Support NeoGAF

[WrathOfOtaibah]

The GOP machine knows how to spin and spin well.

The Democrats, on the other hand, keep dropping the ball, now almost on a daily basis. All this time between Democrat in-fighting and petty bickering is just giving Rush and Co. more time to sharpen their knives and prepare for the slaughter. We have yet to see the very beginning of the GOP attack and spin machine. They are just letting Hillary and Obama fight each other first, doing the job for them, only poking and prodding the candidates in the meantime. Once a victor has been declared, then it will begin.

It has nothing to do with fears of a woman or black man in the White House. The Democrats are fucking up as usual, showing that they care about extremely petty things and despite all the problems that the Republican administration has caused, the Democrats are doing a poor job at telling people why they need to vote for them this fall. Never has such an opportunity fallen on their laps, maybe not since 1932. If the Democrats can't win 2008, then they should just disband the party in general due to absolute worthlessness.

 

[Tyrannical]

Wow PhoenixDark, I'm impressed.

McCain is fairly popular even with Democrats because he is a moderate, and he doesn't fit the "evil" republican mold. Obama is very liberal, and liberals don't do very well with independent voters.

 

[WingM@n]

Nobody wins, a huge terror attack happens, and Bush declares martial law, he gets his third term. lol.

 

[Father_Brain]

Wow PhoenixDark, I'm impressed.

McCain is fairly popular even with Democrats because he is incorrectly perceived as a moderate who doesn't fit the "evil" republican mold.

Fixed for reality.

 

[Retrofluxed]

Obama is very liberal, and liberals don't do very well with independent voters.

Correct. I vote Libertarian when possible, and I'm going to vote McCain.

 

[Dhx]

Obama is just not a great general election candidate and that's the harsh truth. We've seen this act before. McGovern, Mondell, Dukakis.. all had their base entranced and all had double digit leads at some point over the republican candidate. We all know what happened.

The real difference here is that I doubt that Obama will ever have a double digit lead over McCain going into the general. I would also give McCain an incredible chance at taking New York from Obama. If he takes New York, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Florida, and Texas we're talking a real landslide here. I'm not sure how anyone can be blinded to the glaring weaknesses of Obama in a general election.

 

[Diablos]

McCain is fairly popular even with Democrats because he is a moderate,

No he's not.

Anyway, the Democrats' situation is just getting worse and worse. Just a few weeks ago Howard Dean was like "lulz, we're fine, we're gonna be united" to "SUPERDELEGATES I NEED A CANDIDATE NOW."

 

[tnw]

McGovern, Mondale, Dukakis...

phixed. for all intensive purposes.

 

[Diablos]

Obama is just not a great general election candidate and that's the harsh truth. We've seen this act before. McGovern, Mondell, Dukakis.. all had their base entranced and all had double digit leads at some point over the republican candidate. We all know what happened.

real difference here is that I doubt that Obama will ever have a double digit lead over McCain going into the general. I would also give McCain an incredible chance at taking New York from Obama. If he takes New York, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Florida, and Texas we're talking a real landslide here. I'm not sure how anyone can be blinded to the glaring weaknesses of Obama in a general election.

First of all, Obama has something McGovern, Mondale, and Dukakis did not: charisma. And while it pains me to see star power usually ranked higher than, say, a candidate's actual policy views, he really does have it. AND he's smart. Barack Obama is, oddly enough, the next Bill Clinton. He's very intelligent but also has the charisma and personality to draw in those typically uninterested in politics.

I don't know if Obama could beat McCain at this point either, but I still think you are underestimating him.

At the same time, I am very worried about the Democrats' chances of winning.

 

[PhoenixDark]

Wow PhoenixDark, I'm impressed.

McCain is fairly popular even with Democrats because he is a moderate, and he doesn't fit the "evil" republican mold. Obama is very liberal, and liberals don't do very well with independent voters.

While I agree 100% that McCain doesn't fit the "evil republican" mold, he certainly isn't moderate. He's basically Bush with a conscience. I don't think he would be a horrible president, but I miss the 2000 McCain. This new McCain sold out long ago to get the nomination

 

[Suikoguy]

While I agree 100% that McCain doesn't fit the "evil republican" mold, he certainly isn't moderate. He's basically Bush with a conscience. I don't think he would be a horrible president, but I miss the 2000 McCain. This new McCain sold out long ago to get the nomination

I'll agree with you 100% here

 

[soul creator]

good old fashioned 'cism!

 

[teh_pwn]

The only way I could see it is if:

1. Hillary steals the nomination and destroys the Democratic party.
2. Iran actually does something significant and aggressive, while Iraq becomes magically peaceful.

 

[ToxicAdam]

PD's already beaten me to the punch, but all he has to do is win over +50 whites from Florida, Pennsylvania and Ohio. I've been saying this since February.

Not really a hard task if Obama is running.

 

[demon]

How could John McCain win in November?

If the retarded come out to vote. And don't they usually.

 

[Diablos]

PD's already beaten me to the punch, but all he has to do is win over +50 whites from Florida, Pennsylvania and Ohio. I've been saying this since February.

Not really a hard task if Obama is running.

Would it be any different if Hillary got the nom, though? I doubt it.

If the retarded come out to vote. And don't they usually.

yes they do; how do you think Bush won twice?

 

[etiolate]

Because Hillary fucked over hte dems chance.

Really.

YES.

Look, I thought Obama was already the nominee till I actually paid attention to this stupid circus again and saw that the two were still debating. Why? Hillary is a loss, absolute. Why does she keep it up? Power hunger. What is it costing the dems? Any sign of leadership or fucking sense within the party. The two are going to tear each other apart while McCain sits back and waits for the beaten up victor. McCain is like the Boston Celtics and the Democrats are the western conference playoffs.

 

[Star Power]

Wow PhoenixDark, I'm impressed.

McCain is fairly popular even with Democrats because he is a moderate, and he doesn't fit the "evil" republican mold. Obama is very liberal, and liberals don't do very well with independent voters.

McCain isn't a moderate. The common perception is that he's a "maverick," and I suppose he was at one point, but he's pretty much towing the party line at this point. Even on social issues he's right-of-center. Obama is more of a centrist than a liberal/lefist... I certainly wouldn't characterize him as "very liberal." Pelosi, Feingold.. that's "very liberal".

 

[DrForester]

Because Hillary fucked over hte dems chance.

Really.

YES.

Look, I thought Obama was already the nominee till I actually paid attention to this stupid circus again and saw that the two were still debating. Why? Hillary is a loss, absolute. Why does she keep it up? Power hunger. What is it costing the dems? Any sign of leadership or fucking sense within the party. The two are going to tear each other apart while McCain sits back and waits for the beaten up victor. McCain is like the Boston Celtics and the Democrats are the western conference playoffs.

My personal conspiracy theory, theory is that she KNOWS she will not get the nomination his time. Hillary is a very smart woman, and for all the "we'll steal the election with superdelegates" talk, she's can't be stupid enough to think it will actually win. She's trying to make a closer race at it, while still sabotaging any chance for a Obama win she can. That way in 4 years she can try again, against McCain's re-election. She can say "if you had voted for me, I would have won".

 

[Dhx]

McCain is like the Boston Celtics and the Democrats are the western conference playoffs.

A+

 

[DiscoNaldo]

Sure: By winning Ohio, Penn., and Florida.

Two out of three will suffice.

 

[Dhx]

If the retarded come out to vote. And don't they usually.

This is the base opinion you have to argue against if you're a republican. It's utterly laughable.

 

[Star Power]

I'm beyond confident that he'll win. Iraq may be a problem for McCain, but the fact remains that people really like him and he'll be able to steal many independant, Hispanic, and white blue collar votes from either democrat, especially Obama. He does better than Obama in Ohio right now. He kills him in Florida. He narrowly beats him in Penn. Sure these things will change once the democratic party is unified, but the demographics are in McCain's favor. On the flip side Obama has constantly struggled with blue collar, white voters in states like Ohio, and he continues to struggle with older whites in general. Those are telling signs

He's not going to magically win a bunch of states that usually go red, and I expect his positive numbers among moderate republicans to continue to decrease as the GOP mud machine smears the shit out of him. There's an interesting article in Newsweek about the GOP's plan to "wimp-ify" Obama ala Kerry, and it won't be hard to do with all the question marks concerning his patriotism and judgement with respect to shady relationships. I AM NOT QUESTIONING HIS PATRIOTISM, but if you think those little issues will be meaningless in October you're wrong

You make a good argument, but ultimately I think a Democrat will win because ALL of the issues lean democrat, the economy is in the shithouse and historically the incumbent part isn't re-elected during a recession, etc. I think that it's going to be an uphill battle for any Democratic nominee in the GE, but Obama will win. He will lose Florida, but he can pick up purple states like Missouri and Colorado. I think he'll take Pennsylvania pretty easy (Philli + Rendell), Ohio is a toss-up, I'm leaning McCain but if he picks Ted Strickland as his veep he can pick it up. If he picks Kathleen Sebelius, Kansas becomes a real possibility (she has very high approval ratings.. plus she can help re-gain some of the Hillary voters who flock to McCain after Obama wins). I don't think that the painting of Obama was some sort of effete, snobbish wimpy liberal is going to work - he has a fairly strong personality, can get agressive if need be, and has shown that he will confront attacks instead of allowing them to fester a la Kerry.. And, frankly, I don't think non-issues like flagpins and bill ayers will have any traction. Reverend Wright will be brought up again, surely, but I don't think it has that much legs as an issue TBH - and even if it damages him I don't see it as a fatal blow.

The key to beating McCain really is just chipping away at his so-called "maverick" image.. I think once Obama & McCain start debating on the issues it'll become clear that McCain isn't very different from the current policies and his poll numbers will decrease sharply. Plus, Obama will have tons more money than McCain...

 

[ronito]

Because Hillary fucked over hte dems chance.

Really.

YES.

Look, I thought Obama was already the nominee till I actually paid attention to this stupid circus again and saw that the two were still debating. Why? Hillary is a loss, absolute. Why does she keep it up? Power hunger. What is it costing the dems? Any sign of leadership or fucking sense within the party. The two are going to tear each other apart while McCain sits back and waits for the beaten up victor. McCain is like the Boston Celtics and the Democrats are the western conference playoffs.

Two words Vengance votes. It's been said by many, "Your vote for Hillary today is my vote for a third party candidate tomorrow" certainly her running a republican campaign has alienated her from a large section of Democrats that don't want to see that crap in the party. Everyone says about the democrats swelling up behind the candidate regardless who it is. Hillary will be proof that you can't alienate half your base and have that be true.

 

[grandjedi6]

So did anyone actually read the article in the OP? Because most of you have clearly not read the article and are instead just replying to the thread title.

 

[grandjedi6]

Obama is just not a great general election candidate and that's the harsh truth. We've seen this act before. McGovern, Mondell, Dukakis.. all had their base entranced and all had double digit leads at some point over the republican candidate. We all know what happened.

The real difference here is that I doubt that Obama will ever have a double digit lead over McCain going into the general. I would also give McCain an incredible chance at taking New York from Obama. If he takes New York, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Florida, and Texas we're talking a real landslide here. I'm not sure how anyone can be blinded to the glaring weaknesses of Obama in a general election.

Are you insane?

I'm beyond confident that he'll win. Iraq may be a problem for McCain, but the fact remains that people really like him and he'll be able to steal many independant, Hispanic, and white blue collar votes from either democrat, especially Obama. He does better than Obama in Ohio right now. He kills him in Florida. He narrowly beats him in Penn. Sure these things will change once the democratic party is unified, but the demographics are in McCain's favor. On the flip side Obama has constantly struggled with blue collar, white voters in states like Ohio, and he continues to struggle with older whites in general. Those are telling signs

He's not going to magically win a bunch of states that usually go red, and I expect his positive numbers among moderate republicans to continue to decrease as the GOP mud machine smears the shit out of him. There's an interesting article in Newsweek about the GOP's plan to "wimp-ify" Obama ala Kerry, and it won't be hard to do with all the question marks concerning his patriotism and judgement with respect to shady relationships. I AM NOT QUESTIONING HIS PATRIOTISM, but if you think those little issues will be meaningless in October you're wrong

And I'm very confident Obama will win. Sorry PD, but I trust Larry Sabato a million times more than you on political and election related things

 

[MightyHedgehog]

My view is that McCain's fortunes are inextricably tied with that of the current administration. And it can only get worse for Bush & Co as the year wears on.

 

[BigDug13]

^ - I agree

"Dubya" still has the rest of this year to continue to plunge the Republican Party into oblivion before the election.

 

[Diablos]

I don't know if Bush can hurt the party more than he already has, really.

 

[grandjedi6]

I don't know if Bush can hurt the party more than he already has, really.

Bush campaigning for McCain

 

[Jasoco]

Thanks to Bush, I am now a Democrat.

 

[SpeedingUptoStop]

Thanks to Bush, I am now a Democrat.

me too.

My brother seems convinced that McCain will win. Then again, he's a die hard republican (for no real reason) and a dumbass. This thread is giving me ammo to such his ass up, thanks guys.

 

[Diablos]

Bush campaigning for McCain

If McCain was smart he'd publically denounce Bush doing anything more than some, shall I say, casual support.

Hardcore Republicans, regardless of how much such a statement would piss them off, would still vote if they had planned to because Hillary/Obama is satan. But most importantly, such a statement would really let him get a bunch of independent voters who are not fond of Bush (but leaning towards McCain for whatever reasons in their pea-sized brains).

 

[typhonsentra]

Obama has a ton of weaknesses thanks to the prolonged primary, but I'm still confident that he can ultimately beat McCain. Pennsylvania will be harder than it should be but even polling in this down and dirty period shows him narrowly leading there.

 

[Gig]

Don't get your hopes down people, even if the Dems lose the Whitehouse, they're still going to pick up a good chunk of House and Senate seats. Foster was just the beginning.

 

[grandjedi6]

If McCain was smart he'd publically denounce Bush doing anything more than some, shall I say, casual support.

Hardcore Republicans, regardless of how much such a statement would piss them off, would still vote if they had planned to because Hillary/Obama is satan. But most importantly, such a statement would really let him get a bunch of independent voters who are not fond of Bush (but leaning towards McCain for whatever reasons in their pea-sized brains).

A public denouncement of Bush would angry and scare away the 30% left that support Bush. They are already wary of McCain in the first place and an actual denouncement would just have them not vote. Just imagine how Rush limbaugh would react

But at the same time agreeing with Bush scares away the other 20% McCain needs to win. So its a fine line McCain has to walk in order to get the numbers he needs. Distance from Bush while not offending him. (and Bush is so going to campaign for him no matter what McCain actually wants)

 

[speculawyer]

Will shoot themselves in the foot? They already are. This mud-slinging bout between Hillary and Obama is poison.

Yeah, they are sure doing a good job of sinking themselves.

Brush it off Obama.

 

[PhoenixDark]

And I'm very confidnt Obama will win. Sorry PD, but I trust Larry Sabato a million times more than you on political and election related things

God knows why; there are some pretty bad arguments in that argument. First off, Reagan voters didn't flock to Ford after he secured the nomination; there was little enthusiasm and Reagan fans waited 4 years to get who they really wanted

Second, his whole argument about McCain needing the 30% who supports Bush, plus 20% who don't is far too simplistic. McCain is going to carry the vast majority of republicans and conservatives in the country, which will be more than 30%. Sabato admits that McCain will be able to argue that the prospect of democrats controlling the house/senate and presidency would be a nightmare for conservatives, something conservatives already know. If the democrats win the presidency they'll be able to overturn many of Bush's policies, and more importantly change the fabric of the SC. That prospect alone will fire up the core conservative base and ensure October fireworks.

Sabato totally ignores the fact that McCain is not an ordinary republican, and will be able to sway voters who would normally vote against the incumbent party. He's going to do well with independents, as he has always done. If Obama is the nominee McCain will be able to win the Hispanic vote, perhaps by larger numbers than Bush did in 2004.

Historical arguments aren't particularly strong when used to describe a climate such as 2008, which is far from ordinary.

 

[tnw]

If the retarded come out to vote. And don't they usually.

they certainly did in 2004!

 

[grandjedi6]

God knows why; there are some pretty bad arguments in that argument. First off, Reagan voters didn't flock to Ford after he secured the nomination; there was little enthusiasm and Reagan fans waited 4 years to get who they really wanted

Second, his whole argument about McCain needing the 30% who supports Bush, plus 20% who don't is far too simplistic. McCain is going to carry the vast majority of republicans and conservatives in the country, which will be more than 30%. Sabato admits that McCain will be able to argue that the prospect of democrats controlling the house/senate and presidency would be a nightmare for conservatives, something conservatives already know. If the democrats win the presidency they'll be able to overturn many of Bush's policies, and more importantly change the fabric of the SC. That prospect alone will fire up the core conservative base and ensure October fireworks.

Sabato totally ignores the fact that McCain is not an ordinary republican, and will be able to sway voters who would normally vote against the incumbent party. He's going to do well with independents, as he has always done. If Obama is the nominee McCain will be able to win the Hispanic vote, perhaps by larger numbers than Bush did in 2004.

Historical arguments aren't particularly strong when used to describe a climate such as 2008, which is far from ordinary.

Are you trying to pretend that you know more about elections than Larry Sabato? Really?

1.) Reagan voters did go back to Ford. If they didn't, Carter would have beaten Ford by a landslide. 1976 was a pretty close election and there wasn't really any Republican defection.

2.) You are making the false assumption that everyone who voted for Bush will vote for McCain. In reality alot of the independents and leaning-Republican voters are going to be upset at the Bush administration and the economy. Like Sabato said, they aren't going to reward the dominant party for that. Also, McCain is walking the fine line of courting independents but not pissing off the base. And that is far harder job than you think.

3.) Yes McCain has the maverick image. But how will that image hold up when the Bush-McCain comparisions go into full swing? Also, as was mentioned before, alot of voters are going to vote against McCain as a way of voting against the current administration

4.) Historical arguments are always apt, especially in politics.

Seriously PD, I think you are underestimating Sabato's knowledge. The guy is professor of politics and his accuracy of predicting election results is astounding

 

[golem]

Are you trying to pretend that you know more about elections than Larry Sabato? Really?

Sabato, April, 2004:

Some good luck on Iraq, the war on terrorism, and the many facets of the economy can save Bush, and maybe even propel him to a substantial victory that would wipe out memories of 2000. Maybe. Right now, this scenario seems very far out of reach, an electoral pipedream for a beleaguered leader. And there are only 203 days until Bush's latest rendezvous with destiny.

http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/article.php?id=LJS2004041301

 

[ralexand]

It's about energy. How energized is the right wing going to be to support McCain? I'm not seeing it. If the turnout numbers and donation numbers are correct you definitely see energy on Obama's side. They'll likely split the independents and AA turnout should be at a record level. Can McCain counter this with record turnout from his republican base. Again, I don't see it.

 

[twinturbo2]

Hillary.

.

 

[Son of Godzilla]

By appealing to the racist fuckwits of Ohio is how McCain can win.

 

[Dhx]

Are you insane?

Let's play this game.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/04/09/poll-clintonobama-dream-t_n_95930.html

http://www.maristpoll.marist.edu/nyspolls/GV080409.htm

Tag, you're it.

 

[grandjedi6]

Sabato, April, 2004:


http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/article.php?id=LJS2004041301

And? Sabato said Bush would lose if Americans remained unsettled and that Bush would have to get lucky. And he did for the most part. Americans became more settled, cared less about the badly going Iraq War, the economy was fine, and, as Sabato mentioned, Kerry was a weak candidate. Also, in that same month of April 2004, Sabato correctly predicted that Edwards would not be able to win North Carolina if he was the veep.

I am not saying Sabato won't be wrong. Even despite Sabato's great prediction accuracy, everyone is wrong sometime. I just think that PD is really underestimating Sabato and his arguments

 

[grandjedi6]

Let's play this game.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/04/09/poll-clintonobama-dream-t_n_95930.html

http://www.maristpoll.marist.edu/nyspolls/GV080409.htm

Tag, you're it.

1.) That is just a hypothetical match up between a McCain/Condi ticket vs a Hillary/Obama ticket. But that is not going to be the actual General election match up

2.) That is only one poll.

 

[JohnTinker]

News. Cycles.

 

[Clevinger]

I think the GOP would tear Clinton to pieces and it'd unite their party like nothing else could.

As for Obama, we'll just have to see what the polls look like with Obama standing next to McCain and after he runs circles around him in debates. The more they talk side by side, the more it'll look bad for McCain. The Democrats also need to show the public how much of a flip flopper he is and how much of a joke the public's/media's perceived maverick image of him is.

I could see it go either way. Depends on the media narrative. Which, as I type that, makes me really sad.

 

[Alcibiades]

Because he tends to be more of a liberal, McCain does alienate a lot of the Republican base, but I think a lot of that base is in Southern states where he was going to win anyways. Plus, I think a lot of Republicans would choose a liberal Republican that is still conservative on some issues than a liberal Democrat they disgree with 100%.

Just this past week on Rush Limbaugh's show, a caller fantasized about giving the Democrats McCain so they could settle on a candidate while having the Republicans have their own smoke-filled deal to get in a true conservative in with Limbaugh, Coulter, and Gingrich being judges.

I agree with PD though, if McCain can win Pennslyvania, Ohio, and Florida, he will almost certainly be the next President. He just needs to make sure he doesn't get too conservative and alienates moderates and independents who view Obama as too liberal (after George Bush they'd take too liberal over too conservative I think).