I'd look to NFS for a Burnout Paradise 2 like experience. Super sense of speed, crazy antics, crashes and even crazier environments with huge jumps and madness.
What I look to Horizon for is a more in depth handling model that lets you truly get to know each car's quirks, within a more grounded game overall, that also includes over the top aspects.
We get a ton of arcade racers, and I think Criterion makes the best of them, but what Horizon brings to the table is more depth, further along the spectrum towards sim. Throw in cockpit view, manual transmissions, detailed upgrades, liveries, assists, rewind, etc. and you've got something pretty rare in gaming.
I'm getting both. But Horizon is the kind of game I've wanted for a long time now so it has more of my hype. And that from someone who thinks Burnout Paradise is one of the best games this generation. ;P