Not even close; it's nothing like DVD-R and DVD+R. With writable disc formats, you stock product from a variety of different companies, and that product can all sit on one shelf together.
With HD-DVD and Blu-ray, you have to have a physical product for each and every movie title you want to sell. That's a LOT of product. Two formats, you have to have two copies of EVERY movie on the shelf, otherwise a person who doesn't have a dual-format player can't buy your movies. Can you even begin to imagine how much product that is? Take the DVD section of any store that carries it, then double that.
For DVD-R / DVD+R, you need ONE piece of physical product to satisfy customers: a spindle of blank DVD-R media, or a spindle of blank DVD+R media. Because of that, having dual formats existing together really isn't all that big of a deal. With movies, you have content-specific product to stock, and even as large as the DVD section is at your local Best Buy or whatever, they can't begin to carry all of the movies that are currently out there for sale. Now we're expecting that they can carry an equal amount of product for not one, but TWO new formats?
Completely and utterly different situations.