hardware - 2,301,077
PS4 software - 7,556,474
Attach rate - 3.28

PS5 hardware - 2,507,619
PS5 software - 2.370.767
Attach rate - 0.95

The difference is only going to look worse once we get the 2023 numbers.

The formula for Sony to have success in Japan is to cut prices and offer more options and they're still going to have the problem of software price. A quick glance at EA Sports FC 24 on Switch and PS5 on Amazon JP shows us that the switch version is going for 5482 yen while they ps5 version is going for 7718 yen. I don't think anyone is going to argue that the software here is better on the switch, but the switch version gives you the option of playing on the go and the hardware adoption cost is significantly cheaper.

I don't think anyone is expecting PS5 to be selling as much software as the Switch. But it shouldn't be selling software worse than PS4, Vita and Wii U.

Lower prices would help somewhat, but a better lineup is what would help the most.

You can get a Switch Lite for 21,800 yen which is 144 dollars. It's sold more units than the PS5 in a pretty similar time frame. Even the PS5 Digital costs 400 dollars. Five of the six best selling games in the Japanese PS Store right now are F2P games. Cost is extremely important to the sales of these games.

And the Switch Lite is consistently the worst selling Switch model, while the best selling Switch model is the most expensive one. Currently the Lite sits at 5,793,705 while PS5 is at 4,713,002. The Lite got more than a year's head start, but ultimately the PS5 is going to sell better.

I'm not saying cost isn't important (the latest PS5 price rise definitely had a negative affect). But so far it hasn't prevented the PS5 selling hardware faster than the PS3, PS4 and PSV. Its the software sales that are struggling, less so the hardware.

 

[Woopah]

What’s going on with Unicorn Overlord Switch? No supply? PS5 version is finally out of supply?

Switch version ran out of stock. But did get a resupply since so could be in the chart again next week

Question: do these Famitsu numbers track all physical sales from basically all businesses, or not? If not - do we know from which businesses they don't include sales figures? For example, Amazon.jp etc...

They track a portion of the market, and then extrapolate to the rest I believe. Not sure we have a list of exactly who they track.

But we have no reason to believe the Switch 2 will come with an OLED screen. If that was the case, then a $400 Switch 2 would be possible.

The Switch launched at 300 dollars. As a result of inflation OLED or not the Switch 2 is going to be minimum 350 and 400 isn't out of this world. Goes without saying I'll be saving this convo for future receipts.

Fully agree with Mibu here. Even without an OLED screen, Switch 2 will cost more to produce than a Switch OLED and is likely to be priced higher. I see $399 being its minimum price.

 

[Alexios]

It's not only the top selling software that matters just because they have certain super hard hitting/evergreen titles in their roster.

The top 20 selling Switch games made up about 432,5 million copies by December 23 when Nintendo was boasting selling over 1.2 billion copies of games total by then.

The less games you look at the more skewed the results (ie boo boo only Nintendo games sell on Nintendo platforms, just because they're the top sellers by a margin, while others can also perform great as each segment/fanbase is still plentiful even if not the -40%+ that bought its greatest hit).

 

[Mibu no ookami]

There is definitely an overlap, but the software that is responsible for the Switch's success is not on PlayStation. Of the top 20 selling Switch games in 2023, only 1 of them was available for PlayStation. In 2022 it was 4 out of 20 and in 2021 it was 1 out of 20.

If Switch had the same games as the PS5, its hardware sales would be drastically drastically lower.

Do you know what had the same software? Gamecube, Wii, and Wii U. Most of the franchises selling well on Switch are pre-existing franchises. The software isn't what is pushing the Switch. The hardware is pushing the software. Mario Kart has always been popular, but it's been the most popular on the Switch because the Switch has sold the most units.

You seem to have trouble understanding what drives what on both ends here.

PS2 had great hardware sales, and a big userbase that was able to support good software sales (nearly 7 million games sold in the first 10 months alone).

It reached 10 million units sold faster than any other PS platform in history, and within its first 18 months FFX came out and sold 1.7 million copies in its first week. Clearly it had the hardware userbase for games to do well.

The PS2 was sold as an affordable DVD player. The hardware was selling, but the software wasn't. The PS2 launched in Japan March 4th 2000 and didn't have a million seller until Onimusha which launched nearly a year later.

FF15 came out at ¥8,800 on a PS4 userbase of 3,745,023 and sold 716,649 in its first week
FF16 came out at ¥9,000 on a PS5 userbase of 3,803,183 and sold 336,027 in its first week

So given that FF16 had a similar price and similar userbase and sold noticeably worse, how can cost be the most important factor?

I agree that games can have legs and sell over long periods of times.

You've really got to read everything that people say. It's not just the increase in cost in the game, but the console is also more expensive. You're also ignoring advancement in digital buyership when comparing physical sales numbers. You're making a lot of assumption that the people who bought the PS5 are as interested in FF as the people who bought the PS4. If anything FF15's weak performance could and would act as a ballast to FF16. Just as the need to play FF7 Remake would act as a ballast to sales of FF7 Rebirth.

The overall software attach rate for PS5 in Japan is the worst for any platform in a long long time. This is likely because PS5 owners are largely playing F2P games due to the absence of other games on the platform with popular appeal. Lets compare PS4 and PS5 after roughly two years (PS5 is actually 3 months older in these comparisons).

PS4 hardware - 2,301,077
PS4 software - 7,556,474
Attach rate - 3.28

PS5 hardware - 2,507,619
PS5 software - 2.370.767
Attach rate - 0.95

You're still not paying attention to what people say. The comparison isn't between PS4 and PS5 it is between Switch and PS5. Not sure why you're comparing PS4 and PS5 at all.

The difference is only going to look worse once we get the 2023 numbers.



I don't think anyone is expecting PS5 to be selling as much software as the Switch. But it shouldn't be selling software worse than PS4, Vita and Wii U.

Lower prices would help somewhat, but a better lineup is what would help the most.

Again, you're ignoring digital sales entirely and acting as if they're the same under PS4 as they are with PS5.

And the Switch Lite is consistently the worst selling Switch model, while the best selling Switch model is the most expensive one. Currently the Lite sits at 5,793,705 while PS5 is at 4,713,002. The Lite got more than a year's head start, but ultimately the PS5 is going to sell better.

I'm not saying cost isn't important (the latest PS5 price rise definitely had a negative affect). But so far it hasn't prevented the PS5 selling hardware faster than the PS3, PS4 and PSV. Its the software sales that are struggling, not the hardware.

Another misnomer. PS5 is selling more than PS5 Digital too, both of which are outselling XSS. You're missing the point. It isn't just that the cheaper selling version of something or a cheaper product is going to sell well. It's that about casting a wider net. How many families do you think will buy 2 PS5s? How many will buy 2 or more Switches? Whether they be the lite, standard, or OLED? A family with 3-4 kids might buy 4 Switches because they're affordable in whatever variety. There's no chance they're buying more than 1 PS5 in all likelihood.

You should ask yourself why the PS5 is selling faster with hardware if the software is struggling. The reality is you're using datasets that include physical only and making the assumption that digital isn't a large representation of software sales.

 

[SaintALia]

Most people would understand that the PS5 would lean heavier digital, especially with a digital only model as a non-insignfiicant percentage of their sales. You also have greater storage on the device which would encourage more digital purchases. The older population means that people will buy games themselves rather than receive them as gifts. We have no real idea what the digital adoption rate is for Japan. Only random surveys that aren't scientific polling.

Of course when you have a 6:1 ratio on hardware sales, you're going to get outsold on software.



That's exactly what has been rumored that Sony will do. Switch 2 might not reach PS4 Pro specs, but that isn't to say that the PS handheld won't and again you're still ignoring PSSR. Running games at 720p and lower and upscaling them to 1080p and in some cases 720p will allow you to run these games much easier. There is a reason Sony designed PSSR to be independent of title and that it will work on older PS5 SDKs.



Sony has a huge advantage over PC handhelds and obviously so does Nintendo.

More storage and far larger games, thus still limiting potential downloads anyway. PS5 does skew more towards digital, but not SIGNIFICANTLY so in Japan.

"We have no real idea what the digital adoption rate is for Japan"
Not necessarily, we sometimes get full sales, including digital. Not for all titles, but we do have some idea of digital adoption rate in Japan to some extent. I just can't be bothered to crawl though Installbase, Era and NeoGaf, official Sony/Nintendo PR releases on sales and Media/Fam stuff to post about it.

And yeah PSSR isn't going to be some magic bullet. PC players will tell you how great DLSS, FSR, XESS or whatever options they'll use, but it's not a miracle worker and has their own issues, and I have no idea how PSSR compares to those, as I find FSR and XESS are behind DLSS in some ways.

I can't see how Sony or anyone else is gonna shrink down PS5 specs into a handheld, even with the best and latest form of DLSS included. And we're still gonna likely hit power draw/battery issues on PS4 Pro specs in a handheld with current AMD hardware. I'm guessing Sony and AMD can design around this to some extent, but we're still gonna hit a brick wall with it being a diferent SKU and support issues.

I'm personally waiting to see how the PS5 Pro and Switch 2 consoles can do with their built in hardware upscalers.

 

[thicc_girls_are_teh_best]

It's not only the top selling software that matters just because they have certain super hard hitting/evergreen titles in their roster.

The top 20 selling Switch games made up about 432,5 million copies by December 23 when Nintendo was boasting selling over 1.2 billion copies of games total by then.

The less games you look at the more skewed the results (ie boo boo only Nintendo games sell on Nintendo platforms, just because they're the top sellers by a margin, while others can also perform great as each segment/fanbase is still plentiful even if not the -40%+ that bought its greatest hit).

Yeah but when you consider the sheer number of non-Top 20 games released overall, then you see the typical splits, you realize per game amounts are low and therefore a publisher would need many such games under their belt to make those sales overall justified (and that's aside from things like budgets taken into consideration).

The average Top 20 PS5 games are pulling much lower numbers in Japan than the Top 20 Switch games, and while the gap shrinks outside the Top 20 between both platforms, it doesn't enter a margin of error until like within the bottom 1000 or something to that effect. Otherwise I think it's fair to say that for vast majority of multiplat releases for both systems in Japan, we're typically seeing 2:1 if not more in favor of the Switch versions over PS4 ones, and the PS4 had a much healthier software attach rate than PS5 is showing.

The split ratios between Switch and PS5 versions is closer to 4:1 if not even higher in favor of Switch. And that's just the typical 3P multiplat release. I agree with Woopah in that the issue isn't so much price (though I partly think it IS price-related, if you factor in the combined cost of a PS5 & PS Portal to get a portable PS5 experience that is likely viewed by a lot of Japanese gamers as equivalent to a Switch experience, it just costs a lot more), but software offering. Sony just doesn't have enough software (particularly exclusives) that are appealing to the Japanese gaming market.

It's tough, because unless they get back to doing more AA games, they will continue to have that problem on the 1P front. And on the 3P side of things their deals are for big AAA games primarily, so a lot of those issues would still stand. Especially considering that IP like Final Fantasy, might have made too many changes between installments that have caused some whiplash among fans of the franchise which could be contributing to shorter legs on games like Rebirth, in spite of Rebirth's universal praise. But that's more a Square-Enix issue in managing development of ideas with the brand better, not Sony (nor do I think FF games being console exclusive is a factor in slowing sales, inherently).

Sony needs more AA games, they need more games tapping into aesthetics appealing to Japan, they need more non-mature games, and they need more games that can easily expand into transmedia ventures appealing to youth a la Pokemon or Yu-gi-oh. I'm saying this WRT markets like Japan, and that's on top of things like a more affordable (i.e something not $650 when combining PS5 Digital & PS Portal) portable solution too.

The thing is, they could certainly do all of that and also have both software and hardware that works for non-Japan global markets as well, so it'd be a net benefit to growing the PlayStation brand altogether. That's why I'm interested to see what the rumored Astrobot game will be like, for example. It could be a pretty decent IP to leverage in this sort of way, if they develop it right. And I guess studios like Team Asobi will be crucial to resolving these types of issues going forward as well.

 

[Woopah]

Do you know what had the same software? Gamecube, Wii, and Wii U. Most of the franchises selling well on Switch are pre-existing franchises. The software isn't what is pushing the Switch. The hardware is pushing the software. Mario Kart has always been popular, but it's been the most popular on the Switch because the Switch has sold the most units.

You seem to have trouble understanding what drives what on both ends here.

I don't know that, because its not true. They didn't have the same software.

If Wii had the exact same software as the GameCube, it would have sold a lot worse. The "Wii" series of games alone was incredibly popular. Wii Sports sold 3.7 million, Wii Sports Resort sold 3.1 million, Wii Fit sold 3.5 million and and Wii Play sold 2.8 million. You don't think those games had an impact on hardware sales?

And of course, the Wii got third party franchises that the GameCube didn't get, like Monster Hunter, Dragon Quest and Taiko no Tatsujin.

Mario Kart has indeed always been popular. But for a console to be popular you need it to get lots of popular games. Games like Mario Kart and Smash Bros. do better on platforms where there are other popular franchises drawing people into that console ecosystem (Wii, 3DS and Switch) than on platforms where they are two of the only popular games there (GameCube and Wii U).

You say software isn't what is pushing the Switch. But what do you think would have happened if Nintendo had released the Switch but not published any games for it?

The PS2 was sold as an affordable DVD player. The hardware was selling, but the software wasn't. The PS2 launched in Japan March 4th 2000 and didn't have a million seller until Onimusha which launched nearly a year later.

In its first 10 months in Japan the PS2 sold 3,100,795 units and 6,947,219 games. Doesn't that mean software was selling?

You've really got to read everything that people say. It's not just the increase in cost in the game, but the console is also more expensive. You're also ignoring advancement in digital buyership when comparing physical sales numbers. You're making a lot of assumption that the people who bought the PS5 are as interested in FF as the people who bought the PS4. If anything FF15's weak performance could and would act as a ballast to FF16. Just as the need to play FF7 Remake would act as a ballast to sales of FF7 Rebirth.

I guess the bit I'm not understanding is why a high hardware price would result in lower software sales, on a larger userbase.

If the hardware price meant that PS5 was selling less hardware than PS3, PS4 and Wii U, then lower software sales would make sense. But instead PS5 has higher hardware sales than those consoles and still has noticeably lower software sales.

So what impact does a high hardware price have on people who already own the hardware? Unless we are saying that people spent so much of their money on the PS5 that they don't have money left for games?

Digital would definitely have made a difference. I was trying to show that the gap between PS4 and PS5 is so large that digital is unlikely to make up the difference. But I should have stated that more clearly, so apologies for that.

I'm not assuming the people who bought the PS5 are as interested in FF as the people who bought the PS4. I'm saying that PS5 owners are generally less interested in FF and other non-F2P games than PS4 owners. That's why PS5 software sales are going to be noticeably lower than PS4, even taking digital into account.

You're still not paying attention to what people say. The comparison isn't between PS4 and PS5 it is between Switch and PS5. Not sure why you're comparing PS4 and PS5 at all.

I'm comparing it to PS4 to highlight the problem. The problem is not that PS5 software is below Switch levels. That is to be expected.

The problem is that PS5 software levels are noticeably lower than PS4 and probably lower than even the Wii U. And that's after giving the PS5 a high digital split.

Again, you're ignoring digital sales entirely and acting as if they're the same under PS4 as they are with PS5.

What would you consider to be a reasonable digital split for PS4 and PS5 after two years on the market? Because PS5 would need a 69% digital split for its total software to match PS4's physical software.

Another misnomer. PS5 is selling more than PS5 Digital too, both of which are outselling XSS. You're missing the point. It isn't just that the cheaper selling version of something or a cheaper product is going to sell well. It's that about casting a wider net. How many families do you think will buy 2 PS5s? How many will buy 2 or more Switches? Whether they be the lite, standard, or OLED? A family with 3-4 kids might buy 4 Switches because they're affordable in whatever variety. There's no chance they're buying more than 1 PS5 in all likelihood.

Ah I thought you were saying that Lite was going to sell more than PS5 because of its lower price.

Fully agree with everything you say in this part.

You should ask yourself why the PS5 is selling faster with hardware if the software is struggling. The reality is you're using datasets that include physical only and making the assumption that digital isn't a large representation of software sales.

Well as you alluded to earlier I believe that the biggest games on PS5 are the free to play ones. Titles like Genshin Impact and Honkai: Star Rail are helping persuade people to buy a PS5 (and it helps that they are not available on Switch).

I appreciate you putting in the effort to reply in detail by the way

 

[Alexios]

Yeah but

What you're saying seems supplementary to my post, you could replace "but" with an "and" there. Obviously Switch reigns supreme in all tiers, I said it's murdering everything in my 1st post. I just noted the (Switch) market below the top is even bigger, mostly in reply to this:

There is definitely an overlap, but the software that is responsible for the Switch's success is not on PlayStation. Of the top 20 selling Switch games in 2023, only 1 of them was available for PlayStation. In 2022 it was 4 out of 20 and in 2021 it was 1 out of 20.

Which may be true on many levels, but also seems to imply other types of games don't sell well on Switch, when like you say even the multiplatform games often sell better on it even if not enough to be a top seller still, so clearly other types of games can/do sell on Switch.

Also some times they are different games on Switch because it can't handle what the PS4/5 can but they're otherwise the same types of games offered even if technically exclusive as well so the exclusivity alone doesn't say much about the type of games that sell on it either.

 

[John Wick]

This thread is about numbers, predictions, fun, winners and losers… Maybe the one that feels hurt is you, because i am just pointing i was right with my prediction.

It doesn't take a genius to work out home console sales have been on the decline in Japan ever since PS3 and Wii. Especially consoles that cost nearly twice the price of the Switch. Your the Pachter of Neogaf. Well done!

 

[Mibu no ookami]

More storage and far larger games, thus still limiting potential downloads anyway. PS5 does skew more towards digital, but not SIGNIFICANTLY so in Japan.

Games are not far larger. In many cases the PS5 version of games are actually smaller than PS4 games.

"We have no real idea what the digital adoption rate is for Japan"
Not necessarily, we sometimes get full sales, including digital. Not for all titles, but we do have some idea of digital adoption rate in Japan to some extent. I just can't be bothered to crawl though Installbase, Era and NeoGaf, official Sony/Nintendo PR releases on sales and Media/Fam stuff to post about it.

Have an example you'd like to share? Sounds like you don't.

And yeah PSSR isn't going to be some magic bullet. PC players will tell you how great DLSS, FSR, XESS or whatever options they'll use, but it's not a miracle worker and has their own issues, and I have no idea how PSSR compares to those, as I find FSR and XESS are behind DLSS in some ways.

First FSR isn't the same. Second, PSSR is going to apply to all games, whereas DLSS and XESS apply to specific games. No one said it was a magic bullet, but if it can run games at 720p and upscale to 1080p, that is a tremendous savings in rendering.

I can't see how Sony or anyone else is gonna shrink down PS5 specs into a handheld, even with the best and latest form of DLSS included. And we're still gonna likely hit power draw/battery issues on PS4 Pro specs in a handheld with current AMD hardware. I'm guessing Sony and AMD can design around this to some extent, but we're still gonna hit a brick wall with it being a diferent SKU and support issues.

I'm personally waiting to see how the PS5 Pro and Switch 2 consoles can do with their built in hardware upscalers.

That's like saying you don't know how the XSS exists, a machine that targets 1080p for most games if not higher. Again the ROG ally and others are already not that far off. The most important part is a shared architecture. Something that AMD and Sony can customize at scale.

 

[Mibu no ookami]

I don't know that, because its not true. They didn't have the same software.

If Wii had the exact same software as the GameCube, it would have sold a lot worse. The "Wii" series of games alone was incredibly popular. Wii Sports sold 3.7 million, Wii Sports Resort sold 3.1 million, Wii Fit sold 3.5 million and and Wii Play sold 2.8 million. You don't think those games had an impact on hardware sales?

How did Zelda sell on the Wii U?

And of course, the Wii got third party franchises that the GameCube didn't get, like Monster Hunter, Dragon Quest and Taiko no Tatsujin.

Mario Kart has indeed always been popular. But for a console to be popular you need it to get lots of popular games. Games like Mario Kart and Smash Bros. do better on platforms where there are other popular franchises drawing people into that console ecosystem (Wii, 3DS and Switch) than on platforms where they are two of the only popular games there (GameCube and Wii U).

All of these major franchises for the Switch already existed, but they didn't sell nearly as well. The PS4 and PS5 haven't sold nearly as well as the PS2, yet Sony's first party software is selling significantly more in most cases. Why is that?

You say software isn't what is pushing the Switch. But what do you think would have happened if Nintendo had released the Switch but not published any games for it?



In its first 10 months in Japan the PS2 sold 3,100,795 units and 6,947,219 games. Doesn't that mean software was selling?

Can you name a single title before Onimusha that sold 1 million units?

I guess the bit I'm not understanding is why a high hardware price would result in lower software sales, on a larger userbase.

If the hardware price meant that PS5 was selling less hardware than PS3, PS4 and Wii U, then lower software sales would make sense. But instead PS5 has higher hardware sales than those consoles and still has noticeably lower software sales.

So what impact does a high hardware price have on people who already own the hardware? Unless we are saying that people spent so much of their money on the PS5 that they don't have money left for games?

Again, you're ignoring the fact that digital sales exist.

Digital would definitely have made a difference. I was trying to show that the gap between PS4 and PS5 is so large that digital is unlikely to make up the difference. But I should have stated that more clearly, so apologies for that.

I'm not assuming the people who bought the PS5 are as interested in FF as the people who bought the PS4. I'm saying that PS5 owners are generally less interested in FF and other non-F2P games than PS4 owners. That's why PS5 software sales are going to be noticeably lower than PS4, even taking digital into account.


I'm comparing it to PS4 to highlight the problem. The problem is not that PS5 software is below Switch levels. That is to be expected.

See above.

The problem is that PS5 software levels are noticeably lower than PS4 and probably lower than even the Wii U. And that's after giving the PS5 a high digital split.



What would you consider to be a reasonable digital split for PS4 and PS5 after two years on the market? Because PS5 would need a 69% digital split for its total software to match PS4's physical software.

What is the split, can you tell me?

Ah I thought you were saying that Lite was going to sell more than PS5 because of its lower price.

Fully agree with everything you say in this part.


Well as you alluded to earlier I believe that the biggest games on PS5 are the free to play ones. Titles like Genshin Impact and Honkai: Star Rail are helping persuade people to buy a PS5 (and it helps that they are not available on Switch).

I appreciate you putting in the effort to reply in detail by the way

How many units has Genshin sold physically. Is it tracking in famitsu anywhere? Honkai?

 

[LordOcidax]

It doesn't take a genius to work out home console sales have been on the decline in Japan ever since PS3 and Wii. Especially consoles that cost nearly twice the price of the Switch. Your the Pachter of Neogaf. Well done!

 

[Woopah]

How did Zelda sell on the Wii U?

Not sure what this has to do with what I said, but please see the answer to your question below:

The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild - 128,450
Hyrule Warriors - 125, 422
The Legend of Zelda: Twilight Princess HD 89, 889
The Legend of Zelda: The Wind Waker HD - 56,059

All of these major franchises for the Switch already existed, but they didn't sell nearly as well. The PS4 and PS5 haven't sold nearly as well as the PS2, yet Sony's first party software is selling significantly more in most cases. Why is that?

As I said, popular games tend to do best when they are on platforms with other popular games. Switch has more popular games/franchises than most previous Nintendo consoles, and this pushes more hardware sales and more software sales.

In the West, I would say first party Sony games are selling better on PS4/PS5 than on PS2, because Sony is investing more in first party games these day.

We haven't seen quite the same impact in Japan, where Sony first party software generally isn't selling as well on PS4/PS5 as it was on PS2 (taking a reasonable digital split into account).

Can you name a single title before Onimusha that sold 1 million units?

No because Onimusha was indeed the first title released to hit 1 million on PS2. I agree with you on that.

But when measuring a console's software sales, the most useful metric is "software sales". Not "time until the release of the first game that would go on to reach 1 million units".

The latter metric would show the GameCube as being better at selling software in Japan than PS2. Which is obviously not true.

Again, you're ignoring the fact that digital sales exist.

No I'm not ignoring it. I'm taking a reasonable digital split into account.

What is the split, can you tell me?

Somewhere between 40% and 60% is most likely.

How many units has Genshin sold physically. Is it tracking in famitsu anywhere? Honkai?

0. Why would digital, free to play games be tracked by Famitsu?

 

[Woopah]

Yeah but when you consider the sheer number of non-Top 20 games released overall, then you see the typical splits, you realize per game amounts are low and therefore a publisher would need many such games under their belt to make those sales overall justified (and that's aside from things like budgets taken into consideration).

The average Top 20 PS5 games are pulling much lower numbers in Japan than the Top 20 Switch games, and while the gap shrinks outside the Top 20 between both platforms, it doesn't enter a margin of error until like within the bottom 1000 or something to that effect. Otherwise I think it's fair to say that for vast majority of multiplat releases for both systems in Japan, we're typically seeing 2:1 if not more in favor of the Switch versions over PS4 ones, and the PS4 had a much healthier software attach rate than PS5 is showing.

The split ratios between Switch and PS5 versions is closer to 4:1 if not even higher in favor of Switch. And that's just the typical 3P multiplat release. I agree with Woopah in that the issue isn't so much price (though I partly think it IS price-related, if you factor in the combined cost of a PS5 & PS Portal to get a portable PS5 experience that is likely viewed by a lot of Japanese gamers as equivalent to a Switch experience, it just costs a lot more), but software offering. Sony just doesn't have enough software (particularly exclusives) that are appealing to the Japanese gaming market.

It's tough, because unless they get back to doing more AA games, they will continue to have that problem on the 1P front. And on the 3P side of things their deals are for big AAA games primarily, so a lot of those issues would still stand. Especially considering that IP like Final Fantasy, might have made too many changes between installments that have caused some whiplash among fans of the franchise which could be contributing to shorter legs on games like Rebirth, in spite of Rebirth's universal praise. But that's more a Square-Enix issue in managing development of ideas with the brand better, not Sony (nor do I think FF games being console exclusive is a factor in slowing sales, inherently).

Sony needs more AA games, they need more games tapping into aesthetics appealing to Japan, they need more non-mature games, and they need more games that can easily expand into transmedia ventures appealing to youth a la Pokemon or Yu-gi-oh. I'm saying this WRT markets like Japan, and that's on top of things like a more affordable (i.e something not $650 when combining PS5 Digital & PS Portal) portable solution too.

The thing is, they could certainly do all of that and also have both software and hardware that works for non-Japan global markets as well, so it'd be a net benefit to growing the PlayStation brand altogether. That's why I'm interested to see what the rumored Astrobot game will be like, for example. It could be a pretty decent IP to leverage in this sort of way, if they develop it right. And I guess studios like Team Asobi will be crucial to resolving these types of issues going forward as well.

It is indeed a tricky problem for Sony, its not that easy to turn around.

Monster Hunter Wilds next year will help, and hopefully there are more breakout third party hits like Elden Ring and Hogwarts. From a first party perspective, I'm also interested in the potential of Astrobot. But the best thing Sony can do in that area is ensure that Ghost of Tsushima 2 is a great game (assuming they are making it).

What you're saying seems supplementary to my post, you could replace "but" with an "and" there. Obviously Switch reigns supreme in all tiers, I said it's murdering everything in my 1st post. I just noted the (Switch) market below the top is even bigger, mostly in reply to this:

Which may be true on many levels, but also seems to imply other types of games don't sell well on Switch, when like you say even the multiplatform games often sell better on it even if not enough to be a top seller still, so clearly other types of games can/do sell on Switch.

Also some times they are different games on Switch because it can't handle what the PS4/5 can but they're otherwise the same types of games offered even if technically exclusive as well so the exclusivity alone doesn't say much about the type of games that sell on it either.

To be clear, the point of the paragraph wasn't to say third party games don't sell on Switch. Some of those top selling games were third party exclusives.

I was pointing out that Switch has many popular games not available on PlayStation, and that this popular, exclusive software drives hardware sales.

 

[ShadyAcshuns]

Where is Rebirth??

Japan is just brutal.

 

[Mibu no ookami]

Not sure what this has to do with what I said, but please see the answer to your question below:

The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild - 128,450
Hyrule Warriors - 125, 422
The Legend of Zelda: Twilight Princess HD 89, 889
The Legend of Zelda: The Wind Waker HD - 56,059



As I said, popular games tend to do best when they are on platforms with other popular games. Switch has more popular games/franchises than most previous Nintendo consoles, and this pushes more hardware sales and more software sales.

Breath of the Wild did pretty underwhelming on Wii U. Same game, but did demonstrably better on Switch. This continues to go to my point. The Switch itself drove software sales. Switch has the same franchises that Nintendo always had and yet all of a sudden like magic it sells significantly better, even with some of these franchises like Pokemon not having the quality it had before.

PS5 if it was selling better, i.e. was cheaper, would be driving software sales better than it is now and again that is the challenge sony has in selling the PS5 in Japan and why a game like FF16 or FF7 Rebirth has a taller hill to climb.

In the West, I would say first party Sony games are selling better on PS4/PS5 than on PS2, because Sony is investing more in first party games these day.

We haven't seen quite the same impact in Japan, where Sony first party software generally isn't selling as well on PS4/PS5 as it was on PS2 (taking a reasonable digital split into account).

Sony put plenty of effort into the first Uncharted games, God of War, and Last of Us.

Last of Us Remastered might have sold more than the actual game on PS4. Uncharted 4 sold significantly better than the previous entries, and God of War 2018 outsold the entire franchise combined.

We haven't seen the impact in Japan because there are significantly cheaper options for gaming at a high level (even if its not as high a level).

No because Onimusha was indeed the first title released to hit 1 million on PS2. I agree with you on that.

But when measuring a console's software sales, the most useful metric is "software sales". Not "time until the release of the first game that would go on to reach 1 million units".

The latter metric would show the GameCube as being better at selling software in Japan than PS2. Which is obviously not true.

The PS2 had a lot of software in its first year, but the games individually struggled to sell particularly well. It wasn't until Onimusha and then FFX that any games really hit it out of the park. Limited hardware sales of people actually playing games will have an impact on software sales.

No I'm not ignoring it. I'm taking a reasonable digital split into account.

Somewhere between 40% and 60% is most likely.

0. Why would digital, free to play games be tracked by Famitsu?

Where are you getting 40/60? What was it during the PS4? Has it increased or decreased?

Because my point is that the most popular PS5 game at the moment is a digital game, suggests that digital is in fact a strong method for people and that maybe you're ignoring how prevalent digital is when the top 2 best selling games at this time are both digital that aren't at all tracked in famitsu.

To compare any games even Switch which we know has a large bent towards physical to PS5 software sales and ignore the fact that there is a major unknown in terms of what the actual split is and just assuming that PS5 has a software sales problem when there is a massive void of data I think reveals a problem in your equation.

The reality is that the dataset of Famitsu is entirely broken for comparisons without knowing how much digital has grown in Japan. And the answer isn't to pretend like digital doesn't exist. We already know that at least 13.6% of the PS5 owning population has no ability to play physical games, where that was not the case with the PS4 that did not have a digital only version. Does this mean there was an uptick by at least 13.6 percent? No, it doesn't. Those people may have already been digital only. We just don't know the actual splits.

 

[cartman414]

The Switch launched at 300 dollars. As a result of inflation OLED or not the Switch 2 is going to be minimum 350 and 400 isn't out of this world. Goes without saying I'll be saving this convo for future receipts.

Inflation seldom accounts for price. Improvements in tech constantly neutralize it, barring some significant jump.

 

[Woopah]

Edit - I've responded to your individual questions below, but thought it helpful for the discussion for me to summarise my position here:

• Software sells hardware. The PS2 and DS sold well because they had popular ganes. This is why the Switch is doing well.
• Having the right price and attractive hardware features does also help.
• Right now, the PS5 lacks popular packaged software outside of FF (and that franchise is less popular than it was on PS3).
• The games that are pushing PS5 hardware sales are mostly F2P. Hence why PS5 total software sales are likely below those of other platforms with similar or smaller userbases.
• A lower price or portability would help PS5. But having more popular games would help it even more.

Breath of the Wild did pretty underwhelming on Wii U. Same game, but did demonstrably better on Switch. This continues to go to my point. The Switch itself drove software sales. Switch has the same franchises that Nintendo always had and yet all of a sudden like magic it sells significantly better, even with some of these franchises like Pokemon not having the quality it had before.

Switch hardware is driven by software, and that big userbase allows software sales to be better. Its not magic.

It wasn't that Switch was always destined to do well in 2017. It was BOTW, Mario Kart 8, Splatoon 2 and Odyssey all coming out in the first few months that made Switch a success. Without those and other games, the system would have been a failure.

Fewer popular games leads to lower hardware sales. BOTW sold better on Switch than Wii U, because Switch has a much stronger lineup of games than Wii U. Let's say that Breath of the Wild was the only Switch game that Nintendo ever released. How do you think that would have affected the game's sales figures?

PS5 if it was selling better, i.e. was cheaper, would be driving software sales better than it is now and again that is the challenge sony has in selling the PS5 in Japan and why a game like FF16 or FF7 Rebirth has a taller hill to climb.

I agree that higher install base helps, but the PS5 userbase is growing faster than the platforms I am comparing it to. Not slower.

This is the key point in your argument that I'm trying to understand. How can software be facing a "taller hill" on PS5 than PS3, PS4, Wii U or Vita, when the PS5 userbase is growing faster than those platforms?

If we were to say "PS5 software is selling less than PS4/Wii U software because the hardware is more expensive and therefore there's a lower userbase", then that would make perfect sense. But that's not what we are seeing.

Sony put plenty of effort into the first Uncharted games, God of War, and Last of Us.

Last of Us Remastered might have sold more than the actual game on PS4. Uncharted 4 sold significantly better than the previous entries, and God of War 2018 outsold the entire franchise combined.

We haven't seen the impact in Japan because there are significantly cheaper options for gaming at a high level (even if its not as high a level).

Agree with all of this. This is precisely the type of investment I was talking about.

The PS2 had a lot of software in its first year, but the games individually struggled to sell particularly well. It wasn't until Onimusha and then FFX that any games really hit it out of the park. Limited hardware sales of people actually playing games will have an impact on software sales.

I agree that limited hardware sales has an impact on software sales. But how does that apply to PS2 when both hardware and software sales were fairly good?

"Time until release of first game that will sell 1 million lifetime" is a very bad metric to use to judge software selling power. Using that metric would mean that the Wii U was one of the best software selling systems in gaming history. We can both agree that is not true right?

Where are you getting 40/60? What was it during the PS4? Has it increased or decreased?

Well we have the data on the digital splits for PlayStation globally, and for Sony's first party games across Asia.

As we see from Europe, single player games tend to have lower splits that multiplayer games. Therefore the average digital split for PS4 and PS5 as a whole in Asia is likely higher than it is for just Sony first party games. But its very unlikely to reach 70% or 80%, since that would be noticeably above PlayStation's global average.

Ghost of Tsushima was supply contained at launch in Japan, and had a digital split in that country of around 50%.

So I think it is reasonable for the digital split % for PS5 to be in that 40-60 area, and for that to be higher than what it was on the PS4.

Because my point is that the most popular PS5 game at the moment is a digital game, suggests that digital is in fact a strong method for people and that maybe you're ignoring how prevalent digital is when the top 2 best selling games at this time are both digital that aren't at all tracked in famitsu.

I'm not ignoring it, that is my argument. On PS5 people are largely playing F2P games, rather than buying games. It it those F2P games that are currently driving sales of the PS5.

If the system were to get more popular games (both F2P and non-FP2) then the hardware will do even better. Monster Hunter Wilds and Ghost of Tsushima 2 will help the PS5, so hopefully we see more games with that level of popularity come to the system.

To compare any games even Switch which we know has a large bent towards physical to PS5 software sales and ignore the fact that there is a major unknown in terms of what the actual split is and just assuming that PS5 has a software sales problem when there is a massive void of data I think reveals a problem in your equation.

The reality is that the dataset of Famitsu is entirely broken for comparisons without knowing how much digital has grown in Japan. And the answer isn't to pretend like digital doesn't exist. We already know that at least 13.6% of the PS5 owning population has no ability to play physical games, where that was not the case with the PS4 that did not have a digital only version. Does this mean there was an uptick by at least 13.6 percent? No, it doesn't. Those people may have already been digital only. We just don't know the actual splits.

I'm not comparing PS5 software to Switch and I'm not pretending digital doesn't exist.

I'm comparing PS5 software to PS3, PS4, Wii U and Vita and taking reasonable digital splits into account.

 

[Mibu no ookami]

Edit - I've responded to your individual questions below, but thought it helpful for the discussion for me to summarise my position here:

• Software sells hardware. The PS2 and DS sold well because they had popular ganes. This is why the Switch is doing well.
• Having the right price and attractive hardware features does also help.
• Right now, the PS5 lacks popular packaged software outside of FF (and that franchise is less popular than it was on PS3).
• The games that are pushing PS5 hardware sales are mostly F2P. Hence why PS5 total software sales are likely below those of other platforms with similar or smaller userbases.
• A lower price or portability would help PS5. But having more popular games would help it even more.

Going to stop going back and forth after this, but I'm also going to sum up why I disagree with you.

• I think you're ignoring the reality that there is a duality in demand. That software sells hardware is a pretty simplistic view and not altogether accurate these days. If this were true the XSX and PS5 would be much closer aligned in sales. Systems sellers really isn't a thing these days. Many of the most popular games on PS5 are multiplatform games. Hardware pushes the quantity of these games sales more than vice versa. The amount of people who play fortnite on a PS5 is not driven by fortnite but rather the number of PS5s sold.
• Price is a massive factor and as we know the XSS has outsold the XSX.
• The most popular games in the US and EU are also F2P games, but we haven't seen as much of a decline in software sales. The difference? NPD and GSD report physical and digital whereas Famitsu only reports physical, leaving people to assume the sales aren't there when they have no evidence to back it up.
• Having a lower price point would help it sell hardware units, which in turn would sell software units, that would make it APPEAR to have more popular games.

Switch hardware is driven by software, and that big userbase allows software sales to be better. Its not magic.

It wasn't that Switch was always destined to do well in 2017. It was BOTW, Mario Kart 8, Splatoon 2 and Odyssey all coming out in the first few months that made Switch a success. Without those and other games, the system would have been a failure.

Fewer popular games leads to lower hardware sales. BOTW sold better on Switch than Wii U, because Switch has a much stronger lineup of games than Wii U. Let's say that Breath of the Wild was the only Switch game that Nintendo ever released. How do you think that would have affected the game's sales figures?

Why is Mario Kart more popular now than ever? The answer is, it isn't. It's selling the best it has sold because the hardware sales allows for that. Just as BOTW didn't sell particularly well on Wii U because the Wii U didn't sell particularly well. If the game never released on the Switch, it would have been just another low selling zelda game.

I agree that higher install base helps, but the PS5 userbase is growing faster than the platforms I am comparing it to. Not slower.

This is the key point in your argument that I'm trying to understand. How can software be facing a "taller hill" on PS5 than PS3, PS4, Wii U or Vita, when the PS5 userbase is growing faster than those platforms?

I've broken this down I think pretty well. You look at FF7 Rebirth in particular, and to play it you have to buy a PS5 AND the first game, AND this game... the expense is considerable as is the time commitment.

The argument isn't that games in general face a taller hill than previous platforms. The argument is, you're still despite what you're saying ignoring the digital sales of games and simply assuming that these games aren't selling as well.

If we were to say "PS5 software is selling less than PS4/Wii U software because the hardware is more expensive and therefore there's a lower userbase", then that would make perfect sense. But that's not what we are seeing.


Agree with all of this. This is precisely the type of investment I was talking about.


I agree that limited hardware sales has an impact on software sales. But how does that apply to PS2 when both hardware and software sales were fairly good?

"Time until release of first game that will sell 1 million lifetime" is a very bad metric to use to judge software selling power. Using that metric would mean that the Wii U was one of the best software selling systems in gaming history. We can both agree that is not true right?


Well we have the data on the digital splits for PlayStation globally, and for Sony's first party games across Asia.

As we see from Europe, single player games tend to have lower splits that multiplayer games. Therefore the average digital split for PS4 and PS5 as a whole in Asia is likely higher than it is for just Sony first party games. But its very unlikely to reach 70% or 80%, since that would be noticeably above PlayStation's global average.

Ghost of Tsushima was supply contained at launch in Japan, and had a digital split in that country of around 50%.

So I think it is reasonable for the digital split % for PS5 to be in that 40-60 area, and for that to be higher than what it was on the PS4.



I'm not ignoring it, that is my argument. On PS5 people are largely playing F2P games, rather than buying games. It it those F2P games that are currently driving sales of the PS5.

You say you aren't ignoring it, but your entire argument leaves out the room for the fact that games are probably selling significantly better than what famitsu would have you believe and that PS5 software sales aren't struggling nearly as much as you've described.

If the system were to get more popular games (both F2P and non-FP2) then the hardware will do even better. Monster Hunter Wilds and Ghost of Tsushima 2 will help the PS5, so hopefully we see more games with that level of popularity come to the system.




I'm not comparing PS5 software to Switch and I'm not pretending digital doesn't exist.

I'm comparing PS5 software to PS3, PS4, Wii U and Vita and taking reasonable digital splits into account.

See above.

 

[kazuyamishima]

Edit - I've responded to your individual questions below, but thought it helpful for the discussion for me to summarise my position here:

• Software sells hardware. The PS2 and DS sold well because they had popular ganes. This is why the Switch is doing well.
• Having the right price and attractive hardware features does also help.
• Right now, the PS5 lacks popular packaged software outside of FF (and that franchise is less popular than it was on PS3).
• The games that are pushing PS5 hardware sales are mostly F2P. Hence why PS5 total software sales are likely below those of other platforms with similar or smaller userbases.
• A lower price or portability would help PS5. But having more popular games would help it even more.

The price is the only major reason the PS5 is doing what numbers it's doing, better software lineup is only secondary.

The entry price is 60k yen whilst the entry price Switch is 22k yen, that's a HUGE difference.

As I mentioned a couple of times before, the PS4 Slim was 30k yen back in April 2017, inflation is to be added, but wages haven't increased 100% since then.

Lower price + Better options would be the best combo, but the former is more important than the latter.

 

[Woopah]

snip. Even if you're not going to come back, I wanted to reply to these points.

• I think you're ignoring the reality that there is a duality in demand. That software sells hardware is a pretty simplistic view and not altogether accurate these days. If this were true the XSX and PS5 would be much closer aligned in sales. Systems sellers really isn't a thing these days. Many of the most popular games on PS5 are multiplatform games. Hardware pushes the quantity of these games sales more than vice versa. The amount of people who play fortnite on a PS5 is not driven by fortnite but rather the number of PS5s sold.

Fortnite is great example of my point. A game with strong appeal released on PS4 and Xbox One and that had a direct, positive impact on hardware sales. The software sold hardware. If Fortnite and other poplar multiplatform games were not available on PS4, the hardware sales of PS4 would have been lower.

• Price is a massive factor and as we know the XSS has outsold the XSX.

Indeed it has, and we know that lower price has not helped Xbox Series get anywhere near the PS5. Why? Because PS has had a better software lineup than Xbox for over a decade. Sony made all those investments in first party games that we talked about, precisely because they knew that powerful, exclusive software would drive hardware.

PS5 vs. Xbox Series is a clear example of software being more important than price.

• The most popular games in the US and EU are also F2P games, but we haven't seen as much of a decline in software sales. The difference? NPD and GSD report physical and digital whereas Famitsu only reports physical, leaving people to assume the sales aren't there when they have no evidence to back it up.

I fully agree with you that games are selling better than what Famitsu repots. But if you look at those software numbers, and take into account a 60% split in favour of digital, you still end up with very low software figures.

I'm not saying physical alone is low, I'm saying physical and digital are highly likely to be low.

• Having a lower price point would help it sell hardware units, which in turn would sell software units, that would make it APPEAR to have more popular game

Lower price would indeed help. But as we saw with Vita, Wii U and GameCube, lower price can only take you so far without powerful, appealing software.

The price is the on ly major reason the PS5 is doing what numbers it's doing, better software lineup is only secondary.

The entry price is 60k yen whilst the entry price Switch is 22k yen, that's a HUGE difference.

As I mentioned a couple of times before, the PS4 Slim was 30k yen back in April 2017, inflation is to be added, but wages haven't increased 100% since then.

Lower price + Better options would be the best combo, but the former is more important than the latter.

I'm not saying that price isn't important. But PS4 had a lower price and that was also a platform that could have sold more in Japan with a more appealing lineup.

Pre-COVID, the lower entry price didn't prevent Switch doing noticeably worse than PS4 in Europe launch aligned. This is because PlayStation had stronger software for that region.

 

[Mibu no ookami]

Fortnite is great example of my point. A game with strong appeal released on PS4 and Xbox One and that had a direct, positive impact on hardware sales. The software sold hardware. If Fortnite and other poplar multiplatform games were not available on PS4, the hardware sales of PS4 would have been lower.

I said I was done, but I couldn't leave this one alone. We actually have a perfect example of how this isn't really true.

The PS5 got Roblox in October of 2023. I don't think anyone is arguing that Roblox magically started pushing PS5 hardware, in fact Sony still wasn't able to hit their targets, but Roblox quickly became one of the most played PS5 games.

Once again it's hardware pushing the software. Times have changed, but people aren't recognizing that.

The best-selling 3rd party games are almost all multiplatform these days and what determines their sales are the size of the platform's userbase and the mindshare of the platform.

"System sellers" are few and far between because people aren't dropping 500+ dollars for individual games anymore, they're buying into ecosystems.

 

[Woopah]

I said I was done, but I couldn't leave this one alone. We actually have a perfect example of how this isn't really true.

The PS5 got Roblox in October of 2023. I don't think anyone is arguing that Roblox magically started pushing PS5 hardware, in fact Sony still wasn't able to hit their targets, but Roblox quickly became one of the most played PS5 games.

Once again it's hardware pushing the software. Times have changed, but people aren't recognizing that.

The best-selling 3rd party games are almost all multiplatform these days and what determines their sales are the size of the platform's userbase and the mindshare of the platform.

"System sellers" are few and far between because people aren't dropping 500+ dollars for individual games anymore, they're buying into ecosystems.

It's rare but it does happen. TOTK clearly had a positive impact on Switch sales, and I agree with what you said in another thread about GTA.

If the popularity of GTA means "the demand for PS5 and PS5 Pro is going to skyrocket", then I don't see what's so wrong with suggesting that the popularity of Fortnite had at least some impact on demand for PS4 (not as much as GTA).

That doesn't mean people are buying a Switch only for Zelda or a PS5 only for GTA. But it does mean those games are making the system's overall software ecosystem more attractive (as you say).

So Roblox by itself might not make much difference. But if PS5 didn't have Roblox, Fortnite, Genshin, Apex Legends or any of the other popular F2P titles, it's ecosystem would be weaker and the hardware sales lower.

If PS4 hasn't got any Call of Duty, EA Sports, or Sony first party titles, its hardware sales would have been lower

Same goes for Switch. If that platform hadn't received a single Nintendo game, how many units do you think it would have sold? (I'd appreciate it if you at least answer this question. Very curious about your answer).

 

[kazuyamishima]

I'm not saying that price isn't important. But PS4 had a lower price and that was also a platform that could have sold more in Japan with a more appealing lineup.

It has the 3DS, a cheaper Nintendo Handheld that have/had a better lineup for the Japanese market.

 

[Woopah]

It has the 3DS, a cheaper Nintendo Handheld that have/had a better lineup for the Japanese market.

Fully agreed. I think the PS4 would have sold better if its own software lineup had been stronger and the 3DS' had been weaker (e.g, if all those Capcom, SE and Level 5 exclusives had been made for PS4 instead of 3DS).

Though of course it wouldn't be 1 to 1 as a PS4 game takes longer to make than a 3DS game.

 

[kazuyamishima]

Fully agreed. I think the PS4 would have sold better if its own software lineup had been stronger and the 3DS' had been weaker (e.g, if all those Capcom, SE and Level 5 exclusives had been made for PS4 instead of 3DS).

Though of course it wouldn't be 1 to 1 as a PS4 game takes longer to make than a 3DS game.

Tbh, it had an intermittent lineup over there, a few bangers like MHW, FFXV (the bundles helped a lot), and others, price wasn't a factor since it was priced fairly.

But I think it needed more to really increase sales over there. On top of the software problem, the PS5 is having the price problem.

 

[Woopah]

Tbh, it had an intermittent lineup over there, a few bangers like MHW, FFXV (the bundles helped a lot), and others, price wasn't a factor since it was priced fairly.

But I think it needed more to really increase sales over there. On top of the software problem, the PS5 is having the price problem.

This is pretty much my position. Currently I don't see any software for the rest of 2024 that could push PS5 (or Switch for that matter) unless Metaphor is a break out hit or Level 5 returns to their former glory.

Momentum is a difficult thing to regain once lost, but I could see PS5 selling better in 2025 than 2024 if it gets Monster Hunter Wilds, GTAVI, Ghost of Tsushima 2 and a price cut.

 

[Mibu no ookami]

It's rare but it does happen. TOTK clearly had a positive impact on Switch sales, and I agree with what you said in another thread about GTA.

If the popularity of GTA means "the demand for PS5 and PS5 Pro is going to skyrocket", then I don't see what's so wrong with suggesting that the popularity of Fortnite had at least some impact on demand for PS4 (not as much as GTA).

That doesn't mean people are buying a Switch only for Zelda or a PS5 only for GTA. But it does mean those games are making the system's overall software ecosystem more attractive (as you say).

So Roblox by itself might not make much difference. But if PS5 didn't have Roblox, Fortnite, Genshin, Apex Legends or any of the other popular F2P titles, it's ecosystem would be weaker and the hardware sales lower.

If PS4 hasn't got any Call of Duty, EA Sports, or Sony first party titles, its hardware sales would have been lower

Same goes for Switch. If that platform hadn't received a single Nintendo game, how many units do you think it would have sold? (I'd appreciate it if you at least answer this question. Very curious about your answer).

In your argument, without the latter data it would be that sales were just down significantly out of nowhere...

 

[Thick Thighs Save Lives]

Sources:

2024年3月のソフト・ハード売上ランキングが公開。『FF7 リバース』が首位を獲得。『プリンセスピーチ』『ユニコーンオーバーロード』などもランクインし、2年5ヵ月ぶりにTOP5がすべて新作に | ゲーム・エンタメ最新情報のファミ通.com

ファミ通は、2024年3月の国内家庭用ゲームソフト（パッケージ版のみ）とハードの売上データを公開した。集計期間は2024年2月26日～3月31日までの5週分。

www.famitsu.com

【ソフト＆ハード週間販売数】『FF16』が全世界累計販売本数300万本を突破し、首位を獲得！ 『マリオカート8 デラックス』『ポケモンSV』も追加コンテンツが発表され話題に【6/19～6/25】 | ゲーム・エンタメ最新情報のファミ通.com

ファミ通発表の売上ランキング。今回は2023年6月19日～6月25日のゲームソフト＆ハード週間推定販売数まとめをお届け。

www.famitsu.com

 

[Woopah]

In your argument, without the latter data it would be that sales were just down significantly out of nowhere...

The difference is the scale.

If PS5 physical software sales were 37% lower than PS4, I'd agree that an increase in digital could make up some or maybe even all of that gap.

But PS5 physical software is actually 70%+ lower than PS4. And I don't think it's likely that the digital split on Playstation software in Japan has gone from 0% on PS4 to 70%+ on PS5.

Obviously the higher the PS4 digital ratio was in 2014-2015, the higher the PS5 digital ratio would need to be in 2020-2022 to maintain parity in software sales.

Does that help explain my position?

 

[Mibu no ookami]

The difference is the scale.

If PS5 physical software sales were 37% lower than PS4, I'd agree that an increase in digital could make up some or maybe even all of that gap.

But PS5 physical software is actually 70%+ lower than PS4. And I don't think it's likely that the digital split on Playstation software in Japan has gone from 0% on PS4 to 70%+ on PS5.

Obviously the higher the PS4 digital ratio was in 2014-2015, the higher the PS5 digital ratio would need to be in 2020-2022 to maintain parity in software sales.

Does that help explain my position?

Not sure where you got 70% from, but my point is we don't know what the split was then or is now. We do know that there is a digital only PS5 when there was no digital only PS5 and that that digital only ps5 represents 13.6% of the PS5 userbase in Japan.

We also don't know what percentage of sales have now shifted to other retailers. Famitsu doesn't cover Lawson, Amazon, or other online retailers.

I understand your position, my point is that there is too little data coming out of famitsu to make hardline conclusions like you've made.

If we made the same assumptions from NPD and if they didn't cover digital, then you'd make the same conclusion, and it'd be inaccurate. The details of these charting services is really important to parse. NPD used to not cover Walmart.

Ultimately, my point is you have to put a massive asterisk on famitsu sales and really any sales coming out of japan.

 

[Mibu no ookami]

The difference is the scale.

If PS5 physical software sales were 37% lower than PS4, I'd agree that an increase in digital could make up some or maybe even all of that gap.

But PS5 physical software is actually 70%+ lower than PS4. And I don't think it's likely that the digital split on Playstation software in Japan has gone from 0% on PS4 to 70%+ on PS5.

Obviously the higher the PS4 digital ratio was in 2014-2015, the higher the PS5 digital ratio would need to be in 2020-2022 to maintain parity in software sales.

Does that help explain my position?

If Japan is anywhere close to these stated averages, it greatly puts famitsu numbers in serious doubt as to how representative they actually are.

 

[Woopah]

If Japan is anywhere close to these stated averages, it greatly puts famitsu numbers in serious doubt as to how representative they actually are.

The games with the highest digital ratios tend to be ones that don't do to well in Japan (sports and online multiplayer shooters). For example, the biggest PS5 game in Japan in 2023 was FFXVI, and last we heard that had a digital ratio of under 50% in Europe.

I believe that ratio also includes digital only games, which obviously pushes the ratio higher.

So I don't think PS5 has a 70% digital ratio in Japan for games with a physical release. But I could see it having a 45% - 55% ratio for such games. Leaving physical as the other 45% - 55%.