Hasn't the momentum stalled following the last debate?
Gallup: R 52-O 45 Time to Worry?
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It's early but I see little evidence of that.
Romney, even after the first debate, showed no real gains in Ohio.
And Romney's chances of winning without Ohio are zero.
Open Source
Banned
Go go Romney!
It boils down to one thing for me -- the economy. America needs to get back on track economically, there's too many people hurting. Obama didn't deliver.
So now the choice is, do we stick with Obama and hope he actually turns it around in his last 4 years? Or do we give a new guy a shot? And if Romney does deliver then he could have another term to keep it going strong vs Obama's last 4 and then on to someone else to potentially screw it up. If Romney screws it up, he will only get 4 years, since people won't vote for him next time.
It's a gamble either way to be honest.
But Romney does have business savvy. He's not Bush... He wasn't flunking upwards through school and his business ventures. Romney ran Bain Capital and made bank. The point of that company was to buy failing companies and turn them around, which he did with a lot of success. He also turned the Winter Olympics around as well. Obama didn't do nearly enough and Romney looks like he can, so... there's my vote.
I want the unemployment rate down, I want jobs up. I want America's economic powerhouse back. We'll deal with the other issues after that.
But this is GAF, so about 1% of you will agree with me.
My reasoning is pretty much in line with yours. We should start Creative Directors for Romney.
It's surprising how many video game people I've talked to in California that normally support Democrats but are saying things like "The industry needs more people with disposable income than we've had the last four years" as their rationale for supporting Romney.
Of course, I think either candidate is going to be crippled by the stagflation bomb that the Fed has been building bigger and bigger since QE1. What's the playbook to fight stagflation? Induce a recession.
While the first new polls are showing that, I don't know for sure if it will hold up. The consensus has seemed to be that Obama "won" the last debate, and way more people watched it than I thought would. I don't know what would be giving Romney this momentum, other than the first debate still, and I guess Bams just hasn't done enough to completely stop it?
I do think that GAF has some of these problems, but I don't think it's because of the predominance of liberals, but the predominance of self-righteousness. There are probably more self-righteous liberals on GAF, but probably only because there are more liberals. I assure you that I see plenty of posters on the other side who are extremely self-righteous, just as I'm sure you do on mine. I am happy to agree that there are quite a few liberal posters on GAF who don't really contribute to the discussions, although I guess we might not agree on who.
In terms of updated polls, here are the polls from Tuesday:
Very tied. Since then RAND, Ipsos and PPP have ticked up for Obama, though, while Gallup ticked down. PPP is actually even nationally now. (I don't really follow IBD and I actively avoid Rasmussen.) I'm not saying the race is way in Obama's favor, but if the Gallup poll is a weird outlier, the race looks a lot better for Obama, and even if it isn't, the swing state polls have been pretty good to him recently -- and that's what matters.
GOP always make huge issues out of petty shit. If they didn't they wouldn't have anything to go with.
Zero? Wow! I'm done here. A word of advice, stop speaking in absolutes b/c the disappointment if he loses will be much much tougher to deal with.
SteveWinwood
Member
Okay sorry. He has a one percent chance at winning without Ohio.
I'd love to see your map of a Romney victory that didn't include Ohio.
Deified Data
Banned
That's for the best, yes.
Substitute Ohio with Wisconsin and Iowa is one way. Guys, this will play out soon enough. We shall see
Wisconsin AND Iowa? Uh, good luck with that.
Open Source
Banned
FL, VA, CO, WI, and one of NV, NH, IA. I think the first three are likely, and the last four are all unlikely. But possible.
So your theory here is...Wisconsin, Florida, Iowa, Virginia, North Carolina, and Nevada? Or Colorado? Which seems more likely to you?
Good luck with more undecides turning to Obama. If they still can't commit a vote to a guy who has been in office almost 4 years what makes you believe a majority will on election day?
Oh, I see. You're Dick Morris.
He still thinks Romney will win decisively....LOL
Because in the end they feel safer voting for the guy that they already know?
Incumbents have a huge advantage in America for just this reason. People here fear the unknown.
I actually think Romney will end up with a significant EC win when undecides break away from Obama. We'll see in a few.
Obama is leading in both of those states right now. Did you look at any state polls before coming up with your analysis here?
I do think that GAF has some of these problems, but I don't think it's because of the predominance of liberals, but the predominance of self-righteousness. There are probably more self-righteous liberals on GAF, but probably only because there are more liberals. I assure you that I see plenty of posters on the other side who are extremely self-righteous, just as I'm sure you do on mine. I am happy to agree that there are quite a few liberal posters on GAF who don't really contribute to the discussions, although I guess we might not agree on who.
In terms of updated polls, here are the polls from Tuesday:
Very tied. Since then RAND, Ipsos and PPP have ticked up for Obama, though, while Gallup ticked down. PPP is actually even nationally now. (I don't really follow IBD and I actively avoid Rasmussen.) I'm not saying the race is way in Obama's favor, but if the Gallup poll is a weird outlier, the race looks a lot better for Obama, and even if it isn't, the swing state polls have been pretty good to him recently -- and that's what matters.
Well, some of those polls have been updated already, and one of those polls is an online one, though I have no idea what RAND is (other than the greatest philosopher, like, ever!).
I do think the same problems would arise, though maybe in a slightly different way, if the board leaned the other direction as drastically. But that is the point; that the lean is severe, and that's what I think is the problem. Believe it or not, if it were up to me, I would like GAF to stay leaning left, just not as much. It serves me no purpose to see what I already believe being echoed again and again. But a few helpful buddies would be awesome
JayDubya forever <3 <3 <3
But what's up with the bolded, dude? I would think there'd be a lot of agreement on who the useless posters are.
For this to happen he would have to win Wisconsin,Ohio,Iowa,NH,Colorado AND Nevada.
Not going to happen.
Yes I have. All within the margin of error with undecides. Got go back to work. No need to point at polls and guaranty victory. We will find out soon and one of us will be right.
Delusibeta
Banned
That's the sort of claim that attracts ban bets. Romney will not win by more than ten EC members, under any circumstances.
Bam Bam Baklava
Member
Ipsos is an online scientific poll not a website online poll.
Ah, good ole' margin of error. Good luck, you're gonna need it.
StopMakingSense
Member
RAND is probably the most notable/well-known American think-tank.
I H8 Memes
Member
If Romney loses Ohio, he's not winning Wisconsin or Iowa.
They don't call Ohio a bellwether state for nothing.
Read through the first page; PLEASE don't write off Florida, guys. In fact, if you have the ability and any time or inclination to volunteer in a state that isn't your own, Florida might be the best allocation of resources available at present. It's still heartbreakingly close and my state picks up on momentum shifts like a poll-attuned neodymium magnet.
If Obama gets our 29 electoral votes (we gained two damn votes since 2008), it's all over.
If Obama gets our 29 electoral votes (we gained two damn votes since 2008), it's all over.
Can't stay away.
. Good ole' discounting Gallup because it says something I don't like. The main reason I see Romney winning comfortably is turnout. There is a very very very small chance Obama can replicate 08' turnout of hope and change/Bush sucks with his argument this year of things are bad but they will get better and my opponent is a horrible human being. Add that to a much stronger republican turnout and I just don't see it happening.Devil's Advocate time...
So its better to vote someone who broke many campaign promises?
Halve te deficit - doubles down.
No more credit-card spending - signs a trillion dollar bill.
Transparency - "don't you want us to pass this bill so you can find out what's in it?"
Both sides of the grass aren't grass - its a swamp.
Fool me once - not again. Dude could have put the brakes on early and decided he'd rather floor it and drive off the road.
This is what many don't like.
Sadly, the right and left control the debate and we can't get 3rd parties up in front of the nation speaking - so many will vote Romney out of disappointment.
Im a Libertarian so go easy on me, GAF. Im not impressed with either candidate. Sucks since I had hope for real change in 2008 and got more of the same result, just a different route was taken to get here.
Doc Holliday
SPOILER: Columbus finds America
I really don't understand some of you. Taxes are already at an all time low and you want to elect a guy who wants to cut them further? What differences are there between Bush and ROmney on the economy?
Obama is not fixing things fast enough?? WTF
The GOP basically helped fuck up the economy and you want them back? It's like bitching at firemen for not putting out the fire fast enough after you set it on fire in the first place.
Also I love how people bring up the Winter Olympics yet completely disregard that he was governor of a state for 4 years. Massachusetts sure isn't voting for ROmney.
Obama is not fixing things fast enough?? WTF
The GOP basically helped fuck up the economy and you want them back? It's like bitching at firemen for not putting out the fire fast enough after you set it on fire in the first place.
Also I love how people bring up the Winter Olympics yet completely disregard that he was governor of a state for 4 years. Massachusetts sure isn't voting for ROmney.
https://mmicdata.rand.org/alp/?page=election
They have a slightly different approach -- RAND and YouGov recontact the same sample instead of taking new samples constantly, and they didn't reflect the collapse in support for Obama after the first debate that other surveys had. Multiple different readings of this are possible, obviously.
I understand what you mean -- this is why I read the American Conservative instead of Mother Jones. I'd also like to have more conservative posters, especially in PoliGAF, but it's a tough row to hoe. I want to believe you guys can do better than Cooter and alphaNoid.
Ahaha. Probably so! Some people are just hopelessly misguided. But there are some specific posters that I think get a bad rap. You probably feel the same way about some mostly despised people.
gutter_trash
Banned
Gallup is oversampling the South.
you can rile up all those southern states to 100% Republican but that won`t change the result from swing states where Republicans are behind by 8%-2% and Obama still wins with swing states
Open Source
Banned
I voted today, actually. My precinct in the middle of one of the most populous cities in California does not have enough registered voters to merit a physical polling place - go figure - so I have to vote by mail.
I voted for Gary Johnson, as well as a few Peace and Freedom party candidates. Also for every Prop that would increase taxes or benefit unions, as I'm going to be moving to another state soon enough and want to help speed California along its chosen path, in the hope that major reforms will take place once the final destination is in better view.
obama has zero chance of losing
If I could go stay with my grandmother in Florida and cast a Floridian vote, I would.
The deluge of ads into the state is going to be incredible if it's not already. If I see Florida go blue on election night, I'm going to sleep. It truly is over if that happens.
I'm sorry...what? You voted for policies that you think will harm the state, just to spite it on your way out?
Jezbollah
Member
As an outsider, but with a keen interest, I really think that this bucks President Obama up. Romney might be quirky, and I shudder at the thought of him being elected, but he and Ryan are a massive step up in competition vs the McCain/Palin ticket.
Obama needs to EARN this election victory, rather than have others put off by voting Republican. That's got to be a good thing for the US going forward.
Obama needs to EARN this election victory, rather than have others put off by voting Republican. That's got to be a good thing for the US going forward.
What about three strikes and the death penalty? Did you chip in a go-to-Hell vote for abolishing those also? If so, thanks!
Joe Shlabotnik
Banned
Can't stay away.
Discounting Gallup for now because it is at least five points off the poll average. If it had Obama up six I'd say the same thing. There's no precise definition of an outlier but that's pretty much what one looks like. If the other polls catch up to it next week then hey! It's an amazing poll that picked up a trend before everyone else. Right now it looks kind of nutty.
Open Source
Banned
Not to spite it, to generate a backlash against the "blue state model". Of course, I could be wrong and they'll end up helping. So, good either way.
Sirpopopop
Member
How so?
I think they did have obama up six before the debate...
Open Source
Banned
I did vote for those, because I support them. They aren't budget-related, and I think the prison/penal system in the USA is a disgrace.
edit: to clarify, I voted for the props, which weaken 3 strikes and abolish the death penalty.
Joe Shlabotnik
Banned
And the poll average was Obama +3 or +4 at the time. It's not the number, it's the deviation from the mean.
Sirpopopop
Member
The last great "conservative" mind on NEOGAF was probably Loki (Note: Conservative, not Republican). DarienA was a solid centrist too, back in the days when he would have been considered a centrist in American politics (now he's to the left). Iceman's nominally a smart guy as well, but unfortunately he offers nothing more politically beyond toting the Republican line.
I have high hopes for CyclopsRock though. I think he has the potential to offer an intelligent counter-narrative.
I have high hopes for CyclopsRock though. I think he has the potential to offer an intelligent counter-narrative.
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