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[Escape Goat]

Montana Republicans are demanding the state spend $750,000 it didn’t budget to avoid what the GOP sees as a potential political catastrophe: high voter turnout in an upcoming special election.

President Donald Trump, however, named Zinke interior secretary, setting the stage for a May 25 special election to fill the House seat. The race has received national attention, particularly from Democrats, who hope anti-Trump sentiment and increased Democratic Party activism since November’s election will boost their candidate Rob Quist to a surprise victory.

State lawmakers concluded that the special election would cost an unbudgeted $750,000, so they set about figuring a way to do it more cheaply.

A Republican lawmaker proposed a one-time mail ballot system. At the time, nobody in their right mind thought the election would be seriously contested ― Democrats haven’t won a House seat in Montana since 1994, after all ― and the state Senate approved the cost-saving measure.

But then something strange happened: The election got real. And Republicans who often boast of fiscal conservatism had a change of heart.

The GOP-controlled state House effectively killed the mail-in ballot bill on March 31, after the state GOP chair, state Rep. Jeff Essmann, wrote a letter to party members warning that a mail system would favor Democrats and hurt the GOP’s chances of holding onto the seat.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/montana-mail-in-ballot_us_58ea6b2ce4b05413bfe3ae5a

Here, Democrats are threatening a stunning special election upset that could signal how well the party can turn Trump's low approval ratings into political gains. And they appear to have an ally in the April 18 vote: Trump himself.

In the first congressional election of the Trump era, a wave of grassroots anti-Trump fervor has positioned Democrat Jon Ossoff, a 30-year-old political newcomer, to possibly capture a House of Representatives seat held by Republicans for decades, one of 24 seats Democrats need nationwide to reclaim the House

With Democrats desperate for signs of hope after Hillary Clinton's loss to Trump, Ossoff's underdog "Make Trump Furious" campaign has endeared him to national anti-Trump activists and pushed him well ahead of 17 rivals in polls. The documentary filmmaker and former congressional aide raised a jaw-dropping $8.3 million in the first quarter, his campaign said.

he district is white collar, educated and doing well economically, with median household incomes of $80,000 versus $50,000 statewide, and nearly 60 percent of adults holding a college or professional degree, more than twice the statewide average. It is also increasingly diverse, and in recent years became a magnet for well-educated immigrants from India and other parts of Asia.

The district was about 80 percent white at the turn of the century. But since then, the black share of the population has grown from 10 percent to 13 percent, the Hispanic share has doubled to 12.5 percent and Asian representation doubled to more than 10 percent.

About a fifth of the district is now foreign born – twice the statewide average, according to census data.

There is a chance Ossoff can win without a runoff, but that's his only chance. He's benefiting from unified Democratic support and Republicans being highly divided," said Georgia-based Republican strategist Joel McElhannon.

Polls show Ossoff hovering in the low 40s, not enough to avoid a runoff. The leading Republican, former Secretary of State Karen Handel, is well behind.

Handel has been cautious in talking about Trump. She said in an interview she expected to work with him on issues such as tax reform and border security, but "first and foremost" she would be a conservative advocate for her district.

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-politics-georgia-analysis-idUSKBN17B0E9


I hope Ossoff is real and not some hype from the beltway. But if Trump's poll numbers stay the same it's hard not to see at least moderate gains. The Senate is probably out of reach until 2020 at the earliest for Democrats takeover. But they really wouldn't need the majority. Just enough to force Trump to deal with Dems on any legislation.

 

[Ac30]

The GOP-controlled state House effectively killed the mail-in ballot bill on March 31, after the state GOP chair, state Rep. Jeff Essmann, wrote a letter to party members warning that a mail system would favor Democrats and hurt the GOP’s chances of holding onto the seat.

Removing options for voting purely on partisan bullshit shouldn't be legal. Hell, removing voting options at all should be illegal. I'm assuming something like this has been brought to the SCOTUS and was somehow allowed to stand?

 

[Killa Sasa]

As they should be. If people vote, they're done.

That being said, it shouldn't take a fucking moron-apocalypse for people to get off their dicks/asses and vote all the time. It might actually force there to be two parties that try to make things better instead of one that is actively trying to make your life worse.

Hopefully it does lead to good things but unfortunately the left/centre/most beyond the social conservative have a way of getting comfortable/apathetic/straight up lazy or missing the forest for the trees.

Keep your fire going yall.

 

[The Kree]

I don't see why. We're too stupid to do better next time.

 

[Magwik]

The GOP-controlled state House effectively killed the mail-in ballot bill on March 31, after the state GOP chair, state Rep. Jeff Essmann, wrote a letter to party members warning that a mail system would favor Democrats and hurt the GOP’s chances of holding onto the seat.

What the fuck?!?!

 

[Clockwork5]

I've heard that before.

 

[Jackpot]

They were concerned about last November's elections too...

 

[Liu Kang Baking A Pie]

What the fuck?!?!

It's not new, that's been a classic argument against its use. Same with the argument for gerrymandering.

 

[Evil Monkey DTT]

I swear if anyone reads this and says "guess I don't need to vote" I'm gonna do nothing about it and complain about you for being terrible.

 

[Einchy]

What the fuck?!?!

I wish this was surprising but the GOP are all about voter suppression.

 

[whyamihere]

Republicans were worried in 2016 and it worked out for them, ergo, Democrats will never win another contested election again.

I mean, come on guys.

 

[Balphon]

What the fuck?!?!

High turnout is generally good for Democrats, so Republicans try to lower it. It's not a new strategy.

 

[Eidan]

What the fuck?!?!

Yes. Republicans stopped trying to hide their intentions a long long time ago.

 

[Dubbedinenglish]

What the fuck?!?!

2018 preview. They will do whatever to hold on to power by as undemocratic as possible.

 

[Ernest]

If everyone who is eligible to vote did so, GOP would lose almost all power.

Problem is, older conservative voters vote at a much higher rate than younger liberal voters.

 

[Odoul]

I don't see why. We're too stupid to do better next time.

Agreed.

Living in Michigan, after what I have witnessed the last 10 years, there is NO cost to being as incompetent, vicious or corrupt as an 80's cartoon.

These politicians and the electorate deserve each other.

 

[Oblivion]

2018 preview. They will do whatever to hold on to power by as undemocratic as possible.

This is one of the major things that makes me concerned for 2018. Even if there's a wave election, if Republicans can enact more voter suppression laws, and shave off enough voters, they'll be safe.

 

[Skyline Owl]

Considering how stupid most voters are... I don't think they should be too concerned. =(


That and the GOP will try their hardest to fuck over voting for Dems and minorities even more. =/

 

[Stinkles]

They're reaching the tipping point where all they have left is abortion and racism. There doesn't even seem to be a corporate voice mediating a need for a holistically strong economy. We're watching them turn governance into quarterly reports to shareholders.

The country is being run to benefit maybe a thousand individuals. Just like Russia. Opiates are our vodka and krokodil.

And yet we're basically always one election away from fixing it.

The number one legislative priority for dems if they ever get a majority should be voting modernization.

Everything from elimination of gerrymandering to secure electronic online voting*. If the latter already existed the GOP would effectively cease to exist.

Actually far more secure and checkable than paper ballots and physical locations. You could run a simple checksum to validate the end integrity.

 

[bodyofanamerican]

And yet the DNC won't put money into the Kansas congressional race with a Bernie-esque Democrat within spitting distance of the GOP candidate. The GOP is panicking and sending Cruz/Pence robo-calls throughout the district, and the DNC says it "can't invest in every race.". Womp womp.

 

[whyamihere]

And yet the DNC won't put money into the Kansas congressional race with a Bernie-esque Democrat within spitting distance of the GOP candidate. The GOP is panicking and sending Cruz/Pence robo-calls throughout the district, and the DNC says it "can't invest in every race.". Womp womp.

The DNC doesn't spent money in individual races. They transfer money to state parties.

Also national money can be counter productive in deep red districts. One of the reason no one has stumped for Ossoff and Lewis only did a web ad.

 

[etrain911]

And yet the DNC won't put money into the Kansas congressional race with a Bernie-esque Democrat within spitting distance of the GOP candidate. The GOP is panicking and sending Cruz/Pence robo-calls throughout the district, and the DNC says it "can't invest in every race.". Womp womp.

What? Where can I read more about this?

 

[Lord Frieza]

Republicans were worried in 2016 and it worked out for them, ergo, Democrats will never win another contested election again.

I mean, come on guys.

Yeah, it's dumb. And it dismisses a lot of factors about that election that won't be at play here and at general midterms.

 

[BotoxAgent]

DNC will fuck it up somehow

 

[Ogodei]

If everyone who is eligible to vote did so, GOP would lose almost all power.

Problem is, older conservative voters vote at a much higher rate than younger liberal voters.

I often try to imagine what a Democratic equivalent of voter suppression would look like: Polls open from 9 PM to midnight and small-print ballots only with no option for large print (but an option for braille), and you can only register to vote via Smartphone.

 

[whyamihere]

DNC will fuck it up somehow

What do you people think the DNC actually does

 

[Stinkles]

What do you people think the DNC actually does

Fuck it up somehow.

Source: History

 

[Lord Frieza]

Why is it that they say the only way he can win is if he wins outright? Is a runoff seen as a death sentence for him?

 

[LegendofJoe]

The state wide election in Virginia on November 7th is the one I'm really paying attention to. If the ground level energy there transfers to votes and the Democratic party can secure control of the legislature I'm going to be optimistic about 2018.

From this point until 2020 it's all about state elections. If we win enough battles there the Democratic party will finally be in a position to enact the lasting reforms we need.

 

[jon bones]

they shouldnt be worried, they'll supress more than enough votes to stay in power

 

[Fracas]

I don't buy it for a second. I want to hope that Dem voters finally got a fire lit under them and we're past apathy, but I'll believe it when I see it.

 

[ClosingADoor]

You'd think mail-in ballots would be better for all those hard working Republicans who got no time for voting being at work 24/7 and all /s

 

[Ogodei]

they shouldnt be worried, they'll supress more than enough votes to stay in power

Suppression isn't an issue in states as white as Montana. The mail-in ballot would've helped Quist for sure, but their Democratic-voters are not the kind of people that can be easily targeted by the usual measures.

Ossoff has more cause to worry about suppression since the reason the district is remotely competitive is because of minority influx recently.

 

[HotHamBoy]

High turnout is generally good for Democrats, so Republicans try to lower it. It's not a new strategy.

Yeah, we wouldn't want the majority being represented, now would we?

 

[Lord Frieza]

I don't buy it for a second. I want to hope that Dem voters finally got a fire lit under them and we're past apathy, but I'll believe it when I see it.

We've already seen it once this year on ND's special election. Had over double the usual turnout. It's mostly a blue state, so it's different, but we'll see how it plays out.

Special and Midterms elections post-presidential ones tend to trend away from the party in powet anyway, so it's not like this is some kind of cosmic idea here.

 

[Ac30]

Why is it that they say the only way he can win is if he wins outright? Is a runoff seen as a death sentence for him?

There's a lot of Republicans running which are splitting the vote. If he doesn't win outright with 50% there'll be a runoff where he'd have to beat the Republican who won the 2nd most votes, in which the Republican is favoured.

 

[Air]

Good. I hope these clowns are voted out

 

[Lord Frieza]

Even if Ossoff doesn't win, the fact that we have the GOP sweating hard about elections in places like Georgia, Montana and Kansas is a good sign overall. And, apparently, they are apparently about to re-open up the health stuff, since that wasn't a big enough disaster the first time around.

 

[Busaiku]

Yeah, we wouldn't want the majority being represented, now would we?

I mean, the general election proves this.

 

[Kusagari]

Hesitant to believe any of this until we see some real results in normally red districts.

Kansas on Tuesday should give us an idea.

 

[Log4Girlz]

Republicans will be fine

 

[bodyofanamerican]

What? Where can I read more about this?

Hunting for a link, but I read it on Twitter from a decent source recently. Believe it was The Hill. Here's a link about Pence and Cruz getting involved:

https://www.google.com/amp/s/kansascity.relaymedia.com/amp/news/politics-government/article143351979.html

However...

The DNC doesn't spent money in individual races. They transfer money to state parties.

Also national money can be counter productive in deep red districts. One of the reason no one has stumped for Ossoff and Lewis only did a web ad.

This is a really good point. You can't have the person perceived as part of the party of Nancy Pelosi in these districts.

 

[TyrantII]

48% of eligible voters didn't vote.

All this shit going down is due to 25% of eligible voters voting Trump.

 

[FStubbs]

I often try to imagine what a Democratic equivalent of voter suppression would look like: Polls open from 9 PM to midnight and small-print ballots only with no option for large print (but an option for braille), and you can only register to vote via Smartphone.

Polls would be open 24/7 but only in large cities. Basically gerrymandering away the rural vote.

Other than that - nothing because the very nature of the Democratic party (a party comprised of various sometimes opposing groups who only have the fact that the GOP hates them in common) means that if a Democrat tried to suppress the GOP vote, they'd suppress some of their own voters in the process.

Also, Republicans will be fine. Running on racism works, especially when you also control what half the population sees as "current events". Also, Democrats have yet to figure out they're fighting an emotional battle trying to use facts and it's not working.

(Like telling Trump voters how often Trump lies and perverts truth. It doesn't matter because they don't care whether Trump is right or not. He's voicing their emotions.)

 

[Lord Frieza]

This is a really telling part of the article, too.

Handel has been cautious in talking about Trump. She said in an interview she expected to work with him on issues such as tax reform and border security, but "first and foremost" she would be a conservative advocate for her district.

The fact that they want to avoid talking directly about Trump is pretty telling, especially at this stage.

 

[SlickShoesRUCrazy]

If and when democrats are back in power, what can we do to make it harder for republicans to vote?

I want to play dirty.

 

[Plaguefox]

48% of eligible voters didn't vote or had their vote nullified due to specious claims of voter fraud.

Addendum. I have to assume the folks who voted on provisional ballots after crosscheck said their names weren't on the list anymore are included in the "didn't vote" list when all was said and done.

Anyone know whether that's true? Every time I see someone quote how awful Democrat turnout was all I can think of is that Republican who gloated that crosscheck was going to win them seats.

 

[Lord Frieza]

If and when democrats are back in power, what can we do to make it harder for republicans to vote?

I want to play dirty.

You really don't have to make it harder for them to vote, just make it easier to vote for your constituents to vote. Making voting days holidays, early voting a federal requirement, gerrymander, etc. They have the majority on their side, so trying to suppress any vote will ultimately be pointless, and probably backfire.

The really thing to keep the GOP back is to keep a solid voting base that continues to go to the polls. That's where the real problem has arisen over the last several years.

 

[Carpe Libertatem]

And yet the DNC won't put money into the Kansas congressional race with a Bernie-esque Democrat within spitting distance of the GOP candidate. The GOP is panicking and sending Cruz/Pence robo-calls throughout the district, and the DNC says it "can't invest in every race.". Womp womp.

Proof that the Democrat is "within spitting distance?" I haven't seen any polling about it. It sounded like the best we could hope for was a close race. Which, the fact that Pence & Cruz are visiting the district is a good a sign. That means the GOP is worried. Not sure it means the Democrat really has a very good chance of winning.

You also don't want to nationalize a race in Kansas where the Democratic Party is deeply unpopular.

 

[Piggus]

48% of eligible voters didn't vote.

All this shit going down is due to 25% of eligible voters voting Trump.

Oregon's voter turnout was around 80% mainly due to our mail-in voting system. You can bet your ass that something like that won't pass in GOP-controlled states. They're not even remotely subtle about how eager they are to suppress turnout.