No, Okada actually is leading with 12. It'd be a tie if Okada loses, and Goto & Nakamura win their respective matches.
Also I agree, this was a great show, with to me the best match of the tournament, and a MOTY contender in Goto Vs. Ishii.
In which Nakamura would advance, since he holds the tiebreaker victories over Okada and Goto. Here's how the rest on the tourney breaks down for the last two nights of block play-
Block A:
Naito: Wins if he wins his final two matches, as he holds the tiebreaker victories against Tanahashi, AJ, and Fale. Since his last two matches are against Gallows and Tenzan, each with only one win, this will require a huge upset against him.
AJ: Wins if Naito loses to either Gallows or Tenzan and has to beat both Fale and Tanahashi.
Fale: Wins if Naito loses to either Gallows or Tenzan, Has to beat both AJ and Yano. Currently holds the tiebreaker against Tanahashi.
Tanahashi: Wins if Naito loses to either Gallows or Tenzan, Fale loses to either AJ or Yano, and he beats both Makabe and AJ.:
Shibata: Wins if Naito loses to Gallows or Tenzan, Fale loses to AJ or Yano, Tanahashi loses to Makabe and ties AJ, and beats both Gallows and Tenzan.
Makabe: Pretty much the same as above Shibata, but also requires Shibata to lose to both Gallows AND Tenzan.
Everyone else is eliminated.
Block B:
Okada: Wins if he beats both Nagata and Nakamura.
Anderson: Wins if he beats both Yujiro and Kojima, and Okada loses to both Nagata and Nakamura.
Nakamura: Wins if he beats both Kojima and Okada, since he would hold the tiebreaker, and Anderson loses to either Yujiro or Kojima.
Goto: Wins if he beats both Elgin and Nagata, Anderson loses to both Yujiro and Kojima, Nakamura loses to Kojima and ties Okada, and Okada loses to Nagata and ties Nakamura, since Goto has the tiebreaker.
Everyone else is eliminated.
I'm excluding stuff like draws here because it would just complicate things more. Once the tournament moves to the Ryogoku the picture will be a lot clearer. Still, Naito is in a crazy good position right now, as he's moving on barring a huge upset (which will, of course, happen, because no way is NJPW putting on AJ vs. Tanahashi without something on the line.)
Another good show last night. I would have pegged Ishii going over Goto for sure (since I picked him to be his next IC title challenger) but maybe they will still go that route.