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[RetroGamingUK]

Been thinking about a couple of recent things regarding Xbox and the near future state of the console wars

- Xbox rumoured to potentially be leaving the console space by making the next Xbox a PC

- Phil Spencer saying they lost the worst generation due to gen 8 being the one where customers invested heavily in digital libraries

For me this makes it seem unlikely that any newcomer could compete with Sony and Nintendo in this space now, it seems to late. The likes of Samsung or Tencent would be building a games library from scratch

Valve tried with Steamboxes, but open PC gaming on a closed console-like system isn’t practical due to the multitude of PC configurations

This leaves only one possibility for me…

Apple

- Macs, iPads and iPhones are already like console’s closed systems whereby games are more tailored to limited configs of hardware

- More games are being developed that run across Mac, iPhone and iPad (universal play)

- Apple TV with M silicon chips could potentially run all the above games

- Apple already have fanboys (outside gaming anyway)


What do you guys think?

Could someone new fill the gap, or would Sony and Nintendo just grow to fill it instead?

 

[SweetTooth]

Apple is the only I can see succeeding and affecting both Sony and Nintendo. The others Nah

 

[Mownoc]

Sure, with enough money. It's not an impossible market to break into, though a very difficult one. I think more likely than not though they'd screw up and fail.

 

[PeteBull]

tbh with ms output and offerings, it almost feels like they left console business already =/

 

[Angry_Megalodon]

No, the market isn't profitable enough for three console manufacturers. Nintendo found its own space, the same as Sony.

A new competitor should steal customers from one or the other. If Sony messes up PS6's pricing, I can see a cheaper alternative entering the market.

 

[GHG]

Tencent or Valve.

I'd love for apple to have a serious go at the space because of the synergy they would be able to bring with apple music and apple studios, but can't see it happening because they are so reluctant to take meaningful risks these days.

 

[Ozzie666]

I really doubt it, Microsoft had deep pockets and almost unlimited reasources. Not sure which big company would dare to try, it's a turbulent industry. I could imagine Steam continuing to expand their audience, hand helds and maybe another steam box attempt, beyond that though. Google tried already and failed. Who does that leave Samsung, Amazon and Apple? Sega (I wish)

 

[GHG]

I really doubt it, Microsoft had deep pockets and almost unlimited reasources. Not sure which big company would dare to try, it's a turbulent industry. I could imagine Steam continuing to expand their audience, hand helds and maybe another steam box attempt, beyond that though. Google tried already and failed. Who does that leave Samsung, Amazon and Apple? Sega (I wish)

Money isn't the only thing that matters in a creative industry.

 

[Sintoid]

Nah or Sega

 

[RoboFu]

No one will ever make another " console " that ship has sailed. It would be something like valve making pc games run on anything and at some point even your basic tv will have the hardware needed to play games

The future really is an app on all your devices.

 

[Badlucktroll]

Sony with its $799 ps6
edit: and its 80 dollar games

 

[ClanOfNone]

Sega, NOW is the time for Dreamcast 2.0.

I’m patiently waiting for whatever the next big iteration of the Steamdeck will be.

 

[Cyberpunkd]

Sure, with enough money. It's not an impossible market to break into, though a very difficult one. I think more likely than not though they'd screw up and fail.

 

[spons]

Valve could, but I don't know if they want.

 

[DenchDeckard]

I hope so. Maybe Apple or Valve but honestly I think most companies will now leave it to companies like Asus. Consoles are clearly dying. If consoles are going to cost 600 Dollars minimum next gen I think the market has gone.

 

[Cakeboxer]

The real question is, could anyone fill the void in the lifes of the console warriors?

 

[Sonik]

Consoles are dying but if it were to be another one it would definitely be the Chinese who are trying to take over every industry nowadays so I'm between Tencent and none

 

[Astray]

Backcompat being the norm means that any new contender will have to fight not only Sony and Nintendo's newest stuff, but also need to have like 10,000 games from the off to be able to match them in terms of library size, and even then, the switching costs (emotional and financial) will be massive (just look at how much backlash Epic Games got, and they give quality free games every week).

People are not ready for this convo, but Microsoft doubling down on Xbox over and over despite massive repeated failures that would sink any other platform holder has actually created a huge, HUGE entry barrier for any new company to step in with their own consoles segment (I personally think this is one of the reasons why they did it).

Maybe if we go to cloud, but that will still favor the incumbent because they have the biggest IP.

 

[Skifi28]

Consoles are dying but if it were to be another one it would definitely be the Chinese who are trying to take over every industry nowadays so I'm between Tencent and none

The future is here! Get your Polystation while there's still stock!

 

[Sonik]

The future is here! Get your Polystation while there's still stock!

Nah these fuckers know what they're doing, they'll sell their first console at ridiculously low prices exploiting the enormous greed of the Western/Japanese alternatives to successfully enter the market Xiaomi/Huawei style and then use their huge cash deposits to buy a bunch of developers. But again, I doubt it's worth the effort, the console business is dying

 

[pudel]

Who needs a console (which is just a crippled pc owned by a megacorp) when you can have a PC.

 

[possumarmada]

I could see Valve stepping in with Steam OS and grabbing 10% of the market.

 

[dragonyeuw]

I'd like to see Valve do the 'Steam Box' but they would probably sell it directly via their own storefront vs b & m retailers.

 

[Sonik]

I could see Valve stepping in with Steam OS and grabbing 10% of the market.

Is that even a console though? It's just a PC with better ease of use

 

[mdkirby]

Wanted to vote for valve and tencent, only allowed one vote tho, so it went to tencent, given valve is basically a steam box and there’s a blurring of lines between pc and console.

Tencent have the resources, and domestic demand, and national interest and support in doing so as China expand their foot in the door in entertainment and the games industry. It’d likely be a closed ecosystem still, which fits with console philosophy…in part because they’d need tight controls on domestic market.

 

[DeltaPolarBear]

You don't need infinite money to beat Sony, And Sony isn't even that strong. I expect either Amazon, Apple or Google to be able to give it a shot. But they NEED Xbox to truly exit. Until then there is nothing to gain a foothold on.

I really doubt it, Microsoft had deep pockets and almost unlimited reasources. Not sure which big company would dare to try, it's a turbulent industry. I could imagine Steam continuing to expand their audience, hand helds and maybe another steam box attempt, beyond that though. Google tried already and failed. Who does that leave Samsung, Amazon and Apple? Sega (I wish)

The infinite money is what doomed Xbox. Xbox never had to ever pull its own weight so it never learned how. All that the extra money just lifesupport that kept the organs functioning but the patient is long dead.

Sony is not a Genius, they fail all the time. Xbox just failed MORE. I fully expect a newcomer to challenge Sony.

 

[Ozzie666]

Money isn't the only thing that matters in a creative industry.

Obviously. But even with deep pockets and buying studios left and right, they still struggle with games. Who on earth has access to a creative gaming development team? it's about the games. But either way even Sega has stated, to enter the race you need a significant amount of cash to survive. Putting out a box for 3rd parties, isn't enough.

 

[EDMIX]

Tencent - Because of their growing portfolio of teams and China becoming a massive player in the console realm.

Valve...maybe. I know this is a big one many might pick, but its hard to see how they might, being a launcher and a store, doesn't 100% mean they legally can make a console and just put those games on the platform by default or something, so they'd deal with a some legal stuff, BUT if they are able to make a home console, make some smart purchases like a few publishers or a some solid teams, roll out Half Life 3, L4D3, TF3, I think they have chance.

but people need to remember, if having PC, like even an OS was so simply to just put that content on console, MS would did that shit fucking generations ago lol IF MS, a company that owns the whole OS wasn't able to do this, I doubt Valve would be able to make some console and then have all Steam games work on it or something (it sounds more like a legal thing then a tech thing imho)

 

[Unknown Soldier]

Since Nintendo exists there is no "void" and the whole premise of this thread is stupid

 

[Von Hugh]

Since Nintendo exists there is no "void" and the whole premise of this thread is stupid

In which parallel universe does Nintendo make performance consoles?

 

[Mr.Phoenix]

I doubt it.

The issue is that only two types of consoles are needed. The type Nintendo has, a handheld/mobile console, which is typically portable and has lower power. And the type Sony has.

Anyone getting into the market would have to be trying to take market share from one of those two bases.

Nintendo, Sega, and Microsoft have failed in the market in which PlayStation thrives because PlayStation owns that market. And Sony has failed in the market Nintendo thrives in.

 

[BlackTron]

Since Nintendo exists there is no "void" and the whole premise of this thread is stupid

Indeed two is enough. Sony is moving in on Nintendo's style with Astro-Bot. Nintendo is moving in on Sony's style with a system that will play modern games without your eyes bleeding. Their stances are going to get more like Sega vs Nintendo or Sony vs MS in the next few years.

 

[Xyphie]

I think consoles in a traditional sense is now a legacy business which only continues to exist because the entrenched companies in the space have a moat and interest in it continuing to exist, I don't think a console platform could be built from scratch if it doesn't already exist, it would be like trying to outcompete Apple or Android in the smartphone space. Any competition will come from a disruption of that entrenched moat.

Disruption will come from either cost and/or convenience, e.g. streaming gets good and/or cheap enough for the masses, or Apple leveraging their massive install base of iPhones with something like display-casting or a dock to the TV and getting more traditional games on the App Store.

 

[hemo memo]

Why is Tencent there twice?

 

[Darsxx82]

No, nobody. XBOX has "survived" because it achieved successes that gave it relevant brand power (very relevant in the USA), created the first party structure and necessary relationships..... and has the support of the top 1-2 company with the greatest value in the world closely associated with the video game and OS industry.

The days where you just needed to put some hardware on the market and buy some exclusive third parties to be an option ended decades ago.

Today exclusive third parties it's not at all a possibility., but for a new competitor without an established user base, are impossible.

You need a large block of first-party Studios to make yourself stand out, and today neither Aplle, nor Valve, nor Google etc... nobody has that.

You would need someone who decided to invest HUGE amounts of billons and billons of money in a first party structure, a team for hardware and software engineers, relationships with Third Party, logistics... for at least 15 years with the risk that you will just end up throwing it all away the investment when you see that you can't do anything with the power of brand, media and social support like a PS console or Nintento.

Therefore, No, there is no possibility of a new competitor in the console market. More when the data says that it has been hitting its ceiling for 3 generations and hardware manufacturers are needing selling games on PC and the cloud to amortize increasingly expensive and lengthy game developments.

PS. Valve will never release a "console". In any case, products where you can play Steam games (steamMachine) and, according to yourself, that can no longer be considered a console.

 

[Parazels]

Sony messes up PS6's pricing, I can see a cheaper alternative entering the market.

If PS6 costs $699 and already offers THOUSANDS of old, current and new games,
how do you imagine the "alternative"?

 

[Parazels]

If consoles are going to cost 600 Dollars minimum next gen I think the market has gone.

PS3 (three) sold like hot cakes for this price in 2007.

 

[Schmendrick]

Could? A lot of them, monetary and tech-wise speaking.
Would? None of them. Not nearly enough margin in that business. Especially if you have to claw up your way against established competition.

That is if we`re talking about the classic walled garden approach.

 

[M1chl]

Given how much you need to spend to be able to do so + do SDK, documentation for devs and so on, probably only chance is companies which are already doing it to some capacity, like Valve, Epic, etc.

I don't think that MS would sell Xbox, given that it is bound to their Direct X ecosystem, patents and so on. Also they would rather kill their divisions, then sell it

 

[SweetTooth]

I hope so. Maybe Apple or Valve but honestly I think most companies will now leave it to companies like Asus. Consoles are clearly dying. If consoles are going to cost 600 Dollars minimum next gen I think the market has gone.

What kind of logic is this? Consoles are dying and the only alternative now is more expensive Steam deck and PC.

 

[Mibu no ookami]

Realistically only Tencent and that's due to access to the Chinese market and how much easier it would be for them to acquire Chinese studios.

If Apple bought T2, they'd have to make the sports games multiplatform or risk losing the licensing and GTA and Red Dead would not be enough to keep them afloat as a console manufacturer. They'd have to buy a lot more than that. And is things currently stand they're already looking at antitrust lawsuits that might break them apart.

 

[nightmare-slain]

Apple or Valve have the best shot. Apple has fuck you money and loyal fans so anything they put out is pretty much guaranteed to sell. Valve is rich enough to do it and doesn’t need to answer to shareholders. Both would pose a threat to Sony.

Valve is kinda half way there. They have their own store and the Steam Deck is like a more powerful Switch. They should create a traditional console and start creating or buying exclusive games.

Apple is similar. All they’d need to do is make an Apple TV like device but more powerful and have it be able to run iOS games and macOS.

 

[Rentahamster]

Second coming of SEGA let's fucking go

 

[Maddoxswe]

what void ?

 

[PeteBull]

Second coming of SEGA let's fucking go

Console like dreamcast with all its amazing games/exclusives and power of current gen would slay ezpz.

 

[Mr.Phoenix]

Indeed two is enough. Sony is moving in on Nintendo's style with Astro-Bot. Nintendo is moving in on Sony's style with a system that will play modern games without your eyes bleeding. Their stances are going to get more like Sega vs Nintendo or Sony vs MS in the next few years.

That will never happen. There will always be differences between mobile-based and tethered-based hardware. Same way there will always be a difference between tethered-based consoles and a desktop PC.

The day that difference stops to exist is when we are no longer advancing technologically and you can fit a 4090 class PC in a 30W mobile handheld.

No, nobody. XBOX has "survived" because it achieved successes that gave it relevant brand power (very relevant in the USA), created the first party structure and necessary relationships..... and has the support of the top 1-2 company with the greatest value in the world closely associated with the video game and OS industry.

Xbox survived because they had a massive treasure chest. Don't get that twisted. Only a company(s) like them, with the kinda money they have, has a chance in hell at dethroning Sony from the home console segment. Fortunately for Sony, MS are also stupid.

The days where you just needed to put some hardware on the market and buy some exclusive third parties to be an option ended decades ago.

It didn't end, never has. It carried sony at the beginning and carried Xbox too, you really shouldn't just look at the fallacy of MS actions and use that to paint an entire narrative.

Today exclusive third parties it's not at all a possibility., but for a new competitor without an established user base, are impossible.

Its still happening, albeit now the games come to PC and consoles, because I believe its become clear that both markets do not cannibalize each other. But more importantly, it happens in a very subtle way with consoles too. You don't see games that come to PlayStation/Xbox typically go to Nintendo platforms, and releasing for PlayStation these days is almost as good as it being a console exclusive, even when they are also releasing on Xbox with how dominant sony is in certain regions or how some devs outright skip Xbox, even without the need for a money-hat.

You need a large block of first-party Studios to make yourself stand out, and today neither Aplle, nor Valve, nor Google etc... nobody has that.

I also disagree with this, what you need, are like 3-5 stand-out games. And the trust or expectation from consumers that you can output stuff like that every generation. Basically, you need an identity. Eg. MS has the largest assembled number of studios under one publisher in gaming history. EVER. And look at all the good that has done for them.

Games, sell hardware. People seem to forget that it is and has always been that simple.

You would need someone who decided to invest HUGE amounts of billons and billons of money in a first party structure, a team for hardware and software engineers, relationships with Third Party, logistics... for at least 15 years with the risk that you will just end up throwing it all away the investment when you see that you can't do anything with the power of brand, media and social support like a PS console or Nintento.

I agree with this, but I don't think its that hard to do, at least not money-wise. It might be hard catching lightning in a bottle though, cause that is what you would need to do with at least one or two games on your platform. Eg. (sorry for using MS again, but they are such an easy reference point of what not to do) MS spent over $80B acquiring studios in the space of 4 years.

They could have built, marketed and shipped 20 unique IPs, and even acquire one or two popular IPs there and make it their own, with a quarter of that money. MS is a good example of having money to throw at the problem, but lacking the brains to do anything with it.

Therefore, No, there is no possibility of a new competitor in the console market. More when the data says that it has been hitting its ceiling for 3 generations and hardware manufacturers are needing selling games on PC and the cloud to amortize increasingly expensive and lengthy game developments.

Apple can do it. Just saying. So can Samsung.

 

[Fess]

Valve

They’re actually very close already through SteamOS and Steam Deck, just needs another go with stationary Steam machines. I have a docked Deck and to me it feels exactly like a console.

 

[cireza]

what void ?

The one in your Playstation wallet.

 

[reinking]

I think a few companies could come into the market and do well. Their goals has to be to do well and not to come in and dominate it. IMO, that is one of Microsoft’s biggest issues. They could have built on previous successes but instead chose to try and take over the market at all costs. You can’t buy enough loyalty to win. You have to organically develop a relationship with gamers by providing what they want. Good games.

 

[Natsuko]

Why not? If someone has enough money and also understands the console market. Money was not Microsoft's problem. Bad decisions - probably at management level - have ruined the Xbox brand for years. Microsoft has stumbled from blunder to blunder. At some point, even with a fat petty cash fund, this becomes a problem. Some have tried to gain a foothold in the industry. A few people in fancy business suits who maybe don't even touch games and just want to print money are just not enough.

Apple has also fallen flat on its face with its service. They had no idea where to actually develop it. They simply handed out money with a watering can but apparently didn't understand the market. If you want to throw money away, maybe you should go to a strip club and throw it at a dancer. A successful business model does not live on money alone. Things like vision are also part of it.