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[Bishman]

http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=36777&topic=17711685

My roomate subscribes to the NPD-trust stock group. It's a system in which the NPD gives out third party company sales for companies. In this case, Konami. On it--it has the estimated 1st week sales for MGS3....

You have to pay for this subscription or online services just to let you know.

1st Week Sales:

MGS3:

650,000 units.

1st Week Sales typically account for 1/2 of the game's total sales. Estimated by the time of Konami's end of the fiscal year March 30, 2005 the game will have sold roughly 1,300,000-1,600,000 units.

MGS2: First week sales are unavailable, however the total run for MGS2 in the United States was 2,000,000.

Thus it seems MGS3 will run a couple hundred thousand short when compared to MGS2.

However, it's estimated the game will make up for that by a stronger PR in Japan, thus:

MGS2 sold 850,000 units in Japan. It is estimated MGS3 wil sell 1,000,000-1,300,000,000 units in Japan.

The decline in US sales is said to be attributed to a loss of interest, growing state of used game purchases in the United States.

Konami needs to sell 4 million units in order to break even and begin to actually make profit on the game.

That's it. That's all the analysis said for MGS3.

For the most part, it'll end up selling just as much as MGS2 and MGS1.

LHK

 

[Matt]

1st Week Sales:

MGS3:

650,000 units.

Fake. There is simply no way that is possible.

 

[Date of Lies]

Metal Bomb Solid 3

actually it's not too bad, better than I expected, personally.

 

[Gribbix]

Konami needs to sell 4 million units in order to break even and begin to actually make profit on the game.

Bullshit. There is no way the game cost that much money to make.

 

[The Abominable Snowman]

Konami needs to sell 4 million units in order to break even and begin to actually make profit on the game.

What?

So this game took over 200 MILLION to make? It topped Shenmue's 180 Million then. :lol

 

[Arcticfox]

I really doubt they spent $200 million to make MGS3.

Edit: Damn I am slow today. Beaten twice...

 

[Miburou]

Well, I would think $10 of the $50 MSRP goes to the retailer and distributer, another $10 goes to Sony, and $5 goes towards pressing the DVD, printing the manual and making the box.

Konami would still be making $25 per game, and I doubt it costs $100M to develop and market MGS3.

 

[SolidSnakex]

Fake. There is simply no way that is possible.

There are games selling 2+million in a matter of days, what's so impossible about this?

 

[Docpan]

Don't listen to anything, I mean ANYTHING LowHighKang says.

He's just some really enthusiastic fanboy who loves to make up numbers and theories on games.

 

[The Abominable Snowman]

SSSHHIIIITTT! If it cost more than 20 Million I would have made a LOOOT more effort to hype up and sell the game than Konami did. Although I reaaaaallly doubt the source in the first place.

There would have been a lot of PR and speculation if it did cost even a third that much.

Halo 2 cost less than 30 Million to make, right? And Microsoft gets the licensing. Sure made a killing off of that.

 

[Docpan]

Again, ignore LHK. Those numbers are fake.

He's a highschool kid with a wonderous imagination.

 

[DSN2K]

Dont post shit from Gamefaqs please.

 

[sonycowboy]

:lol :lol

So many places where this is wrong.

My roomate subscribes to the NPD-trust stock group. It's a system in which the NPD gives out third party company sales for companies. In this case, Konami. On it--it has the estimated 1st week sales for MGS3....

You have to pay for this subscription or online services just to let you know.

1st Week Sales:

MGS3:

650,000 units.

NPD does not get the information from retailers weekly. They used to, but for over two years, they get it monthly usually within a week of the end of the retail calendar month.

1st week Sales typically account for 1/2 of the game's total sales. Estimated by the time of Konami's end of the fiscal year March 30, 2005 the game will have sold roughly 1,300,000-1,600,000 units.

Completely false. There are no perfect metrics as how a game starts off can vary wildly. I know because I've done an analysis of first months sales vs lifetime sales and there is very little rhyme or reason to forecasting future sales from the first one, two, or three months. However, one thing is definite. The first month is NEVER 1/2 of a games total sales. Not even close. The percentage is much, much lower.

MGS2: First week sales are unavailable, however the total run for MGS2 in the United States was 2,000,000.

Wrong. Back in November 2001, NPD did put out weekly totals. I'll have to dig to find the totals, but I'm thinking it was somewhat over 700k

Thus it seems MGS3 will run a couple hundred thousand short when compared to MGS2.

However, it's estimated the game will make up for that by a stronger PR in Japan, thus:

MGS2 sold 850,000 units in Japan. It is estimated MGS3 wil sell 1,000,000-1,300,000,000 units in Japan.

The decline in US sales is said to be attributed to a loss of interest, growing state of used game purchases in the United States.

NPD makes absolutely no comments about game performance, increase or decrease.

Konami needs to sell 4 million units in order to break even and begin to actually make profit on the game.

That's it. That's all the analysis said for MGS3.

For the most part, it'll end up selling just as much as MGS2 and MGS1.

LHK

What a load of crap this thread is. Let's post every stupid comment from every forum. :|

 

[jenov4]

Hah yo go sonycowboy! I mean, 4 million copies to break even? Gimme a fucking break!

 

[Wario64]

IGNers am crying

 

[Mrbob]

I think this is the best part though:

1st Week Sales:

MGS3:

650,000 units.

1st Week Sales typically account for 1/2 of the game's total sales. Estimated by the time of Konami's end of the fiscal year March 30, 2005 the game will have sold roughly 1,300,000-1,600,000 units.

[

 

[Unison]

I really have to play this again some day... The first three hours kind of sucked from a gameplay perspective. Does it improve from there, or is the whole thing a big ol' movie?

 

[Mrbob]

I really have to play this again some day... The first three hours kind of sucked from a gameplay perspective. Does it improve from there, or is the whole thing a big ol' movie?

It improves one thousand fold. Keep on going, the game gets really, really fing good.

 

[mumu]

So this game took over 200 MILLION to make?

Half of that went on Kojima's suits and gator hats.

 

[Unison]

It improves one thousand fold. Keep on going, the game gets really, really fing good.

Cool, I will probably play more tomorrow then...

I *enjoyed* the first three hours, but it got to be a bit much, really. I love the MGS series so I don't doubt you one bit, but when I still haven't finished Half-Life 2 (on the Antlion stage), I find it tough to have the patience to play that.

 

[BeOnEdge]

There are games selling 2+million in a matter of days, what's so impossible about this?

:lol halo 2 and GTA are in a totally different league than MGS.

 

[Agent Icebeezy]

I recall my local babbage's manager saying that this is one that is going to underperform at retail. By underperform, meaning below the series' expectations. I love it, I think it is the best one of the 3. I'm at the part with the electrical wires and shit. This seems to have more cut scenes than part 2. Wasn't that a reason why people hated MGS2, outside of Raiden?

 

[Dead]

:lol halo 2 and GTA are in a totally different league than MGS.

Yeah, several leagues under.

I recall my local babbage's manager saying that this is one that is going to underperform at retail. By underperform, meaning below the series' expectations. I love it, I think it is the best one of the 3. I'm at the part with the electrical wires and shit. This seems to have more cut scenes than part 2. Wasn't that a reason why people hated MGS2, outside of Raiden?

The gameplay hugely outweighs the cutscenes and codec. Just wait til the game actually starts.

 

[u_neek]

Best.game.this.gen

 

[miyuru]

A reply from the GameFAQs thread:

4 million to make a profit??!!? So if they don't sell 4 million and make a profit that means they lost money creating the game? Will that decrease the chance of them making another installment?Does that mean they'll go bankrupt?

Sorry I don't know to much about finances etc.

CHRIST! I think people on GFAQs' forum are all retarded because they need FAQs not only on games, but much more in life :lol

 

[Socreges]

The gameplay hugely outweighs the cutscenes and codec. Just wait til the game actually starts.

No kidding. I was complaining quite a bit after the first couple hours. Cut-scenes were pretty frequent for a small stretch and one was roughly 45 minutes long. But then the game took over. Besides the prologue, nobody would complain. This is nothing like MGS2 in that respect. Especially if you play on a high difficulty and don't sprint through the areas. I'm very, very pleasantly surprised at how minor the story is this time. And it's actually managed to hold my interest!

Best game this gen? Yeah, maybe. People shouldn't have such a built up impression of the game based on MGS2 and maybe even Gamespot's 8.7 (which I'd find very hard to justify, even with their complaints - there's too much good).

 

[Wario64]

I really have to play this again some day... The first three hours kind of sucked from a gameplay perspective. Does it improve from there, or is the whole thing a big ol' movie?

It improves so much that I'm crazy to call it PS2 GOTY

And I don't see how anyone can say this game has more cutscenes than MGS2. If it does, they did a great friggin job cause I must have lost tracked of time becuase of the amazing and entertaining cutscenes

 

[eso76]

I was hyped for halo 2, hyped for hl2, not so much for mgs3.
I loved H2 and i'm loving HL2 (though i find it a lot more 'conventional' than i thought it would be), but Mgs3 takes the cake, definately.
Game Of The Year.
The best chapter of the Solid Trilogy, probably on par with the almighty MG2:SS on msx2.

 

[Laurent]

CHRIST! I think people on GFAQs' forum are all retarded because they need FAQs not only on games, but much more in life :lol

Good one! I actually laught out loud, which I don't do often while reading forums...