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Hurricane Patricia, strongest east pacific hurricane, set to make landfall in Mexico

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Looks like it had an Eye Wall Replacement Cycle at the last moment. That would be to close for comfort for me.

Regardless, Mexico still got hit by a cat 4 so here hoping the damage isn't too severe.
 

ErichWK

Member
I grew up in vallarta, and my dad still lives there. My sister and I breathed a heavy sigh of relief when we heard it died down. I would hate to see everyone'should homes destroyed...or the Malecon. That'ss a lot of people's livelihoods on that strip.
 

smurfx

get some go again

OuterLimits

Member
It helped that hurricane force winds were tightly wrapped around the center. I believe 30 miles. TS force winds were over 150 miles from center though.

Glad it seemed to be weakening rather quickly right before hitting land as well. Still, a Cat 4 or minimum Cat 5 is still damn strong.
 

Velcro Fly

Member
The size of the storm often makes more difference than the maximum sustained winds

I said before I have no idea if a much bigger storm could get as strong as that.

The problems with other storms were their size and therefore the wind fields. This one seemed to be much smaller so while it would lead to local devastation, a bigger storm would have been comparably worse although maybe not quite as strong at the center.

It's a good lesson to always be weary when one of those is in the water. Category 1 to strongest ever in a day might be a new record for intensifying though.
 

Flandy

Member
I wonder if the Hurricane being so huge so quickly made people who normally wouldn't listen to an evacuation notice actually listen
 
I wonder if the Hurricane being so huge so quickly made people who normally wouldn't listen to an evacuation notice actually listen

I'd imagine anyone with the resources hearing "In just 24 hours, it's gone from a tropical storm to the most powerful hurricane logistically possible to form on Earth - I'm not kidding, like, scientists had to use theoretical models because this thing broke just about every other model in the book, look that shit up" would be getting the fuck out of dodge as quickly as possible. The fact that the Hurricane Hunters had to tap out following their first eyewall surveillance after taking a 3000-foot vertical drop is probably the most telling out of this whole thing.
 
This storm shows us how far we still have to go in terms of computer models forecasting weather. Hurricane Joaquin as well showed this. Many of them showed that storm hitting North Carolina and it missed by hundreds of miles. Saw an interview on CNN where the NHC meteorologist was talking about how all the computer models failed and didn't see the storm rapidly intensifying. They did better on the track though.

Obviously they do get things right, especially the European model. We still have a long way to go though.

My thoughts go out to the people who were hit by this storm.
Thank you for your sensible post, people were grilling me on earlier for criticizing our current understanding of weather forecasting. Now that it is OBVIOUS that nothing major occurred and that the thing indeed degraded quickly (just like I described it in this very thread) I hope more people agree.
 
It's been a day of memes on Facebook here in Mexico :
12042906_1051047218272886_8109025658052501603_n.jpg
 

Dai101

Banned
I have the utmost respect for this guys:

f05HRna.jpg


And the quick response of every government, both local, state and federal to minimize the risk and loss of lifes.

KUDOS


This thing is gonna end up in the Gulf ain't it? Could get more interesting after that.

image.php
 

Dai101

Banned
Sorry for the double post but just want to announce that the warning and state of emergency is now over:

MANZANILLO, COLIMA (24/OCT/2015).- El Presidente Enrique Peña Nieto aseguró que se levanta la alerta de prevención que se desplegó en Jalisco, Colima y Nayarit por el paso del huracán "Patricia" en estas entidades.

Al hacer un balance final de su visita dijo que "Patricia" está dejando el territorio nacional.

Y dijo que se va a hacer un Frente Común para hacer los censos con los gobiernos estatales y municipales sobre los daños causados por este meteoro.

"Se levanta la alerta preventiva que se dio para los estados de Jalisco, Colima y Nayarit", comentó el Mandatario.

Dijo que la amenaza que representaba el huracán "Patricia" era devastadora, pero explicó que los efectos dejados son menores a lo que eventualmente se preveían.

Reconoció a los ciudadanos de las entidades de Nayarit, Colima y Jalisco por haber dejado sus comunidades. Aseguró que ya les tocará a los científicos explicar qué fue lo que pasó por la fuerza que advertía, pero los daños son menores.

Sobre las viviendas afectadas dijo que son entre tres mil a tres mil 500. En las zonas agrícolas dijo que fueron tres mil 500 hectáreas afectadas.

Comentó que el puente aéreo que se instaló desde Puerto Vallarta o Manzanillo operó bien y con normalidad y hoy ya fue levantado.

Asimismo, destacó que 25 mil efectivos de la Marina, Ejército y la Policía Federal contribuyeron al alertamiento y el auxilio de las personas que fueron afectadas.

"Los daños no son de la magnitud y la dimensión que se esperaba", refirió.

Comentó que el Gobierno Federal actuó de manera correcta al desplegar los anuncios de alerta.

aJNYcib.jpg



No major damage as Hurricane Patricia remnants move north

GUADALAJARA, Mexico — Hurricane Patricia left behind flooded homes, raging rivers and downed trees as it degenerated and moved north into Texas, leaving behind far less damage than initially feared.

The Mexican government on Saturday afternoon lifted its emergency alert after Patricia, one of the strongest storms ever to make landfall, weakened rapidly. No deaths were initially reported as emergency crews made their way into the hardest-hit areas. This capital of the state of Jalisco — ground zero for the storm's arrival on shore late Friday — was wet with some storm debris Saturday morning but mostly unscathed from the system's wrath. Some homes in the area where the storm came ashore were flooded but authorities said the damage appeared to be far less than anticipated given the storm's power.

The U.S. National Hurricane Center said late Saturday afternoon that Patricia had degenerated into a low pressure system, a stunning transformation from the Category 5 hurricane that roared toward Mexico's Pacific coast packing sustained winds of 200 mph for much of Friday.

"So far, there are no reports of major damage from Patricia," Mexican President Enrique Peña Nieto said on Twitter Saturday afternoon. "Our gratitude to all for your thoughts, prayers and actions. #PrayForMexico."

http://www.usatoday.com/story/weather/2015/10/24/hurricane-patricia/74517864/


No deaths, No injuries and material damage is pretty low.
 

Nephtis

Member
That storm chaser guy put up an update on his Facebook page:


Why am I posting a picture of a dark bathroom with a mattress wedged in the ceiling? Because it protected me and seven other people.

Hurricane PATRICIA. All I can say is: terrifying storm.

After an hour or two of violent, destructive winds in Emiliano Zapata, the pressure bottomed out at 937.8 mb at 6:12 pm. We saw brightness in the sky and some touches of blue, and while the wind was still dangerous, it seemed to be a little less energetic for a few minutes. (I notice that the NHC's landfall point was *very* close to us! So it looks like we might have been skirting the edge of the eye at this time.) Then the pressure started to rapidly rise, and I assumed the worst of the hurricane had passed. Actually, it hadn't started. (Ugh.)


At 6:34 pm the wind shifted sharply and a wall of wind and rain swept in, engulfing the hotel with a howling, whistling sound. There was a complete whiteout. The building trembled. Things were crashing-- big crashes as the hotel started to blow apart. Erik and I retreated to our room. A frightened hotel worker joined us and we stood in the dark, not sure what to do. We heard a terrific explosion and assumed the roof had blown off. (We were right.) Minutes later a man burst into the room-- a family across the hall was in trouble-- their room had torn open-- roof, ceiling, and all had blown away. Erik rushed across the hall-- which was now a wind tunnel-- and helped them into our room. Then all of us-- six adults and two children-- crammed into the bathroom: the family around the toilet, Erik and me in the shower stall, two hotel workers next to the sink, all of us pressed against each other in the darkness like trapped animals. Roaring. Crashing. The mother wept-- she was freaked out. I told her not to worry-- told her (in broken Spanish) we were totally safe-- but I was talking nonsense, telling a lie. More crashing. We put pillows and blankets over the children, and Erik and I put computer bags over our heads and got low. Water was streaming from the ceiling and we expected it to blow away any second. So Erik and the two workers and I pulled the mattress off the bed and squeezed it into the bathroom. We tore the shower doors out to make room, then lifted the mattress up over everyone and wedged it in to make an extra ceiling. And we waited.

The howling continued, but the pressure was rising fast-- into the 960s, then '70s-- and I knew we'd clear the core soon... just a few more minutes of this insanity. And by maybe 7 pm or so, we did. We crept out to look at the devastation-- smashed rooms, mountains of debris, trees stripped bare. And as it got dark the wind slowly calmed... And we had a tranquil night sleeping on a damp mattress, the crickets chirping all hours in the black, sticky calm.

On a meteorological note: The pressure gradient in the core of this cyclone was frightening. The pressure recovered explosively-- 31 mb in 26 minutes (6:24 - 6:50 pm) (!!) and an incredible 15 mb in just 9 minutes (6:34 - 6:43 pm) while the winds ripped apart the hotel. It was an incredible, frightening experience (and honor) to punch the core of this Cat-5 hurricane-- the strongest known landfall ever in the Eastern Pacific. My video footage is messy, shaky, and wild, but I believe it captures the terror of the experience and I hope to post it soon.

I need to give a HUGE thanks to the team that made this chase awesome: my right-hand man in Texas, Scott Brownfield; James Hyde; and Jorge Abelardo Gonzalez. They all helped us interpret PATRICIA's complex motion in those frantic final hours as we tried to pinpoint the landfall. And I also want to thank Erik Sereno, who's been an awesome chase partner. Thanks also to Eric Blake, of the National Hurricane Center, for his valuable insights on off hours. And finally, I want to thank all the members of this page who give so much encouragement-- it helps during really tough chases like PATRICIA.
Erik and I spent much of the morning helping clean up the wreckage at our hotel, and now we're almost to Manzanillo. We're gonna sleep well tonight.
 
Just read about how he came in like gangster and turned out to be punk, happy it didn't turned out to be horrible...don't want to want live 2 weeks with out power, Sandy was a horrible experience..
 
Hilarious to look at accuweather and it tells me Tropical Rainstorm Patricia os hitting me right now

Soggy ass day, but we're built for this in New Orleans.
 
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