Gallup: R 52-O 45 Time to Worry?

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Hitokage

Setec Astronomer
Excuse me... he was appointed by Ronald Reagan.

Or is your LOL based on some other perceived inaccuracy?
First of all, while Justice Kennedy has served as the swing vote of late, he's only been somewhat less conservative in those cases than the other four on the bench. He is by no means in the same realm as O'Connor was. Second, Justice Roberts' defense of the ACA comes with huge strings attached on the nature of the Commerce Clause and that alone doesn't really move the trendline of his court away from the dismantling of precedent when given the opportunity. In fact, it's more likely to provide cover from attacks that the court is acting politically while you get decisions like Citizens United.
 

Kusagari

Member
Time to worry? Time to celebrate!

Now Obama can get tons of golf and vacations in, something he's been fond of doing the last four years.

tumblr_m6gjvobsi91rqudbh.jpg


This conservative talking point never gets old.
 

TheNatural

My Member!

Makes sense, since they were discriminated against in schooling, that they obviously wouldn't be able to pass the tests. It was their backroute to discrimination.

I'm questioning the people's intelligence who say shit like Obama is a Muslim Communist who is going to shut a gun shop down the street to open a gay wedding chapel for illegal immigrants though.

I mean, even Obama supporters who aren't all that bright don't go that route of fanatic conspiracy theory against his opponent. I never hear Romney is some closet Nazi sympathizer or something who is going to round up the poor in front of firing squads.

It's just ridiculous how one side is so ridiculously ignorant of everything to the extreme and the other side doesn't go NEAR that far. It gets old.
 

LordCanti

Member
Because there isn't any data supporting that Romney can win Ohio.

He doesn't absolutely have to get Ohio, but it would certainly help. I think election night is going to be very, very stressful for a lot of people, including myself.

If Obama gets Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Virgina, I'm going to sleep. If he loses one or more of those, I'm going to be sweating profusely all night, unless he's taken Florida and at least two of those top four.
 
Like 2004, this is coming down to Ohio, boys and girls, and right now, it's essentially a dead heat there. It's a toss-up, and any intelligent person could have predicted this a year or more ago given the economic trends and historical political trends.
 

Angry Grimace

Two cannibals are eating a clown. One turns to the other and says "does something taste funny to you?"
He doesn't absolutely have to get Ohio, but it would certainly help. I think election night is going to be very, very stressful for a lot of people, including myself.

If Obama gets Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Virgina, I'm going to sleep. If he loses one or more of those, I'm going to be sweating profusely all night, unless he's taken Florida and at least two of those top four.

It would require a lot of very unlikely events for Romney to win without Ohio

First of all, while Justice Kennedy has served as the swing vote of late, he's only been somewhat less conservative in those cases than the other four on the bench. He is by no means in the same realm as O'Connor was. Second, Justice Roberts' defense of the ACA comes with huge strings attached on the nature of the Commerce Clause and that alone doesn't really move the trendline of his court away from the dismantling of precedent when given the opportunity. In fact, it's more likely to provide cover from attacks that the court is acting politically while you get decisions like Citizens United.

The reason Roberts's decision went the way it did was because Roberts's logic is based on his understanding of the Constitution. It's typically conservative, but I've never read any opinion by Roberts which is entirely specious the way Thomas's dissents often are.
 

RDreamer

Member
Like 2004, this is coming down to Ohio, boys and girls, and right now, it's essentially a dead heat there. It's a toss-up, and any intelligent person could have predicted this a year or more ago given the economic trends and historical political trends.

Obama has Ohio nearly locked up. Romney has never really led there. A few polls here and there I think have showed him close, but he's never consistently led this entire election. Add onto that Obama's huge ground game, and it's a win for him. Early voting has already start and Obama has an absolutely astounding lead already. Romney would need to win the remaining voters by like 15+ points to catch up.
 

Kusagari

Member
I find it extremely hard to believe Romney wins Ohio at this point.

The polls didn't even really shift in his favor there after the first debate.
 

border

Member
Like 2004, this is coming down to Ohio, boys and girls, and right now, it's essentially a dead heat there. It's a toss-up, and any intelligent person could have predicted this a year or more ago given the economic trends and historical political trends.

How is Ohio a dead heat? The only poll that shows Romney winning is by like a .6 margin, and all the rest fall in Obama's favor.
 
How is Ohio a dead heat? The only poll that shows Romney winning is by like a .6 margin, and all the rest fall in Obama's favor.

the only polls showing romney winning ohio are from literal shit pollsters

ARG was possibly the worst non-Zogby poll in the 2008 cycle and Gravis... I don't really need to say anything about them
 
The truth is that there is no difference between the candidates. They are two boxes of soap powder with identical content but different boxes. Hope this helps.
It doesn't help. The "no difference" crowd you are a part of are highly irritating with these facile remarks. At best you could say they aren't different enough-- for you. You could argue that. But when you say they're the same, you're betraying a complete ignorance of the issues. There's nothing more annoying than a self-assured person who is patently wrong.

Guess what, the country has to agree by plurality on who will be the president. That means that the candidates and their platforms are going to be representative of the current mainstream left and right platforms. That means you don't get everything you want, you little baby. You won't get half the things you want, most likely. But the only douches and turd sandwiches in an election are the ones who think elections don't have consequences.
 
Time to worry? Time to celebrate!

Now Obama can get tons of golf and vacations in, something he's been fond of doing the last four years.

Love that one. Pretty sure Obama took less vacation time than Bush did, but that's probably going to be bashed because even Republican's like to bash Bush these days.
 
Obama has Ohio nearly locked up. Romney has never really led there. A few polls here and there I think have showed him close, but he's never consistently led this entire election. Add onto that Obama's huge ground game, and it's a win for him. Early voting has already start and Obama has an absolutely astounding lead already. Romney would need to win the remaining voters by like 15+ points to catch up.

Early voting generally always favors Democrats in swing-states, where as absentee voting is usually the opposite. The race is close in Ohio, despite all of the trumpeting of the Democrat bloggers in trying to make something that happens every election seem unique.
 
It's the same here in Missouri. Kansas City, St. Louis and the suburbs of each will vote heavily Democrat, and the rest of the state will vote heavily Republican. In recent elections, that's meant the state has gone Red, although by the slimmest of margins (in 2008 specifically). This time around, it's not up for contention =/

I'm only going out to vote to keep Todd "shut that whole thing down" Akin out of congress.

STL here too. Can't wait to vote against Akin, but unfortunately Nate Silver has MO going red at 97.9%
 

RDreamer

Member
Early voting generally always favors Democrats in swing-states, where as absentee voting is usually the opposite. The race is close in Ohio, despite all of the trumpeting of the Democrat bloggers in trying to make something that happens every election seem unique.

Sure, but Obama won last time and the numbers year over year are even better this year for early voters. And, again, Romney has literally never led in the state. A state that relies that much on the auto industry really is not going to elect the guy that said "Let Detroit Go Bankrupt." Sorry. You'd best start hoping for a different state, because Ohio just isn't going to flip this election cycle. There's no evidence for it yet.
 

KidOmega

Member
It is beyond me how this can even be the nailbiter that it's turning into. Only the most ideologically blind person would not give Obama some credit and acknowledge his achievements.

-Consistent job growth month to month-yes its smaller than we want but it's growth
-A three and a half year low for unemployment since he took office
-rebuilding of world alliances
-he's taken a hammer to Al-Qaeda and took out Bin Laden (sorry it wasn't the Bush policies it was Obama, his team, and the men and women serving the country)
-healthcare law
-student loan law
-ledbetter fair pay act
-DADT repealed

These are just a few but they are BIG things. We're looking at a pretty accomplished president here and I think this is far from being a choice between a douche and turd. Romney is both. Obama is blindly and unfairly hated by so many yet he's done a great job considering the circumstances and the obstruction. He's the president this country needed, but not the one we deserved. So sad.
 
It's the same here in Missouri. Kansas City, St. Louis and the suburbs of each will vote heavily Democrat, and the rest of the state will vote heavily Republican. In recent elections, that's meant the state has gone Red, although by the slimmest of margins (in 2008 specifically). This time around, it's not up for contention =/

I'm only going out to vote to keep Todd "shut that whole thing down" Akin out of congress.

You forgot columbia!
 

Joates

Banned
GAF,

Romney is up by 7% in the latest Gallup. I'm really starting to worry now. I've never been much into politics until the past couple of years. I'm liberal leaning and a democrat. I'm reasonable though so I can stomach a moderate Republican in the White House. Romney terrifies me though. I've never seen such a slimey in your face politician with lies that spill out of their mouths as easily as Romney. His entitled and manic behavior also concerns me.

Please put me at ease. Is the Gallup poll a fluke???

Its clear youre new to politics...

Maybe learn up on your local and state reps if youre actually "getting into" politics because, while the big boys put on a nice show under the big-top, they cant do shit without congress.
 

Jackson

Member
Go go Romney!

It boils down to one thing for me -- the economy. America needs to get back on track economically, there's too many people hurting. Obama didn't deliver.

So now the choice is, do we stick with Obama and hope he actually turns it around in his last 4 years? Or do we give a new guy a shot? And if Romney does deliver then he could have another term to keep it going strong vs Obama's last 4 and then on to someone else to potentially screw it up. If Romney screws it up, he will only get 4 years, since people won't vote for him next time.

It's a gamble either way to be honest.

But Romney does have business savvy. He's not Bush... He wasn't flunking upwards through school and his business ventures. Romney ran Bain Capital and made bank. The point of that company was to buy failing companies and turn them around, which he did with a lot of success. He also turned the Winter Olympics around as well. Obama didn't do nearly enough and Romney looks like he can, so... there's my vote.

I want the unemployment rate down, I want jobs up. I want America's economic powerhouse back. We'll deal with the other issues after that.

But this is GAF, so about 1% of you will agree with me. :)
 

KidOmega

Member
Its clear youre new to politics...

Maybe learn up on your local and state reps if youre actually "getting into" politics because, while the big boys put on a nice show under the big-top, they cant do shit without congress.

I've been playing local too. I'm volunteering in the Beto O'Rourke congressional campaign. He ousted Sylvestre Reyes in the primaries.
 

ezrarh

Member
It is beyond me how this can even be the nailbiter that it's turning into. Only the most ideologically blind person would not give Obama some credit and acknowledge his achievements.

-Consistent job growth month to month-yes its smaller than we want but it's growth
-A three and a half year low for unemployment since he took office
-rebuilding of world alliances
-he's taken a hammer to Al-Qaeda and took out Bin Laden (sorry it wasn't the Bush policies it was Obama, his team, and the men and women serving the country)
-healthcare law
-student loan law
-ledbetter fair pay act
-DADT repealed

These are just a few but they are BIG things. We're looking at a pretty accomplished president here and I think this is far from being a choice between a douche and turd. Romney is both. Obama is blindly and unfairly hated by so many yet he's done a great job considering the circumstances and the obstruction. He's the president this country needed, but not the one we deserved. So sad.

All this despite GOP obstruction. Part of me wishes there were more liberal policies put in place but this country is too far right for that to happen anytime soon.
 

KidOmega

Member
Go go Romney!

It boils down to one thing for me -- the economy. America needs to get back on track economically, there's too many people hurting. Obama didn't deliver.

So now the choice is, do we stick with Obama and hope he actually turns it around in his last 4 years? Or do we give a new guy a shot? And if Romney does deliver then he could have another term to keep it going strong vs Obama's last 4 and then on to someone else to potentially screw it up. If Romney screws it up, he will only get 4 years, since people won't vote for him next time.

It's a gamble either way to be honest.

But Romney does have business savvy. He's not Bush... He wasn't flunking upwards through school and his business ventures. Romney ran Bain Capital and made bank. The point of that company was to buy failing companies and turn them around, which he did with a lot of success. He also turned the Winter Olympics around as well. Obama didn't do nearly enough and Romney looks like he can, so... there's my vote.

I want the unemployment rate down, I want jobs up. I want America's economic powerhouse back. We'll deal with the other issues after that.

Whatever improvement happens in the first year or two for the economy under Romney will be because of Obama's policies. It kills me that if Romney wins he'll get the credit.
 
Go go Romney!

It boils down to one thing for me -- the economy. America needs to get back on track economically, there's too many people hurting. Obama didn't deliver.

So now the choice is, do we stick with Obama and hope he actually turns it around in his last 4 years? Or do we give a new guy a shot? And if Romney does deliver then he could have another term to keep it going strong vs Obama's last 4 and then on to someone else to potentially screw it up. If Romney screws it up, he will only get 4 years, since people won't vote for him next time.

It's a gamble either way to be honest.

But Romney does have business savvy. He's not Bush... He wasn't flunking upwards through school and his business ventures. Romney ran Bain Capital and made bank. The point of that company was to buy failing companies and turn them around, which he did with a lot of success. He also turned the Winter Olympics around as well. Obama didn't do nearly enough and Romney looks like he can, so... there's my vote.

I want the unemployment rate down, I want jobs up. I want America's economic powerhouse back. We'll deal with the other issues after that.

But this is GAF, so about 1% of you will agree with me. :)
Agreed 100%, this is why I'm supporting Romney over Obama as well.
 

dave is ok

aztek is ok
Go go Romney!

It boils down to one thing for me -- the economy. America needs to get back on track economically, there's too many people hurting. Obama didn't deliver.
I hear the best way to help those hurting people is to take away any and all safety nets from them.
 

border

Member
Romney ran Bain Capital and made bank. The point of that company was to buy failing companies and turn them around, which he did with a lot of success.

There's a pretty big reason that not even Romney wants to talk about his experience at Bain Capital. Bain probably killed as many or more companies as it saved.

Even PRO-Romney ads would rather focus on his employment record in Massachusetts, rather than bring up Bain.
 

BobLoblaw

Banned
This whole election's gonna come down to Ohio, Florida, Virginia, and maybe a Wisconsin. National number don't mean shit and the media knows it.
 

squall211

Member
All this despite GOP obstruction. Part of me wishes there were more liberal policies put in place but this country is too far right for that to happen anytime soon.

Didn't Obama have a supermajority in the senate and a huge majority in the House during his first two years?
 

RDreamer

Member
So now the choice is, do we stick with Obama and hope he actually turns it around in his last 4 years? Or do we give a new guy a shot?

Yeah, the choice is do we stick to the guy that has helped us recover so far or give it to the guy from the same party that ran us into the ditch head first? And before you say they're different people, he is literally running on the same stuff Bush did. It's the normal Republican economic policies.

But Romney does have business savvy. He's not Bush... He wasn't flunking upwards through school and his business ventures. Romney ran Bain Capital and made bank. The point of that company was to buy failing companies and turn them around, which he did with a lot of success. He also turned the Winter Olympics around as well. Obama didn't do nearly enough and Romney looks like he can, so... there's my vote.

pssst... you should probably read more about Bain. That definitely was not their purpose at all. Sure they did it a few times, but their purpose was to make money for their shareholders any way possible. They would take out a loan to buy a company, then use the company's assets to pay themselves off in huge fees, downsize and throw out anything and everything they can, then throw the company away. When those companies failed they still made a ton of money no matter what.

Also, yes he did pretty well with the Winter Olympics, but you do realize that he spent a metric fuckton of money given to him by the federal government at that time, right? There were apparently fights in congress because it was such a massive amount.
 

snacknuts

we all knew her
Go go Romney!

It boils down to one thing for me -- the economy. America needs to get back on track economically, there's too many people hurting. Obama didn't deliver.

So now the choice is, do we stick with Obama and hope he actually turns it around in his last 4 years? Or do we give a new guy a shot? And if Romney does deliver then he could have another term to keep it going strong vs Obama's last 4 and then on to someone else to potentially screw it up. If Romney screws it up, he will only get 4 years, since people won't vote for him next time.

It's a gamble either way to be honest.

I don't mean to go all librul-GAF on you, but this "change for the sake of change" mindset doesn't make a lot of sense to me. The grass is not always greener on the other side, especially when you can't see the other grass because it's covered in fog and bullshit. Yes, Romney was a successful businessman. But the fact that he won't/can't detail specifics about HOW he would improve the economy (at least none that add up) should be disconcerting to anyone who wants to give him a shot "just because."
 
Didn't Obama have a supermajority in the senate and a huge majority in the House during his first two years?

You have a lot of people who technically have a D next to their name but in reality won't vote for anything. Like my representative Collin Peterson.

He calls it "standing up for the Minnesota way, and not following the party line!" I call it him actually being a conservative and a moron. He's one of the people who want to repeal obamacare and he's going to be elected again :/

Edit: Dave beat me to it, those damn blue dogs aren't actually blue.
 

Pctx

Banned
I did not make this thread should Obama worry? Yes, yes he should. Personally I feel the Liberal left willing now to say anything that will stick in order to make sure R-money doesn't get elected. Can't wait for our next 45th President, President Mitt Romney.
 
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