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How much did the Iraq invasion contribute to today's terror climate?

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With large-scale ISIS-linked terrorist attacks in Paris and now Brussels, along with smaller ISIS-linked attacks in San Bernardino and a host of other cities, I've been wondering how much of this would still be happening if the U.S. had never invaded and destabilized Iraq.

Al-Qaeda would still exist, but does a terrorist group controlling territory on a large scale increase their ability to work overseas by this degree?

If we had never overthrown Saddam, is it possible an Islamic State still would have come into being in places like Syria and Libya?

Conversely, and I typically despise people who use this argument for cheap political points, but how much different could things be if U.S. troops had remained in Iraq after 2011, and how much blame should Obama get for the subsequent fall of much of Iraq to ISIS forces?
 
ISIS in its current form would in no way exist if the US had not invaded a country that had never attacked them for made up reasons that weren't verified by anyone.
 

Blader

Member
ISIS grew out of al-Qaeda in Iraq, which would have never existed if the U.S. had not invaded Iraq and toppled Saddam. Or at the very least, not completely dismantled the Baathist government and military.
 
ISIS in its current form would in no way exist if the US had not invaded a country that had never attacked them for made up reasons that weren't verified by anyone.

Pretty much this. And the worst part is that folks like Cheney knew exactly what would happen a decade before the US invaded. Check it out: https://youtu.be/6BEsZMvrq-I

This was, of course, before he was involved with Halliburton. His time changed after that.
 

Nephtis

Member
Pretty much this. And the worst part is that folks like Cheney knew exactly what would happen a decade before the US invaded. Check it out: https://youtu.be/6BEsZMvrq-I

This was, of course, before he was involved with Halliburton. His time changed after that.

Yep.

Saddam was doing a lot to keep the stability of the region - he wasn't a good guy for sure, but he kept a lot of the BS we're seeing at bay.
 

Chariot

Member
Yes.

And before somebody says that nobody could've seen this coming, here's Bernie Sanders arguing that the US shouldn't invade Iraq in 2002.
Fifth, I am concerned about the problems of so-called unintended consequences. Who will govern Iraq when Saddam Hussein is removed and what role will the U.S. play in ensuing a civil war that could develop in that country? Will moderate governments in the region who have large Islamic fundamentalist populations be overthrown and replaced by extremists? Will the bloody conflict between Israel and the Palestinian Authority be exacerbated? And these are just a few of the questions that remain unanswered.
And it's not like Bernie is psychic, other people surely could've have those thought too, they just refused. The US fucked up big time.
 
The toppling of Sadam left a power vacuum in Iraq that, for a while, was filled by the US military. Now we've pretty much pulled out of Iraq due to political pressure and the American people not having the appetite for committing troops for the foreseeable future. There was bound to be some group that would move in and take advantage of a country in complete disarray.

So if you want to point the finger, you could say that Bush made the initial mess, the Obama made things worse by withdrawing and leaving a government propped up on toothpicks to run the show.
 

Jacobi

Banned
Saudia-Arabia is also contributing a lot, so I believe we would have that terror climate without an Iraq invasion as well.

Not saying the world wouldn't look hugely different without Iraq invasion and Arab spring...
 

ExVicis

Member
ISIS grew out of al-Qaeda in Iraq, which would have never existed if the U.S. had not invaded Iraq and toppled Saddam. Or at the very least, not completely dismantled the Baathist government and military.
Not just al-Qaeda, a lot of the leadership are former Iraqi military officers. So quite directly the invasion of Iraq is responsible for much of the current ISIS problems.
 

Chariot

Member
Saudia-Arabia is also contributing a lot, so I believe we would have that terror climate without an Iraq invasion as well.

Not saying the world wouldn't look hugely different without Iraq invasion and Arab spring...
The invasion isn't responsible for every bit of terrorism. How ever it had major impact on multiple levels. Starting with the power vacuum that allowed ISIS and other groups to seize power and was a contributing factor in destroying stability in the region.
 
Had Bremer not issued Order Number 2 and dissolved the Iraqi army, ISIS would not be as strong as it is today. A lot of their top guys are secular generals from Saddam's army.
 

A Fish Aficionado

I am going to make it through this year if it kills me
A lot. I remember watching a pbs documentary on Saddam and one of the things it pointed out was the things line that existed between his power and sectarian violence.
 
Not just al-Qaeda, a lot of the leadership are former Iraqi military officers. So quite directly the invasion of Iraq is responsible for much of the current ISIS problems.
Yep. All the ISIS commanders are former Baath generals and officers from Saddam's army. The former Baathists have formed the majority of the bureaucracy inside ISIS government as well, pushing papers, working deals and making the whole damn caliphate function as an entity.
 

GhaleonEB

Member
ISIS in its current form would in no way exist if the US had not invaded a country that had never attacked them for made up reasons that weren't verified by anyone.

Yup.

This War Will Destabilize The Entire Mideast Region And Set Off A Global Shockwave Of Anti-Americanism

George W. Bush may think that a war against Iraq is the solution to our problems, but the reality is, it will only serve to create far more.

This war will not put an end to anti-Americanism; it will fan the flames of hatred even higher. It will not end the threat of weapons of mass destruction; it will make possible their further proliferation. And it will not lay the groundwork for the flourishing of democracy throughout the Mideast; it will harden the resolve of Arab states to drive out all Western (i.e. U.S.) influence.

If you thought Osama bin Laden was bad, just wait until the countless children who become orphaned by U.S. bombs in the coming weeks are all grown up. Do you think they will forget what country dropped the bombs that killed their parents? In 10 or 15 years, we will look back fondly on the days when there were only a few thousand Middle Easterners dedicated to destroying the U.S. and willing to die for the fundamentalist cause. From this war, a million bin Ladens will bloom.

And what exactly is our endgame here? Do we really believe that we can install Gen. Tommy Franks as the ruler of Iraq? Is our arrogance and hubris so great that we actually believe that a U.S. provisional military regime will be welcomed with open arms by the Iraqi people? Democracy cannot possibly thrive under coercion. To take over a country and impose one's own system of government without regard for the people of that country is the very antithesis of democracy. And it is doomed to fail.

A war against Iraq is not only morally wrong, it will be an unmitigated disaster.

The Onion, 2003.
 

Spartacus

Member
ISIS in its current form would in no way exist if the US had not invaded a country that had never attacked them for made up reasons that weren't verified by anyone.

One and done.

It's a matter of action-reaction. The western world created the base where extremism and terrorism easily grows. We removed an evil power to make room for a worse party. What saddens me is that a lot of people still believe that a similar approach to this situation will give a different outcome.
 
Violent people with nothing to lose are going to act out either way.

The Iraq war simply influenced where they decided to aim their crosshairs.
 
ISIS was founded by ex-Baathists, who were originally Saddam Hussein loyalists.

Once Hussein was ousted, the Baathists went full insurgency mode and that insurgency became the Islamic State.

So, the Iraq invasion was 100% responsible for ISIS. If Saddam Hussein was still in power today, ISIS would not exist.
 

Akuun

Looking for meaning in GAF
The really sad part is that the counterpoint there is arguing exactly the same way Trump does.

Except that Trump's speech patterns is even more annoying to deal with.

Sprinkle a bunch of "I know these things, trust me, believe me, I know better than anyone, I know a lot of people the best people to talk to about these things" bullshit into the counterpoint and you have a Trump refute.
 
ISIS grew out of al-Qaeda in Iraq, which would have never existed if the U.S. had not invaded Iraq and toppled Saddam. Or at the very least, not completely dismantled the Baathist government and military.

Yup. Who'd have thunk setting loose a bunch of disenfranchised ex-military in an unstable, war torn climate would have led to bad news?
 

Hatty

Member
There was an excellent podcast that explained how mismanaged the invasion and the following occupancy was of Iraq. I wish I could find it but after listening to it I'm not surprised about how radical some groups became
 

emag

Member
With large-scale ISIS-linked terrorist attacks in Paris and now Brussels, along with smaller ISIS-linked attacks in San Bernardino and a host of other cities, I've been wondering how much of this would still be happening if the U.S. had never invaded and destabilized Iraq.

Al-Qaeda would still exist, but does a terrorist group controlling territory on a large scale increase their ability to work overseas by this degree?

If we had never overthrown Saddam, is it possible an Islamic State still would have come into being in places like Syria and Libya?

You realize that the US also overthrew the government in Libya, which allowed ISIS a foothold there, and supported the rebels against Assad in Syria, which allowed ISIS to flourish there as well? The US has held a disastrous approach to the Middle East since at least the Iraq invasion and doubled down with the "Arab Spring". I can see arguments to either support autocrats and use diplomacy to enact modest reforms and promote human rights or dedicate the resources to toppling them and rebuilding a civil society; we've done a half-assed job of both instead, which has led to wide-scale atrocities and the rise of ISIS. (The US fear/hatred/distrust of Iran after the '79 revolution and proxy wars with the USSR throughout the 80s have certainly played their part in all of this, but there was a pretty good stretch of time between that and the post-9/11 invasion of Iraq.)

Conversely, and I typically despise people who use this argument for cheap political points, but how much different could things be if U.S. troops had remained in Iraq after 2011, and how much blame should Obama get for the subsequent fall of much of Iraq to ISIS forces?

I don't know if there was the political or public will to fix Iraq at that point, unfortunately. Still, the president is the commander in chief and in charge of our foreign policy, so the buck ought to stop with him.
 

Abounder

Banned
Al-Qaeda would still exist, but does a terrorist group controlling territory on a large scale increase their ability to work overseas by this degree?

Yes because they capture $millions in oil and military assets, and presence helps their recruiting
If we had never overthrown Saddam, is it possible an Islamic State still would have come into being in places like Syria and Libya?

It is possible since western powers would still hawk even (or especially) if Saddam was still around

Conversely, and I typically despise people who use this argument for cheap political points, but how much different could things be if U.S. troops had remained in Iraq after 2011, and how much blame should Obama get for the subsequent fall of much of Iraq to ISIS forces?

Only way to nation-build is to stay in the country for decades and spend $trillions ala South Korea and Japan. Anything else is just a bad joke. Foreign policy in the middle east is a disaster for both Reps and Dems
 

Diodiablo

Banned
Clearly a lot, the destabilization of the region started with that. The so-called Arab Spring is equally responsible, as it has further destabilized the region with explosions of violence in Syria, Libya and Egypt. Al-Qaeda existed before that, but it has found a very useful void of power in the area because of those events.
 

GhaleonEB

Member
The really sad part is that the counterpoint there is arguing exactly the same way Trump does.

Except that Trump's speech patterns is even more annoying to deal with.

Sprinkle a bunch of "I know these things, trust me, believe me, I know better than anyone, I know a lot of people the best people to talk to about these things" bullshit into the counterpoint and you have a Trump refute.

I didn't realize it, but yeah, that's correct. It was also the attitude at the time before the war, but Trump's approach actually reads just like the satire.
 
There was an excellent podcast that explained how mismanaged the invasion and the following occupancy was of Iraq. I wish I could find it but after listening to it I'm not surprised about how radical some groups became

The extremist groups and ba'athists that we paid off to help us during the occupation (tons of money) were the ones that formed IS. They were helping us.
 
I'm happy to see this topic separate from the Brussels thread where a lot of people seemed to be denying that Iraq and Western intervention in general played a part in this.
 

xenist

Member
Let's see.

The remnants of the resistance Saddam activated are now ISIS. The Kurds gained more power thereby inducing Turkey to widely use violent means either in country or by proxy out of it. Iran, with Iraq a useless puppet state, is now a much more active regional power. This gave the region's Shiites hopes of greater power which caused Saudi Arabia to become more overtly (Yemen) and covertly (Syria) interventionist. Saudi Arabia opened the oil floodgates, dropping its price, hurting Russia which in turn decided to power project in the Middle East after decades as a show of force.

Overall, the invasion was pretty successful. If you measure success by damage caused.
 
Not just al-Qaeda, a lot of the leadership are former Iraqi military officers. So quite directly the invasion of Iraq is responsible for much of the current ISIS problems.

that US military disolved (terrible decision) upon taking bagdad. Leading to all military and former leaders to be on the loose with no more role to play in the future of the country
 
I think this form of historical revisionism is difficult because you can keep going back to an earlier point and say that X would not have happened if Y did not happen, and it removes blame from groups that are actively contributing to terrorist attacks.

However, it is without a doubt that ISIS would not exist in their capacity today had the US not toppled Saddam Hussein. Toppling Saddam Hussein led to a power grab by Al Qaeda in Iraq, which the US occupying force managed to keep at bay. ISIS split from Al Qaeda in Iraq officially in 2014, though the military wing of ISIS had operated independently for at least a couple of years before that... Which is part of what prompted Obama to embarrassingly say that ISIS is the "junior varsity squad" of Al Qaeda.

But you can also point at other events that contributed to the growth of ISIS, for instance, the Arab Spring. The US has added some 20 terrorist organizations to its list of global terrorist groups since the Arab Spring... that's far more than any time in contemporary history. Undoubtedly, populist and democratic movements in Arab countries was something to celebrate, but many of them created power vacuums that have since allowed for extremism to be unfettered by the anti-democratic despotism that had previously existed. Hosni Mubarak was a dictator, but he also jailed thousands of Islamists; Saddam Hussein was a butcher and dictator, but his Baathist party had maintained the pretense of secularism and squashed isurgent uprisings in Iraq (along with peaceful uprisings as well); Bashar al-Asad was much more effective at containing Islamist extremists before he was popularly opposed by other democratic or progressive forces in Syria, yet, Assad is a dictator.

But then, we can also go back further. Salafism, the jihadist ideology that is typically seen as the root of many of these terrorist attacks throughout Europe and the world, shares a lot of its growth from the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan. It's easy to ask, "Well had the US not emboldened the Afghani mujaheddin, would we not see terrorist organizations sprout up 20 years later?" That's probably true to some extent. But had the Soviet Union not rolled tanks into Afghanistan, would there have been any need for a populist, Muslim, jihadist uprising to begin with? And what would have happened if the Soviet Union crumbled in 1991 and the Taliban took over then, rather than a decade before? We can continue to go back decades and ask other questions... Had the UK and US not supported the Shah when he lost in 1953, would there have been an Islamic uprising 30 years later, or would Iran have never recognized the state of Israel and instead have joined in destroying Israel with other Arab powers? Had the US not separated itself from the Shah in the 1970s, would he have been over-thrown by an Islamic revolution in 1978; would that country still be the financing source of a half-dozen terrorist organizations around the middle east, prompting further financing from rival groups? Further back, would the US have been involved if European powers had not colonized the Arab world and then swiftly fallen apart after two European wars? Are we going to pin the rise of Islamic extremism on the Ottoman Empire, then?

Orientalism is a double-edged sword. The Western tendency to look at the near east as a land of mystery that is unfit to govern itself (or can be governed better by Western liberal sensibilities), is the same tendency that makes us look at the Middle East and say "Would terrorism exist if the West hadn't done X?" But this tendency also removes culpability from the the groups and organizations that are financing, planning, and executing these acts of terror.
 

Kin5290

Member
While the invasion of Iraq on false pretenses did not help matters, it was the purging of the Ba'ath party from civic positions as well as the dissolution of the Iraqi army that did the most to turn out tens of thousands of disenfranchised young men, all with good reasons to hate the US, out onto the streets.

And so, boom, insurgency.
 
The toppling of Sadam left a power vacuum in Iraq that, for a while, was filled by the US military. Now we've pretty much pulled out of Iraq due to political pressure and the American people not having the appetite for committing troops for the foreseeable future. There was bound to be some group that would move in and take advantage of a country in complete disarray.

So if you want to point the finger, you could say that Bush made the initial mess, the Obama made things worse by withdrawing and leaving a government propped up on toothpicks to run the show.
That government wanted American troops gone. It's Bush policies that are responsible for the radicalized Sunnis, he basically disenfranchised them and opened the door to extremist demagoguery.
 

pgtl_10

Member
While the invasion of Iraq on false pretenses did not help matters, it was the purging of the Ba'ath party from civic positions as well as the dissolution of the Iraqi army that did the most to turn out tens of thousands of disenfranchised young men, all with good reasons to hate the US, out onto the streets.

And so, boom, insurgency.

That's all part of the invasion. The Iraq war is a good example of how war is not how a country should conduct diplomacy. The Iran deal is a far better option.
 

MC Safety

Member
ISIS in its current form would in no way exist if the US had not invaded a country that had never attacked them for made up reasons that weren't verified by anyone.

Don't be disingenuous. The UN had established clear and direct policies for Iraq to follow after the first Gulf War. They were almost unanimously ignored by Iraq.

WMD is commonly bleated, but Iraq knew the consequences of non-compliance. Without inspections, there was no intelligence.

The removal of Saddam Hussein was a victory for humanity, but the power vacuum caused by his removal was predictable and not addressed properly. Iraq became a black hole, and Americans (or the world community in general) have no stomach anymore for the sort of extended occupations it would take to properly rebuild a country.

It is a tragedy, but even with Saddam Hussein in place radicalism would not have been ameliorated.
 

Chairman Yang

if he talks about books, you better damn well listen
I think this form of historical revisionism is difficult because you can keep going back to an earlier point and say that X would not have happened if Y did not happen, and it removes blame from groups that are actively contributing to terrorist attacks.

However, it is without a doubt that ISIS would not exist in their capacity today had the US not toppled Saddam Hussein. Toppling Saddam Hussein led to a power grab by Al Qaeda in Iraq, which the US occupying force managed to keep at bay. ISIS split from Al Qaeda in Iraq officially in 2014, though the military wing of ISIS had operated independently for at least a couple of years before that... Which is part of what prompted Obama to embarrassingly say that ISIS is the "junior varsity squad" of Al Qaeda.

But you can also point at other events that contributed to the growth of ISIS, for instance, the Arab Spring. The US has added some 20 terrorist organizations to its list of global terrorist groups since the Arab Spring... that's far more than any time in contemporary history. Undoubtedly, populist and democratic movements in Arab countries was something to celebrate, but many of them created power vacuums that have since allowed for extremism to be unfettered by the anti-democratic despotism that had previously existed. Hosni Mubarak was a dictator, but he also jailed thousands of Islamists; Saddam Hussein was a butcher and dictator, but his Baathist party had maintained the pretense of secularism and squashed isurgent uprisings in Iraq (along with peaceful uprisings as well); Bashar al-Asad was much more effective at containing Islamist extremists before he was popularly opposed by other democratic or progressive forces in Syria, yet, Assad is a dictator.

But then, we can also go back further. Salafism, the jihadist ideology that is typically seen as the root of many of these terrorist attacks throughout Europe and the world, shares a lot of its growth from the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan. It's easy to ask, "Well had the US not emboldened the Afghani mujaheddin, would we not see terrorist organizations sprout up 20 years later?" That's probably true to some extent. But had the Soviet Union not rolled tanks into Afghanistan, would there have been any need for a populist, Muslim, jihadist uprising to begin with? And what would have happened if the Soviet Union crumbled in 1991 and the Taliban took over then, rather than a decade before? We can continue to go back decades and ask other questions... Had the UK and US not supported the Shah when he lost in 1953, would there have been an Arab uprising 30 years later, or would Iran have never recognized the state of Israel and instead have joined in destroying Israel with other Arab powers? Had the US not separated itself from the Shah in the 1970s, would he have been over-thrown by an Islamic revolution in 1978; would that country still be the financing source of a half-dozen terrorist organizations around the middle east, prompting further financing from rival groups? Further back, would the US have been involved if European powers had not colonized the Arab world and then swiftly fallen apart after two European wars? Are we going to pin the rise of Islamic extremism on the Ottoman Empire, then?

Orientalism is a double-edged sword. The Western tendency to look at the near east as a land of mystery that is unfit to govern itself (or can be governed better by Western liberal sensibilities), is the same tendency that makes us look at the Middle East and say "Would terrorism exist if the West hadn't done X?" But this tendency also removes culpability from the the groups and organizations that are financing, planning, and executing these acts of terror.
This is an excellent post that summarizes my own thoughts.

I also want to add that, once you look beyond a narrow Western-country viewpoint, jihadism with similarities to ISIS behaviour has a long, bloody history in areas untouched (or barely touched) by the West at the time. That's evidence, I think, that Islam plays a role in today's terror climate, alongside Western meddling. Blaming the West is fine, and accurate. But absolving Islam and the Islamic world of all responsibility as a result is dishonest or delusional.
 

industrian

will gently cradle you as time slowly ticks away.
The west's Islamophobia that has spread since 2001 (and the Islamist preachers who profit from this climate with their anti-west rhetoric) has basically resulted in a lot of young European, Australian and American muslims growing up feeling like outcasts in their own countries. The shitty economy and widespread youth unemployment also feeds into this to create the primordial soup of the modern domestic terrorist.
 
Violent people with nothing to lose are going to act out either way.

The Iraq war simply influenced where they decided to aim their crosshairs.


Well, this sure is some racist bullshit.

You need to take a long hard look at who's actually a 'violent people' here, especially in the eyes of those who had their countries invaded by them pretty much for shits and giggles.

Don't be ridiculous.
 

xenist

Member
Don't be disingenuous. The UN had established clear and direct policies for Iraq to follow after the first Gulf War. They were almost unanimously ignored by Iraq.

WMD is commonly bleated, but Iraq knew the consequences of non-compliance. Without inspections, there was no intelligence.

You are ignoring the fact that the US went into Iraq not with a lack of intelligence but with fabricated intelligence. Which they, themselves, paraded in front of the UN as an excuse.
 

Ric Flair

Banned
Bin Laden probably never imagined his plan would work so wonderfully for his terrorist regime. Complete anarchy. The Iraq invasion completely fucked up the middle east, we got rid of Saddam and an even worse devil took his place.
 

Chairman Yang

if he talks about books, you better damn well listen
The west's Islamophobia that has spread since 2001 (and the Islamist preachers who profit from this climate with their anti-west rhetoric) has basically resulted in a lot of young European, Australian and American muslims growing up feeling like outcasts in their own countries. The shitty economy and widespread youth unemployment also feeds into this to create the primordial soup of the modern domestic terrorist.
What evidence are you relying on for these statements?
 

Kin5290

Member
That's all part of the invasion. The Iraq war is a good example of how war is not how a country should conduct diplomacy. The Iran deal is a far better option.
Well, no. By then the invasion had been concluded and the US led coalition had won. The problem comes from actions taken during the following occupation when an incompetent and his yes-men were given great power to make unilateral changes to the structure of a government and country he knew nothing about.
 

Z3K

Member
Let's see.

The remnants of the resistance Saddam activated are now ISIS. The Kurds gained more power thereby inducing Turkey to widely use violent means either in country or by proxy out of it. Iran, with Iraq a useless puppet state, is now a much more active regional power. This gave the region's Shiites hopes of greater power which caused Saudi Arabia to become more overtly (Yemen) and covertly (Syria) interventionist. Saudi Arabia opened the oil floodgates, dropping its price, hurting Russia which in turn decided to power project in the Middle East after decades as a show of force.

Overall, the invasion was pretty successful. If you measure success by damage caused.

And I don't even think we've seen the worst, the Iraq issue has not been solved and will erupt again and plunge the region into even more violence. The whole Sunni/Shia/Kurdish mix is toxic and Saudi/Iran/Turkey are heavily invested in the outcome.
 

pgtl_10

Member
Well, no. By then the invasion had been concluded and the US led coalition had won. The problem comes from actions taken during the following occupation when an incompetent and his yes-men were given great power to make unilateral changes to the structure of a government and country he knew nothing about.

You are arguing semantics. Invasion and occupation go hand in hand. The idea that America will have an enlighted occupation fails to take into account the loads of examples when natives resist occupiers.

No, we need a better occupation next time. We need to stop using war as a method of diplomacy.
 

AndyD

aka andydumi
Only way to nation-build is to stay in the country for decades and spend $trillions ala South Korea and Japan. Anything else is just a bad joke. Foreign policy in the middle east is a disaster for both Reps and Dems

Indeed. And the public is to blame in part for enabling the initial invasion with blind trust and fear, then turning away from the long term support and presence needed. A President can only do so much without support from congress, and congress can only do so much under uniform pressure from the population. Once the population realized the invasion was a sham, an early withdrawal was inevitable.
 
A metric ton of it to be honest. It will probably be remembered as one of the worst mistakes the US government made for the first half of this century unless Trump wins in which case we'll have record numbers of disasters to tell our kids about.
 
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