Maybe it's just me, but I'm not seeing the same hype and buzz surrounding the DS that surrounded launch of GBA, PS2, Xbox, GC, N64, PSX, or even DC. I kind of wonder if GBA gamers are going to flock to it or if they're going to be content with the GBA SP until something better comes along. Does the average GBA fan see this as a true successor to the GBA or as a gimmicky stop-gap? It'll probably sell out this year due to supply reasons, but if supply wasn't a factor I wouldn't be surprised if a good number of DS units were left on the shelf.
-
Hey, guest user. Hope you're enjoying NeoGAF! Have you considered registering for an account? Come join us and add your take to the daily discourse.
I think the DS is going to have some problems this holiday season...
- Thread starter Pedigree Chum
- Start date
The SP came out in the US how long after its unveiling? You people are seriously nuts if you think this thing lacks enough "hype" to sell well. Every news organization, etc. will proclaim this the gift to give this Christmas as its a handheld from Nintendo that plays GBA games on top of new ones. There is absolutely zero chance this thing fails.
dynamitejim
Member
How much hardware is sold during the holidays is almost irrelevant. We all know the shipments will be limited, and there's enough early adopters and people looking to upgrade their GBA/SP to sell out the holiday stock.
You should really be looking at how much software is sold. It's possible that with a Metroid demo, built-in Pictochat, and GBA backwards compatibility the software attach rate may be less than one. I think those are the numbers that the developers will be looking at.
You should really be looking at how much software is sold. It's possible that with a Metroid demo, built-in Pictochat, and GBA backwards compatibility the software attach rate may be less than one. I think those are the numbers that the developers will be looking at.
think about what? the only way to make stretch panic's controls worse? 
if treasure develops ds games, i'll probably become one of those susceptible hardcore. but that wouldn't change my (wildly speculative) prognosis for the system. i don't think it addresses the need nintendo means for it to address.
if treasure develops ds games, i'll probably become one of those susceptible hardcore. but that wouldn't change my (wildly speculative) prognosis for the system. i don't think it addresses the need nintendo means for it to address.
krypt0nian
Banned
dynamitejim said:
Except that I believe launch attach rates are higher than not. How many hardcore early adopters buy one game? More like a stack. I know the last 3 consoles I picked up at launch had people with tons of games in the same bag with the console.
TheGreenGiant
Banned
Go Go Ackman! said:
so you hate nintendo? :| Its a portable from Nintendo. Be realistic.
there is a DS event next month and it will be massive (if Nintendo is this confident)..
drohne said:think about what? the only way to make stretch panic's controls worse?
if treasure develops ds games, i'll probably become one of those susceptible hardcore. but that wouldn't change my (wildly speculative) prognosis for the system. i don't think it addresses the need nintendo means for it to address.
i was just trying to get you to imagine the possibilitys of using your finger to make boobies stretch.
Go Go Ackman!
Banned
TheGreenGiant said:
Yeah for DS's sake it better be. Again, you think that this thing has mainstream appeal to sell to the madden/gta crowd, and again, you are fooling yourselves. Just because "Nintendo" is on the box doesn't mean it's instantly a success. Will it sell out? Maybe, but as mentioned above, supply will be a factor.
Go Go Ackman! said:
Well fuck. Seriously? Supply is an issue when something is going to sell out? Well I'll be.
The point being made is that the system will sell out of its two million units being shipped. We are not saying that if it was a shipment of 10 million, it would sell out in the same manner.
Nintendo Name + GBA BC + Low Supply = Sell Out
The GBA SP is pretty much the only handheld console on the market right now. As such, it has not been in direct competition with ANY console. If you want a handheld, the de facto choice is a GBA SP, regardless of what console(s) you own. As such, I would expect GBA SP sales figures to be driven primarily by its own price, rather than being influenced significantly by console sales. Still, posting ONLY the GC vs. GBA stats is misleading -- if there is a point to be made, then posting the sales figures for ALL of the players is the way to go.GDJustin said:
The difference now is that Nintendo has now introduced a new handheld...which means they are now COMPETING AGAINST THEMSELVES. I don't know what your business background is, but I can tell you that in most cases, this is NOT a good decision. The hope when you execute that kind of strategy is that a) your models have a clear stratification, b) do not significantly pull from each others' market share, and c) help you dominate the segment and keep your competitors out of the market. If those three things don't actually happen, you are probably facing trouble.
The original hypothesis is that the NDS may not sell as well as hoped this holiday season...although, quite frankly, I'm not sure the argument changes a whole lot if you look at the likely situation a few months from now. So, let's analyze things, hmm? Imagine that you are a casual gamer, already the owner of one console, with $150 to spend this Christmas on gaming-related purchases. What are your options?
If you really want a handheld, then you have two options:
1) NDS @ $150. Although it can play GBA games, it doesn't have any killer apps announced at the moment and is twice as much as...
2) GBA SP @ $80...which leaves you a bunch of money left over for games.
If your real requirement is for PORTABLE gaming, not specifically HANDHELD gaming, then the options get more interesting. The new PS2 design is ALSO $150, is considerably smaller, has a huge library of games, and is far more powerful than the NDS. If the desire is just for a new system, Xbox and GC also come into play.
Last but not least, there is no guarantee that the money has to go towards new hardware -- and given the surplus of intriguing releases this winter at $50 a pop, the realistic choice may very well be that our hypothetical consumer chooses to take home three A-list games rather than ANY system.
Personally, I don't think that Nintendo has done a good enough job separating the NDS from the GBA SP. With the price drop on the GBA SP, I strongly suspect that it will eat into DS sales.
Go Go Ackman!
Banned
What -jinx- said.
The DS is gonna do very well, especially when Itagaki releases his DoA Girls DS game that utilizes the touchscreen.
When you factor in the intended purpose of the DS, you'll see that it'll do very well for Nintendo. The DS is nothing more than the answer to the PSP. They're going to use the DS to hurt the PSP. Look at it like this:
The system is releasing for $150 to sell to the early adopters. When the PSP drops, the DS will be reduced in price to $100 and will include a pack-in game. Sony's hand will be forced sooner rather than later, because while they will sell the PSP to the early adopters at whatever pricepoint they set, they will eventually have to drop the price in order to compete. This buys Nintendo time with the GBA2, and can make it a little bit better than the PSP, and when they launch the GBA2 they match the PSP's pricepoint. Consumers should see the minor upgrades in the GBA2 and continue supporting that line.
I think that's Nintendo's strategy with the DS.
When you factor in the intended purpose of the DS, you'll see that it'll do very well for Nintendo. The DS is nothing more than the answer to the PSP. They're going to use the DS to hurt the PSP. Look at it like this:
The system is releasing for $150 to sell to the early adopters. When the PSP drops, the DS will be reduced in price to $100 and will include a pack-in game. Sony's hand will be forced sooner rather than later, because while they will sell the PSP to the early adopters at whatever pricepoint they set, they will eventually have to drop the price in order to compete. This buys Nintendo time with the GBA2, and can make it a little bit better than the PSP, and when they launch the GBA2 they match the PSP's pricepoint. Consumers should see the minor upgrades in the GBA2 and continue supporting that line.
I think that's Nintendo's strategy with the DS.
Pedigree Chum said:
Well, I wouldn't call Sony telling developers "Now watch how your games affect the battery life!" a great way to kick things off with the PSP.
No one knows how either is going to perform, but right now I think the smart(er) money's on the DS. It's actually affordable, the cartridges - while they don't have the storage capacity of the UMDs - are both cheaper and more powerful than their GBA counterparts, and it's launching first.
truesayian
Banned
DS is going sell great if nintendo converces people that this is the new gameboy...
truesayian
Banned
I think they will...
-jinx- you're a fool, if you believe that handhelds don't directly compete with consoles. They're the same type of product, marketed to the same audience in the same way, and sold along side eachother at market. They directly compete for shelf space, mindshare, money and marketshare. Handhelds may not have the exact same funtions as consoles, but they do directly compete.
The #1 reason the DS is being released was to head off the PSP. Nintendo competing with itself could not be helped.. they already do it. But Nintendo has also come up with ways to (try to) limit that competion. Why do you think the GCN/GBA connectivity was being pushed? Why do you think the GBA Player was released? It was to redirect the 2 systems so instead of competing, they would complement eachother. Sony has promised similar features for the same reason.
If the DS has been defined too closely to the GBA, then wouldn't that only help the DS because it would be viewed as the GBA's successor. When the Ps2 was released, it and the PS1 both saw success without cutting into eachother. Both where successful for different reasons; the PS2 was the "hottest new gadget," while the PS1 was its inexpensive counterpart. In time the PS1 faded out, and so will the GBA; don't believe that "3rd-tier" meant that all 3 would last indefinately. The BC of the NDS will propel GBA softwares sales, so even if GBA hardware sales dive, its software market is protected.
Finally, you speak of the DS as having no killer app, yet it most likely will have Super Mario 64 x 4 as a launch title. The Mario Advance games have all sold over a million copies, with 2 of them over 2 million and steadily selling. SMA2 is the 8th best selling game of the generation. How much more of a "killer app" do you need?
The #1 reason the DS is being released was to head off the PSP. Nintendo competing with itself could not be helped.. they already do it. But Nintendo has also come up with ways to (try to) limit that competion. Why do you think the GCN/GBA connectivity was being pushed? Why do you think the GBA Player was released? It was to redirect the 2 systems so instead of competing, they would complement eachother. Sony has promised similar features for the same reason.
If the DS has been defined too closely to the GBA, then wouldn't that only help the DS because it would be viewed as the GBA's successor. When the Ps2 was released, it and the PS1 both saw success without cutting into eachother. Both where successful for different reasons; the PS2 was the "hottest new gadget," while the PS1 was its inexpensive counterpart. In time the PS1 faded out, and so will the GBA; don't believe that "3rd-tier" meant that all 3 would last indefinately. The BC of the NDS will propel GBA softwares sales, so even if GBA hardware sales dive, its software market is protected.
Finally, you speak of the DS as having no killer app, yet it most likely will have Super Mario 64 x 4 as a launch title. The Mario Advance games have all sold over a million copies, with 2 of them over 2 million and steadily selling. SMA2 is the 8th best selling game of the generation. How much more of a "killer app" do you need?
CrimsonSkies
Member
I never understood spending serious money on hand held gaming.
JoshuaJSlone
Member
The original post was about how DS being the same price as some consoles would hurt its chance at high sales, so I showed a situation where GBA SP had the same price as a console. For further reference, though:-jinx- said:
Code:
October 2003
GBA: 401,000
PS2: 300,000
GCN: 254,000
XBX: 176,000
November 2003
GBA: 1,320,000
PS2: 850,000
GCN: 754,000
XBX: 490,000
December 2003
GBA: 2,316,000
PS2: 1,970,000
GCN: 1,163,000
XBX: 1,122,000Probably true. However, if we calculated this using last year's numbers, that would remain true for anything less than 1,719,000 across November and December.jedimike said:
Sp3eD
0G M3mbeR
My biggest problem with the DS is that nobody asked for it. After GB spending forever on the market and GBA finally upgrading years later, I never heard a single word from anybody here, or in other venues express interest in another game boy so soon.
Stop-gap would be a correct term here. GBC was pretty much on the end of its ropes when the GBA hit with tons of hype and anticipation. GBA/GBASP are still doing fantastic and still have tons of life left. I just find that odd from a company that normally runs systems into the ground before they make a new one.
Stop-gap would be a correct term here. GBC was pretty much on the end of its ropes when the GBA hit with tons of hype and anticipation. GBA/GBASP are still doing fantastic and still have tons of life left. I just find that odd from a company that normally runs systems into the ground before they make a new one.
krypt0nian
Banned
When do you ever see anyone ask for the next console before its announced?
JoshuaJSlone
Member
DS is an experimentation ground for weird things like touch screen, dual screen, wireless, and built-in microphone. At worst it flops, they go on with their other products, and a few million people have GBAs with two screens and no link port. At best, it's actually successful. Either way, it makes Sony's job of introducing the PSP a bit less easy.Sp3eD said:
I have a friend who's going to pre-order a DS soon because her kid is telling her about it already. All his cousins and friends are going to be doing the same with their parents. No hype for Nintendoods? Please, Nintendo has the greatest kind of hype, kids' word of mouth. And when the October announcement comes, finding a DS Thanksgiving weekend will be like going into your bathroom and finding a leprachaun taking a shit and counting his golden nuggets....wait...
I dont think so. If a customer goes to buy a console GBA is always out of the equation. Its out of GC, Xbox and PS2. Even on these forums, when people need to decide, its always out of the 3 consoles. If it were a handheld recomendation then ofcourse GBA would be mentioned.
Handhelds and their software have no impact on console sales, not once have i seen GBA take away sales from either Xbox, GC and PS2. MS even allow Rare to produce GBA games. Its not a seen as a threat
JoshuaJSlone
Member
It is probably true that not many people decide they want to purchase gaming hardware, and aren't sure whether to get a console or portable. However, speaking as someone who has both, the software then does compete across lines. My money could as well go to River City Ransom EX as Metroid Prime.Prine said:
Hellraizah
Member
I seriously don't know about this.
I don't see any hype for either the DS or the PSP. I don't think the DS is marketed towards kids, I mean, have you ever seen a GBA SP screen that belongs to a kid ? Now, imagine that, but include 2 screens and one of them is a touch screen.
I don't see any hype for either the DS or the PSP. I don't think the DS is marketed towards kids, I mean, have you ever seen a GBA SP screen that belongs to a kid ? Now, imagine that, but include 2 screens and one of them is a touch screen.
Date of Lies
Banned
DSN2K said:whatever Nintendo ships this fall will sell out regardless. 2 million lead before the PSP has even landed in the US and Europe puts Nintendo in a wonderful position.
why not launch Pokemon DS on the release date of PSP in japan and its all over.
So true. In fact, Pokemon DS that takes complete advantage of wireless and Wi-FI could literally own Japan for years to come.
But again, I think DS and PSP are a bit focused on a bit more different crowds. I dont see a parent buying his kid a PSP, that's for sure. Maybe later, if, somehow, PSP makes a break into the market like PS1 did.
DS will most likely sell out, unless large numbers are shipped. I just hope there will be good lauch titles. As for PSP, I think it will take some market away from Nintendo in Japan, but in North America, it's more tricky. Basically, the people that WOULD buy a 300$ handheld at lauch are people that resemble the demographic of this forum. I guess it's people that will already have a DS or Sony fans that are willing to spend alot of money. Other than that...I think Sony will have to make a few price drops before this becomes a product for the masses. If they manage to make the statement that PSP is the 'mature' toy to have, then it could make a solid entry.
But Nintendo also marketed the GBA SP as the GBA "for an older consumer that doesn't mind spending a bit more" with more mature oriented marketing, especially in europe. I know that older handheld fans picked that up right away, and that they've probably been supporting the Gameboy brand since the very first so I don't know if they'll jump ship that quick, but maybe. But basically, when the DS and the PSP will both be out and some 20-something year old guy walks into an EB and asks about the handhelds, they'll offer him the DS, a portable system with an "innovative" design, 2 screen, touch screen and backwards compability with "all the GBA games you see on that wall" for 150$. Or the PSP, a more advanced handheld with a large screen for 300$.
Which one will he most likely buy? Considering the fact that this guy doesn't know that much about either? Seriously, what do you think? Your predictions on how well the DS and PSP will sell result from how well you know the consumer.
EDIT: Ok, this thread is only about the DS. Sorry.
TheGreenGiant
Banned
Mejilan said:
Been awhile since I've seen that name
IAWTP
Lord Error
Insane For Sony
What's not to understand? Why do you spend serious money on gaming, period? Or entertainment anything, for that matter?
Except the Xbox/PS2 don't come with an inbuilt mic, touchscreen, two screens etc.Pedigree Chum said:
Oh fuck it, you're not buying the hardware for hardware's sake, you're buying it for a different gaming experience, new styles of games basically, that was the whole point of DS. If anyone is going to struggle on this logic, it's PSP because it's just delivering the exact same kind of games that consoles provide.
(I am aware PSP will sell shitloads regardless)
F
Folder
Unconfirmed Member
Pedigree Chum said:
Doesn't the release of a new Nintendo portable somewhat transend the usual constraints of seasonal shopping? I bet that everywhere, they'll be queing for miles to get one. Come on, it's cheap enough.
Duckhuntdog
Member
Insertia said:
That didn't stop the PS2 dead in it's tracks now did it.