I'm so sorry, Burb : ( I can't imagine how frustrating it must be for you, to have died again so early.
That said, alarm bells are ringing in my head.
Vote: Crab
Thank you for your constant questions, Hyperactivity: from them I felt that something doesn't ring true about Crab's claim. Your posts emphasize that quite clearly. You also posted a series of possibilities:
Which means:
1) Two switchers (ugh the migraine)
2) One scum switcher, roleblock killer, town vig shoots burbeting
3) One town switcher, roleblock town vig, scum kills burbeting
4) One switcher, doctor got lucky, town vig or scum kill burbeting
Hyperactivity, your possible scenarios have too many variables, and rely on chance. Instead of overly muddying the waters, let's Occam's Razor this shit. You got it right, but between the lines and outside of those items.
I guess we would have to get confirmation from blarg that he got switched, but that makes the most sense for any switcher.
But crab got switched, but burbeting is dead. And there was only one kill.
...
And then this is all contingent on the idea that crab is telling the truth, but if he got a pm another player should be coming in to corroborate his story (probably blarg.)
What did I get from this? Crab is lying about being one the switch targets, and the true players that were switched were Blarg and Burb.
After this possibility was raised by your posts, I then looked at Crab's posts for today
if they were written from the perspective of someone who aimed to kill Blarg last night:
As a heads-up, I was switched today with another player during the night. Got a PM about it. Not sure if the switcher was town or mafia-aligned.
In this post, he's surprised that their kill command didn't work. Crab is our progenitor, so he obviously knows about switchers (as opposed to the others today being unsure about the functions of the role). He quickly does damage control, saying something about a PM telling him that he'd been switched. I'm constructing a narrative, I know, but this idea of damage control was immediately reinforced by nin1000 saying that PMs were still en route:
pm's are being send out ! everyone hold your horses !
Again, I'm impressed at Crab's ability to adapt and cover his missteps:
I was first? D'awww, thank you. :3
Crab didn't get a PM about this at all. Obviously, nin1000 can't respond. He only officially starts the day
two posts later.
Crab's insistence that the other person who got switched claim was also suspicious (emphases mine):
A town switcher couldn't have switched Burbeting into a kill as a protection of Blarg because I know I was at least one of the people who got switched (can the other one claim, please?). If nobody else claims switched, then we know it is very likely that Burbeting was the other one and I was targeted with a kill that ended up hitting Burbeting. If somebody else claims switched, then it was probably just a town switcher trying to confuse mafia by mixing people round - although I do question why they weren't on Blarg if that was the case.
I think it is most likely that Burb was a deliberate target. Snape is a pretty integral character in the HP books, so it isn't hard to guess he'd have more useful powers than what he openly claimed. That means there's probably just a town switcher around. However, I'd like the second switched person to claim just to be sure.
Plus, it makes no sense that after the events of yesterday, Burb would be the target of the NK. Blarg had just single-handedly caused the elimination of the Death Eater leader.
And you said it yourself (and
so did Hyperactivity, hyperactively): why would you be the target of the switch? You've hardly been a talking point in this game, apart from (and because of) your ban.
This post speaks for itself as a testament to your persistence for claims (emphases mine):
Right, so you'll die tomorrow then if there's no other back-up. I assume there isn't because we've had one kill a night so far, and if poison was easily blockable we'd probably continue at one death a night for some time, which seems very unlikely. I'm pretty certain you're innocent now. If you have a role that gave you any information, now would be the time to tell us (given you don't have another time).
If mafia do have a switcher, then tracker/watcher information likely won't be very accurate, which is frustrating. I'm really hoping someone that isn't Blarg comes forward and says they were switched; a town switcher is much more useful.
Finally, Blarg's
recent posts indicate that
he himself knew that he was last night's mafia target.
However, there is another simple alternative (although I don't care for this one at all; it adds chance). There could be no switcher at all, and a doctor protected Blarg. There's some sort of Shield Charm or defense mechanism that protected Blarg, causing the spell to deflect onto Burb randomly. Again, relying on the lore for this alternative, but spells being deflected are not uncommon in Harry Potter (most notably in the first "fight" between Voldemort and baby Harry). This alternative is unlikely because we already had one random death generator (Lupin).
Regardless of which of these two possibilities is true (1. Burb/Blarg being the real switcher targets, or 2. there being no switcher at all), Blarg was obviously the mafia target last night, and
Crab is lying.
---
Another scum/anti-town read:
Lord of Castamere. I mean really; he posted this 41 minutes into the day as one of his ""reads":
Top Town:
Burbeting- Has been a overly active posted and I've seen nothing so far that has arroused suspicion.
Burbeting as town. I guess to his credit, that's a 100% accurate read! While this is the most egregious of his mistakes, this isn't the first. He misunderstood the timeframe of Sawneeks's death by poison (
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=186165569&postcount=1238), as well as misunderstood Rats's power (
http://m.neogaf.com/showpost.php?p=186069788). As I said before, this is just a hunch, but reading comprehension might be difficult if you have to keep up with both this thread and the mafia thread. His defensiveness on D1 was also a typical (but not always a) tell. Leaning scum. (PS. Who else has urged Sawneeks to claim? Crab!)
A final point (I've been writing this forever):
I don't think we should entertain the thought of Horcruxes. Voldemort is no longer in the game. Our win condition is to eliminate all Death Eaters.
(New development! Rynam, wow!)